Hypothetical: Would Joel Embiid be the greatest player of his generation if he were healthy?

[eyeatoma]

His style of play is not sustainable.

So he would probably be 70% of the player he is now in order to be healthy.

He would be a solid all star with good defense but still can't pass to save his life.

Even when he was healthy against the Celtics he got swept. He doesn't make any of his teammates better.

He wasn't even close to this version of himself during the bubble. His game improved exponentially. Must less post dominance and far more mid range.

[JimmyPlopper]

But judging his actual basketball skill combined with his size - its something that is probably only a handful of people in NBA history that could offer a similar combination

[RB34]

No, to be the greatest player you need to perform in the playoffs.

He’s notorious for disappearing in the 4th quarter.

Maybe if he cut out all the pregame burgers etc.

[Cubbies2120]

So we erase one players physical flaws (his inability to stay healthy), can we erase other players physical flaws in this hypothetical or does only one get the benefit?

For example, in this hypothetical, can we enhance Jokic's physical attributes and make him have the lateral movement defensively of a prime KG? Or are we only enhancing one player?

[sp6r=underrated]

His career would be a lot better if he could stay healthy. I think they're wrong but there are enough smart, people employed in basketball who think Embiid is better than Jokic that I can't dismiss them even though I think they're wrong. And if they're right he would be the best player of his gen.

That said being able to stay on the court is a huge part of what makes a player great. Shaq's generation of elite players was basically destroyed by injuries. Zo, Penny, Hill were all HOF level players who would have accomplished a lot more but couldn't stay heathy. Embiid is better than those guys but he can't stay healthy.

He is far better than Jokic these playoffs, even after being injured if you look at On/Off impact.

Now this is your typical BS. Everyone who understands +/- stats know you need a huge sample size to evaluate players. Even one RS isn't enough which is why the best +/- stats either incorporate prior seasons or box scores to improve reliability.

Making judgments based off of a 6 game sample size to say far better is your typical Embiid trolling.

[eyeatoma]

So we erase one players physical flaws (his inability to stay healthy), can we erase other players physical flaws in this hypothetical or does only one get the benefit?

For example, in this hypothetical, can we enhance Jokic's physical attributes and make him have the lateral movement defensively of a prime KG? Or are we only enhancing one player?

Difference is we've never seen Jokic be a rim protector. That's a dream, not reality. Healthy Embiid in reality is the most dominant player offensively and defensively in the league, and it really can't be disputed with the numbers backing it up.

[eyeatoma]

His career would be a lot better if he could stay healthy. I think they're wrong but there are enough smart, people employed in basketball who think Embiid is better than Jokic that I can't dismiss them even though I think they're wrong. And if they're right he would be the best player of his gen.

That said being able to stay on the court is a huge part of what makes a player great. Shaq's generation of elite players was basically destroyed by injuries. Zo, Penny, Hill were all HOF level players who would have accomplished a lot more but couldn't stay heathy. Embiid is better than those guys but he can't stay healthy.

He is far better than Jokic these playoffs, even after being injured if you look at On/Off impact.

Now this is your typical BS. Everyone who understands +/- stats know you need a huge sample size to evaluate players. Even one RS isn't enough which is why the best +/- stats either incorporate prior seasons or box scores to improve reliability.

Making judgments based off of a 6 game sample size to say far better is your typical Embiid trolling.

Sure then look at the huge sample size when Embiid was dominating in EPM this season prior to his injury and far better than Jokic.

[eyeatoma]

No, to be the greatest player you need to perform in the playoffs.

He’s notorious for disappearing in the 4th quarter.

Maybe if he cut out all the pregame burgers etc.

The idea would be if he were healthy he would be good in the playoffs and have atleast one if not multiple chips.

[sp6r=underrated]

His career would be a lot better if he could stay healthy. I think they're wrong but there are enough smart, people employed in basketball who think Embiid is better than Jokic that I can't dismiss them even though I think they're wrong. And if they're right he would be the best player of his gen.

That said being able to stay on the court is a huge part of what makes a player great. Shaq's generation of elite players was basically destroyed by injuries. Zo, Penny, Hill were all HOF level players who would have accomplished a lot more but couldn't stay heathy. Embiid is better than those guys but he can't stay healthy.

He is far better than Jokic these playoffs, even after being injured if you look at On/Off impact.

Now this is your typical BS. Everyone who understands +/- stats know you need a huge sample size to evaluate players. Even one RS isn't enough which is why the best +/- stats either incorporate prior seasons or box scores to improve reliability.

Making judgments based off of a 6 game sample size to say far better is your typical Embiid trolling.

Sure then look at the huge sample size when Embiid was dominating in EPM this season prior to his injury and far better than Jokic.

Again even 30-40 games isn't a huge sample size. Plus/minus requires years of data.

[sp6r=underrated]

Healthy Embiid in reality is the most dominant player offensively and defensively in the league

If he was great as you think the Sixers would play at a much higher level than they do given that his top supporting players have been uniformly better than Jokic.

Teammates Embiid has played with:

25 All-Star selections
14 All-NBA selections
1 MVP

Titles: 0
ECF appearances: 0

Teammates Jokic has played with:

0 All-Star appearances
0 All-NBA selections
0 MVPs

Titles: 1
WCF appearances: 2

You'd think if Embiid was this god his teams would play at a higher level.

[JRoy]

No.

Embiid would not be that player.

[eyeatoma]

No.

Embiid would not be that player.

Yeah but Brandon Roy would be lol...

[eyeatoma]

Healthy Embiid in reality is the most dominant player offensively and defensively in the league

If he was great as you think the Sixers would play at a much higher level than they do given that his top supporting players have been uniformly better than Jokic.

Teammates Embiid has played with:

25 All-Star selections
14 All-NBA selections
1 MVP

Titles: 0
ECF appearances: 0

Teammates Jokic has played with:

0 All-Star appearances
0 All-NBA selections
0 MVPs

Titles: 1
WCF appearances: 2

You'd think if Embiid was this god his teams would play at a higher level.

They actually do. Throughout his career in the playoffs, they are a massively better team then when he goes on the bench.

[AleksandarN]

If Murray doesn’t get hurt Jokic would have more than one Championship going by Eyeatoma’s logic. Jokic would still be the greatest of his generation

[lessthanjake]

Maybe. But I’d still have a lot of concerns. A few of them, in no particular order:

1. He plays a style of basketball that focuses a lot on high FT volume, and that is a style of play that historically doesn’t translate well in the playoffs, where FTs aren’t called as easily. Embiid is also just a giant human being that, even leaving aside injury/health issues, is never going to have huge stamina. That becomes a bigger deal in the playoffs, when the intensity gets higher, the game gets more tiring, and superstar minutes go up. So I think our baseline assumption should be that Embiid would always be a playoff dropper to a somewhat significant degree. Of course, perhaps a healthy Embiid would be such a great regular season player that even dropping in the playoffs would leave him incredibly good, but this does give me pause.

2. It’s not actually completely clear to me that Embiid would get all the foul calls he get if he were healthy. IMO, refs do give an easy whistle to Joel in general, compared to what a lot of other huge and dominant big men have gotten. I do think there’s an element of that that is the league trying to protect Joel from injury—he’s a major star and it’s better for the NBA if he’s healthy, so there’s reason for them to try to disincentivize rough and physical play with Embiid. If he were a healthy player in general, I think he’d lose that kid-glove treatment and probably get called like most healthy dominant big men (i.e. they’re allowed to be mauled a lot without fouls), which would likely somewhat mitigate the positive effect of being healthy. I will note that this issue actually overlaps with point #1 above, in that if a healthy Embiid got less foul calls then he’d also be less reliant on foul calls and therefore less likely to be a playoff dropper.

3. I have concerns about Embiid’s mentality. We don’t have a complete window into someone, nor are we around them all the time, so I say this with a real grain of salt. But Embiid seems very quick to feel sorry for himself and to make excuses. I don’t think that’s the ideal mentality for a player to overcome adversity (which will always come in some way) or to lead others. Of course, some of feeling sorry for himself is precisely because of all the injuries, which must be genuinely extremely frustrating. But I think there’s more to it than that. And I do feel like some of this is having his NBA upbringing be on a team that was actively trying to lose for the first several years he was there. It was an organization that did not incentivize people to be accountable and, quite the opposite, basically wanted any excuse to have players not play or not play hard. I don’t think that helped Embiid’s mentality as a player, and I think he’d probably have a better mentality now if he’d been drafted by a different organization.

4. As with any player with perpetual health issues, we do have to ask ourselves whether the things that make him great are also in part the things that give him health issues. Like, Embiid is a massive human being. His size and power is a huge part of what makes him such a good player. But players of his size are also often very injury-prone because there’s just a lot of weight being put on various parts of their bodies (knees, feet, etc.). Could someone have all the things about Embiid physically that makes him great, without having there be health issues? If we are positing an Embiid with no health issues, does that mean we’re also toning down his size or something in order to take those health issues away? And, if so, how much less good does that make him?

Ultimately, though, these aren’t necessarily dispositive concerns. Maybe it is possible to have the good parts of Embiid’s body while being totally healthy. And if Embiid were a totally healthy player, maybe he would get less foul calls and be a bit of a playoff dropper, but also just be so great that that wouldn’t stop him from having huge team success in the playoffs. And maybe without injuries and with team success, he’d have developed a totally different mentality. In that case, I think the talent is there for him to have potentially been the best player of his generation.

[eyeatoma]

If Murray doesn’t get hurt Jokic would have more than one Championship going by Eyeatoma’s logic. Jokic would still be the greatest of his generation

Yes, that's possible.

[AleksandarN]

If Murray doesn’t get hurt Jokic would have more than one Championship going by Eyeatoma’s logic. Jokic would still be the greatest of his generation

Yes, that's possible.

Better than Embiid fully healthy. Which then makes your thread pointless

[eyeatoma]

Maybe. But I’d still have a lot of concerns. A few of them, in no particular order:

1. He plays a style of basketball that focuses a lot on high FT volume, and that is a style of play that historically doesn’t translate well in the playoffs, where FTs aren’t called as easily. Embiid is also just a giant human being that, even leaving aside injury/health issues, is never going to have huge stamina. That becomes a bigger deal in the playoffs, when the intensity gets higher, the game gets more tiring, and superstar minutes go up. So I think our baseline assumption should be that Embiid would always be a playoff dropper to a somewhat significant degree. Of course, perhaps a healthy Embiid would be such a great regular season player that even dropping in the playoffs would leave him incredibly good, but this does give me pause.

2. It’s not actually completely clear to me that Embiid would get all the foul calls he get if he were healthy. IMO, refs do give an easy whistle to Joel in general, compared to what a lot of other huge and dominant big men have gotten. I do think there’s an element of that that is the league trying to protect Joel from injury—he’s a major star and it’s better for the NBA if he’s healthy, so there’s reason for them to try to disincentivize rough and physical play with Embiid. If he were a healthy player in general, I think he’d lose that kid-glove treatment and probably get called like most healthy dominant big men (i.e. they’re allowed to be mauled a lot without fouls), which would likely somewhat mitigate the positive effect of being healthy. I will note that this issue actually overlaps with point #1 above, in that if a healthy Embiid got less foul calls then he’d also be less reliant on foul calls and therefore less likely to be a playoff dropper.

3. I have concerns about Embiid’s mentality. We don’t have a complete window into someone, nor are we around them all the time, so I say this with a real grain of salt. But Embiid seems very quick to feel sorry for himself and to make excuses. I don’t think that’s the ideal mentality for a player to overcome adversity (which will always come in some way) or to lead others. Of course, some of feeling sorry for himself is precisely because of all the injuries, which must be genuinely extremely frustrating. But I think there’s more to it than that. And I do feel like some of this is having his NBA upbringing be on a team that was actively trying to lose for the first several years he was there. It was an organization that did not incentivize people to be accountable and, quite the opposite, basically wanted any excuse to have players not play or not play hard. I don’t think that helped Embiid’s mentality as a player, and I think he’d probably have a better mentality now if he’d been drafted by a different organization.

4. As with any player with perpetual health issues, we do have to ask ourselves whether the things that make him great are also in part the things that give him health issues. Like, Embiid is a massive human being. His size and power is a huge part of what makes him such a good player. But players of his size are also very injury-prone because there’s just a lot of weight being put on various parts of their bodies (knees, feet, etc.). Could someone have all the things about Embiid physically that makes him great, without having there be health issues? If we are positing an Embiid with no health issues, does that mean we’re also toning down his size or something in order to take those health issues away? And, if so, how much less good does that make him?

Ultimately, though, these aren’t necessarily dispositive concerns. Maybe it is possible to have the good parts of Embiid’s body while being totally healthy. And if Embiid were a totally healthy player, maybe he would get less foul calls and be a bit of a playoff dropper, but also just be so great that that wouldn’t stop him from having huge team success in the playoffs. And maybe without injuries and with team success, he’d have developed a totally different mentality. In that case, I think the talent is there for him to have potentially been the best player of his generation.

Once again he was leading the league in FT attempts this post season.

A lot of the mentality stuff as I mentioned is tied to his injuries as you said, this is if he were not hurt. Show me a mopey EMbiid when he's healthy?

#3 is probably the closest thing to be true. His style is what gets him hurt definitely has value. However many of his injuries were freak, 2 orbital bone fractures (Fultz smashing his shoulder into his eyesocket on a screen,and Pascal's elbow on a drive to the rim, 2 meniscus tears (Kuminga landing on his leg when he's on the floor), torn finger ligament on a dunk, and Bell's Palsy. He's likely the most unlucky star in the history of the NBA with regards to injuries.

[Cubbies2120]

So we erase one players physical flaws (his inability to stay healthy), can we erase other players physical flaws in this hypothetical or does only one get the benefit?

For example, in this hypothetical, can we enhance Jokic's physical attributes and make him have the lateral movement defensively of a prime KG? Or are we only enhancing one player?

Difference is we've never seen Jokic be a rim protector. That's a dream, not reality. Healthy Embiid in reality is the most dominant player offensively and defensively in the league, and it really can't be disputed with the numbers backing it up.

It depends on if you value numbers put up against bottom feeders more than numbers put up against locked in playoff defenses, tbh.

I value the latter, but I can't blame you for valuing the former.

We've seen Jokic step up significantly on defense in the clutch. A simple search of "Jokic gamewinning blocks" will return a few results...

Hey, I know, let's use that as a hypothetical: Jokic's clutch defense is now available for 48 minutes a game because his physical enhancement is unlimited energy!

"We've seen him do it before, only thing holding him back is [physical flaw]" - Applies to both Jokic and Embiid here

[JRoy]

No.

Embiid would not be that player.

Yeah but Brandon Roy would be lol...

No, not him either.