The On-Off debate about Luka

[Special_Puppy]

Luka’s Long Term and Medium Term RAPM are also underwhelming. I still think he’s a top 5 player in the league but box score based metrics probably significantly overrate Luka

[dirkdiggler4177]

If I were you I would just watch some games and ask myself if he is improving the team or not? Like, you care enough to look up the numbers and write a post about it.

[juanc]

Lineup consistency is a huge factor with on/off, Plus/minus IMO. At the beggining of march the mavs were one of the only teams that didn't have a 5 man lineup that played more than 100 minutes together(for the season!). Meanwhile, OKC/Denver starting 5 have had more than 500 minutes together. Luka's on/off was at around 4,5 then. It grew to 9,1 in the last month and a half, that's the time when Kidd stared using Kyrie-Luka-DJJ-PJ-Gafford starting five(they are the only Mavs lineup that had more than 100 minutes for the season - total of 176 min), and Luka's on/off took off.

For example, the Nuggets starting 5 has played a total of 958 minutes together, OKC starting 5 799 minutes. I think this is the biggest factor when it comes to on/off plus minus

[Anticon]

I think plus minus is probably the wrong stat to look at for him.

Given how he dominates the ball, assist to turn over ratio, points per possession, opposing player shooting %, and lineup data would probably be more helpful. You need a more detailed picture of his strengths and weaknesses to assess his performance

It could be as simple as he's a bad defender, doesn't create enough assists for his teammates, turns the ball over too much, or on average he generates lower points per possession than you might think. But plus / minus won't help with those details.

[HotRocks34]

It's a worthy topic but outdated at the moment.

I believe Luka was the only player on either team who had a positive plus minus in every game of the Clips series. And he was hurt and sick.

Legler said maybe a week ago that Luka was a rare talent that Kyrie actually accepts deferring to him, and that he did so because he respects how good Luka is.

I did a Points Created (Pts + Pts From Assists) table in the Jokic MVP thread and Luka is like 10 points per game ahead of #2 Jokic. He's on his own level.

Luka is the best workhorse in the game and now that the roster is more dialed in, things should only improve from here.

Dallas is toast in this playoffs with Sick Gimpy Broke Shot Luka, but the future looks bright.

[Harry Garris]

Well it's not a very good debate.

On/off is an obtuse stat on its face and requires a lot of context to properly understand and be even marginally useful.

[Anticon]

It's a worthy topic but outdated at the moment.

I believe Luka was the only player on either team who had a positive plus minus in every game of the Clips series. And he was hurt and sick.

Legler said maybe a week ago that Luka was a rare talent that Kyrie actually accepts deferring to him, and that he did so because he respects how good Luka is.

I did a Points Created (Pts + Pts From Assists) table in the Jokic MVP thread and Luka is like 10 points per game ahead of #2 Jokic. He's on his own level.

Luka is the best workhorse in the game and now that the roster is more dialed in, things should only improve from here.

Dallas is toast in this playoffs with Sick Gimpy Broke Shot Luka, but the future looks bright.

It's interesting, did those numbers get averaged out by possession at all? The main issue is Luka dominates possessions and can create / score so he'll always produce a lot of points.

But whether that's actually a strong offense is a different question. I'm not trying to be critical of his game, I actually just don't know the answer.

[SlimShady83]

Need to build the right team around him

[HotRocks34]

Here's the Points Created Per Game top 5 this year:

viewtopic.php?t=2377364&start=280#p113028518



Also Luka was #6 in Estimated RAPTOR this year behind only Jokic, SGA, Embiid, Giannis and Kawhi. And his DRAP was positive (good).

He's in good shape and he's definitely improving, which is scary coming off a 33/9/9 year.

[HotRocks34]

It's a worthy topic but outdated at the moment.

I believe Luka was the only player on either team who had a positive plus minus in every game of the Clips series. And he was hurt and sick.

Legler said maybe a week ago that Luka was a rare talent that Kyrie actually accepts deferring to him, and that he did so because he respects how good Luka is.

I did a Points Created (Pts + Pts From Assists) table in the Jokic MVP thread and Luka is like 10 points per game ahead of #2 Jokic. He's on his own level.

Luka is the best workhorse in the game and now that the roster is more dialed in, things should only improve from here.

Dallas is toast in this playoffs with Sick Gimpy Broke Shot Luka, but the future looks bright.

It's interesting, did those numbers get averaged out by possession at all? The main issue is Luka dominates possessions and can create / score so he'll always produce a lot of points.

But whether that's actually a strong offense is a different question. I'm not trying to be critical of his game, I actually just don't know the answer.

Not sure.

Different styles work. Brunson has the top usage in the playoffs and it's working. SGA is like 1.5% usage behind Luka in the playoffs, I think, and it's working.

Dallas would love to have a consistent #3 but I don't think they do right now. If they get that it should lower Luka's usage, and probably for the best.

[NZB2323]

The last 2 years already disprove this isnt an issue, no?

2022-23 4.9
2023-24 9.4

Single season on/off is crazy noisy.

So, no, it hasn't been disproven.

But how can we draw conclusions from data from 3-5 years ago when Brunson was coming off the bench and lighting up bench units to assess how impactful Luka is now?

He makes the playoffs and wins playoff series. On/off for his career is a bunch of noise.

[HotRocks34]

I went back and looked at the Dallas 2022 WCF run and the usage breakdown in the playoffs was this:

Luka.........40%
Brunson...27%
Din............23%


Din was a solid #3 guy IMO and Luka still dominated the ball. Obviously, it worked out ok.

The team has to keep tinkering with this but if they can get a #3 I think that would help. I don't think Timmy is that guy and it remains to be seen IMO if Washington can be that guy.

Luka's USG is down from the regular season in the playoffs (36.0 to 34.3), and that's probably a good thing.

[HotRocks34]

To update, Luka has had a positive plus minus in 10 of 11 playoff games so far this postseason. He's the only Mav with that many.

His only minus outing was Game 1 vs OKC, when every Dallas player was 0 or negative.

I think the Mavs are going to be ok with him.

[Gusto1903]

I mean, theres also the point, that he is top3 in Minutes per Game. That also plays in to the on/off stat, since there is less opportunity for the "off" part of that stat.

[HotRocks34]

Game 5 stats vs OKC (think this is correct; not counting final garbage time minute of the game when Luka came out because Dallas was going to win)

Luka on....+13 (41m)
Luka off.......-2 (6m)
Garbage Time (1m)


Stunning, but yeah the guy 3rd in MVP voting helps his team.

[SlimShady83]

Where's all the Luka haters/doubters now for the game just played? lol of course all quite

Edit: didn't see the game 31pts,11ast 10 reb only 3 TO's pretty solid If you ask me

[AdagioPace]

Lets be honest. People will keep debating about Lukas statistical incongruencies only until he wins MVP or a Championship. Once that happens this debate gets 100% relegated to the player comparison board and disappears from public attention

[Ein Sof]

on-off is a worthless stat though.

[HotRocks34]

Here's the latest 2024 DAL playoff on/off data. Luka is third best on the team behind Kai and Lively (who has been huge).

Through G5 of the WCSF. 11 games total.

[HotRocks34]

Here's how things look for OKC through 9 games of the 2024 playoffs.