Starting Line up???

[doclinkin]

Foye got to the free throw line more than any time in his career in the 08-09 season. In a per 36 minute basis, Foye got to the 3.9 times compared to 3.7 times his rookie season.

Then I was giving him the unearned benefit of the doubt, since Randy Foye's free throws per possession ratio (of .22) is equivalent to, say, DeShawn Stevenson (.22-- no handle so doesn't drive to the rack) or Nick Young (.21-- fades away on every shot so he rarely collects contact). Taking 4 free throws a game is not evidence of a guy who is attacking in traffic on a regular basis.

I agree with your central point, that he's useful as an offguard more than as the primary ballhandler, but we still lack a dangerous slasher who can finish at the rim for easy points and +1 buckets. Especially if Gilbert is taking a less aggro attitude while regaining his game.

Caron within two dribbles.
JaVale on an alley oop, if he has room to operate.
Brendan if you spoon feed him a gentle pass high overhead, and he doesn't squat to the floor in traffic to jump.
Nick Young on a breakaway.
Jamison if the President is sitting courtside.

Those are our options in the way of a high percentage interior power attack to rack easy points and stack fouls. Aside from that we have some nice outside gunners, interesting mid-range package, depth. But we're not really poised to take advantage of the handcheck rules with perimeter quick-step killers. Foye next to a healthy Gil is better than our other options in this respect (though small on D) but even so it's more a case of a drive that becomes a running floater or midrange pull up than even, say, the Antonio Daniels patented 'Statue of Liberty gets destroyed by Godzilla' move (run run, dunk, fall down).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My whole diatribe on Blair prior to the draft was that he's a guy that would get a rebound and be right there, at the basket, ready to put the ball in the basket. A move under the basket, a la Oberto, is okay if it scores at a high percentage

Washington still needs someone that can get easy baskets. My hope is that McGee can watch and learn something about back cuts from Oberto. Javale can learn to score off of more than oops.I hope that Brendan can score inside with more than just a gentle, high pass. I'm hoping that the improved shooting a passing from guys like Foye and Miller will benefit Brendan with the mindset that he's going to open and available for nice passes most o the time. I recall Larry Hughes being one to feed Brendan the ball effectively and I believe both Foye and Miller, as secondary scorers and mainly facilitators will benefit Brendan and other interior scorers. Also, for easy buckets I bet Oberto will get his share.

None of that takes the place of having the personal who just thrive in the paint, but it's all the Wizards have for now.

[Kanyewest]

]Then I was giving him the unearned benefit of the doubt, since Randy Foye's free throws per possession ratio (of .22) is equivalent to, say, DeShawn Stevenson (.22-- no handle so doesn't drive to the rack) or Nick Young (.21-- fades away on every shot so he rarely collects contact). Taking 4 free throws a game is not evidence of a guy who is attacking in traffic on a regular basis.

Where did you get the free throws per possession stats? I was searching for it on the internet and found these stat: FTA Rate and FT Rate used by the Boston Celtics. It is simply a ratio of free throws attempted/made compared to field goals attempted and turnovers. Here is an explanation of these stats:

"To figure out how good a player is at getting to the line, Celtics coaches use a number we call "Free Throw Attempt Rate." This stat simply answers this question: How many free throws does player X attempt for each of his team's possessions he's responsible for using? Calculating this stat is not difficult - you first need to determine how many possessions a player used. A player can use a possession by taking a shot, getting to the line for two or three shots, or turning the ball over. You can estimate this amount by adding a player's shots, turnovers, and 0.44 times his free throws. (The multiplier accounts for "and-1s" and technical free throws.) Then you simply take the number of non-technical free throw attempts the player had, and divide by the number of possessions for which he accounted.

FTA Rate*: FTA / (FGA + TO + (0.44 x FTA))

Even when you subtract technical free throws (not reflected in this sample equation), most of the best scorers in the league have an FTA Rate of over 0.33. For example, Paul Pierce has an FTA Rate of 0.37, meaning he averages 0.37 free throws per Celtics possession where he shoots, gets to the line, or turns the ball over.

Of course, as in the example above, a player could be really good at getting to the line but then be a terrible free throw shooter. (And as Shaquille O'Neal and Ben Wallace could tell you, the fact that a player shoots so poorly from the line could be one reason why he gets there so much!) So what Celtic coaches really are interested in knowing is not only how good a player is at getting to the line, but also how good a player is at getting to the line and then scoring when he gets there. In other words, we need a stat that accounts for both the number of free throws a player attempted and the player's free throw percentage. For this, Celtic coaches use a stat called "Free Throw Rate." This is simply the number of points scored from the free throw line per possession used, and is calculated by replacing FTA in the equation above with made free throws ("FTM").

FT Rate: FTM / (FGA + TO + (0.44 x FTA))

Even when you subtract technical free throws (not reflected in this equation), most of the best scorers in the league have an FT Rate of over 0.20. For example, Paul Pierce has an FTA Rate of 0.29, meaning he averages 0.29 points from the line per Celtics possession he uses."

http://www.nba.com/celtics/stats/inside-the-numbers/numbers010307-free-throws.html


Here's what I got from my calculations.

FTA Rate*

Young- 0.206877331
Foye- 0.21748169
Foye (from Dec-Jan)- 0.258897316
Stevenson- 0.207325501
Butler- 0.273120091

FT Rate:
Young - 0.175792137
Foye- 0.183899958
Foye (from Dec-Jan)- 0.226079347
Stevenson- 0.110573601
Butler- 0.234394108


Note: I decided to include Foye's stats from December and January because Foye was primarily playing shooting guard with Kevin McHale as the head coach and Al Jefferson was healthy which allowed Foye to play a secondary role in the offense. During that span, he almost matches Butler's FTA rate and FTM rate; and is significantly better at getting to the line than Nick Young or DeShawn Stevenson.

[doclinkin]

Where did you get the free throws per possession stats?

Excellent stats are available for free from the remarkable database at Draftexpress. Sortable by column, position, etc. The 'per possession' stats are on the 'usage' table. Here sorted by all SG's averaging at least 15 minutes per game. (You have to use tinyurl.com to shrink the link, otherwise the Realgm bboard software chokes on the string):

http://tinyurl.com/sgftapossession

A few years ago DX sent out a cry for help since they needed capital to keep going otherwise they'd have to go 'subscriber only'. I sent $20 and count it money well spent. Best one stop shopping for bball geekery on the net. Well, best free site anyway.

But yeah, when JJ Redick gets to the line at a better rate than you, you can't be considered a top-tier slasher.

[doclinkin]

My whole diatribe on Blair prior to the draft was that he's a guy that would get a rebound and be right there, at the basket, ready to put the ball in the basket. A move under the basket, a la Oberto, is okay if it scores at a high percentage

Washington still needs someone that can get easy baskets. My hope is that McGee can watch and learn something about back cuts from Oberto. Javale can learn to score off of more than oops.I hope that Brendan can score inside with more than just a gentle, high pass. I'm hoping that the improved shooting a passing from guys like Foye and Miller will benefit Brendan with the mindset that he's going to open and available for nice passes most o the time. I recall Larry Hughes being one to feed Brendan the ball effectively and I believe both Foye and Miller, as secondary scorers and mainly facilitators will benefit Brendan and other interior scorers. Also, for easy buckets I bet Oberto will get his share.

None of that takes the place of having the personal who just thrive in the paint, but it's all the Wizards have for now.

Brendan even at his best (when last seen) has always had wooden hands, requiring passes delivered to him like hors d'ourves on a cocktail napkin. His hands were stronger when last seen, but he still needed both of them to control the ball. After wrist recuperation I don't guess that has changed much.

On the plus side, picketing the perimeter with three point shooters like we are now able means that the interior can be less crowded for guys like Brendan and JaVale to get loose. And we have decent passers available at all positions. We can play Orlando-lite with our best personnel (no Dwight, but capable three-gunners at four positions stationed outside) and back-ups alike.

I trust that Flip will be able to devise schemes to get us easy buckets, even in the mid-range to deep three game. There will be options open for interior scorers. JaVale for instance will be a formidable pick and roll threat once he learns to actually set a solid pick. He can set himself up for passes that nobody else will be able to defend, rolling to the basket with his hands high. He's too tall for all but the longest centers, and too quick for those few to keep up with. He just needs to figure out the timing of it. We'll be fine once he and Gilbert discover each other. And the 6'8" Mike Miller will be able to dump over the top to him all game long.

But yeah it would be nice if we had a rock-wall Power Four who could seal the paint and allow him that lane. Oh well.

Jamison will really need to learn to set a decent screen and box out if he's going to make Flip a happy coach.

[REDardWIZskin]

If gil can still get to the rim at will, were gonna be happy people. That would change a lot.But i don't think offense will be a problem for this team this yr. I just want to know what defensive lineups we will use so we don't blow 6 point lead with 1:30 left like we did against the Cavs this yr. Could Mcgee and Haywood Work (i dont want Jamison anywhere near a defensive lineup) together on defense with butler Stevenson and Gil, or maybe we could throw Dmac in the mix on a defensive lineup (he'll help board strength too). Will gil be able to stay in front of quick pg's? Defense wins Championships!!!!!!!

[Kanyewest]

Where did you get the free throws per possession stats?

Excellent stats are available for free from the remarkable database at Draftexpress. Sortable by column, position, etc. The 'per possession' stats are on the 'usage' table. Here sorted by all SG's averaging at least 15 minutes per game. (You have to use tinyurl.com to shrink the link, otherwise the Realgm bboard software chokes on the string):

http://tinyurl.com/sgftapossession

A few years ago DX sent out a cry for help since they needed capital to keep going otherwise they'd have to go 'subscriber only'. I sent $20 and count it money well spent. Best one stop shopping for bball geekery on the net. Well, best free site anyway.

But yeah, when JJ Redick gets to the line at a better rate than you, you can't be considered a top-tier slasher.

Possible reasons for this:

- Note how someone like Dahntay Jones got to the line more than Paul Pierce and Dwayne Wade. Jones is able to get to the line more because he plays limited minutes and he's the 5th option on offense, meaning defenses focus less attention on him.

The difference between Foye and Redick is that Foye played a much bigger role on his team. Foye was a primary or secondary option on the team compared to Redick who was the 5th option. Redick ultimately has more spacing because teams focused more attention on Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, Nelson, Lee. Foye was either the primary or secondary option when he was on the court.

- When Foye played point guard in the first month of the season. his free throws per game were abysmal- somewhere below 3 per game so I suspect his free throw rate per possession to be limited. Foye also wasn't playing at 100% after coming off a knee injury the prior season. His free throw attempt per possession is twice as high as it was in the 07-08 season when he was injured.
I suspect that Foye's free throw rate when playing shooting guard and healthy to be significantly higher.

- Redick comes in at the end of games in selected minutes when teams are fouling at the end of games. This will impact his numbers even more because he plays a limited number of minutes. And Orlando is ahead in many games given that they won 55+ games last season.

- How accurate is the possession stat overall? According to this database, McGuire played only 4.4 possessions per game while someone like Nick Young played 11 possessions per game, despite the fact that McGuire played more minutes per game than Nick Young. BTW, Dominic McGuire is by FAR the best passing shooting guard, a stat which I'm skeptical of.

[DCZards]

I see Foye starting at the SG. With he and GA, you have two combo guards (a la GA & LH) which, imo, is the best kind of situation for GA to operate in. You give up a little in size with Foye and GA as your starters (though both are at least 6-3 and well-muscled), but you make up for it in quickness, offensive firepower and clutch play.

Nick will compete for the starting SG, which should make for an interesting and competitive training camp and pre-season, but I'd expect Foye to get the nod. Miller will come off the bench to spell Caron (and AJ on occasion). It willl be sweet to have a proven scorer and playmaker, with a ton of experience, as the leader of the second unit.

Got to give EG props for the offseason. He gets an "A", imo, for the trade for Foye/Miller and a solid "B" for picking up a vet like Oberto to step in if the combo of Blatche/McGee fail to get it done as back-ups for BH.

[doclinkin]

- How accurate is the possession stat overall?

Not terribly, it's an estimate:

As a general rule the more possessions a player uses per game the harder it is for that player to use them efficiently. However, for players with very low usage rates this is unlikely to apply. Possessions used approximated by the following formula: Pos = .47*FTMade + .47*Dreb%*(FTMissed) + FGMade + (FGMissed)*Dreb% + TOs, where Dreb% is the proportion of rebounds that are defensive.

That said a high possession player tends to earn more attention from defense, and if they're a top quality attack guard this would tend to earn them more whistles, both proportionally and overall. You don't get fouled on an open shot, one reason why Jamison has low FT rates, since he takes the shot before the defenses react.

Foye is okay. But I recall at Nova he and his backcourtmate Kyle Lowry were pretty active in attacking the paint. Lowry has maintained that profile, Foye hasn't approached the same level, dipped in 0708 (possibly injury based? dunno, I think I read something about that) but is by no means a league leading quickstep slasher. In PG comparison he measures with Chris Duhon and Mario Chalmers in terms of the 'fouled' rate. Would he look better next to a healthy Gil, sure.

What's interesting is that this is the exact team a guy like EJ would have loved. Two combo guards who can bring it up (or a big sf/sg hybrid who can shoot and create for others). Tough to stop at any one position since everyone can create for themselves or pass. I'm not sold on Foye in heavy rotation next to Gil, but it's not necessary anyway, he'll see minutes both ways. I like him best not for his ability to find the paint, but for his range and jumper. If DSteve turns into Mr 50 next to a healthy Gil, I expect good things from a guy who already can hit at a 40% rate from mortar range.

Again. Much depends on Gil's health.

[closg00]

Found this article/blog on top-ten NBA lineups, Wiz # 10.
http://knicks09.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc ... 3/16173476

[BYRDMAN RULZ]

I know I will be in the minority here, but I think we should start D-Mac at the 2 because of his defense and hustle. Let the Big 3 score and let Brendan control the middle and D-Mac guard the 2 and 3's we play against. We need at least one good perimeter defender in our starting 5. I have not seen enough of Miller to know about his defense, but if he can do the job then maybe him, but I really think we need a good defender starting at our 2. We know Gil for all his offensive prowess is not a good defender.

[nate33]

Found this article/blog on top-ten NBA lineups, Wiz # 10.
http://knicks09.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc ... 3/16173476

I think the Celtics would be foolish to start Rasheed. Start Perkins and let him bang on opposing centers a bit and wear them down. Finish with Rasheed, but start Perkins. I'm also not sure that Ginobili will start. My guess is that Pops will really cut down his minutes so that he'll have him in the playoffs next year.

I like our starting lineup better than Atlanta and Utah.

Dallas should be interesting. It all depends on Marion. If Marion can return to his Phoenix form and provide good D, excellent rebounding, and adequate outside shooting, then a lineup of Kidd/Howard/Marion/Nowitzki/Dampier should be pretty impressive. They're huge, long, athletic and experienced. And Nowitzki's superb outside shooting at the 4 should help offset that below-average outside shooting they have at every other position.

[nate33]

I know I will be in the minority here, but I think we should start D-Mac at the 2 because of his defense and hustle. Let the Big 3 score and let Brendan control the middle and D-Mac guard the 2 and 3's we play against. We need at least one good perimeter defender in our starting 5. I have not seen enough of Miller to know about his defense, but if he can do the job then maybe him, but I really think we need a good defender starting at our 2. We know Gil for all his offensive prowess is not a good defender.

I mentioned this a while back. I like the symmetry with Foye backing up the 1 and 2, and Miller backing up the 2 and 3. It makes the rotations easier to manage.

If (and it's a big if) McGuire has improved his outside shot so that teams have to guard him, then this is something worth considering. But let's not forget about Nick Young. It's entirely possible that Nick Young has improved his D more so than DMac has improved his offense. It might make more sense to start Young.

[DCZards]

But let's not forget about Nick Young. It's entirely possible that Nick Young has improved his D more so than DMac has improved his offense. It might make more sense to start Young.

Got to give Nick credit. His D had really improved by the end of last season. I can remember some key defensive stops he made late in the season. Nick certainly has the length and athleticism to play good D.

Yup, I could see Nick competing for the start at SG. It would be interesting to see how he teams up with a healthy GA. Foye or Nick? It'll be competitive.

[closg00]

But let's not forget about Nick Young. It's entirely possible that Nick Young has improved his D more so than DMac has improved his offense. It might make more sense to start Young.

Got to give Nick credit. His D had really improved by the end of last season. I can remember some key defensive stops he made late in the season. Nick certainly has the length and athleticism to play good D.

Yup, I could see Nick competing for the start at SG. It would be interesting to see how he teams up with a healthy GA. Foye or Nick? It'll be competitive.

Yep, the skys the limit now that Nick has REAL coach sorry Zard, I couldn't help myself.

[DCZards]

Yep, the skys the limit now that Nick has REAL coach sorry Zard, I couldn't help myself.

No offense taken. I'm sure Tapscott won't take your comments personally.

[BYRDMAN RULZ]

I know I will be in the minority here, but I think we should start D-Mac at the 2 because of his defense and hustle. Let the Big 3 score and let Brendan control the middle and D-Mac guard the 2 and 3's we play against. We need at least one good perimeter defender in our starting 5. I have not seen enough of Miller to know about his defense, but if he can do the job then maybe him, but I really think we need a good defender starting at our 2. We know Gil for all his offensive prowess is not a good defender.

I mentioned this a while back. I like the symmetry with Foye backing up the 1 and 2, and Miller backing up the 2 and 3. It makes the rotations easier to manage.

If (and it's a big if) McGuire has improved his outside shot so that teams have to guard him, then this is something worth considering. But let's not forget about Nick Young. It's entirely possible that Nick Young has improved his D more so than DMac has improved his offense. It might make more sense to start Young.

If D-Mac could give us a Trevor Ariza like effort we would be good to go (I know that's a big if) . I know D-Mac worked very hard on his jumper last year, let's hope he has reached the point where he can consistently hit wide open looks. If Nick put plays some tough defense, it would put a lot of pressure on opposing teams defense. It is going to be interesting to see how this all plays out, not sure what Flip will do. I imagine if we still had EJ, if Stevenson was healthy he would start.

[Kanyewest]

Here are some highlights of Foye: He doesn't seem to draw a lot of fouls but he does a good job of attacking the basket.

Against the Rockets:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8J9wRE7t ... re=related

Against the Bobcats:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z87BXX05 ... re=related

Against Utah:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41o1UKBu ... re=related

Against the Thunder (26 points in the 1st half
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jHW6610gyM

[Kanyewest]

And a quick demonstration of those handles
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G997x59J ... re=related

[fifthstop]

It's cool that we have 5 options for the starting SG. Quite a contrast vs last year. Plus Mike James as a "break glass in case of emergency" option.