pancakes3 wrote:Jamison: 22 pts, 9 reb, 2 assists, 20.6 PER 11.6 mil
Butler: 21 pts, 6 reb, 4 assists, 18.8 PER 9.8 mil
total: 42 pts, 15 reb, 6 assists, average PER 19.7, 21.4 million dollars
Hedo: 17 pts, 5 reb, 5 assists, 14.8 PER, 7.4 mil
Lewis: 18 pts, 6 reb, 2.5 assists, 16.8 PER 18.9 mil
total: 35 pts, 11 reb, 7.5 assists, average PER 15.8, 26.3 million dollars
less production less efficiently for more money.
Ok hopefully I don't have to re educate you as to why both Jamison and Butler are undersized on defense.
Hedo's size at the small forward position makes him >>>>>than caron.
Lewis's agility makes >>>>>>defender than jamison.
Since you don't think a player should be paid for being a good defender, lets take a look at purely offensive stats. Apparently you and EG use the same logic when making longterm personnel decisions.
http://www.82games.com/0809/COM4S0.HTMThe chart is just presented shows that, when wizards go against good teams Caron shoots .433 percent (while taking 15.4shots) from field and .27 percent from three (while taking 3 attempts--this is horrible and translate to mean caron is shooting .40 2point range when he takes 3's--Hedo shoots .60 from 2pt range when he takes his 3 pointers--against the Playoff teams ). This is how caron performs against winning teams. Caron is normally assisted 40 percent of the time which means some create an easy open shot for him.
Against average teams, Caron shoots .458 from field (while taking 15.7=same as good) and .32 Percen (while taking 3 attempts) from three point range.
He improves his production against average teams. Assisted 44 percent of the time.
Against Poor teams Caron .463 Percent fromt eh field (while taking 18 shots from the field--more than avg and good) and .32 percent from three(3 attempts. 40 percent of the time.
Does shooting .433 percent from field help a team win games or lose games? How often does
Washington hold good teams below .433 percent? Now Caron normally takes
Now lets look at Hedo...hedo shoots .416 percent from the field (while taking 13.7 shots). This is a .13 drop in terms of basketball talk from caron's .433 but hedo also takes 2 less shots a game. Hedo shoots and astounding .396 percent from three point land while taking 5 attempts. this blows caron out of the water.( which is will explain shortly--just think .60 from 2 pt range right now) Not only does Hedo kill playoff teams (good teamas are playoff teams by the way) with his three pointer....The extra two shots that Caron takes for 2 pointers...Hedo takes 3 pointers and hits them at a way higher rate giving Magic 3 pts instead of two. Caron shoots them at .27 percent against good teams...--(does any know what .27 from three point range translate into from 2pt range) I will go over at the end. Hedo shoots them at close to .40 percent against good teams. This is a tremendous difference offensively. These two players are not on the same level. The .13 field goal percentage that caron shoots from the field...is blow away by how poorly he shoots his 3 point attempts against good teams. Hedo seems to shoot a better 3Pt percentage when going against good teams.
Against average teams, hedo takes 12.9 shots from teh field shooting .392 percent which is alot lower than caron's shooting .458 from the field and against average teams, hedo shoots .347 from3 pt range. Could we say that Hedo is tanking games against average teams and boosting his performance against good teams based on this website data
http://www.82games.com/0809/COM4S0.HTM.
Well that's what the results say.
Against poor teams, Hedo shoots .434 from the field and .336 from 3 point range. That is definitely suspect for a player to play worst against poor teams unless something else is going on. Either way, Caron stats blow up against teams with poor records...he jumps from. .433 to .458 against poor teams while his 3 pt shooting stays same at .32 percent.
Now, after crunching all the data...the truth of hte matter is that you get a high seed in the playoffs by beating good teams. Hedo is helping his team beat good teams, his production drops off against poor and average teams but he steps his game up to beat the teams that orlando needs in order get a high seeding. Caron's stats show that he performs well against mediocre competition but when it comes to going against good teams, his field goal percentage is .433 percent and he shoots .27 from 3 pt range. Hedo boost his 3 pts shooting percentage to nearly .40 percent against good teams which more than makes up for his low field goal percentage of .416. (by the way shooting .40 from three point range means you are shooting .60 from 2pt range very big jump from .433
So all in all, EG looks at your data (you know just points per game for an entire season rather than what I just did and hands out contracts based on points scored instead of looking at how a player performs against GOOD TEAMS.
The whole point of playoff seeding is that if you are good team, you are supposed to beat AVERAGE teams..IF you are good team..and play well and beat other good teams...beating other good teams makes you a contender. If wizards shot .433 from the floor against good teams...they are not going to beat many teams if the pace is slowed down..especially if a teams shoots higher percentage than .433. Caron's stats show that he can't help you from 3 pts range and if allow the other team to shoot above .433 percent...you lose the game. AGain i will translate what shooting .27 from three point range means in terms of 2pointers.
ThIs is how defense works bud. If Caron shoots .433 against good teams, we better be bad ****' defense team and keep the other team below .433 in a seven game series. If caron shot .55 from the field against good teams..then we could hold the team to .49 field goal percentage and still win the game. We know that caron doesn't hold the man he is guarding below .50 so if he is shooting .433 that means his man is holding him below .50 fg%. I hope that makes sense to everyone. Good teams hold caron to .433. If Caron is not holding his man below .433 he is losing the game for us. all teams are good in playoffs and this team and caron are poor defenders so we know he isn't going to hold anyone below .433. Caron's only hope to being an assets on this team is shooting a high field goal percentage to offset what he allows on defense. Caron has never shot above .50 for his career. Its ok to shoot a low percentage if you can keep the guy you are guarding below .50. Caron never does that and I showed you the stats. EG hoped that the teams as a whole shoots way above .50 from teh field during the playoffs.....and by shooting a high field goal percentage...another team couldn't match our field goal percentage. It just shows how naive EG and teh think Tank are when it comes to winning the game based on overall field goal percentage.
Again, if Caron was a great three point shooter against good teams, maybe he could get away with being undersized and not being a great defender. But Caron shoots a horrible .433 percent from
2point range field. Most teams will not win a game if their overall field goal percentage from teh floor is .433. Hedo shoots and if you translate .40 from 3pt range into 2 pts. .4 *15 pts equals= 6 pts. Hedo shoots a horrible .416 from 2pt range...but he shoots his 3pointers at converted .60 percent from point range. When you combined hedo converted .60 field goal percentage from his 3 pointers with his poor .416 from 2 pointers...it boosts him way past caron.
What is the percentage that hedo would need to shoot in order to get 6 pts on five 2pts shots?
Remember we are talking about 2 pointers if hedo only had five shots.
Hedo would have to shoot 3/5 which equals .60 percent from 2 pts range in order to match 2/5 from three point range but 2/5 from three equal 6 points just like 3/5 from 2 point range equals 6 points. So even though hedo shoots .40 from 3 pts range..he is actually shooting .60 percent from 2 pts range because he scored 6pts on five shots.
2/5 Three pointers equals six points===just like 3/5 Two pointers equals six points.
More importantly Caron is shooting .433 from 2pt range..while Hedo is boosting his teams field goal percentage to .60 whenever he shoot from 3 point range. any team that is shooting .60 from the field is going to win most of the time. A team shooting .433 from the field against good teams is going to lose.
Hopefully the true think tank types will understand this data and go to
http://www.82games.com/0809/COM4S0.HTM And understand that the players who shoot high field goal percentages against good teams...***factoring 3pt field goal percentages*** this is how you figure out if a player is producing.
So finally...HOW is a player producing AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WIzards fans....i pray that the talented posters will get this and use this in their analysis because the analysis here has been poor and hopefully EG will glance at this board and figure out how dumb he has been in using points per game as away of giving out contracts..instead of using
field goal percentage against GOOD teams which is why we are stilled cursed...
And i haven't even discussed how being undersized means a team has to double team.
I said i would do this at the end.
if caron had five 3pt shots and shot .27 what does that translate into in terms of 2 pointers. If caron made all five 3 pointers, he would have scored 15 points. So what's .27 percent out of 15. You whip out a calculator and multiple .27 times 15 and you get 4.05. So 27 percent of 15 points equals 4 points.
the key here is that caron could have taken 2 pointers instead of 3 pointers.
If caron only have five shots and he got 4 points out of those five shots...how many 2 pointers would caron have needed to make. 2/5.
So that's the point. Right now Caron shooting .27 from three point range means he is shooting .40 from 2 point range...which is still pretty poor.
What would caron need to shoot from 3 point range in order for it to equal .50 from 2pt range.
Ok Lets see 5/10 equals 50 percent. So on ten shots caron scores 10 points. If caron took ten 3 pointers, how many would he need to hit in order to get 10 points. He would need to hit 3 out 10 in order to get 10 points..Maybe 4/10...but 4/10 from 3 point range gives you 12 points. While 5/10 from 2 pt range gives you 10 points. So as long as player is shooting close .40 from 3 point range..he is shooting higher than .50 from the field. This connects back to Hedo shooting .40 from 3pt range against GOOD teams. This is aimed at educating EG so we have a chance at making good offensive decisions in the future..cuz right now...he is stuck in point per game like the quote.
Ok
So if caron took 5 shots and only got 4 points..how many shots did he make? He made 2 out of five shots. His translated 3 point Percentage to 2 point percentage is 2/5 shots. 2/5 means that caron is shooting .40 percent.