Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery?

[KembaWalker]

You missed my EDIT : ".....we'd still be horrible with Cade as well "

Ya, we've been rebuilding the past 5 seasons.

Detroit been rebuilding the past decade and a half.

Have they though, they were a 500 playoff team in 2019 with Blake Griffin playing like an All NBA player, the kind of move everyone thinks should be celebrated, an undesirable market having to go after undesirable players to chase crappy playoff seeds because we can’t even build in the lottery anymore. Turns out chasing wins isn’t sustainable for teams like that because if getting guys like Blake Griffin is the best you can hope for in the trade market or free agency what are you supposed to even do?

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the last decade and a half.

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

[WiggOuts]

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

Because teams rarely ever tank in the NFL or MLB and when they do it’s only for a couple of games at the end of the season.

The NBA is the only sport where teams are intentionally sabotaging their roster in the offseason before the year even starts to try to boost their draft odds.

thats because the impact of a single player in basketball holds way more weight compared to other team sports. Ive heard this argument many times and its just not the same thing

[jkvonny]

Have they though, they were a 500 playoff team in 2019 with Blake Griffin playing like an All NBA player, the kind of move everyone thinks should be celebrated, an undesirable market having to go after undesirable players to chase crappy playoff seeds because we can’t even build in the lottery anymore. Turns out chasing wins isn’t sustainable for teams like that because if getting guys like Blake Griffin is the best you can hope for in the trade market or free agency what are you supposed to even do?

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the last decade and a half.

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

Get a better FO and scouting/development, etc. And ya. A lil luck in the draft, but develope the players!!

Milwaukee, Denver, Utah, San Antonio, OKC, Indiana, etc all have good FO and are mid/small markets as well. Detroit used to be one of the best back then as well.

Example: SA longest rebuild era was back in the mid - late '80s (post Iceman Gervin years) and these past recent seasons. 5-6 seasons at most.
Milwaukee had a long stretch of darkness ('90s)
Denver as well ('90s - early '00s)
Indiana and Utah never really had long stretches of darkness, similar to the Spurs. Brief, like 4, 5, 6 years at most.
But, they all crawled out of them.

Sacramento and Minn did have very long stretches, due to FO ineptness (like Detroit) but has since then crawled out of it. Charlotte is getting there as well, as long as they stay healthy and thir new FO./coaches changes the culture. I think that they will.

EDIT: Dont forget . Detroit had one of the best teams in the league during the 2000s! Got the 2004 NBA championship (upset Lakers in a near sweep)
Also one of the best teams in the NBA mid '80s - early '90s. Won back to back NBA championships . 1989 and 1990.

...it can be done....

[ForeverTFC]

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

In the last 4 years, Detroit has had a number 1 pick, 3 top 5 picks, and 4 top 10 picks. They have passed on Maxey, Hali, IQ, Barnes, Mobley, Sengun, Wagner, Jaylen Williams, Mathurin, Sharpe, Cason Wallace, Podz, Cam Whitmore and JJJ to select Hayes, Cunnigham, Ivey and Thompson.

If you maintain they are bad through no fault of their own, you have to tell me you can't build a very promising roster from the above misses + the players they ended up selecting. At some point, it's simply a function of bad team management. THAT should not be rewarded. I love that the odds have flattened and I'd take it a step further and say no team should be able to pick top 5 in 3 consecutive drafts.

[jkvonny]

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

Because teams rarely ever tank in the NFL or MLB and when they do it’s only for a couple of games at the end of the season.

The NBA is the only sport where teams are intentionally sabotaging their roster in the offseason before the year even starts to try to boost their draft odds.

thats because the impact of a single player in basketball holds way more weight compared to other team sports. Ive heard this argument many times and its just not the same thing

True. esp with MLB.

Many of those high draft picks in MLB never even make it to the big leagues: Get stuck in the minors (peaked out), injuries, go play overseas or Mexico, etc

[ForeverTFC]

Have they though, they were a 500 playoff team in 2019 with Blake Griffin playing like an All NBA player, the kind of move everyone thinks should be celebrated, an undesirable market having to go after undesirable players to chase crappy playoff seeds because we can’t even build in the lottery anymore. Turns out chasing wins isn’t sustainable for teams like that because if getting guys like Blake Griffin is the best you can hope for in the trade market or free agency what are you supposed to even do?

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the last decade and a half.

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

Milwaukee hit middle of the 1st round and built around that to win a championship. The Raptors accumulated and developed assets all over the place on their way to win a championship. Denver hit and proceeded to build the perfect team around their 2nd round pick on their way to a championship. GS drafted all of their core guys and used a one time cap exception to build an absolute juggernaut. 3 of the 4 did not need FA or a high lottery pick to win a championship and the 4th only needed its FA move to build a dynasty, having already won a championship w/o it.

Good team management + some draft luck is the way to go. Banking on multiple top 5 picks to finally drop a star into your lap does not lead to a championship.

[KembaWalker]

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the last decade and a half.

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

Milwaukee hit middle of the 1st round and built around that to win a championship. The Raptors accumulated and developed assets all over the place on their way to win a championship. Denver hit and proceeded to build the perfect team around their 2nd round pick on their way to a championship. GS drafted all of their core guys and used a one time cap exception to build an absolute juggernaut. 3 of the 4 did not need FA or a high lottery pick to win a championship and the 4th only needed its FA move to build a dynasty, having already won a championship w/o it.

Good team management + some draft luck is the way to go. Banking on multiple top 5 picks to finally drop a star into your lap does not lead to a championship.

So yeah you have to hit on a Giannis or Jokic then, this isn’t good management it’s just luck, just like being an agreeable spot for a 1 year kawhi rental was luck. None of this screams “great management” the Nuggets and Bucks will spend another 30 years praying for lucky hits like that and not get them and their management won’t be able to do anything about it just like they were nothing special before

[jkvonny]

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the last decade and a half.

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

Milwaukee hit middle of the 1st round and built around that to win a championship. The Raptors accumulated and developed assets all over the place on their way to win a championship. Denver hit and proceeded to build the perfect team around their 2nd round pick on their way to a championship. GS drafted all of their core guys and used a one time cap exception to build an absolute juggernaut. 3 of the 4 did not need FA or a high lottery pick to win a championship and the 4th only needed its FA move to build a dynasty, having already won a championship w/o it.

Good team management + some draft luck is the way to go. Banking on multiple top 5 picks to finally drop a star into your lap does not lead to a championship.

Good post and true.

Also, FWIW, Toronto and GSW arent small markets. But yes, they did build organically for the most part.

[jkvonny]

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

Milwaukee hit middle of the 1st round and built around that to win a championship. The Raptors accumulated and developed assets all over the place on their way to win a championship. Denver hit and proceeded to build the perfect team around their 2nd round pick on their way to a championship. GS drafted all of their core guys and used a one time cap exception to build an absolute juggernaut. 3 of the 4 did not need FA or a high lottery pick to win a championship and the 4th only needed its FA move to build a dynasty, having already won a championship w/o it.

Good team management + some draft luck is the way to go. Banking on multiple top 5 picks to finally drop a star into your lap does not lead to a championship.

So yeah you have to hit on a Giannis or Jokic then, this isn’t good management it’s just luck, just like being an agreeable spot for a 1 year kawhi rental was luck. None of this screams “great management” the Nuggets and Bucks will spend another 30 years praying for lucky hits like that and not get them and their management won’t be able to do anything about it just like they were nothing special before

Denver and Milwaukee never had to wait 30 years in between for good draft picks to pan out.
Nuggets: MPJ, Melo, Jokic, Dikembe, etc
Nuggets longest rebuild was during the '90s (pretty much the entire decade).

Bucks: Giannis, Jennings, Bogut, Redd, Moncrief, Alex English (ended up great career with Nuggets too). Kareem, Randy Breuer, etc
Bucks longest rebuild was during the '90s (7 straight seasons).

[madmaxmedia]

As a Magic fan who has had to put up with years of mediocrity and the lottery draw being our superbowl, I think that the odds of getting No 1 should lengthen if you had a high lottery pick in the previous three years.

This idea of tanking for a decade and having the league repeatedly reward you not just for mediocrity, but for actually deliberately failing, is an insult to the teams who are trying and being well run.

If the league rewards you with a high pick for being bad, you should do something with that. If you dont - and continue to tank - the league should help you less and less im subsequent drafts. The real draft junkies are GMs in bad teams.

So, to answer the OP, if the lottery balls "screw" the Pistons in what is their umpteenth lottery pick of the decade... tough shít.

I don't think the Magic should have been allowed to build their young team like that either. It rewards front office incompetence, imo.

I think the current system is fine as is. But your idea has been suggested in one form or another before here, and I think would be a good potential contribution to the existing lottery system.

You could revert the odds back a bit in favor of the really bad teams, but then add in a factor for having had high lottery picks the last couple of years. So a team that has been really bad on the floor and bad at the lottery for a couple of years gets a little bit of a boost.

[Special_Puppy]

Yeah I think its *too* flat now. I'd do something in between the old and new lottery odds

[TheSuzerain]

I don't know why people are crying for Detroit.

They are an incompetent organization. Fix that and then get back to me.

[Special_Puppy]

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

Because teams rarely ever tank in the NFL or MLB and when they do it’s only for a couple of games at the end of the season.

The NBA is the only sport where teams are intentionally sabotaging their roster in the offseason before the year even starts to try to boost their draft odds.

thats because the impact of a single player in basketball holds way more weight compared to other team sports. Ive heard this argument many times and its just not the same thing

Its also because the NBA draft is very top-heavy compared to other sports. There's a huge difference between even the number 1 and number 3 picks. Not the case in the NFL or MLB

[Sheeeeed]

Should make the odds less flat, and do what the NHL is doing. Since the Blackhawks won last year and got 2nd overall this year, they can't hold a top 3 spot for another 3 years.

[MrGoat]

I don't know why people are crying for Detroit.

They are an incompetent organization. Fix that and then get back to me.

San Antonio had been just as incompetent, both teams had their last playoff appearance in 2019 and have been garbage ever since. San Antonio lucked out and drafted Wemby last draft. Are you really going to argue that Detroit wouldn't look better right now if they had the luck to draft Wemby?

San Antonio jumped into the top 4 again this time with a sub 50% chance of doing so. If anything, the rule fix should bar the winner of the #1 pick from jumping into the prime spots the year after winning the #1 pick. Why should San Antonio be rewarded for only winning 22 games right after drafting a generational talent? Detroit is now more encouraged to just tank now and wait until they get lucky, Cooper Flagg is available next time after all. Their only other option is to seriously overpay some vets for the Houston route (I'd at least give Brooklyn a call about Mikal Bridges to gauge their interest in the #5 pick and maybe a bit more as long as the 2025 pick doesn't enter the equation).

[DaPessimist]

Working as intended. I don't see a big difference between the bottom 5-8 teams. Hopefully teams will see these results and think twice about tanking for the very bottom.

Also, outside of the rare generational #1 pick (like Wemby), there are no guarantees. Invest in your scouting teams and pick the best player in the draft at the #5 pick.

[D.Brasco]

I don't know why people are crying for Detroit.

They are an incompetent organization. Fix that and then get back to me.

It's the new vibe, losers should be rewarded for losing. I've seen a whole bunch of unironic posts online with people saying variations of "Detroit lost the best so they deserve to be rewarded".

[NZB2323]

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

I don’t know about MLB, but NFL teams don’t tank. No NFL franchise did what the 76ers did.

[JustBuzzin]

Detroit is a ghost town. They should be lucky they still have a NBA franchise.

[NZB2323]

Have they though, they were a 500 playoff team in 2019 with Blake Griffin playing like an All NBA player, the kind of move everyone thinks should be celebrated, an undesirable market having to go after undesirable players to chase crappy playoff seeds because we can’t even build in the lottery anymore. Turns out chasing wins isn’t sustainable for teams like that because if getting guys like Blake Griffin is the best you can hope for in the trade market or free agency what are you supposed to even do?

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the last decade and a half.

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

Small Market Teams
OKC
Minnesota
Denver
Cavs
Pistons
Heat
Magic
Hornets
Milwaukee
Sacramento
Grizzlies
Pelicans
Spurs
Jazz
Trailblazers
Pacers

Big Market Teams
Knicks
Nets
Bulls
Lakers
Clippers
76ers
Mavs
Raptors
Warriors
Hawks
Rockets
Wizards
Suns
Celtics

Big market teams can make stupid deals also. Look at the Clippers and the Paul George trade, the Atlanta Hawks and the Trae Young trade, or the Suns and the Beal trade. The Bucks made a win-now trade for Jrue Holiday and they won a Championship and the Nuggets made a win-now trade for Aaron Gordon and they won it all. Minnesota and Cleveland made win-now moves for Gobert and Mitchell hoping to contend.

The Nuggets and Bucks won recently. The Thunder have SGA and a million picks. The Spurs have Wemby. If Ja and Zion can get their lives together and stay healthy, the Grizzlies and Pelicans may become contenders. The Jazz have a million picks. The Pacers have Hali.

The Bulls are stuck in the play-in tournament, the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, and Warriors have players who are over the hill, and the Wizards might be the most laughable team now. It used to be the Clippers or Knicks who are from big markets.

Not sure this is a big market/small market issue.