Fun with Stats!!!

Post #881 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:57 pm

We have had the #1 pace in the league in our last 10 games. We are currently ranked 10th on the season.

Robot Rock · Post #882 » by **Robot Rock** » Tue Jan 3, 2023 3:26 pm

I have a question that I'm not sure fits anywhere else: Why is this team, regardless of scheme and roster makeup, so atrocious at shooting?

Post #883 » by **fatlever** » Tue Jan 3, 2023 3:58 pm

Robot Rock wrote:I have a question that I'm not sure fits anywhere else: Why is this team, regardless of scheme and roster makeup, so atrocious at shooting?

I my guess...

We are seeing the result of a GM that has not prioritized 3pg shooting in the 4 years of being in charge. We haven't signed or drafted any notable shooters. The 3pt shooting We do have has been the result of internal development from guys like Terry.

Schematically, Clifford has never really been able to design an offense that generates a lot of quality three-point shots. I seem to remember under both coaches we have ranked towards the bottom in the league in corner 3-point shot attempts. I don't know if that has changed this season. We don't have a lot of high IQ basketball players that are able to generate good looks or even take good shots.

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SWedd523 · Post #884 » by **SWedd523** » Tue Jan 3, 2023 4:27 pm

Robot Rock wrote:I have a question that I'm not sure fits anywhere else: Why is this team, regardless of scheme and roster makeup, so atrocious at shooting?

Gravity.

We don't have a star player that needs to be doubled and/or commands the full attention of the defense... which leads to open looks for role players.

We have always been forced to scheme for offense and without a full lineup of dangerous shooters or a high level offense, you just aren't going to get a bunch of open looks.

Post #885 » by **fatlever** » Wed Jan 4, 2023 12:15 am

Read on Twitter

?t=XCPCyoiEw2XUyDEj6O6Jyg&s=19

Hornets are generating good shots. Just can't shoot.

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Post #886 » by **fatlever** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 4:25 pm

Read on Twitter

?t=AduzN-eNi2q-mMm1ujoyiQ&s=19

Hornets have played with 3+ guard lineups among fewest in league. However, when they have gone 3 guards, they've been among the best In net rating.

More evidence Cliff doesn't see value in small ball lineups.

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Robot Rock · Post #887 » by **Robot Rock** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 5:14 pm

fatlever wrote:

Read on Twitter
?t=AduzN-eNi2q-mMm1ujoyiQ&s=19

Hornets have played with 3+ guard lineups among fewest in league. However, when they have gone 3 guards, they've been among the best In net rating.

More evidence Cliff doesn't see value in small ball lineups.

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I remember blowing a 23-point lead to the Magic in 2014, late in the third quarter, once they went with a small-ball lineup.

Post #888 » by **yosemiteben** » Fri Jan 6, 2023 7:07 pm

fatlever wrote:More evidence Cliff doesn't see value in small ball lineups.

How often have we had three guys who would even constitute a guard on our roster that have been healthy? Is this really just saying that Theo or Bryce needs to play more with the starting guard(s)? Do guys like KO, McDaniels, and Hayward even count as guards?

Post #889 » by **fatlever** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:44 pm

wilson115 · Post #890 » by **wilson115** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 10:30 pm

No one fears us. Top 5 team.

SWedd523 · Post #891 » by **SWedd523** » Tue Jan 10, 2023 11:34 pm

fatlever wrote:

So is that saying we should have 7 more wins or we're just bad?

Post #892 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:10 pm

SWedd523 wrote:
fatlever wrote:

So is that saying we should have 7 more wins or we're just bad?

Had the same question

Post #893 » by **fatlever** » Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:27 pm

SWedd523 wrote:
fatlever wrote:

So is that saying we should have 7 more wins or we're just bad?

Yeah, basically... we are generating enough quality shots to have more expected wins, but our entire team, except Melo from 3, is having career worst shooting %s. Or we generate good shots, but our players just suck at actually made open shots.

I guess thus makes Cliff (and Melo or point guards) look good and our players and Mitch look bad.

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Post #894 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Jan 11, 2023 5:04 pm

fatlever wrote:
SWedd523 wrote:
fatlever wrote:

So is that saying we should have 7 more wins or we're just bad?
Yeah, basically... we are generating enough quality shots to have more expected wins, but our entire team, except Melo from 3, is having career worst shooting %s. Or we generate good shots, but our players just suck at actually made open shots.

I guess thus makes Cliff (and Melo or point guards) look good and our players and Mitch look bad.

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Sadly a 7 win swing would still have us sitting outside the play in.

wilson115 · Post #895 » by **wilson115** » Thu Jan 12, 2023 1:02 am

fatlever wrote:
SWedd523 wrote:
fatlever wrote:

So is that saying we should have 7 more wins or we're just bad?
Yeah, basically... we are generating enough quality shots to have more expected wins, but our entire team, except Melo from 3, is having career worst shooting %s. Or we generate good shots, but our players just suck at actually made open shots.

I guess thus makes Cliff (and Melo or point guards) look good and our players and Mitch look bad.

"the opposing defense is allowing enough quality shots to have more expected wins, but our entire team, except Melo from 3, is having career worst shooting %s. Or the opposing defense allows good shots, but our players just suck at actually made open shots."

My take. Durant, Jokic and the Celtics in the upper right, Rozier, Oubre, and the young Rockets and Pistons in the lower left... that's got to play into it somehow.

Braggins · Post #896 » by **Braggins** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 1:54 am

Does anyone know where to find up to date stats on how often teams use zone defense?

GoBobs · Post #897 » by **GoBobs** » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:17 pm

Last year 9th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating

This year 29th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating

One of the big differences is we are using a traditional center more of the time and hardly ever seeing PJ play the 5. Plumlee played almost 1800 total minutes last year in 73 games. This year he has already played 1300 minutes in 46 games. Last year Richards and Carey combined for 384 minutes while this year Richards and M. Williams have already combined for 860 minutes.

Rebounding is a little bit improved but overall offense is much worse. Shooting is not just about open looks, but also does the offense have a good flow and rhythm.

I don't think it is all about not going small and honestly both Plumlee and Richards have played really well. With virtually everyone else having worse production though it seems likely that the overall coaching scheeme this year is not as conducive to success.

JB was an average coach, maybe above average some days but not over the top good. Clifford is near the bottom of the league. We should make a change at the end of the year if we want to be better.

JMAC3 · Post #898 » by **JMAC3** » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:36 pm

Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating by Month

Oct- 19th O, 11th Def
Nov- 30th O, 22nd Def
Dec- 28th O, 28th Def
Jan- 15th O, 28th Def

Braggins · Post #899 » by **Braggins** » Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:35 pm

GoBobs wrote:Last year 9th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating

This year 29th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating

One of the big differences is we are using a traditional center more of the time and hardly ever seeing PJ play the 5. Plumlee played almost 1800 total minutes last year in 73 games. This year he has already played 1300 minutes in 46 games. Last year Richards and Carey combined for 384 minutes while this year Richards and M. Williams have already combined for 860 minutes.

Rebounding is a little bit improved but overall offense is much worse. Shooting is not just about open looks, but also does the offense have a good flow and rhythm.

I don't think it is all about not going small and honestly both Plumlee and Richards have played really well. With virtually everyone else having worse production though it seems likely that the overall coaching scheeme this year is not as conducive to success.

JB was an average coach, maybe above average some days but not over the top good. Clifford is near the bottom of the league. We should make a change at the end of the year if we want to be better.

I was listening to a podcast the other day where there was some analytics discussion going on and someone mentioned that zone defense usage was up quite a bit across the league this season, with some of the top defenses using it a lot (particularly Miami). I thought that was interesting because JB got criticized a ton last season for using so much zone/junk defense and yet the team finished 22nd in defRTG last season, compared to 27th this year, despite having what I would argue is a worse roster defensively.

I still think Cliffords offensive system sucks, but I don't think you can really blame him for the huge offensive drop from last season to this season. Hes got 0 games from Miles and LaMelo has missed a ton of time, so that makes sense. However, Clifford has DSJ/Maledon as backup PG options instead of Ish Smith and IT. Clifford has been playing nearly 100% with a traditional center and PJ exclusively at PF, whereas JB had Miles at PF mostly and played PJ a ton of minutes at center. Still, the team has been relatively worse on defense this year.

I wish I could find stats on team zone usage to compare how much JB used zone last season compared to teams this season and how Clifford compares. Its starting to seem like despite all the criticism that JB's defensive strategy last season may have actually been ahead of the curve and the team may have actually been overperforming defensively under JB.

Post #900 » by **yosemiteben** » Sun Jan 22, 2023 3:51 pm

I honestly would prefer we have a **** defense but actually start emphasizing fundamentals to our young guys, particularly Melo, rather than play a junk defense and just reinforce the total lack of discipline and fundamentals. The long term ceiling of this franchise is going to be seriously impacted by Melo, and that dude needs a wake up call with regard to his bad defensive habits.