Official Armchair Coaching thread (Pt 2.)

[hands11]

saw that too and had the same thought, doc. The question is can Jamison play that 2/3 role in this offense that would allow them to get another big on the floor. We'll have the ability to be big on the perimeter, if not ultraquick. That said, Foye/Deshawn strikes me as quite the bulldoggish backup guard tandem that could bring some great energy/D when the team needs a lift.

Sure he can. I expect to see every line up I have dreamed of over the years.


AJ will play SF/SG some times
CB will be playing SF/SG
McGee will get minutes at PF with with either Haywood or Berto behind him. Probably not Blatche.
Blatche will get some PF/SF. I can't wait to see some.

Haywood, McGee, Blatche, Miller, Gilbert
or
Haywood, McGee, CB, AJ, Gil

The combination are endless

Haywood, McGee, CB, Miller, Gil

This is going to be so much fun to watch.

[hands11]

Well, one could also look at that quote about 2 SGs or SFs and see hope for D-Mac. At least I do, but I might be his biggest fan on the board. But Flip mentioned a lock down defender a few times, and I think D-Mac has the best potential to be that. Especially with the PG handling almost all the ball handling duties. I also have a hunch EG really likes D-Mac. Just a feeling tho, and it seems their moves go against that notion. Dunno, guess we"ll see. But Im hoping for D-Mac to get minutes, somehow. If not now, then down the road.

I like DMAC a lot but I think he is going to get buried by this talent. He won't play every game. But this gives him a chance to get better and keep developing his game. To start the season he will be used primarily for D. We have him for SF and SG and Critter for PGs. Both will develop well this year. We are DEEEEEP.

I think McGee will get a chance before to long and he will fill in nicely as a PF blocking machines with Haywood or Berto behind him. Blatche will be the primary back up at PF though. Blatche is the one who has the most room to grow as he will need to show a consistent game at PF. I think we will see less of him at Center this year.

[no D in Hibachi]

Call me crazy, but I don't like the idea of Blatche as a SF. He's proven time and time again that he neither has the handles nor a consistent enough shot to be a 3. He's a massive liability at the 3 both offensively and defensively because he turns the ball over any time he dribbles more than 1-2 seconds and he doesn't have the foot speed to keep up with most 3's so he tries to cheat by reaching, which causes him to rack up fouls. He's so much more effective as a 4, why not keep it that way? No sense for him to mess with being a 3 when the team already has Butler, Miller, DMac, and at times Jamison to take those minutes. He's more of a liability for the Wiz than a mismatch for the opponents at the 3.

[doclinkin]

Flip says he'll tend towards a 9-10 player rotation. If I'm guessing:

PG: Gil...Foye...Critt
SG: Miller...Nick...Foye
SF: Caron...Miller...Jamison
PF: Jamison...Dray...McGee
C: Haywood...Dray...McGee

Hard to argue about those rotations but I have heard good things about Nick playing Rip like.

To be clear that guess was as of July. And Flip has been talking a 8-9 player rotation. After training camp, and projecting past the preseason, I'd say it will shake out with a core like so:

PG: Gil ... Foye
SG: Miller ... DSteve
SF: Caron ... Jamison
PF: Jamison ... Blatche
C: Haywood ... Oberto

With a few situational players showing up night to night on a situational basis or as 10 minute per game filler:

PG: James
SG: Nick
SF: Dom
PF: --
C: --

That's the active roster for the early part of the year. Putting McGee and the wounded JCritt on the outside from the outset.

[hands11]

Flip says he'll tend towards a 9-10 player rotation. If I'm guessing:

PG: Gil...Foye...Critt
SG: Miller...Nick...Foye
SF: Caron...Miller...Jamison
PF: Jamison...Dray...McGee
C: Haywood...Dray...McGee

Hard to argue about those rotations but I have heard good things about Nick playing Rip like.

To be clear that guess was as of July. And Flip has been talking a 8-9 player rotation. After training camp, and projecting past the preseason, I'd say it will shake out with a core like so:

PG: Gil ... Foye
SG: Miller ... DSteve
SF: Caron ... Jamison
PF: Jamison ... Blatche
C: Haywood ... Oberto

With a few situational players showing up night to night on a situational basis or as 10 minute per game filler:

PG: James
SG: Nick
SF: Dom
PF: --
C: --

That's the active roster for the early part of the year. Putting McGee and the wounded JCritt on the outside from the outset.

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2009/1 ... index.html

I just keep hearing more of what I like.

Talking about AJ and whatever position he plays Sounds like AJ is going to see more SF. And if needed in spot duty I think we will see him all the way out to SG if needed as a spot up 3 shooter. This would be based on injury. If everyone is healthy and you need your best 3 point shooters out there, then what is the line up ? Well have to see how good Nick had gotten.

Gil, Miller, AJ, Nick?

I also like how he is talking 10 players. 8-9 he says is the core but 10 players a game with with the 10th getting about 10mins and no players going more then low 30s for minutes. Music to our ears. No more GA, AJ, CB for 45 minutes. Flip wants his horses fresh for the post season.

I wouldn't count Nick out of anything. He could end up starting.

PG: Gil ... Foye
SG: Nick...DS
SF: Caron ...Miller..DMAC
PF: Jamison ... Blatche ... McGee
C: Haywood ... Oberto

That's 12 players.

That leaves Crit, James.. Thats 14 with one spot open. We could use one more big body for the 15 inactive player. Someone who can play center.

With Foye, NY, DS, Miller, and CB all able to play the SG there is really no reason to have James active. The safest place for NY to blossom is probably right next to Gil. Gil will both keep him in line and cheer him on.

I would expect Miller to get his minutes between SF and SG so DS falls behind that. DS is there if we need to up the D. DMAC is around for the same reason. I'd probably go with

Foye
Miller
DMAC
Blatche
Roberto

I'd put Gil, CB, AJ and Haywood down for 30-34 minutes. NY, Foye, Miller, Blatche, and Berto getting the next tier of consistent minutes, then DS, McGee and DMAC.

But who really knows. We'll have to see how things work out.

[hands11]

GA 6-3
MM 6-9
AJ 6-9
AB 6-11
BH 7-10

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2009/1 ... index.html

Flip talking D with this line up of bigs.

60 % of practice is defense.

You almost wonder if Flip and EJ ever touched each other if the world would explode.

[doclinkin]

I'm not counting Nick out. But his talents (super-efficient scoring when he's on) are approximated elsewhere by more versatile players.

Mike Miller adds passing and rebounding as well as the long range shot. Randy Foye attacks the lane and is a Gil mimic on offense. And it seems instructive to me that when Flip's talking about how to defensively manage Iverson coming off the bench he thinks about DeSteve. He said they've even run Stevenson as the PG over the last couple days.

History suggests, when given a choice in general Flip prefers a veteran -- they pick up the terminology quickly and make adjustments on the fly, etc. Nick is improving quickly, and his length and athletics will prove a solid defensive asset ultimately, but coming out the gate I imagine that he'll be in the mix as a back-up, battling Stevenson for time. Who would you rather guard LeBron on a switch?

That said depending on the match-up and depending on who is playing well I suspect that back-up 2-guard position will still see a ton of flex. It will be tough to keep Nick off the floor when he's shooting nice, if we can afford to make do with somewhat less experienced defense, then he'll play and straight torture opponents. It's real nice to see how much he has advanced and I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the primary back-up at 2 pretty quick -- if not starting.

[fishercob]

Not sure if this was posted, but I thought some would find it interesting: http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/9/25 ... with-video

[doclinkin]

Saunders said he has been pleased with his team's defensive performance thus far, especially the play of his first unit. The Wizards have focused on field goal percentage defense and three-point percentage defense, and through the first three games, opponents have shot just 42.2 percent from the floor and 22.4 percent from beyond the three-point line. The Wizards have allowed teams to average 105 points, which Saunders blamed on his players putting opponents on the foul line with regularity. Opponents are making 78.5 percent of their free thows.

"We've fouled a lot and we're getting killed at the free throw line," Saunders said. "That's because we're trying to be aggressive. That's something I don't want to change now. We have to continue that aggressiveness, because that will pay off in the long run."

Post Mike.

[nate33]

Saunders said he has been pleased with his team's defensive performance thus far, especially the play of his first unit. The Wizards have focused on field goal percentage defense and three-point percentage defense, and through the first three games, opponents have shot just 42.2 percent from the floor and 22.4 percent from beyond the three-point line. The Wizards have allowed teams to average 105 points, which Saunders blamed on his players putting opponents on the foul line with regularity. Opponents are making 78.5 percent of their free thows.

"We've fouled a lot and we're getting killed at the free throw line," Saunders said. "That's because we're trying to be aggressive. That's something I don't want to change now. We have to continue that aggressiveness, because that will pay off in the long run."

Post Mike.

Hmmm. I hadn't realized that our FG% defense was so good. I can live with the extra fouls if it means lower FG%. It's a strategy used by Scott Skiles and Jerry Sloan. Basically, you handcheck and commit blocking fouls so often that the refs gets accustomed to it. Eventually, they end up swallowing the whistle in the 2nd half. Our depth helps us endure foul trouble so it's a strategy that could make sense.

The issue Flip didn't address in the quote is rebounding. We are getting killed on the defensive glass. If we can maintain the same defensive intensity and opponent FG%, and also pick up the rebounding so that we're an average defensive rebounding team, we'll be in great shape. Right now, our preseason rebounding percentage is just .470. We rank 27th out of 30 teams.

[nate33]

By the way, we're not really fouling that much. We rank 16th in opponent FTA's.

So far this preseason, we rank 6th in opponent eFG%, 6th in opponent TS% (6th being good, not bad), and 16th in points allowed per 100 possessions.

I like those numbers. Take away the 4th quarter of the Toronto game when our scrubs were routed by their scrubs and we look even better. Also factor the absence of Haywood for 1-1/2 games and we look better still.

The relatively high scoring of our games is attributable to pace, not bad defense. We are playing at the 9th fastest pace in the league.

[verbal8]

The Wizards have allowed teams to average 105 points, which Saunders blamed on his players putting opponents on the foul line with regularity. Opponents are making 78.5 percent of their free thows.

Post Mike.

The Wizards obviously need to work on their FT defense Maybe they should bring in a Bingo-player as a consultant for an "extra set of eyes".

[nate33]

For what it's worth, here are the pace-adjusted per-36 individual stats:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
haywood,brendan  9.6 11.5  0.0  0.0  2.9  0.0 .571 .439 15.1
jamison,antawn  26.0 10.0  2.2  0.4  0.9  2.2 .565 .585 25.9
butler,caron    25.0  6.6  1.5  2.2  0.7  2.9 .521 .589 27.4
arenas,gilbert  15.6  1.0 13.0  1.0  0.5  6.0 .500 .516 16.5
blatche,andray  18.6 11.7  2.6  0.9  1.3  3.5 .457 .522 18.6
mcgee,javale    24.7  6.4  0.0  1.4  0.7  1.4 .813 .790 27.6
miller,mike      6.7  7.7  2.9  0.5  0.0  2.4 .267 .378  5.3
mcguire,dominic  3.7  6.6  3.7  1.9  0.0  1.9 .500 .694  8.7
foye,randy      13.2  4.1  2.5  2.0  0.5  2.5 .296 .414  7.9
young,nick      12.0  2.9  1.4  0.0  0.0  1.4 .393 .414  5.4
james,mike      10.5  1.0  3.1  3.1  0.0  6.3 .455 .437  2.6

Butler, Jamison, McGee and Blatche are lighting it up. Haywood and Arenas are getting their rhythm back but doing okay. McGuire is kind of bad, but not awful (PER generally treats non-scorers poorly). Everybody else sucks.

[montestewart]

^
I really appreciate the perspective from those pace-adjusted statistics. Thanks.

[nate33]

And just to inspire another CCJ rant, here are Dejuan Blair's pace-adjusted per-36 numbers:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
blair,dejuan    33.5 17.5  4.6  2.3  0.0  1.5 .607 .628 51.8

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And just to inspire another CCJ rant, here are Dejuan Blair's pace-adjusted per-36 numbers:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
blair,dejuan    33.5 17.5  4.6  2.3  0.0  1.5 .607 .628 51.8

Dayum!

Just keep saying "Oberto provides veteran leadership" ....

nate, I'll pass the baton to Kev. That sample space of DeJuan Blair's numbers is awfully small.

[nate33]

And just to inspire another CCJ rant, here are Dejuan Blair's pace-adjusted per-36 numbers:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
blair,dejuan    33.5 17.5  4.6  2.3  0.0  1.5 .607 .628 51.8

Dayum!

Just keep saying "Oberto provides veteran leadership" ....

nate, I'll pass the baton to Kev. That sample space of DeJuan Blair's numbers is awfully small.

Basically, as a rookie, he is making Wilt Chamberlain look like his bi1ch. A PER of 51 is just beyond comprehension. Seriously, 33.5 points and 4.6 assists with just 1.5 turnovers?

[pancakes3]

gil's stats just scream to me that he's too passive, too hesitant, and thoroughly mind f******* himself. 1 rebound/36? 6 turnovers? an efg of .500? those numbers are usually reserved for mike james. even dixon used to put up better preseason numbers.

[doclinkin]

Popcornmachine game flow is up. Link.

Interesting to see both coaches testing each other out in the 2nd quarter. Seeing who's got the hot hand, who defends who. With Foye hot and the Mavs going small much of the time Flip was able to keep him out there to stick those open shots. Nice to make the opponent pay for the strategy of doubling Gil, that's gonna free him up a ton.

I liked the Big Front Small Back line, we went +8 with:

No Frills Gil
Foye ("who's 'Roy'?")
Mike Millions
Seven Day Dray
Big Wood.

I loved Flip's pacing on time-outs. One for the record books, Flip's opening day wins are 11-2 for his career, exceeded only by Pop at 11-1. Not too shabby.

[Zerocious]

Popcornmachine game flow is up. Link.

Interesting to see both coaches testing each other out in the 2nd quarter. Seeing who's got the hot hand, who defends who. With Foye hot and the Mavs going small much of the time Flip was able to keep him out there to stick those open shots. Nice to make the opponent pay for the strategy of doubling Gil, that's gonna free him up a ton.

I liked the Big Front Small Back line, we went +8 with:

No Frills Gil
Foye ("who's 'Roy'?")
Mike Millions
Seven Day Dray
Big Wood.

I loved Flip's pacing on time-outs. One for the record books, Flip's opening day wins are 11-2 for his career, exceeded only by Pop at 11-1. Not too shabby.

took me a minute to figureout how to read the popcorn machine but then i noticed that our highest scoring quarters were the ones with our starters sitting out the most time. we is deepz!