The-Power's Big Board 2020

[The-Power]

Big Board 12/05/2019

#1 Cole Anthony
#2 James Wiseman
#3 R.J. Hampton
#4 Tyrese Haliburton
#5 Killian Hayes
#6 Anthony Edwards
#7 LaMelo Ball
#8 Isaac Okoro
#9 Josh Green
#10 Isaiah Joe

Couple of notes:

– This class is missing a clear #1 and top-tier prospect (much less a generational one). I was hoping Cole Anthony would develop into that but thus far, it hasn't looked like it. Hence, the second-tier prospects are currently battling for the top spot which, for now, I still give to Cole. We'll see if someone can separate himself from the pack, still plenty of time left.

– Edwards and Ball are two of the highest-upside prospects in this draft. Hence, I can understand why some teams would decide to swing for the fences and draft them in the top 3. At the same time, my concerns about their attitude and approach makes me consider them risky prospects (i.e. can they be consistent and highly impactful players on really good teams?); and I currently see five players with less doubts who in my view still have enough upside to justify ranking them ahead of the Edwards and Ball.

– After that, the potentially elite on-ball prospects seem to be gone and it's time to consider the wings/bigger off-ball guards. None of them I see as having a clear path to stardom but I believe they will fit well into the NBA as valuable pieces on good teams. Joe is still on there but at the current rate I'm more or less waiting for someone to replace him once I'm more comfortable ranking some of the players who I have on the shortlist for potential lottery picks.

– There are a couple of interesting bigs but I've not yet been enamored with any of them. I can see this draft producing a number of productive bigs that teams will like to get their hands on, but besides Wiseman none of them strikes me as clear top 10 talents at this point. I'll keep an eye on defensive smarts and ability to switch in particular; that's how some of them can still win me over with more exposure. For now, though, I'd say it's a weak draft for bigs in the first half of the first round but quite a good one for the second half of the first round.

Also, I haven't gone past the top 10 yet because there is so much movement going on below that (hell, even in the top 10 there is quite a bit of fluidity still). But all prospects taken into account (i.e. assuming everybody enters the draft), there are a bunch of players I currently have ranked in the 2nd round who I'd definitely be willing to draft late in the 1st round. We'll see who stays in the draft and who returns to college, but there could be quite a few valuable players and steals in the early second-round range.

[clyde21]

i like where u have RJ, Okoro and Green ranked. Love Haliburton but that might be a little rich (though he's probably a top 10 or 12 guy for me too, just haven't gone there yet).

too high on Hayes for my taste.

[The-Power]

I'm warming up to the idea of putting McDaniels into the top 10 (probably replacing Joe for starters). He shows flashes of being a versatile scorer and has some tools defensively, packed into a 6'10 body – that could be enough in this draft to be ranked high. Super raw, of course, but the potential to become Ingram-lite is there.

[The-Power]

(Very) Preliminary Top 30 (Tons of Moving Parts and Tough Decisions Still)
–– Note I: This is assuming everyone is in the draft, even though some are very unlikely to actually be in
-- Note II: While not exactly ‘tiers’, the separations indicate clusters within which the order tends to be more fluid than it is between clusters

1. Killian Hayes
2. Tyrese Haliburton
3. James Wiseman
4. R.J. Hampton
5. Cole Anthony

6. Anthony Edwards
7. LaMelo Ball
8. Josh Green
9. Deni Avdija
10. Jaden McDaniels

11. Isaac Okoro
12. Onyeka Okongwu
13. Nico Mannion
14. Paul Reed
15. Obi Toppin

16. Isaiah Joe
17. Romeo Weems
18. Scottie Lewis
19. Isaiah Stewart
20. Tyrese Maxey

21. Aaron Wiggins
22. Mason Jones
23. Daniel Oturu
24. Tyus Jones
25. Trayce Jackson-Davis
26. Theo Maledon
27. Oscar Tshiebwe
28. Devin Vassell
29. Aaron Nesmith
30. Landers Nolley

HM: Tyler Bey, Zeke Naji, Jalen Smith, Quentin Grimes, Jared Butler, Tyrell Terry, Joel Ayayi, Ochai Agbaji, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Precious Achiuwa, Jahmi'us Ramsey (all of them could have been easily put into the 21-30 range). And I am certainly forgetting a number of players.

edit: Forgot about Patrick Williams, probably because I never thought of him as a 2020 draft prospect. He would be in my top 30.

[The-Power]

I haven't had time to scout as much as I hoped, so in combination with this draft having more question marks than most I can't say I'm confident in my ranking. Still, I wanted to put myself out there for posteriority as I'm curious to look back in a couple years to see where I was wrong (or, incidentally, right).

Note that the ranking does NOT necessarily reflect my draft strategy. If I was drafting, I might take more risks at the top in order to shoot for the fences; this ranking is taking into account floor, ceiling and median outcome without inherently prioritizing one over the other as would be the case for talent-starved franchises that need to bring in excitement and hope (where ceiling and appeal of a prospect matters disproportionally strongly).

LOTTERY BIG BOARD

#1 Killian Hayes
––– Somebody has to be #1 and I like Hayes more than anybody else as a prospect while realizing that he's likely not an at-the-very-top prospect in a better draft. Still, I very much like his game. Good size, plays defense, really good playmaker and passer, and he has shown me enough scoring moves to believe that he can become a legit scorer. That makes me believe that he is the most likely player to blossom into an offensive star while still having a solid floor if he doesn't. Question marks are his right hand and his ability to break down defenses without picks set for him. I'm fairly confident that he'll be a fine shooter down the road, given his free throw percentage, shooting form (not ideal but consistent) and ability to shoot off the dribble (even though the efficiency is not quite there yet).

#2-7 James Wiseman
--- Normally, I'm wary of drafting bigs too high. I can't say I'm unconcerned about Wiseman but I believe he has a chance to be a really good player for a long time. I buy into his interior defense (rim protection, defensive rebounding) and I believe motor questions are way overblown. I like his motor actually and on offense, I do believe he can be valuable as a vertical spacer (even though he is not explosive) and roll man, and he should at least have a jump shot in his arsenal to use when he has space; he also runs like a deer in transition. Question marks are how well he can defend the perimeter and if he can make the right reads on offense, especially out of the short roll. If he's always going to be bad at those things, that'd limit his ceiling considerable. If not (and that doesn't mean he has to be a revelation in those regards), he can be an excellent big man for years.

#2-7 Tyrese Haliburton
––– My ‘I love how this guy plays’ prospect in this draft. He'll probably not end up being a top 3 player from this draft, but I also don't know who will and he has as good a shot as anyone to be a player that teams want to have, for years to come. In other words, somewhat limited ceiling but really great floor. Excellent passer, spot-up threat, long and disruptive defender and one of the quickest and best decision-makers among Guard prospects in a long time; just incredibly cerebral, teammates and coaches will love working with him. Question marks are if he'll ever be able to handle contact on offense (and to some extent on defense) and effectively run the PnR by being a pull-up threat (at least with some space). His handles are also nothing to write home about, he doesn't have a lot of wiggle. Hence, I wouldn't be banking on him becoming more than an opportunistic scorer, but he'll still find plenty of ways to be valuable especially to winning teams.

#2-7 Cole Anthony
––– Crazy ranking, perhaps, but I absolutely loved Cole in HS and decided to not take his college play as the main reference point. He played in a team with constantly clogged lanes (two interior bigs), little shooting and virtually no other shot creator. That's an issue. For him to be worthy of being drafted this high, you need to buy fully into his pull-up jump shot which I do – if not elite, I'd expect him to be borderline elite in this regard, although that's clearly not a given. Also, I believe he is a better playmaker than what he has shown or could show in college; not amazing but legitimate lead-Guard skills. Question marks are obviously if he can finish around bigger players, which he really struggled with in college, and consistently find effective spots to score on the floor. On defense he'll be limited but he should be fine for a PG (i.e. not a complete liability).

#2-7 Patrick Williams
––– He rose in the rankings for me. Why? Because he is the type of athlete NBA teams are looking for – good size, strong, fairly explosive, enough mobility for the perimeter – and has enough skill for me to believe that there might be room to grow into a legitimately good offensive player, not least considering his age. He is limited skill-wise at this point but he has shown that he might develop a consistent midrange shot to which he can get whenever needed. I believe a decent catch-and-shoot 3 will follow. Can he refine his handle enough to get to his spots and also create a bit if needed? Not sure, but possible. He's a bit stiff which limits a bit what he can do on both ends to some extent and he hasn't been nearly as strong around the rim as a driver as you'd hope (both getting there and finishing), but overall his athletic profile with the rudimentary skill-level is worth a high pick in my eyes.

#2-7 Anthony Edwards
--- Amazing physical profile and he could develop into a premier shot-maker in the NBA, which is valuable. He can drive and finish, he can pull up from range, play some bully ball and also create in a secondary role. On defense he has all the tools to flourish as a pesky on-ball and passing-lane defender. So what's wrong with him? Well, it's between the ears. He's just playing super lazy and has been like that in HS as well; from not playing with effort on defense to jacking up bad shots one after another. I just don't expect a player like him to change dramatically – and if he does, then because he wasn't good enough in the NBA to play his ‘natural’ way, meaning he'll likely have never shown offensive superstar potential. I also don't believe he reads the floor very well, so I wouldn't want him as a central decision-maker. Ceiling is still arguably the highest in the entire draft and that's what makes it worth the gamble relatively early, but I'm very wary of his development.

#2-7 LaMelo Ball
--- Ball is another player that I evaluate like Edwards. He has the best vision and creativity out of anybody in this draft, with great handles and size. Pretty great foundation, no? And it’s true, but the downside is pretty significant, too. His jump shot looks quite broken and if that’s not there then his path to stardom becomes infinitely more narrow. He’s also lazy on defense, has poor shot selection, lacks elite quickness to make up for a suspect shot and does not seek contact at all. All that raises concerns that he’ll remain an inefficient scorer who bleeds (some) points on defense, and in that case, him being an exceptional passer with great vision is not going to make up for it. And what can he really bring in a role that does not envision him to pull the strings on the court? Still, if he can score at least at average efficiency he could become the driver of an offense that is worth drafting high; and perhaps he can even be average defensively if he gets his head straight (through the influence of others, I’d expect).

#8 Onyeka Okongwu
--- A player that I like but not love. I was thinking about grouping him with the others above and that’d be fair as well. High-level defensive player with great instincts and athleticism and a soft touch on offense that bodes well for a player who can contribute on that end. He should be fairly switchable although I’m not yet fully buying into him as someone who can really switch onto almost anyone and do well – I haven’t seen enough of that in college, but I’m not sure if that was more about strategy (drop fairly deep) or about ability. He might have some issues against bigger players where he lacks size (and perhaps strength) in comparison but his motor will help alleviate that issue a bit. On offense, he has shown some flashes, but his midrange game is still very rudimentary (long-range non-existent yet) and his playmaking limited; he has shown some individual flashes of being a solid passer, but I haven’t seen him as an Adebayo-type yet. If he can make plays consistently as a hub or on the roll and defend the perimeter at an elite level for a big, he obviously jumps ahead. But I’m not fully convinced of it just yet, so I’ll place him a bit lower out of caution.

#9-14 Deni Avdija
--- I’ve grown on him a bit more recently. I trust in his drive to get better and with his swiss-army-knife skill-set I believe he will easily find a role on an NBA team. He can pass it fairly well, run the break, defend multiple positions with energy and make plays off the ball. Good size for a wing as well. That said, I’m cautious about his ability to create given that I don’t think very highly of his handles and fear he might be a bit too stiff to really cut through defenses when asked to make plays. Also, while I am encouraged by his catch-and-shoot ability to some extent, it really is tough for me to disregard his poor free throw shooting percentages. In other words, I don’t see him as a non-shooter but I also have little faith that he’ll develop into a good one. Still, I fully expect him to have a long career as a valuable piece of a franchise.

#9-14 Isaac Okoro
--- Okoro, like so many other prospects, is a really problematic prospect for me to assess. On the one hand, he should be a really good man-defender with his strength, energy and instincts; and on offense, he flashes some really solid playmaking for a wing and can bully players on his drives to the rim, where he finishes surprisingly well even when he cannot use brute force. That gives him potential as someone who creates a bit and exploits weaknesses of defenses, not least off the ball and off the catch. On the other hand, I don’t see an elite defensive prospect in him as I don’t see him as overly disruptive – as most great defensive wing prospects were in college – and he isn’t exactly long. And on offense, his shot is a big issue. If he can’t even convert wide open shots somewhat reliably, NBA teams will exploit that ruthlessly in the playoffs and limit his overall effectiveness, and there’s real concern that he’ll never be able to shoot. However, if he becomes even a somewhat below average shooter his other skills should make him a really valuable player for a lot of teams.

#9-14 Kira Lewis
--- He replaced Hampton for me over time as I soured on him and couldn’t come up with a lot of reasons why he should be ranked ahead of Kira. Lewis is lightning quick and a fairly skilled finisher, with enough promise as a playmaker and shooter that I can see him becoming a lead Guard for some franchise. He is the type of player that could be able to put enough pressure on defenses to shift them and open up space for teammates. He needs to gain weight, obviously, and there are risks that if his shooting and playmaking are nothing more than mediocre that he’ll never be more than a back-up PG – but hey, even a Dennis Schröder-type of player has some value on the right contract. Defensively, I see him struggling a bit against big grown men but there’s enough there to believe that he won’t bleed points and that he will create some disruption with his length and quickness. Worth a gamble for some franchise who is looking for a PG they can groom into a long-term starter and could get away with drafting ‘only’ a high-level back-up if things don't pan out.

#9-14 Paul Reed
--- This is perhaps one of those picks that I’ll look back at later and feel like a fool; it’s certainly relatively far off from the majority opinion. But I can’t help but see him as a potentially elite defender that wreaks havoc all over the floor. He’s long and has the potentially to be incredibly disruptive in a variety of spots, he can defend multiple positions (in theory) and rebounds very well. Does he have enough dog in him and can he develop his body to the point that he can handle higher levels of physicality? I’m not sure, but it’s at least possible. On offense, he’s limited but I see him as someone who can find a role in which he can at least be somewhat effective – as someone who shoots open shots, makes himself available off the ball when defenses are broken down and crashes the glass. He's not exactly skilled, but also not completely without skill. Nothing exciting on that end but enough to warrant a high pick if (!) he can reach the defensive potential that I see in him.

#9-14 Devin Vassell
--- Vassell is a player I feel I should like more but I’m not 100% sold on him. I was (and am) madly in love with Mikal Bridges and Vassell is at times compared to him – and can even do a bit more with the ball in his hands – but I just think Bridges’ superior length, athleticism and catch-and-shoot ability made him a better prospect, and while Vassell is a very smart defender (and off-ball player), Mikal was the best I’ve seen in a long time in terms of defensive intelligence and disruption in a wing prospect. However, I fully believe that Vassell will have a long NBA-career as a very useful player on the wings for a variety of teams and in a variety of line-ups, who can contribute on both ends. That’s good enough to draft him fairly high, ideally by a team that has already the set-up to make the playoffs and potentially deep playoff-runs but seeks to fill out the wing rotation.

#9-14 Josh Green
--- I must admit that I love this guy. The energy with which he plays defense is contagious. He’s poised to be the kind of player every team likes to have because you can throw him on the opponent’s best perimeter player and get consistently good defense. He’s a good off-ball defender, too. Unfortunately, to be an absolutely elite defensive wing prospect he lacks some size/length. Still, the issue is more what he can do on offense. Thus far, he can run in transition and make plays off the ball. He has shown some ability to make good passes and quick reads, especially when he doesn’t have to try to create by himself but feed off others, and he can shoot well enough that you can’t leave him completely open. Still, his ability to knock down shots will be crucial for his offensive value and whether he’ll ever be more than average (if that) is a legitimate question mark. His ability to finish around the rim is also quite poor, despite his physical talent, so that I don’t think we can project him to be more than a low-usage player – an opportunistic scorer and perhaps tertiary playmaker – on a good team. I’m really not sure if he should be ahead of some players listed in the following, but I’ll place him here as a token of appreciation for how he plays the game.

Other players that I seriously considered in that range and that I feel have good to great arguments to replace someone from above:

Spoiler:

– Aaron Nesmith: if he’s indeed the elite shooter he can be (and stays healthy), that’d be worth a lot even though he’s pedestrian at basically everything else

– Obi Toppin: I loathe his defense (stiff on the perimeter, can be pushed around inside, clueless rotations and positioning, not a great motor) and I’m therefore comparatively low on him, but his physical tools and skill-basis to be a really good offensive big are undeniable

– Saddiq Bey: seems like the player who will have a long career but lacks upside to be more than a lower-end starter or high-level bench guy; still worth seriously considering for a playoff team with his solid shooting and defense as a big wing

– Tyrell Terry: not sure if he can defend at the next level and if he has the tools to be a primary creator (handle, burst), but his shooting potential paired with passing make him a prospect with clearly identifiable upside and I love his off-ball movement (which is still a seriously underrated aspect of the game)

– R.J. Hampton: fell on my board because I grew less and less convinced of his shot, but with his blistering pace, length and decent skill-basis (for a non-lead Guard) he has a good chance to outperform his ranking if he can knock down shots consistently

– Tyrese Maxey: not high on him as I see him stuck in a role as a mediocre-efficiency creator off the bench, but can’t deny that he has some tools that if he can put it together, he might be more than that (but I'm not sure where high-level impact would come from)

– Precious Achiuwa: lots of question marks in terms of skill and if he can be anything more than a garbage man on offense, but if he reaches his defensive ceiling then he’ll be really good as a switchable energy big with solid enough strength and length to play the 5 (especially when teams go small)

Other players I really like as first-round talents but for which I'd have a hard time coming up with an argument to justify placing them in the late lottery:

Spoiler:

– Mason Jones: my favorite sleeper, who I could see as a high-level shot maker at the next level that teams will love to have off their bench or possibly even as a starter in some settings

– Jaden McDaniels: his upside is comparatively high, but question marks regarding his game, and how it can positively impact the game consistently, are quite big; I probably like his defensive upside more than most, though

– Xavier Tillman: he could carve out a role as a rock-solid big that gives you something on both ends of the floor

– Tyler Bey: like how he plays the game, but I’m skeptical if he can find an offensive role and if his defense fully translates; still a player to keep an eye on

– Tre Jones: solid PG who may even be able to develop into a starter but who I wouldn’t invest a high pick on because I believe he’ll always be relatively easy to replace; still not without value

– Daniel Oturu: he has potential as an offensive big who can protect the rim well enough to not be a liability on defense; I see him as a long-term but productive bench big if he cares enough to be engaged in that role

– Jalen Smith: I have a hard time deciding if I should be higher on Smith or Oturu; Smith I can envision in a bit more conventional role that makes his path to a rotation player easier, but Oturu might have a bit more upside

– Theo Maledon: I was much higher on him at first, then soured a lot; still, I do believe he warrants a mention at this point – he could develop into a solid NBA PG

– Desmond Bane: I believe he’ll be a fine rotation player that can shoot (don’t expect it at an elite level but he should be fairly good) and pass well, and defend within a system, but with obvious limitations (defense, ballhandling, speed)

– Isaiah Stewart: I see a bench big that can give you interior offense, hustle on the glass and some resistance in the paint; but ultimately I don’t see anything that would allow him to be much more than that

– Isaiah Joe: I was high on him at the start of the season so I should at least mention him; I think he’s a second-round prospect but if he can maximize his defensive and shooting potential he could carve out a nice role for himself

Players that I haven’t seen enough of to get a firm idea but warrant mentioning:

Spoiler:

– Aleksej Pokusevski: he could be a clear lottery pick for all I know; I haven’t scouted him in any detail so I have no clue where to rank him, but he’s certainly intriguing in what he brings at first glance (more intriguing than anybody else mentioned below)

– Robert Woodard: I haven’t scouted him nearly enough; seems intriguing with his physical profile but not enticing enough to be considered with a much higher pick to me

– Leandro Bolmaro: good size but really an unknown quantity that I struggle to rank higher from the limited amount I’ve seen of him

– Grant Riller: another player I don’t know what to make of; he looks promising in some ways, but I’d be surprised if he turns out to be more than a valuable scoring Guard off the bench

– Malachi Flynn: akin to Riller, but I’d have to see more of him to get a good grasp

I’m sure I’m missing some players that are worth considering but I lacked time and still wanted to put myself out here, if only to later look back see how right and wrong I was on some of the players at the time of the draft.