nikster wrote:GrandTheftRondo wrote:nikster wrote:Yeah nothing to do with Lebron being old and injury prone right?
That definitely affected things but there’s no way he achieves the same streak playing in the West from 2011-2018.
I agree he's not making the finals every year, but it's clearly not as bad as we've seen in his time with thr Lakers.
Also think it's generally overstated how easy he had it and glossed over how much adversity he faced (we've seen so many super teams fail for similar reasons). Bosh missed most of 2012 eastern run, Wade was brutal in the 2013 eastern conference run, Love went down early 2015, No Irving 2018 etc...
I think it’s right to point out that LeBron’s teams didn’t always have good luck in the playoffs in terms of health. Those Heat teams had some issues and still won, which was impressive.
But I do think LeBron probably doesn’t make many Finals in the West—at least if we don’t go too far down the butterfly-effect road. LeBron’s teams got very handily beaten in the Finals in 2007, 2014, 2017, and 2018. I think it’s very safe to assume those teams would not have made the Finals if they’d been in the West, since there was a team in the West that was clearly superior to them. I think the 2011 Heat were capable of beating the 2011 Mavericks, so in an alternate reality maybe they would, but in reality they lost a 6-game series to the Mavs, so they probably can’t make it through the West that year either. There’s an argument the Cavs could’ve made the Finals in the West in 2015, because they might’ve met the Warriors earlier when they were healthier. But Love was injured in the first round, and Kyrie got injured in the conference semifinals and had to miss games in the conference finals, so I don’t think they get a healthy shot at the Warriors even if they were in the West (and of course they very well might’ve lost even if they were healthy), so they likely don’t get out of the West that year either.
That leaves the years they won the title in 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2020. 2020 is obviously self-explanatory since LeBron was in the Western Conference that year. As for the other three years, obviously, our baseline assumption should be that LeBron’s team would’ve gotten out of the West in a year where they won the Finals against the team that won the West. But that’s not totally clear. The 2016 playoffs is a really good example. The Cavaliers beat the Warriors in the Finals, but if they were in the West they would’ve needed to beat the Spurs or Thunder too. And either of those teams would’ve been tremendously tough teams that the Cavs probably would’ve only had about a 50/50 shot against. In 2012 and 2013, the road to the Finals would’ve been harder and probably involved beating a genuinely good team outside of just the Western Conference team that the Heat beat in the Finals, but I do think it’s unlikely that the Heat lose to anyone in the West in those years (even accounting for Bosh and Wade having some issues in those years).
Ultimately, my baseline guess is that LeBron would’ve made the Finals four times in the West. I think he would’ve made it in 2012 and 2013, and obviously he made it in 2020. And I think it would’ve happened one time between 2011, 2015, and 2016. There’s little argument for the other years IMO. The flip side of this is that if LeBron were in the West, then his teams would’ve virtually certainly won the title every time they made the Finals. So I think we’re looking at a similar number of titles, just with a lot fewer Finals appearances and a better Finals record.
