CptCrunch 2022 Big Board

[CptCrunch]

2022 big board, not a mock draft.

Date of Board: June, 10 2022
2022 NBA Draft Date: June 23, 2022

Tier 1
1. Paolo Banchero - Paolo is simply a complete basketball player at 6'10". He is not exceptional at any aspect of the game, but he is sufficiently good enough at all aspects. Player of his size and height simply do not possess games like him, especially when it comes to his ability to create for himself and others on the perimeter. Paolo's main weakness is his relative lack of defensive impact compared to Chet and Jabari; however defense is often a product of development and influenced heavily by team and their schemes. The number of players in the league at 6'10" with 250 lbs frames who can guard the perimeter with elite footspeed can be counted with one hand.

2. Chet Holmgren - Chet projects as a defensive anchor who could have DPOY level impact one day. In addition, to his defensive prowess, Chet makes all those possessions count on offense with an exceptionally efficient offensive game that may be potentially underutilized at Gonzaga. His advanced stats are off the charts and based on his college peers historically with similar stats, he should at minimum be a hyper efficient defensive player in the league. Issues with weight does not concern me for as long as Chet is willing to work on his body, his body will fill out with time to a manageable state.

Tier 2
3. Jabari Smith Jr.: Everyone is in agreement that Jabari Smith is the best shooting big this year, possibly out of all players across all positions. He likely will and can make any team in the NBA better with his skillset of jump shooting and defense. However this is also his weakness, these two skills are his only two exceptional skills. We typically talk about the intersection of strength like shooting + athleticism or shooting + size or size + creation that can at minimum create niches for players in the NBA, but sometimes a fatal intersection of flaws like Jabari's inability to create, weak handles, and efficient finishing abilities can prove to be detrimental to his long term prospects. Jabari to me simply has a lower ceiling of being a supersized role playing second star, a top 20-35 kind of player with any realistic developmental path. Putting Jabari here does not mean that he cannot have a better career than Paolo or Chet as outsized development from Jabari or lack of development Paolo/Chet can cause this plausible scenario to materialize.

Tier 3
4. Shaedon Sharpe: There is really not much to be talked about when it comes to Sharpe. The whole argument for drafting him is his #1 RSCI ranking. Historically based on RSCI outcomes (in terms of draft position), his fair market value unconditional draft position is around a 3.5 (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2186004). (I just want to reiterate what unconditional means in this context; unconditional here simply implies that we are not conditioning his draft prospects on his observed college performance. Just as an extended example, the conditional draft position/value of Patrick Baldwin Jr is fairly low, but the unconditional draft position of PBJ is likely fairly high based on high school production only.) Aside from his RSCI, we have a whole 12 games to assess Sharpe on. He played well in those games. Couple this with his elite measurables (6'6" with 7' span) and athleticism, this makes the complete case for drafting Sharpe high.

Tier 4: Lottery + 1
5. Jaden Ivey: The NBA is a guard dominated league. Someone posted an analysis about how guards have a 50% hit rate in terms of making an all-star team, while bigs hit only at 25% or so. Ivey has a tantalizing combination of speed, athleticism and incredible driving inspects. His limited size as a SG, relatively weak ability to make plays for a PG provides enough downside. Being the most proven, highest rated guard out of this crop of very weak point/combo guards (aside from Canadian man of mystery above) is good enough to be drafted high.

6. Jalen Duren: Duren has an incredibly intersection of youth and measurables. His combination of tools and production at such a young age (among youngest in draft) basically ensures that he becomes at minimum a productive NBA role player. Duren's high end outcome is a Orlando Dwight, his low end outcome is at least a DeAndre Jordan.

7. Dyson Daniels: Dyson has been fairly productive in the G-League despite being a foreign player. His one big flaw this season has been his weak shooting ability. However, Dyson has shot very well near the end of his G-League tenure, and It is rumored that Dyson Daniels has been shooting lights out during pre-draft workouts. He is likely the best passing guard this year out of his class of craptacular passers. His size, ability to defend, ability to pass makes him a jumbo point guard prospect.

8. Bennedict Mathurin: Benny Math as I like to call him is just a baller. He is just a "boring" SG in all aspect. Boring doesn't imply bad. Boring just implies unexceptional. Benny is good at all aspects of the game, great at nothing. In my mind, there is really not much separating Sharpe, Ivey, Benny in terms of NBA prospects. Fundamentally, all three of them are NBA shooting guards, except Sharpe has more assumed upside due to his RSCI rank, Ivey insufficient size to be classified as a SG. I wouldn't be surprised if the order of their goodness is swapped from the order of their draft.

9. Mark Williams: Mark is a slightly worse Duren as a prospect mainly due to age (2 years older). If we ignore age, Williams is a bit more productive than Duren on the court. While there is no guarantee that Duren develops better than Mark in two years worth of time, 2 years is quite a big age gap. Because of this age , Mark's upside is lower than Duren's. One thing to note is that Mark might be a good shooter at C solely based on his shooting trajectory at Duke. Some players improve years, while bricksmiths like Dwight never improve their shot.

10. AJ Griffin: I am a big believer in pedigree. AJ Griffin has both the RSCI and actual NBA pedigree to back it up. His daddy is an active NBA coach. Coaches' sons usually turn out alright at minimum. Griffin's shot is unorthodox in form, but his efficiency cannot be questioned. If his wide shot base was a problem, presumably his NBA coaching dad would have corrected it years ago. AJ has been played as a role shooter on Duke's rosters, so there is potentially more in him that can be squeezed out in the league.

11. Jeremy Sochan: Sochan is a full stop stud defender with PF dimensions. He didn't measure at the combine but is listed as having a 7' span. I see Sochan as a glue guy at PF position who can play small ball center. His shooting is suspect, but he has very positive signals in terms of passing and feels for the game.

12. Keegan Murray: Keegan stuffed the stat sheets too much to ignore. He creates offensive for himself while not turning the ball over. That screams role player to me. He could potentially contribute day one in the league to his physical maturity. His age limits his NBA upside.

13. Trevor Keels: This kid is suffering from fat; you could say he is built like a football player. You can watch film and see his physique. As a result, his numbers at the combine are pretty poop in terms of athleticism. I don't see this as an issue; if there is a will, a physique like his can be sculped within a year. Despite all this, he was too productive at Duke despite playing out of position in a too many chefs in the kitchen situation. Duke suffered from having too much ball handlers - none of whom are good enough at their developmental stage to act as the primary handler (Paolo, Moore, Keels, Roach). People like to call Duren just a baby, and let me tell you Keels is also a baby who will still be 18 on draft day.

14. Johnny Davis: Productive undersized shot jacker with meh athleticism. Loves mid range jumpers which is not a shot you can legally take in the NBA (unless you team is tanking or your name is Durant and/or the retired LaMarcus Aldridge). Too productive in college to drop lower.

15. Tari Eason: Eason has elite size, measurables and skills. I sense too much negative energy with respect to non-basketball related factors to take him higher. Based on pure talent, I don't see a problem taking him top 5.


Tier 5
Ranked in rough order, some could basically be near the end of tier 4. To be honest, this part is pretty terrible. I haven't put too much though into accurately curating this sublist.

16. Walker Kessler:
17. Kendell Brown:
18. Malaki Branham
19. EJ Liddell
20. Jalen Williams
21. Jake LaRavia
22. Blake Wesley
23. Jaden Hardy
24. Kennedy Chandler
25. Wendell Moore
26. Christian Braun
27. Dalen Terry
28. Ousmane Dieng
29. Ochai Agbaji
30. TyTy Washington

[CptCrunch]

Morning of June 23 Final Big Board of top 33 players in the draft

Tier 1 - Potential Franchise Changing Talent
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Chet Holmgren

Tier 2 - Lower Tier Franchise Player
3. Jabari Smith Jr

Tier 3 - All-Star Median Outcome
Empty

Tier 4 - Role Player Floor Median Outcome
4. Dyson Daniels
5. Jalen Duren
6. Shaedon Sharpe
7. Jaden Ivey
8. Keegan Murray
9. Bennedict Mathurin
10. Jeremy Sochan

Tier 5 - Lower Side of Tier 4
11. Trevor Keels
12. AJ Griffin
13. Tari Eason
14. Johnny Davis

Tier 6 - Role Player Upside Median Outcome, * relatively higher upside player in this pool

15. Mark Williams*
16. Walker Kessler
17. Kendell Brown
18. Jaden Hardy*
19. Malaki Branham
20. EJ Liddell
21. Jalen Williams
22. Patrick Baldwin Jr*
23. Blake Wesley
24. Ousmane Dieng
25. Kennedy Chandler*
26. TyTy Washington
27. Wendell Moore*
28. Christian Braun
29. Dalen Terry*
30. Ochai Agbaji
31. Jake LaRavia
32. Nikola Jovic
33. Jaylin Williams