Not really a big board yet because I have not had a long enough look at a bunch of players, but a preliminary top 10 to get the ball rolling. Ivey #1, the rest in alphabetical order (I'd have Smith 2nd otherwise but that could also still change).
Jaden Ivey
Paolo Banchero
Kendall Brown
Johnny Davis
Jaden Hardy
Chet Holmgren
Bennedict Mathurin
Keegan Murray
Jabari Smith
Well, that's only 9 guys. I couldn't think of a 10th prospect that I'd be comfortable having in that list. I hope someone makes that jump – maybe Griffin, if he continues his strong season with more minutes (he looks better than I expected, for sure). There are a bunch of Freshmen or young players that I've been looking at for that spot and that look like first-round talents but I'd have to see a bit more of them to put them in the group above. Hardy is an obvious candidate to drop if he doesn't improve but for now I'll keep him in due to his upside.
Some guys that I believe deserve some more recognition relative to their hype (as I perceive it right now) are Sochan, Beauchamp and Tubelis. Eason seems to receive some more attention these days, so I wouldn't include him in this list any longer. But I view none of them as serious top 10 candidates at this point. Players that I'm more iffy about than the mainstream are Duren, Baldwin Jr. and to some extent Chandler. Add Keels to this if he gets seriously looked at as a possible late-lottery/mid-first pick which is clearly too high for my liking.
The-Power's Big Board 2022
Moderators: Marcus, Duke4life831
The-Power's Big Board 2022
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The-Power
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Re: The-Power's Big Board 2022
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The-Power
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Re: The-Power's Big Board 2022
Time for some updated thoughts in the form of my lottery big board. As always, it's a big board, not a mock – and it does not take into account draft strategy (i.e. whether a player would still be on the board later). This is strictly about how I view them as prospects. Rankings are in rough order. But they are not fixed, i.e. I can see some movement up and down as I think more about it.
Jaden Ivey
My #1 for a while now. Not a strong #1 but this draft is fairly weak at the top in my view, and I bet on Ivey's explosiveness. Shooting and playmaking are swing skills but I have enough confidence to rank him this high. Mainly because not only has he shown extended flashes already but he does not need to be anything special in those regards to make it worth the gamble. Ivey is going to be one of the most explosive Guards in the league from day one and he will have no issue pressuring NBA defenses. If he can make plays off drives and punish teams for going under screens, he has a chance to be special – and I believe in his ability to hit this minimum threshold. He should be a good defender with his tools but hasn't done enough in college on that end for me to project him as such. Still, I think he should at least not someone teams consistently hunt. His lack of midrange game is a bit of a concern and needs improvement, but he makes up for it with a fairly solid off-ball game. I also think he's one of the prospects most likely to benefit from a more open lane and fewer low-post bigs that hurt spacing in the NBA.
Jabari Smith
Jabari is a really intriguing prospect. Mostly because I fully buy into his jumper. He has one of the best jumpers for a big that I've ever seen. Smooth, quick, consistent and with range. He should have no issues stepping onto an NBA court and making an impact immediately that way. His pull-up ability enhances his upside, and I'll follow with interest how far he can develop his handle. I am a bit concerned about his lack of driving game and shot selection. It was not his role but there were plenty of opportunities to attack that he turned down or couldn't capitalize on, and that should be a point of emphasis alongside increasing his rim attempts more generally. His solid free throw rate suggests that he does not shy away from contact, which is good. On defense, I don't expect anything special but he has size and projects to be able to switch reasonably well despite playing a bit stiff at times. So he gives you some defensive flexibility and could easily be a positive on that end along with an easily fitting offensive role with primary scoring upside if he continues to improve his handle.
Ousmane Dieng
I can't say that I'm super comfortable with him here as I haven't followed him that closely, but I watched a couple of full games towards the end of the season and his upside is really special. His ability as the PnR ball handler at his size is legit. He has a very solid handle, patience, and a good eye for teammates. He doesn't have the burst that an absolute top tier prospect of his ilk would have but his athleticism – paired with patience – is enough to allow him to still penetrate the paint, even though he has to rely on shots in the 3-10ft range a lot when he decides to score. I trust his shot as well. Perhaps it's never going to be elite, but the form looks fine and he has a fairly quick release (albeit a bit low) that should allow him to either space the floor off the ball or at some point develop a pull up game that punishes teams for going under screens in the PnR. Still, I would not rank him this high if I didn't buy into his defense. I believe he has the length, mobility and effort to be able to guard 2-4 effectively in the NBA, which also makes him quite switchable. What is more, I was really impressed with his help defense – he already has a good feel for when to rotate, he is alert, and he has the length to contest shots around the rim. That makes him have a solid floor on top of his high upside, as far as I'm concerned.
Keegan Murray
Keegan is the ultimate high floor prospect, but I also think there is enough upside to him to warrant a high pick. One of my favorite prospects in this draft. His touch around the basket is just incredible, one of the softest I've seen from a player his size in a long time. He has legit three-level scoring potential, and can play both on and off the ball, in the post or on the perimeter, as a screener or with the ball, and he even has some upside as a shooter off screens – and he is a menace in transition. He's an underrated athlete with long limbs and strides. His handle is fine but basic, and it holds him back in terms of projecting him as a primary shot creator, but he should be a fairly high volume scorer on good efficiency regardless. One thing that has held me back from being even higher on him is his subpar passing and playmaking ability. I really hope he's working hard on that, because his offense would really reach another level if he can at least consistently create off of his own scoring threat. I'm fairly high on his defense, too. I don't think he necessarily projects to be an All-NBA defender, but he does have all the markers of being an above average to good defender that fits the modern NBA. He plays with effort, has good size, creates defensive events both around the rim and in the passing lanes, and is fluid enough to switch. He may not be a small-ball 5 except for perhaps really small line-ups, but he should be able to guard all 4s and many 3s, and hold his own against a number of 5s and Guards on switches.
Paolo Banchero
I'm not as high on Paolo as most are. He's a good prospect, for sure, but not anything to write home about to me. I like his offensive versatility and especially the passing flashes he's shown, and he has the tools to be a solid defender. But I think there's a decent chance he turns out to be a below-average to average defender in the NBA unless he really puts in the effort on that end. His lack of rim protection and pedestrian rebounding numbers really lock him positionally as a 4 – the hope has to be that he can be a small-ball 5 at least in spurts, though. With those defensive prospects, he'd have to become a borderline elite offensive player to be at the top of my board and I don't see it. I think he's most likely to be a jack-of-all trades offensive player with second option usage. His handles and burst just isn't good enough for me to buy into him becoming a consistent self-creator besides that midrange pull-up that he has in his bag (a good option to fall back on but it shouldn't be a primary option in today's NBA). His shot projects to be decent, especially for his position, but not more and while I really like his passing – as mentioned – I don't see him becoming a Point Forward type, which would make him a lot more valuable archetype. Still worth a top 6 pick for his upside and decent floor.
Chet Holmgren
Similar to Paolo, I'm more on the skeptical side with him. First, I just really question his frame. He falls down a lot (which also makes me wary of injuries) and he can easily be kept in check by smaller players. If you can defend him with 4s or even 3s, then that decreases his value considerably because while his skill-set is impressive for a 5, it's really not that eye-popping for a 4. I think he'll be a solid offensive 4 with his ability to hit 3s at a reasonable rate, some passing chops, and his length around the rim. But I think he only has a chance to live up to his hype if he can become a legit 5. I think of him as a good defensive prospect but don't buy that he's generational, as some do. Great shot blocker who should really bother NBA offenses when he's in help position, but I'm not convinced he's a particularly effective perimeter defender – which makes it possible for teams to exploit him to some extent – and I fear he'll always struggle on the boards if teams decide to really go after offensive boards which may limit some of his rim protection effectiveness. I love his tenacity, though – really important for a player like him! Similar to Paolo I have him worth a top 6 pick based on upside but can't really justify having him at the top of the list.
Banchero's and Holmgren's reviews read probably more negative than they should, but considering they are almost universally recognized as top 3 picks, I figured it's more important to make a case against having them this high as opposed to focusing on the positives that you can read everywhere else. After these top 6, I think there's a bit of a gap, so let's call this the next tier now.
Dalen Terry
I'm really high on him. GSW Iguodala is who he reminds me of. Incredibly long and a good – although not great – athlete. Disruptive on defense, I really like his ability to be a pest on defense both on the ball and in the passing lanes. I think he'll be able to guard 1-3 really well, and switch onto some 4s as well down the road. On top of it, I expect him to be a positive in terms of help defense. Offensively, I love his passing. His passes to cutters are among the best I've seen over the past years, those are some incredible passes he makes. Great at quick passes and moving the ball into the right spots, too. This makes him an excellent fit in a motion offense. Really good at throw-ahead passes in transition and lob passes as well, and it will be interesting to see if he can become an option in the PnR as well. His scoring is never going to be dominant but I buy enough into his shot that I don't see him as a liability in the half court, and I think he can even become a good scorer in the open court. I can't rank him higher in view of his very limited pull-up and midrange game, coupled with a pedestrian free throw rate and a handle that is decent for a wing but not close to the level of a lead Guard. That probably limits him to a connector role on offense and an opportunistic scorer, but that has value and in combination with his defense I think he's firmly deserving of being a lottery pick on teams that want to build winning teams (and not hope to find their franchise player this late in the draft).
Bennedict Mathurin
Not much to say about Mathurin, really. I think he's just a prototypical SG. Good and in bursts very good but not exceptional athlete, solid but not great size. Handles are good enough to drive but probably not to break set defenses down consistently. His passing is opportunistic but he should make enough plays to warrant a bit of an on-ball scoring role in the NBA. His shot is the big swing skill. I think it's good and I like that he has some variability to it, so I can see him being successful not only from a standstill, but also off screens, curls or with the pull-up. With a good shot, he's probably a starter on an NBA team – his path to stardom probably requires a great shot (among other things), though. On defense, I think of him as average. A bit underwhelming in college and I hope NBA teams can make him really pride himself more with his defense, but with his tools I expect him to not be a noticeable negative unless he really punts it and doesn't put in the required effort.
Jeremy Sochan
I understand some skepticism towards Sochan but I believe he'll just help his teams win – and this is ultimately what it's all about. He's a bit of a poor man's Scottie Barnes, in my eyes. Can't really play PG but still has some passing ability, and besides this shares a lot of similarities with Scottie. Very switchable, smart and vocal on defense, seems to be a leader already, plays with effort, good connector on offense, and just aggressive and apt enough as a scorer that you can't completely disregard him on the court. His shooting indicators aren't great but I believe he has a realistic path to being at least someone who can hit open 3s and not be hacked, his shot is not broken. He's still super young and has time to add to his already mature game. I also hope NBA teams can get a bit more athleticism out of him – he didn't appear maximized in that regard and that could catapult his game to the next level if that's indeed the case.
Jalen Williams
Perhaps a bit too high based on his season but I believe he was a bit miscast as the PG and primary shot creator. It speaks to his versatility that he could fill that role reasonably well but that won't be his NBA role. After college games, I watched him at the combine and he stood out to me in a more realistic role. I think he has great potential as a connector, with his ability to make reads and attack shifting defenses. I buy his shot enough to not be worried about it, and he has nice ability in the midrange which alongside his solid handles allows him to be a tertiary or, as a high-end outcome, secondary creator on offense who can also play within the flow of the offense and alongside better offensive players which means he should scale well. Defensively, I thought he was fine during the college season but pretty good at the combine. He is long and plays with effort, which goes a long way. He should be able to guard 2s and 3s along with some 1s and 4s with his incredible length, which makes him fairly switchable on the perimeter. In college I thought he didn't quite manage to stick close to all his assignments especially through screens and he doesn't have the athleticism to cover a lot of ground quickly for late contests, so I don't necessarily see him as a lockdown defender. But it's not hard to see him as an above average defender in the NBA.
Johnny Davis
I'm not as high on Davis as some in this forum, but I still like him. I've seen Booker comparisons for him but I see him more as a Dillon Brooks type. Not super long but strong, plays with great intensity, has the mindset of a go-to scorer that lets him have some big nights but overall makes him play too much beyond his ability which in turn limits efficiency. Solid athlete but lacks elite burst. Davis has a decent scoring arsenal that should make him particularly valuable on teams that struggle with scoring, especially late in the shot clock. You'd hope that you can reign him in a bit more than Brooks in the NBA but he certainly has the tools to be a plus player on both ends if he puts his mind to it. I expect him to develop a solid 3pt shot (that's already priced in this ranking), but if he wants to be more than a lower-end starter or key player off the bench, he'll have to become more of a playmaker – that would be his path to becoming a high-end starter, in my opinion.
Dyson Daniels
Not feeling his latest rise that has him in the top 5 conversation, but he's a solid prospect nonetheless. I like his defense, including his versatility and switchability (and even some help defense that will be valuable in the playoffs), and his feel for the game. That should make him a useful player on many NBA teams that look for someone to play on both ends of the floor and connect the team on offense. He has solid athleticism and that helps his defense but on offense, this did not really translate as much to actual games. Swing factors for him are shooting and ball handling. He'll have to become a respectable shooter and while the signs are there that he could become that, there's also enough legitimate doubt that he'll ever be a plus shooter – and that naturally limits what he can do on the ball in the NBA. I also think his handle is quite shaky (including one of the least clean and effective behind the back dribble among ball handlers) and renders him a secondary rather than primary ball handler. He has some upside with his feel for the game and combination of good wing size and decent athleticism, but I see him most likely as a role player at the next level – perhaps the 3rd or 4th best player on a decent NBA team.
Shaedon Sharpe
To be honest, I'm not sure where to rank him. I couldn't drop him out of the lottery because of his upside, but from what I've seen, I wouldn't feel comfortable as a team drafting him high in the lottery (granted, that could be different if I was privy to workouts and interviews). Obviously he has good size and great athletic ability, and he at least has a workable shot. That along with his age makes him an intriguing prospect. But we've seen many highly ranked high school kids not playing well in college and ultimately never becoming a good NBA player, and that uncertainty hurts him more than it helps him (as it is sometimes framed), in my view. I have not seen an elite feel for the game from him, and no skill besides athleticism that really pops out (not an elite handle, not an elite passer, not an elite shooter). He could be the next Anthony Edwards (another player that I thought had a lot of upside but was concerned enough about his abilities and approach to drop him on my big board) and it's tough to rank him with the limited information we have, but I'd be wary of drafting him too high at this point.
Tari Eason
Another player that saw his stock rise quite high which I didn't fully buy, although his stock seems to have dropped again. Eason is a prototypical SF in terms of size, length, athleticism. That makes him automatically interesting as a prospect. His ability to score on high volume on excellent efficiency (this year) obviously adds to the appeal. He also has the tools to be a very disruptive defender and if his defense is channeled correctly, he can be a really good NBA defender who can defend the top wings in the league and switch as well. But I can't put him high on the lottery considering his poor feel for the game. His lack of playmaking is really concerning, and I'm not in love with his approach and – to some extent – attitude. I believe his defense is a tad overrated due to his habit of gambling and the motor that can be off on some possessions (along with being a bit too stiff for my liking). I also wonder how well his offense scales next to better offensive players. I don't expect him to be a primary guy on offense (not good enough as a playmaker and too limited as a driver and ball handler to consistently have the ball in his hands) and the question then is: what does he bring to the table? He has the tools to make it work as a cutter and hopefully standstill-shooter, but he'll have to change his approach. And unless his defense really turns into All-NBA level or he has an incredible jump on offense, I just see him most likely as a low-level starter or – perhaps more likely – a key bench piece on a good team.
Some other players I wanted to mention that warrant consideration as a mid-first pick.
Ready-to-contribute:
– E.J. Liddell. I just like him as a Grant Williams type of player. He'll have to play a more limited role on offense but he has enough passing ability and projects to be a decent enough shooter to find a role on that end, especially given that he could be a really solid screen setter in the NBA which could vault him into a role at the top of the key à la Draymond in the best of cases. On defense, this type of player is just en vogue: very strong base, undersized but enough length, and mobile enough to not be hunted on switches. That's a playoffs-profile. If his help defense around the rim translates to the NBA, that just adds to his profile and could allow him to be a fairly effective small-ball 5.
– Mark Williams. His stock has dramatically risen and I can't go quite as high as some others. But he's a contributor from day one and that is valuable to low-level playoff teams that looks to shore up their defense. If you need a rim-protecting drop big, he's certainly your guy with his insane length and block percentage. But I think the second half of the first round is more his range. I haven't seen enough mobility to believe he can successfully defend out on the perimeter consistently. I also don't think he's great running the floor (solid for his size but not an outlier by any means), and he'll be naturally limited offensively (although I think he'll be effective at what he'll be doing, akin to someone like JaVale McGee).
– Walker Kessler. The other big of that ilk that teams should be looking at in this range. Even more special as a shot blocker but a little less efficient in his offensive role (but perhaps a tad more versatile) and has some more concerns about his frame. Still, I'd have him somewhere close to where I have Mark Williams if I was on a team interested in shoring up my big man rotation.
I thought about adding Ochai Agbaji to the list but he feels more like a late-first round pick to me. Same with MarJon Beauchamp, and surely some more (haven't really thought through all the options in this range in more detail).
Draft-for-upside:
– A.J. Griffin. He has been an excellent shooter and if I thought he was a 90-percentile shooter in the NBA, I'd have him in the lottery. I can't quite get there with him, though. I think he has all the markings of a solid rotational player but I haven't been too impressed with his self-creation, athleticism, or defense. Still, with his size and ability to shoot, he has a solid floor and considering his age and high school pedigree, I wouldn't fault a team trying his luck with him even a bit earlier.
– Moussa Diabate. I like him and think teams shouldn't let him drop to the second round. He has a lot of work to do as currently he really doesn't seem ready to contribute to an NBA team and he lacks that one ability to hang his hat onto. But he's young and if he develops nicely, he could be a prototypical 4-5 hybrid in the NBA that can do a little bit of everything in terms of protecting the rim, switching, shooting and pressuring the rim. A poor man's JJJ, who he should be studying to emulate. If he can be 80% of what JJJ currently is, he'd be a player all teams would like to have (but of course that's far from a given).
– Jalen Duren. Admittedly, I don't understand the love he receives from some scouts and analysts on the internet. I haven't watched a lot of that Memphis team towards the end of the season but I've followed them very closely at the start and he was quite underwhelming. He looked like the typical strong and long but undersized around-the-rim player (on both ends) that usually carve out a role in the NBA but mostly as back-ups or starters on bad teams that constantly look to upgrade that spot. But with his age and the possibility that he may not have fully shown everything in his bag, I understand if a team starts thinking about him at some point. If he turns out to have a lot more switching and/or playmaking ability in him (akin to Bam) then I have to admit that he could become a steal in that range (even though I do believe there's a solid chance you're just drafting a back-up or lower-end starting big).
– Jaden Hardy. Terrible season, and I absolutely hated his approach. Way too focused on getting his shots up no matter what and incredibly lazy on defense. That's not going to fly on an NBA team and if that doesn't change, he'll be a bench player even if he improves his percentages to at least acceptable levels. His stock has already rightfully dropped a ton. But there's a reason he was ranked very highly coming into the season and if a team thinks they can work with him on playing within a team context on both ends, he becomes worth the gamble after the lottery. He's not good enough athletically to deserve to be drafted higher in the lottery regardless but he does have considerable upside as a shot creator (especially for himself, and hopefully a bit for others) and shot maker (or at least a shooter from 3), and therefore some team swinging for the fences with patience will probably want to draft him.
– Bryce McGowens. His stock has been quite high on some sites if I recall correctly, and while I can't get myself there, I could see why a team would pick him for his perceived upside in that range after the lottery. He's young, he has good size (and while he's skinny, his frame could definitely fill out), and he was able to handle notable scoring volume in his freshman season. He's smooth but otherwise not a special athlete, and that along with his limited playmaking ability has me not falling in love with his upside. But I won't deny that there is upside in him to become a solid starting-level SG if he improves and that is worth something to teams with a bit of patience who are otherwise looking mostly at prospects projecting to be rotational players in that draft range.
Jaden Ivey
My #1 for a while now. Not a strong #1 but this draft is fairly weak at the top in my view, and I bet on Ivey's explosiveness. Shooting and playmaking are swing skills but I have enough confidence to rank him this high. Mainly because not only has he shown extended flashes already but he does not need to be anything special in those regards to make it worth the gamble. Ivey is going to be one of the most explosive Guards in the league from day one and he will have no issue pressuring NBA defenses. If he can make plays off drives and punish teams for going under screens, he has a chance to be special – and I believe in his ability to hit this minimum threshold. He should be a good defender with his tools but hasn't done enough in college on that end for me to project him as such. Still, I think he should at least not someone teams consistently hunt. His lack of midrange game is a bit of a concern and needs improvement, but he makes up for it with a fairly solid off-ball game. I also think he's one of the prospects most likely to benefit from a more open lane and fewer low-post bigs that hurt spacing in the NBA.
Jabari Smith
Jabari is a really intriguing prospect. Mostly because I fully buy into his jumper. He has one of the best jumpers for a big that I've ever seen. Smooth, quick, consistent and with range. He should have no issues stepping onto an NBA court and making an impact immediately that way. His pull-up ability enhances his upside, and I'll follow with interest how far he can develop his handle. I am a bit concerned about his lack of driving game and shot selection. It was not his role but there were plenty of opportunities to attack that he turned down or couldn't capitalize on, and that should be a point of emphasis alongside increasing his rim attempts more generally. His solid free throw rate suggests that he does not shy away from contact, which is good. On defense, I don't expect anything special but he has size and projects to be able to switch reasonably well despite playing a bit stiff at times. So he gives you some defensive flexibility and could easily be a positive on that end along with an easily fitting offensive role with primary scoring upside if he continues to improve his handle.
Ousmane Dieng
I can't say that I'm super comfortable with him here as I haven't followed him that closely, but I watched a couple of full games towards the end of the season and his upside is really special. His ability as the PnR ball handler at his size is legit. He has a very solid handle, patience, and a good eye for teammates. He doesn't have the burst that an absolute top tier prospect of his ilk would have but his athleticism – paired with patience – is enough to allow him to still penetrate the paint, even though he has to rely on shots in the 3-10ft range a lot when he decides to score. I trust his shot as well. Perhaps it's never going to be elite, but the form looks fine and he has a fairly quick release (albeit a bit low) that should allow him to either space the floor off the ball or at some point develop a pull up game that punishes teams for going under screens in the PnR. Still, I would not rank him this high if I didn't buy into his defense. I believe he has the length, mobility and effort to be able to guard 2-4 effectively in the NBA, which also makes him quite switchable. What is more, I was really impressed with his help defense – he already has a good feel for when to rotate, he is alert, and he has the length to contest shots around the rim. That makes him have a solid floor on top of his high upside, as far as I'm concerned.
Keegan Murray
Keegan is the ultimate high floor prospect, but I also think there is enough upside to him to warrant a high pick. One of my favorite prospects in this draft. His touch around the basket is just incredible, one of the softest I've seen from a player his size in a long time. He has legit three-level scoring potential, and can play both on and off the ball, in the post or on the perimeter, as a screener or with the ball, and he even has some upside as a shooter off screens – and he is a menace in transition. He's an underrated athlete with long limbs and strides. His handle is fine but basic, and it holds him back in terms of projecting him as a primary shot creator, but he should be a fairly high volume scorer on good efficiency regardless. One thing that has held me back from being even higher on him is his subpar passing and playmaking ability. I really hope he's working hard on that, because his offense would really reach another level if he can at least consistently create off of his own scoring threat. I'm fairly high on his defense, too. I don't think he necessarily projects to be an All-NBA defender, but he does have all the markers of being an above average to good defender that fits the modern NBA. He plays with effort, has good size, creates defensive events both around the rim and in the passing lanes, and is fluid enough to switch. He may not be a small-ball 5 except for perhaps really small line-ups, but he should be able to guard all 4s and many 3s, and hold his own against a number of 5s and Guards on switches.
Paolo Banchero
I'm not as high on Paolo as most are. He's a good prospect, for sure, but not anything to write home about to me. I like his offensive versatility and especially the passing flashes he's shown, and he has the tools to be a solid defender. But I think there's a decent chance he turns out to be a below-average to average defender in the NBA unless he really puts in the effort on that end. His lack of rim protection and pedestrian rebounding numbers really lock him positionally as a 4 – the hope has to be that he can be a small-ball 5 at least in spurts, though. With those defensive prospects, he'd have to become a borderline elite offensive player to be at the top of my board and I don't see it. I think he's most likely to be a jack-of-all trades offensive player with second option usage. His handles and burst just isn't good enough for me to buy into him becoming a consistent self-creator besides that midrange pull-up that he has in his bag (a good option to fall back on but it shouldn't be a primary option in today's NBA). His shot projects to be decent, especially for his position, but not more and while I really like his passing – as mentioned – I don't see him becoming a Point Forward type, which would make him a lot more valuable archetype. Still worth a top 6 pick for his upside and decent floor.
Chet Holmgren
Similar to Paolo, I'm more on the skeptical side with him. First, I just really question his frame. He falls down a lot (which also makes me wary of injuries) and he can easily be kept in check by smaller players. If you can defend him with 4s or even 3s, then that decreases his value considerably because while his skill-set is impressive for a 5, it's really not that eye-popping for a 4. I think he'll be a solid offensive 4 with his ability to hit 3s at a reasonable rate, some passing chops, and his length around the rim. But I think he only has a chance to live up to his hype if he can become a legit 5. I think of him as a good defensive prospect but don't buy that he's generational, as some do. Great shot blocker who should really bother NBA offenses when he's in help position, but I'm not convinced he's a particularly effective perimeter defender – which makes it possible for teams to exploit him to some extent – and I fear he'll always struggle on the boards if teams decide to really go after offensive boards which may limit some of his rim protection effectiveness. I love his tenacity, though – really important for a player like him! Similar to Paolo I have him worth a top 6 pick based on upside but can't really justify having him at the top of the list.
Banchero's and Holmgren's reviews read probably more negative than they should, but considering they are almost universally recognized as top 3 picks, I figured it's more important to make a case against having them this high as opposed to focusing on the positives that you can read everywhere else. After these top 6, I think there's a bit of a gap, so let's call this the next tier now.
Dalen Terry
I'm really high on him. GSW Iguodala is who he reminds me of. Incredibly long and a good – although not great – athlete. Disruptive on defense, I really like his ability to be a pest on defense both on the ball and in the passing lanes. I think he'll be able to guard 1-3 really well, and switch onto some 4s as well down the road. On top of it, I expect him to be a positive in terms of help defense. Offensively, I love his passing. His passes to cutters are among the best I've seen over the past years, those are some incredible passes he makes. Great at quick passes and moving the ball into the right spots, too. This makes him an excellent fit in a motion offense. Really good at throw-ahead passes in transition and lob passes as well, and it will be interesting to see if he can become an option in the PnR as well. His scoring is never going to be dominant but I buy enough into his shot that I don't see him as a liability in the half court, and I think he can even become a good scorer in the open court. I can't rank him higher in view of his very limited pull-up and midrange game, coupled with a pedestrian free throw rate and a handle that is decent for a wing but not close to the level of a lead Guard. That probably limits him to a connector role on offense and an opportunistic scorer, but that has value and in combination with his defense I think he's firmly deserving of being a lottery pick on teams that want to build winning teams (and not hope to find their franchise player this late in the draft).
Bennedict Mathurin
Not much to say about Mathurin, really. I think he's just a prototypical SG. Good and in bursts very good but not exceptional athlete, solid but not great size. Handles are good enough to drive but probably not to break set defenses down consistently. His passing is opportunistic but he should make enough plays to warrant a bit of an on-ball scoring role in the NBA. His shot is the big swing skill. I think it's good and I like that he has some variability to it, so I can see him being successful not only from a standstill, but also off screens, curls or with the pull-up. With a good shot, he's probably a starter on an NBA team – his path to stardom probably requires a great shot (among other things), though. On defense, I think of him as average. A bit underwhelming in college and I hope NBA teams can make him really pride himself more with his defense, but with his tools I expect him to not be a noticeable negative unless he really punts it and doesn't put in the required effort.
Jeremy Sochan
I understand some skepticism towards Sochan but I believe he'll just help his teams win – and this is ultimately what it's all about. He's a bit of a poor man's Scottie Barnes, in my eyes. Can't really play PG but still has some passing ability, and besides this shares a lot of similarities with Scottie. Very switchable, smart and vocal on defense, seems to be a leader already, plays with effort, good connector on offense, and just aggressive and apt enough as a scorer that you can't completely disregard him on the court. His shooting indicators aren't great but I believe he has a realistic path to being at least someone who can hit open 3s and not be hacked, his shot is not broken. He's still super young and has time to add to his already mature game. I also hope NBA teams can get a bit more athleticism out of him – he didn't appear maximized in that regard and that could catapult his game to the next level if that's indeed the case.
Jalen Williams
Perhaps a bit too high based on his season but I believe he was a bit miscast as the PG and primary shot creator. It speaks to his versatility that he could fill that role reasonably well but that won't be his NBA role. After college games, I watched him at the combine and he stood out to me in a more realistic role. I think he has great potential as a connector, with his ability to make reads and attack shifting defenses. I buy his shot enough to not be worried about it, and he has nice ability in the midrange which alongside his solid handles allows him to be a tertiary or, as a high-end outcome, secondary creator on offense who can also play within the flow of the offense and alongside better offensive players which means he should scale well. Defensively, I thought he was fine during the college season but pretty good at the combine. He is long and plays with effort, which goes a long way. He should be able to guard 2s and 3s along with some 1s and 4s with his incredible length, which makes him fairly switchable on the perimeter. In college I thought he didn't quite manage to stick close to all his assignments especially through screens and he doesn't have the athleticism to cover a lot of ground quickly for late contests, so I don't necessarily see him as a lockdown defender. But it's not hard to see him as an above average defender in the NBA.
Johnny Davis
I'm not as high on Davis as some in this forum, but I still like him. I've seen Booker comparisons for him but I see him more as a Dillon Brooks type. Not super long but strong, plays with great intensity, has the mindset of a go-to scorer that lets him have some big nights but overall makes him play too much beyond his ability which in turn limits efficiency. Solid athlete but lacks elite burst. Davis has a decent scoring arsenal that should make him particularly valuable on teams that struggle with scoring, especially late in the shot clock. You'd hope that you can reign him in a bit more than Brooks in the NBA but he certainly has the tools to be a plus player on both ends if he puts his mind to it. I expect him to develop a solid 3pt shot (that's already priced in this ranking), but if he wants to be more than a lower-end starter or key player off the bench, he'll have to become more of a playmaker – that would be his path to becoming a high-end starter, in my opinion.
Dyson Daniels
Not feeling his latest rise that has him in the top 5 conversation, but he's a solid prospect nonetheless. I like his defense, including his versatility and switchability (and even some help defense that will be valuable in the playoffs), and his feel for the game. That should make him a useful player on many NBA teams that look for someone to play on both ends of the floor and connect the team on offense. He has solid athleticism and that helps his defense but on offense, this did not really translate as much to actual games. Swing factors for him are shooting and ball handling. He'll have to become a respectable shooter and while the signs are there that he could become that, there's also enough legitimate doubt that he'll ever be a plus shooter – and that naturally limits what he can do on the ball in the NBA. I also think his handle is quite shaky (including one of the least clean and effective behind the back dribble among ball handlers) and renders him a secondary rather than primary ball handler. He has some upside with his feel for the game and combination of good wing size and decent athleticism, but I see him most likely as a role player at the next level – perhaps the 3rd or 4th best player on a decent NBA team.
Shaedon Sharpe
To be honest, I'm not sure where to rank him. I couldn't drop him out of the lottery because of his upside, but from what I've seen, I wouldn't feel comfortable as a team drafting him high in the lottery (granted, that could be different if I was privy to workouts and interviews). Obviously he has good size and great athletic ability, and he at least has a workable shot. That along with his age makes him an intriguing prospect. But we've seen many highly ranked high school kids not playing well in college and ultimately never becoming a good NBA player, and that uncertainty hurts him more than it helps him (as it is sometimes framed), in my view. I have not seen an elite feel for the game from him, and no skill besides athleticism that really pops out (not an elite handle, not an elite passer, not an elite shooter). He could be the next Anthony Edwards (another player that I thought had a lot of upside but was concerned enough about his abilities and approach to drop him on my big board) and it's tough to rank him with the limited information we have, but I'd be wary of drafting him too high at this point.
Tari Eason
Another player that saw his stock rise quite high which I didn't fully buy, although his stock seems to have dropped again. Eason is a prototypical SF in terms of size, length, athleticism. That makes him automatically interesting as a prospect. His ability to score on high volume on excellent efficiency (this year) obviously adds to the appeal. He also has the tools to be a very disruptive defender and if his defense is channeled correctly, he can be a really good NBA defender who can defend the top wings in the league and switch as well. But I can't put him high on the lottery considering his poor feel for the game. His lack of playmaking is really concerning, and I'm not in love with his approach and – to some extent – attitude. I believe his defense is a tad overrated due to his habit of gambling and the motor that can be off on some possessions (along with being a bit too stiff for my liking). I also wonder how well his offense scales next to better offensive players. I don't expect him to be a primary guy on offense (not good enough as a playmaker and too limited as a driver and ball handler to consistently have the ball in his hands) and the question then is: what does he bring to the table? He has the tools to make it work as a cutter and hopefully standstill-shooter, but he'll have to change his approach. And unless his defense really turns into All-NBA level or he has an incredible jump on offense, I just see him most likely as a low-level starter or – perhaps more likely – a key bench piece on a good team.
Some other players I wanted to mention that warrant consideration as a mid-first pick.
Ready-to-contribute:
– E.J. Liddell. I just like him as a Grant Williams type of player. He'll have to play a more limited role on offense but he has enough passing ability and projects to be a decent enough shooter to find a role on that end, especially given that he could be a really solid screen setter in the NBA which could vault him into a role at the top of the key à la Draymond in the best of cases. On defense, this type of player is just en vogue: very strong base, undersized but enough length, and mobile enough to not be hunted on switches. That's a playoffs-profile. If his help defense around the rim translates to the NBA, that just adds to his profile and could allow him to be a fairly effective small-ball 5.
– Mark Williams. His stock has dramatically risen and I can't go quite as high as some others. But he's a contributor from day one and that is valuable to low-level playoff teams that looks to shore up their defense. If you need a rim-protecting drop big, he's certainly your guy with his insane length and block percentage. But I think the second half of the first round is more his range. I haven't seen enough mobility to believe he can successfully defend out on the perimeter consistently. I also don't think he's great running the floor (solid for his size but not an outlier by any means), and he'll be naturally limited offensively (although I think he'll be effective at what he'll be doing, akin to someone like JaVale McGee).
– Walker Kessler. The other big of that ilk that teams should be looking at in this range. Even more special as a shot blocker but a little less efficient in his offensive role (but perhaps a tad more versatile) and has some more concerns about his frame. Still, I'd have him somewhere close to where I have Mark Williams if I was on a team interested in shoring up my big man rotation.
I thought about adding Ochai Agbaji to the list but he feels more like a late-first round pick to me. Same with MarJon Beauchamp, and surely some more (haven't really thought through all the options in this range in more detail).
Draft-for-upside:
– A.J. Griffin. He has been an excellent shooter and if I thought he was a 90-percentile shooter in the NBA, I'd have him in the lottery. I can't quite get there with him, though. I think he has all the markings of a solid rotational player but I haven't been too impressed with his self-creation, athleticism, or defense. Still, with his size and ability to shoot, he has a solid floor and considering his age and high school pedigree, I wouldn't fault a team trying his luck with him even a bit earlier.
– Moussa Diabate. I like him and think teams shouldn't let him drop to the second round. He has a lot of work to do as currently he really doesn't seem ready to contribute to an NBA team and he lacks that one ability to hang his hat onto. But he's young and if he develops nicely, he could be a prototypical 4-5 hybrid in the NBA that can do a little bit of everything in terms of protecting the rim, switching, shooting and pressuring the rim. A poor man's JJJ, who he should be studying to emulate. If he can be 80% of what JJJ currently is, he'd be a player all teams would like to have (but of course that's far from a given).
– Jalen Duren. Admittedly, I don't understand the love he receives from some scouts and analysts on the internet. I haven't watched a lot of that Memphis team towards the end of the season but I've followed them very closely at the start and he was quite underwhelming. He looked like the typical strong and long but undersized around-the-rim player (on both ends) that usually carve out a role in the NBA but mostly as back-ups or starters on bad teams that constantly look to upgrade that spot. But with his age and the possibility that he may not have fully shown everything in his bag, I understand if a team starts thinking about him at some point. If he turns out to have a lot more switching and/or playmaking ability in him (akin to Bam) then I have to admit that he could become a steal in that range (even though I do believe there's a solid chance you're just drafting a back-up or lower-end starting big).
– Jaden Hardy. Terrible season, and I absolutely hated his approach. Way too focused on getting his shots up no matter what and incredibly lazy on defense. That's not going to fly on an NBA team and if that doesn't change, he'll be a bench player even if he improves his percentages to at least acceptable levels. His stock has already rightfully dropped a ton. But there's a reason he was ranked very highly coming into the season and if a team thinks they can work with him on playing within a team context on both ends, he becomes worth the gamble after the lottery. He's not good enough athletically to deserve to be drafted higher in the lottery regardless but he does have considerable upside as a shot creator (especially for himself, and hopefully a bit for others) and shot maker (or at least a shooter from 3), and therefore some team swinging for the fences with patience will probably want to draft him.
– Bryce McGowens. His stock has been quite high on some sites if I recall correctly, and while I can't get myself there, I could see why a team would pick him for his perceived upside in that range after the lottery. He's young, he has good size (and while he's skinny, his frame could definitely fill out), and he was able to handle notable scoring volume in his freshman season. He's smooth but otherwise not a special athlete, and that along with his limited playmaking ability has me not falling in love with his upside. But I won't deny that there is upside in him to become a solid starting-level SG if he improves and that is worth something to teams with a bit of patience who are otherwise looking mostly at prospects projecting to be rotational players in that draft range.