Who will be the #1 pick of the 2024 NBA draft?

[madskillz8]

If Cooper Flagg was allowed to be in this draft, would he go number 1 at 17 years old?

Easily. No question. And that #1 overall pick would have tremendous value as a result.

The first few picks are going to be massively overpaid for their likely production. I don’t see anyone that’s *likely* to step on the floor and be a positive contributor as a rookie. Some will, of course, but I don’t think teams are at all sure who it will be.

Most years, you’d never trade #1 overall for say #5, #10, and #20. This year I probably would. It’s that hazy.

Oh, and my guess at #1 is Sarr, who is far from a sure thing to be a good offensive player.

To be fair, this can be said for many lottery picks - their contribution in year 1 often less than what they are being paid.

There are always exceptions and last year these were Wemby and Holmgren. But even Holmgren's rookie season cost OKC 20m$... You can argue he didn't play in the first season but he still got paid and used OKC's cap. Luckily, they have another exception in J. Williams who plays like near max player for 5m$.

[tmorgan]

If Cooper Flagg was allowed to be in this draft, would he go number 1 at 17 years old?

Easily. No question. And that #1 overall pick would have tremendous value as a result.

The first few picks are going to be massively overpaid for their likely production. I don’t see anyone that’s *likely* to step on the floor and be a positive contributor as a rookie. Some will, of course, but I don’t think teams are at all sure who it will be.

Most years, you’d never trade #1 overall for say #5, #10, and #20. This year I probably would. It’s that hazy.

Oh, and my guess at #1 is Sarr, who is far from a sure thing to be a good offensive player.

To be fair, this can be said for many lottery picks - their contribution in year 1 often less than what they are being paid.

There are always exceptions and last year these were Wemby and Holmgren. But even Holmgren's rookie season cost OKC 20m$... You can argue he didn't play in the first season but he still got paid and used OKC's cap. Luckily, they have another exception in J. Williams who plays like near max player for 5m$.

Very true. But this year’s crop is even worse than usual. Sarr, Risacher, Topic, Castle… they could all very easily REALLY suck as rookies. If I wanted to get the best chance at positive contribution as a rook, I’d probably go with Reed Sheppard, but then you’re all in on a not particularly athletic, kinda short guard and praying his shooting and wild steal and defense numbers translate quickly (if at all). So much risk everywhere in this draft.

[Astaluego]

Risacher doesn't have any skill with the ball...he seems like a good 3D prospect who is shooting the 3 terribly in the second part of the season and the D is assumed because of his size, but there isn't this...I would take A Sarr with him 1...Buzelis for the tools at 2 and Topic at 3 who is a good creator/handler with good size, but a lot of work ahead of him...terrible D and shooting from 3...Complicated draft

[LaLover11]

Bronny is happy he's not a top 5 pick lol nobody wants to play with those terrible teams

[_jin]

I feel like there is one overlooked future all-star in this draft: Tidjane Salaun.

He's raw (who's not at 18) but fundamentally sound, and already great athletically. Less "freak" but more skilled version of Giannis who is proving himself in a pro league albeit not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes the best player out of this class, or just be a scrub who averages 7.5 minutes per game as a rookie before returning to Cholet.

As a Cholet fan, I love Tidjane. Great physical tools, very good defender, promising shooter with some nice post moves, and a smart player overall. I agree with you, depending on context and development, he could end up an all star but he also has bust potential. I dont understand his mock draft rankings, he was as high as #4 in jan/feb and he's finished the season really well and has kept improving but he keeps falling in every mock draft, I've seen him in the 2nd round in some.

[_jin]

Risacher doesn't have any skill with the ball...he seems like a good 3D prospect who is shooting the 3 terribly in the second part of the season and the D is assumed because of his size, but there isn't this...I would take A Sarr with him 1...Buzelis for the tools at 2 and Topic at 3 who is a good creator/handler with good size, but a lot of work ahead of him...terrible D and shooting from 3...Complicated draft

I dont agree with that. He's a good driver and a decent passer. He's shown the discipline to stay within his role because JL Bourg ended up being way more competitive than expected. He's shooting 32% from 3 in the 2nd half of the season but he was shooting 46% in the 1st half. His 3pt shooting volume has also decreased since he's been driving and cutting a lot more in the past few months.

People saw him at #1 in mock drafts and expect him to be a dominant wing but he's not that type of player. The best NBA comparison I can think of is probably Khris Middleton, not a star but a damn good player, who was good enough as the #2 on a championship roster.

[Godymas]

If Cooper Flagg was allowed to be in this draft, would he go number 1 at 17 years old?

yes

better question is, where would Wemby go if he was able to be drafted from the moment he went pro. He was 5'11 at a U11 game, played for FC Barcelona in U14, and went pro at age 15 in 2019

in the 2019 draft are you taking Wembanyama ahead of..RJ Barrett?

in the 2020 draft are you taking Wembanyama #1 overall? Ant Man was NOT considered a sure thing for the draft, the #1 pick was highly debatable with both Golden State and Minnesota trying to trade down.

In the 2021 draft, the talk was the top 4 picks were "sure things" and Cade was supposed to be that guy and Jalen Green was considered good enough to be taken ahead of Cade. SGA for Cade was actually a deal people thought was unfair for the Cade pick. Wemby probably goes #3 since Mobley was viewed as a project.

In the 2022 draft the top 3 was also questionable, but at this point Wemby goes #1 overall.

[HotelVitale]

Sarr played in the NBL and I thought LaMelo looked more talented when he was here but obviously has time to develop

If Lamelo was in this draft he'd be the likely #1.

[Mr Peanut]

I think given there's no clear consensus the first pick may well depend on which team ends up drafting at #1 next month.

[Chokic]

2024 Alex Sarr
2025 Cooper Flagg

[Lockdown504090]

Sarr for the team who needs rebounding and defense, Topic for playmaking, Risacher for shooting.

This might be the rare time in a where team makes a 1 pick based on need instead of potential

[TravisScott55]

Sarr probably

[brackdan70]

If Cooper Flagg was allowed to be in this draft, would he go number 1 at 17 years old?

I believe so. He has a lot of hype and potential behind him.

[brackdan70]

I think Topic is the best player…probably comes down to team need though.