What Should the Wizards Should Do with the 5th Pick?

[pancakes3]

Jamison: 22 pts, 9 reb, 2 assists, 20.6 PER 11.6 mil
Butler: 21 pts, 6 reb, 4 assists, 18.8 PER 9.8 mil
total: 42 pts, 15 reb, 6 assists, average PER 19.7, 21.4 million dollars

Hedo: 17 pts, 5 reb, 5 assists, 14.8 PER, 7.4 mil
Lewis: 18 pts, 6 reb, 2.5 assists, 16.8 PER 18.9 mil
total: 35 pts, 11 reb, 7.5 assists, average PER 15.8, 26.3 million dollars

less production less efficiently for more money.

[Kanyewest]

I have to disagree with the notion that EG is inferior to building a team in Orlando. The biggest difference was the fact that Orlando won the lottery in 2004 and got to pick Dwight Howard. People also forget the fact that Orlando traded Tracy McGrady for Steve Francis and Mobley. They ended up trading Mobley for a washed up Doug Christie. They traded Trevor Ariza for practically nothing.

Simply put, it's easier to build a team around Dwight Howard, who has missed 3 game in his entire career.

Hedo and lewis are better than any of our front court players even on defense...I wonder how EG allowed that to happen? Lewis>>> jamison and hedo>>>caron. I have been saying this before the season started and now that u see it with your own eyes against lebron...you see why organizAtion isn't going anywhere with EG and polin making longterm personnel decisions. Magic are dominating cavs with gortat in the game. Why because they aren't undersized or below average defensively at any and I repeat any of their starting positions. Called smart longterm GM while our GM trades for undersizEd players...hopeless.

The defense between Jamison and Butler and Turkoglu and Lewis is very comparable. It's also Dwight Howard who protects the paint (and even Gortat to a lesser extent who was able to block LeBron James twice in game 3) which makes them look like they are better defenders. Orlando also has a MUCH better backcourt than the Wizards, even with Jameer Nelson out of the lineup. Rafer Alston, Pietrus, and Lee are pretty good two way players.

The Magic are not dominating when Gortat is in the game (who had a +/- of -2 in game 3), he is simply able to hold the fort down when Howard has been in foul trouble. He is adequate as a backup center but the Magic would easily be down 0-3 without Howard.

[closg00]

We worked-out Lester Hudson for the second year in-a-row, I wonder if he might be our 2nd round pick this-year?

[sfam]

I think the reason that Memphis wont take Rubio is not because of his agent's threats, but because they are really high on Thabeet, according to a couple sources.

If we were able to do Blatche + 5th pick for Rubio, that would almost make up for the Lottery.

I think we'd all like that just as much as we'd all hate the JM +5th pick. I just don't see that happening.

But, um, we do sort of have another asset. Our second round pick (#32) is almost as good as a late first rounder, meaning it does at least have minimal value. Anyone thing a Blatche + 5th + 32nd for Rubio is a possibility?

[hands11]

Called being a passionate fan that hates seeing his arch nemesis and divisional rivals in championships. And the magic are ten years ahead of us...just one step away from being a dynasty while I have been hoping for the wiz to come close to a dynasty in jordan days nearly seven years ago when I created this login 7 years ago...and we have only slid backwards because of poor gms moves and his lack of ability to bring in two way players in free agency.

Its called hardcore fan disappointment due to low basketball IQ of owner GM and the most of the WIZ think tank... US the posters. Obviously ernie doesn't have a clue...we know wizard players are here...so if u are a helpless fan...your only hope is that someone influential in wiz organization decides to think differently about wizArds longterm core and DC being a champion as opposed to the clippers of the east reputation since they have only been to the second round once in last 30 years and only won two games embarassed. Grand achievement for the last 30 years...that's pathetic...guess I have higher expectations.

Dude. You are so off base I don't even know where to start.

There are a 1000 forks in the road that can be taken so things can play out all kinds of different ways but your missing the forest for the tree. EG has been a solid GM giving the situation he was placed in. This team had a lot of digging out to do and they have been doing it since MJ showed up. Last year was messed up but it needed to happen so we could get ride of EJ. We wouldn't have sucked that bad if that strange combination of events didn't happen. No GA with no AD to back him up, No Haywood with no Etan to back him up and McGee being in his first year and changing coaches during the season. It was the timing of the combination that made us look a lot worse then we are.

But even in all that mess, we got some good work done. We traded and older breaking down AD for a young talented prospect who will be a solid back up PG for years to come. We rested GA and allowed him to recover more slowly and learn/mature by watching from the sidelines. DS ended up out of the starting line up so DMAC got a ton of PT and he greatly improved. It could have taken 3 years for him to get that much time of the court.

So now have taken the next - huge - important step in building a top contender. We have added a top notch coach. So now we have vet top tier talent and a top tier coach and we have some very nice young prospects. One of which is a freakishly talented 7-1 kid named McGee that we drafted last year. That's a good place to be for a franchise. We have some cap issue but our owner is stepping up and not making that an issue. That's huge.

Now if your measuring success as a team that has won it all, then your barking up the wrong tree since that involves a good bit of luck and that's looking backward. There is an old saying and it goes like this... You measure your progress against yourself. Don't compare yourself to others. By this standard, I see our progress. Sure at the end of the day, we will be playing those other teams and will be compared to them but that doesn't mean EG hasn't done a nice job transitioning this team and franchise from what it was when he got here. It's wasn't only a player problem, it was a franchise structural problem. Now is the window to start to put it all together.

Now the structure has been corrected and he has the coach he wants - as it should have been from day one. EG has been operating with one hand tied behind his back. What GM doesn't get to pick his own coach over a 6-7 year period. As our GM he has also brought in a ton a talent since he showed up. GA, CB, AJ for starters. Behind that he swung for the fences a few times with Blatche, McGee, OP and Nick. I believe the reward for those risks has yet to be fully realized either by the talent they show while playing for us or in the players they bring in a future trade.

You can't the blame Gils injury or EFJs coaching and rotations on EG. One was bad luck and the other was Abe. Now EG finally is running more of the show. He has his coach and he has his vet core, young talent, draft pick and expiring contracts. Correcting the franchise management structure issues is a long term gain that sets us on solid footing for years to come. Now all all this is going to be put on display. This rebuilding was never going to be a 2-3 year plan, it was always a longer term project. I tried to tamper people expectations when they got all excited when we started going to the playoffs. We were never going to go far until we got ride of EJ and the Owner, GM, Coach structure was implemented. 20 years of sucking and poor front office organization and personnel isn't erased by snapping your fingers. GM was just doing the best he could until the day came that he could correct the organizational structure. THAT JUST HAPPENED.

EG has been pretty consistent and telling us what he plans on doing. He wants to see what he put together with a top coach running the show. That my friend is what we get to see next year.

We have GA, CB, AJ, DSong, Haywood with Crit, NY, DMAC, Blatche, McGee and Etan backing them up. That's a solid core of vets with young players who all need to step it up. With new leadership, I like the odds of seeing that happen with most if not all of them giving us solid production next year.

We have some more work to do for sure but we already have a solid team for next year.
We have at least 14 million in expiring contracts in Etan and James and we have tradeable players
if we need to consolidate talent. McGee is signed cheap until 2012 and so is Blatche.

Our biggest challenge is going to be resigning Haywood and maybe that isn't even an issue. The cap is only a problem is you have an owner who makes it a problem. Right now, Abe isn't and if we get sold to Ted, I don't think he is going to close his wallet right away either.

So right now, things look better then they have in a long long time. Now isn't the time to be down on this club. Now is the time to be pumped. The only thing holding many back is seeing GA on the court for expended time being this new awesome PG he says he wants to be. So you either believe it will happen and he is ok, or you wait to see if with your own eyes.

[eltacoman]

I think the reason that Memphis wont take Rubio is not because of his agent's threats, but because they are really high on Thabeet, according to a couple sources.

If we were able to do Blatche + 5th pick for Rubio, that would almost make up for the Lottery.

I think we'd all like that just as much as we'd all hate the JM +5th pick. I just don't see that happening.

But, um, we do sort of have another asset. Our second round pick (#32) is almost as good as a late first rounder, meaning it does at least have minimal value. Anyone thing a Blatche + 5th + 32nd for Rubio is a possibility?

im kind of getting of the Ricky Rubio bandwagan to much potential risk to give up so much
i would rather keep Blatche and draft Harden and use the high 2nd to draft Patty Mills he might turn out to be the best PG and the biggest steal in this draft
we could then buyout Mike James or trade him with Deshawn to Sac town to E Jordan

[sfam]

...So right now, things look better then they have in a long long time. Now isn't the time to be down on this club. Now is the time to be pumped. The only thing holding many back is seeing GA on the court for expended time being this new awesome PG he says he wants to be. So you either believe it will happen and he is ok, or you wait to see if with your own eyes.

Assuming Arenas comes back to at least 75% of his former offensive pizazz, and improves his decision making I pretty much agree with your entire above post - we appear to be in a great place for the reasons you state. Yes we can blame EG for taking Pecherov and the like, but really, no GM is going to be 100% on his picks - its just not gonna happen. The question of course is now what do we do? We clearly have options with the #5 and #32 pick, along with 14M in expiring. If we can get a high quality SG (or PG with Gil moving to SG) and/or a beast defender/post-up player at the PF position, I think Saunders has a decent chance of taking this team past of the second round. And again, without the luxury of picking a superstar in the draft (yes, there may be a D.Wade calibur player at #5 - finding him is the problem), the incremental approach we've been on for the past number of years is definitely the way to go.

BTW, does anyone know if we'll be making changes to our medical personnel? That might be as significant as a coaching change!

[WizarDynasty]

Jamison: 22 pts, 9 reb, 2 assists, 20.6 PER 11.6 mil
Butler: 21 pts, 6 reb, 4 assists, 18.8 PER 9.8 mil
total: 42 pts, 15 reb, 6 assists, average PER 19.7, 21.4 million dollars

Hedo: 17 pts, 5 reb, 5 assists, 14.8 PER, 7.4 mil
Lewis: 18 pts, 6 reb, 2.5 assists, 16.8 PER 18.9 mil
total: 35 pts, 11 reb, 7.5 assists, average PER 15.8, 26.3 million dollars

less production less efficiently for more money.

Ok hopefully I don't have to re educate you as to why both Jamison and Butler are undersized on defense.

Hedo's size at the small forward position makes him >>>>>than caron.

Lewis's agility makes >>>>>>defender than jamison.

Since you don't think a player should be paid for being a good defender, lets take a look at purely offensive stats. Apparently you and EG use the same logic when making longterm personnel decisions.

http://www.82games.com/0809/COM4S0.HTM

The chart is just presented shows that, when wizards go against good teams Caron shoots .433 percent (while taking 15.4shots) from field and .27 percent from three (while taking 3 attempts--this is horrible and translate to mean caron is shooting .40 2point range when he takes 3's--Hedo shoots .60 from 2pt range when he takes his 3 pointers--against the Playoff teams ). This is how caron performs against winning teams. Caron is normally assisted 40 percent of the time which means some create an easy open shot for him.

Against average teams, Caron shoots .458 from field (while taking 15.7=same as good) and .32 Percen (while taking 3 attempts) from three point range.
He improves his production against average teams. Assisted 44 percent of the time.

Against Poor teams Caron .463 Percent fromt eh field (while taking 18 shots from the field--more than avg and good) and .32 percent from three(3 attempts. 40 percent of the time.

Does shooting .433 percent from field help a team win games or lose games? How often does
Washington hold good teams below .433 percent? Now Caron normally takes

Now lets look at Hedo...hedo shoots .416 percent from the field (while taking 13.7 shots). This is a .13 drop in terms of basketball talk from caron's .433 but hedo also takes 2 less shots a game. Hedo shoots and astounding .396 percent from three point land while taking 5 attempts. this blows caron out of the water.( which is will explain shortly--just think .60 from 2 pt range right now) Not only does Hedo kill playoff teams (good teamas are playoff teams by the way) with his three pointer....The extra two shots that Caron takes for 2 pointers...Hedo takes 3 pointers and hits them at a way higher rate giving Magic 3 pts instead of two. Caron shoots them at .27 percent against good teams...--(does any know what .27 from three point range translate into from 2pt range) I will go over at the end. Hedo shoots them at close to .40 percent against good teams. This is a tremendous difference offensively. These two players are not on the same level. The .13 field goal percentage that caron shoots from the field...is blow away by how poorly he shoots his 3 point attempts against good teams. Hedo seems to shoot a better 3Pt percentage when going against good teams.
Against average teams, hedo takes 12.9 shots from teh field shooting .392 percent which is alot lower than caron's shooting .458 from the field and against average teams, hedo shoots .347 from3 pt range. Could we say that Hedo is tanking games against average teams and boosting his performance against good teams based on this website data http://www.82games.com/0809/COM4S0.HTM.
Well that's what the results say.
Against poor teams, Hedo shoots .434 from the field and .336 from 3 point range. That is definitely suspect for a player to play worst against poor teams unless something else is going on. Either way, Caron stats blow up against teams with poor records...he jumps from. .433 to .458 against poor teams while his 3 pt shooting stays same at .32 percent.
Now, after crunching all the data...the truth of hte matter is that you get a high seed in the playoffs by beating good teams. Hedo is helping his team beat good teams, his production drops off against poor and average teams but he steps his game up to beat the teams that orlando needs in order get a high seeding. Caron's stats show that he performs well against mediocre competition but when it comes to going against good teams, his field goal percentage is .433 percent and he shoots .27 from 3 pt range. Hedo boost his 3 pts shooting percentage to nearly .40 percent against good teams which more than makes up for his low field goal percentage of .416. (by the way shooting .40 from three point range means you are shooting .60 from 2pt range very big jump from .433
So all in all, EG looks at your data (you know just points per game for an entire season rather than what I just did and hands out contracts based on points scored instead of looking at how a player performs against GOOD TEAMS.
The whole point of playoff seeding is that if you are good team, you are supposed to beat AVERAGE teams..IF you are good team..and play well and beat other good teams...beating other good teams makes you a contender. If wizards shot .433 from the floor against good teams...they are not going to beat many teams if the pace is slowed down..especially if a teams shoots higher percentage than .433. Caron's stats show that he can't help you from 3 pts range and if allow the other team to shoot above .433 percent...you lose the game. AGain i will translate what shooting .27 from three point range means in terms of 2pointers.

ThIs is how defense works bud. If Caron shoots .433 against good teams, we better be bad ****' defense team and keep the other team below .433 in a seven game series. If caron shot .55 from the field against good teams..then we could hold the team to .49 field goal percentage and still win the game. We know that caron doesn't hold the man he is guarding below .50 so if he is shooting .433 that means his man is holding him below .50 fg%. I hope that makes sense to everyone. Good teams hold caron to .433. If Caron is not holding his man below .433 he is losing the game for us. all teams are good in playoffs and this team and caron are poor defenders so we know he isn't going to hold anyone below .433. Caron's only hope to being an assets on this team is shooting a high field goal percentage to offset what he allows on defense. Caron has never shot above .50 for his career. Its ok to shoot a low percentage if you can keep the guy you are guarding below .50. Caron never does that and I showed you the stats. EG hoped that the teams as a whole shoots way above .50 from teh field during the playoffs.....and by shooting a high field goal percentage...another team couldn't match our field goal percentage. It just shows how naive EG and teh think Tank are when it comes to winning the game based on overall field goal percentage.
Again, if Caron was a great three point shooter against good teams, maybe he could get away with being undersized and not being a great defender. But Caron shoots a horrible .433 percent from 2point range field. Most teams will not win a game if their overall field goal percentage from teh floor is .433. Hedo shoots and if you translate .40 from 3pt range into 2 pts. .4 *15 pts equals= 6 pts. Hedo shoots a horrible .416 from 2pt range...but he shoots his 3pointers at converted .60 percent from point range. When you combined hedo converted .60 field goal percentage from his 3 pointers with his poor .416 from 2 pointers...it boosts him way past caron.

What is the percentage that hedo would need to shoot in order to get 6 pts on five 2pts shots?
Remember we are talking about 2 pointers if hedo only had five shots.
Hedo would have to shoot 3/5 which equals .60 percent from 2 pts range in order to match 2/5 from three point range but 2/5 from three equal 6 points just like 3/5 from 2 point range equals 6 points. So even though hedo shoots .40 from 3 pts range..he is actually shooting .60 percent from 2 pts range because he scored 6pts on five shots.
2/5 Three pointers equals six points===just like 3/5 Two pointers equals six points.
More importantly Caron is shooting .433 from 2pt range..while Hedo is boosting his teams field goal percentage to .60 whenever he shoot from 3 point range. any team that is shooting .60 from the field is going to win most of the time. A team shooting .433 from the field against good teams is going to lose.
Hopefully the true think tank types will understand this data and go to

http://www.82games.com/0809/COM4S0.HTM
And understand that the players who shoot high field goal percentages against good teams...***factoring 3pt field goal percentages*** this is how you figure out if a player is producing.

So finally...HOW is a player producing AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WIzards fans....i pray that the talented posters will get this and use this in their analysis because the analysis here has been poor and hopefully EG will glance at this board and figure out how dumb he has been in using points per game as away of giving out contracts..instead of using field goal percentage against GOOD teams which is why we are stilled cursed...
And i haven't even discussed how being undersized means a team has to double team.

I said i would do this at the end.
if caron had five 3pt shots and shot .27 what does that translate into in terms of 2 pointers. If caron made all five 3 pointers, he would have scored 15 points. So what's .27 percent out of 15. You whip out a calculator and multiple .27 times 15 and you get 4.05. So 27 percent of 15 points equals 4 points.

the key here is that caron could have taken 2 pointers instead of 3 pointers.

If caron only have five shots and he got 4 points out of those five shots...how many 2 pointers would caron have needed to make. 2/5.

So that's the point. Right now Caron shooting .27 from three point range means he is shooting .40 from 2 point range...which is still pretty poor.

What would caron need to shoot from 3 point range in order for it to equal .50 from 2pt range.

Ok Lets see 5/10 equals 50 percent. So on ten shots caron scores 10 points. If caron took ten 3 pointers, how many would he need to hit in order to get 10 points. He would need to hit 3 out 10 in order to get 10 points..Maybe 4/10...but 4/10 from 3 point range gives you 12 points. While 5/10 from 2 pt range gives you 10 points. So as long as player is shooting close .40 from 3 point range..he is shooting higher than .50 from the field. This connects back to Hedo shooting .40 from 3pt range against GOOD teams. This is aimed at educating EG so we have a chance at making good offensive decisions in the future..cuz right now...he is stuck in point per game like the quote.
Ok
So if caron took 5 shots and only got 4 points..how many shots did he make? He made 2 out of five shots. His translated 3 point Percentage to 2 point percentage is 2/5 shots. 2/5 means that caron is shooting .40 percent.

[AgentOvechkin08]

Wiretap has the Clippers possibly shopping the 1st pick....\

I wonder what it would take to move up. Would we be willing to take on one of their HORRIBLE contracts?

[closg00]

Wiretap has the Clippers possibly shopping the 1st pick....\

I wonder what it would take to move up. Would we be willing to take on one of their HORRIBLE contracts?

That's what I was wondering, what would it take to pry Griffin or Rubio away from where they will be drafted?....or how aggressively will Rubio and Griffin be pursued via trade?

[pancakes3]

an exercise in eFG with FT accounted for using the stats against "good teams" :

Team Player FGa Fg% 3pA 3p% Fta Ft% Pts Ast'd Reb Ast T/o Blk Stl

ORL Lewis 14.0 .431 7.1 .360 3.8 85% 17.9 59% 6.1 2.4 2.3 0.6 1.0

ORL Turkoglu 13.7 .416 5.1 .396 5.6 75% 17.6 42% 4.7 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.8

WAS Butler 15.4 .433 3.0 .279 5.7 86% 19.0 40% 5.3 4.2 3.2 0.4 1.5

WAS Jamison 16.5 .457 3.5 .386 4.5 78% 20.0 76% 7.7 2.0 1.7 0.3 1.0

you take the field goal attempted * 2, add it to 3pa * 3, and then add it to fta. then you take the actual points scored and divide it by how many he could have had.

Lewis: 0.337
Turkoglu: 0.364
Butler: 0.4175
Jamison: 0.4137

oh and with more rebounds - a signal of "defense". the fact that rashard lewis is 6'10 and still can't pull down more boards than either Jamison or Butler is more of an indictment than praise.

[vincecarter4pres]

Would something like Yi, the 11th overall pick and Trenton Hassell for the 5th overal and either Stevenson or Songaila work if you guys don't move up?

[WizarDynasty]

an exercise in eFG with FT accounted for using the stats against "good teams" :

Team Player FGa Fg% 3pA 3p% Fta Ft% Pts Ast'd Reb Ast T/o Blk Stl

ORL Lewis 14.0 .431 7.1 .360 3.8 85% 17.9 59% 6.1 2.4 2.3 0.6 1.0

ORL Turkoglu 13.7 .416 5.1 .396 5.6 75% 17.6 42% 4.7 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.8

WAS Butler 15.4 .433 3.0 .279 5.7 86% 19.0 40% 5.3 4.2 3.2 0.4 1.5

WAS Jamison 16.5 .457 3.5 .386 4.5 78% 20.0 76% 7.7 2.0 1.7 0.3 1.0

you take the field goal attempted * 2, add it to 3pa * 3, and then add it to fta. then you take the actual points scored and divide it by how many he could have had.

Lewis: 0.337
Turkoglu: 0.364
Butler: 0.4175
Jamison: 0.4137


oh and with more rebounds - a signal of "defense". the fact that rashard lewis is 6'10 and still can't pull down more boards than either Jamison or Butler is more of an indictment than praise.

There is already a stat that is a better measure of defensive performance.

Its called Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production

http://www.82games.com/0809/08WAS11.HTM

Hopefully if EG looks at that stats instead of defensive rebounds, he will make better decisions in the future in terms of getting players from free agency that have real proven defensive talent. allowing your opponent to shoot an average of .539 from the field while you only shoot .507 per 48 tell alot more info that looking at the number of defensive rebounds jamison was able to collect during one of the rare times the opponent he was guarding actually missed.

so again, if

Code: Select all

Jamison's 48-Minute Production by Position
Pos FGA eFG% FTA iFG Reb Ast T/O Blk PF Pts PER*
SF 22.1 0.495 6.5 32% 9.6 3.5 1.6 0.3 3.4    27.0    22.2 
PF 22.5 0.507 7.1 34% 11.5 2.2 2.0 0.4 3.3   28.1 23.2 
Jamison's Counterpart 48-Minute Production
Pos FGA eFG% FTA iFG Reb Ast T/O Blk PF Pts PER*
SF 15.6 .537 4.3 24% 6.6 3.4 1.5 1.1 3.7 19.9 16.7 
PF 16.6 .539 4.0 38% 9.8 2.7 2.6 1.3 5.4 20.9 17.8 
 

Jamison takes more thans his opponents but shoots a lower percentage. So even though jamison scores more points his opponents score more efficiently than jamison. So if Jamison's opponents took as many shots as jamison, jamison would lose the game point blank. Now if jamison were holding his opponents to a lower efficiency then Jamison is actually playing defense.
So this stat I am presenting blows your defensive rebounding stat out the water.
If you wanna know who is playing defensive, go the site--Grunfeld I am talking to you specifically!! and scroll down to half way point to look at the stat that might save your career and this franchise.

http://www.82games.com/0809/08WAS11.HTM

i referencing and look at the opponents efg per 48. Per would lead you to believe that Jamison was winning the game when in fact, he is far less efficient than his opponents because Jamison doesn't play defense. If jamison efficiency was higher than his opponents on offense then we could say Jamison's offensive efficiency was winning the game.
Its all about efficient production...NOT PURE production people. If everyone is out performing their player in terms of efficiency then we win the game if not we lose. This stat shows that jamison is not forcing missing because his opponent shoots an even higher field goal percentage on offense than he does.

[LyricalRico]

Would something like Yi, the 11th overall pick and Trenton Hassell for the 5th overal and either Stevenson or Songaila work if you guys don't move up?

Oh most definitely. I think NJ could get more for Yi but if the offered that we'd take it.

[DaRealHibachi]

You know what guys... WizD is right...

For example... WizD's own highly touted Tayshaun Prince is not a good defender, b/c all the SF's he guards have a higher eFG% than him...

http://www.82games.com/0708/07LAL9C.HTM

[WizarDynasty]

You know what guys... WizD is right...

For example... WizD's own highly touted Tayshaun Prince is not a good defender, b/c all the SF's he guards have a higher eFG% than him...

http://www.82games.com/0708/07LAL9C.HTM

Its true... Tayshaun held is opponent to .483 last years..

http://www.82games.com/0708/07DET11C.HTM
this year it got worse and went to .505. He is getting worse at guarding s/f ...so i am willing to admit when stats prove me wrong. But he is still a better defender than Butler...and Butler allows an even higher efg than Tayshaun. click the link just below this line to see what i am talking about.
The 06-07 Tayshaun was a beast on defense..holding the opposing s/f to .444....He had it at one point.
http://www.82games.com/0607/06DET9C.HTM
Check the link but he is starting to slowly fall off. A player that's falling off is not going to help you win a championship.

Looking at Ariza he is actually improving because his numbers are even better than what they were last year. http://www.82games.com/0809/08LAL7.HTM
he shot .511 from field and held s/f to .488

[pancakes3]

an exercise in eFG with FT accounted for using the stats against "good teams" :

Team Player FGa Fg% 3pA 3p% Fta Ft% Pts Ast'd Reb Ast T/o Blk Stl

ORL Lewis 14.0 .431 7.1 .360 3.8 85% 17.9 59% 6.1 2.4 2.3 0.6 1.0

ORL Turkoglu 13.7 .416 5.1 .396 5.6 75% 17.6 42% 4.7 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.8

WAS Butler 15.4 .433 3.0 .279 5.7 86% 19.0 40% 5.3 4.2 3.2 0.4 1.5

WAS Jamison 16.5 .457 3.5 .386 4.5 78% 20.0 76% 7.7 2.0 1.7 0.3 1.0

you take the field goal attempted * 2, add it to 3pa * 3, and then add it to fta. then you take the actual points scored and divide it by how many he could have had.

Lewis: 0.337
Turkoglu: 0.364
Butler: 0.4175
Jamison: 0.4137


oh and with more rebounds - a signal of "defense". the fact that rashard lewis is 6'10 and still can't pull down more boards than either Jamison or Butler is more of an indictment than praise.

There is already a stat that is a better measure of defensive performance.

Its called Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production

http://www.82games.com/0809/08WAS11.HTM

Hopefully if EG looks at that stats instead of defensive rebounds, he will make better decisions in the future in terms of getting players from free agency that have real proven defensive talent. allowing your opponent to shoot an average of .539 from the field while you only shoot .507 per 48 tell alot more info that looking at the number of defensive rebounds jamison was able to collect during one of the rare times the opponent he was guarding actually missed.

so again, if

Code: Select all

Jamison's 48-Minute Production by Position
Pos FGA eFG% FTA iFG Reb Ast T/O Blk PF Pts PER*
SF 22.1 0.495 6.5 32% 9.6 3.5 1.6 0.3 3.4    27.0    22.2 
PF 22.5 0.507 7.1 34% 11.5 2.2 2.0 0.4 3.3   28.1 23.2 
Jamison's Counterpart 48-Minute Production
Pos FGA eFG% FTA iFG Reb Ast T/O Blk PF Pts PER*
SF 15.6 .537 4.3 24% 6.6 3.4 1.5 1.1 3.7 19.9 16.7 
PF 16.6 .539 4.0 38% 9.8 2.7 2.6 1.3 5.4 20.9 17.8 
 

Jamison takes more thans his opponents but shoots a lower percentage. So even though jamison scores more points his opponents score more efficiently than jamison. So if Jamison's opponents took as many shots as jamison, jamison would lose the game point blank. Now if jamison were holding his opponents to a lower efficiency then Jamison is actually playing defense.
So this stat I am presenting blows your defensive rebounding stat out the water.
If you wanna know who is playing defensive, go the site--Grunfeld I am talking to you specifically!! and scroll down to half way point to look at the stat that might save your career and this franchise.

http://www.82games.com/0809/08WAS11.HTM

i referencing and look at the opponents efg per 48. Per would lead you to believe that Jamison was winning the game when in fact, he is far less efficient than his opponents because Jamison doesn't play defense. If jamison efficiency was higher than his opponents on offense then we could say Jamison's offensive efficiency was winning the game.
Its all about efficient production...NOT PURE production people. If everyone is out performing their player in terms of efficiency then we win the game if not we lose. This stat shows that jamison is not forcing missing because his opponent shoots an even higher field goal percentage on offense than he does.

first off, the defensive rebound comment was a sidebar to the original post of efg. it wasn't so much a vote of confidence for jamison/butler but rather an attempt to deepen your understanding of efg. you sketched out rudiments of it in "explaining" why Hedo's a better scorer in his 3p%'s but there was some hand-waving mathematically.

second off, i never claimed that Jamison was a good defensive pf. in fact, most on here think Jamison's a terrible defensive power forward. thus, you're not opening anyone's eyes in pointing out that Jamison allows a high efg. i think it's practically common knowledge at this point.

the claim, rather, is that Jamison's offense is adequate enough for him to be valuable to us unless presented with a real workhorse pf candidate presents himself - i.e. not trading him for marginal players like jason maxiel.

thirdly, PER is a per-minute rating and it IS an efficiency rating. player EFFICIENCY rating. it takes rebounds, blocks, and free throws into consideration whereas eFG is purely an in-game shooting metric and ignores free throws.

lastly, and repeatedly...

please offer some resolutions instead of screaming at the idiocy of others. presenting a fact that Jamison's bad defensively is only half the battle. coming up with a trade scenario that others can agree with is the other half.

[WizarDynasty]

Look we already know jamison isn't helpimg defensively. The topic is now offensive. If jamsion can't shoot a higher efg than his opponent...then he isn't winning the game for us on offense. The only way this happen is if jamison magically turns into a dominant offensive high field goal shooting powerforward. The quicker u acknowledge that jamison doesn't perform as efficiently on offense..... That's keypoint...efficiently on offense...we aren't talking about his defense...then we can begin to create realistic trades that get us results. We overpaid when we got jamison thanks eg so let's move on and recover from our loss except polin is in love with jamisons charity work and doesn't care about jamison offensive field goal efficiency...which is the most important stat in per..I don't think per even weighs a players efg compared to his opponents. But until jamison outperforms good teams with his offensive field goal efficiency per 48 he is pretty useless even on offense. Keyword is getting playerd that outperform their opponents on offensive field goal efficiency. Purely offensive comparison.

[FreeBalling]

Jamison cant be all that bad, he's 4th in Double Double vs. PF.

For some reason people love to bash the guy on this board.

I enjoy the posts BTW.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Jamison cant be all that bad, he's 4th in Double Double vs. PF.

For some reason people love to bash the guy on this board.

I enjoy the posts BTW.