Why Rudy Gobert deserved DPOY over Wemby

[Texas Chuck]

so you are citing blocks as your evidence while getting mad I talked about blocks. Can't make this up.

And you said if Wemby was on the Wolves he would win the award. That's about a maybe.

We will just hard disagree he was a better defender this year than Gobert. But I get it you want your player to be loved and anyone who doesn't declare him GOAT right now is in your crosshairs.

Odd approach, I can love JJ Barea even if ya'll don't.

[Bornstellar]

so you are citing blocks as your evidence while getting mad I talked about blocks. Can't make this up.

And you said if Wemby was on the Wolves he would win the award. That's about a maybe.

We will just hard disagree he was a better defender this year than Gobert. But I get it you want your player to be loved and anyone who doesn't declare him GOAT right now is in your crosshairs.

Odd approach, I can love JJ Barea even if ya'll don't.

No, I posted some graphics that included other stats like def rating and on/off impact and yet you focus on blocks only. You're also twisting my argument, I never got mad that you talked about blocks but only that you equated him to Marcus Camby. And again, no one said anything about declaring him the GOAT. I guess when you can't make a coherent argument you have to try to twist someone else's though. I also didn't say he would win on the Wolves only that the would blow Rudy's impact out of the water. Again, misrepresenting someone's words. Can't make this up

Maybe you should stick to ruling over the TnT forum and talking fantasy trades bud because you're flailing pretty bad here

[Texas Chuck]

No, I posted some graphics that included other stats like def rating and on/off impact ande

I've tried to be nice.....

So you say Wemby should win because his teammates are clueless defensively and Gobert plays with studs. Then want to cite as evidence hes' better these on/off stats. So if you play with a bunch of clueless players you are going to have really impressive plus/minus numbers. But that doesn't prove you are a better defender, it just proves you play with bad defenders. You know who else used to look just like this? Rudy Gobert in Utah. Utah played offensive lineups and trusted Rudy would make the defense good enough. And it worked. They were a very good team for years like this.

Wemby is a very good defensive player. I think 2nd was too high, but whatever. But saying he's not as good as Gobert as a rookie is just reality, its not an insult.

You don't even see the circular nature of your arguments because you want Wemby to be the best. I don't want Gobert to be the best. I have no rooting interest so I look at all the information. You look at what you want and interpret it the way you want to get a result you want.

Which is cool. Makes you a great fan. But makes getting mad at me pointless. You don't really want to know who is best. You want Wemby to be best.

[Bornstellar]

Circular argument when you just said a whole lot of nothing thanks for playing. Sorry you're mad for getting called out over making a hilariously bad comparison to Marcus Camby and are now talking about Utah for some reason

Let me know when you have actual data/evidence other than your own feelings

[Capn'O]

All I know is when the Knicks played the Spurs in March we were terrified to take the lane in a way I've never seen before. Guys were missing bunnies because they were looking over their shoulders like grade school kids when their teenage brother decides he wants to play with them.

[dhsilv2]

Wemby is way better than Gobert, no one is scared of Gobert.

LOL, I guess I must have imagined the numerous times I've seen players drive, see Gobert coming to help and make an executive decision to shoot a midrange jumper or kick the ball out.

That’s every game with Wemby too though. There’s even video compilations of this floating around on social media.

Nobody said that wasn't true. Someone actually said NOBODY is scared of Gobert which is just a comical statement.

[Texas Chuck]

Circular argument when you just said a whole lot of nothing thanks for playing. Sorry you're mad for getting called out over making a hilariously bad comparison to Marcus Camby and are now talking about Utah for some reason

Let me know when you have actual data/evidence other than your own feelings

Cheers mate. Definitely not mad. Was honestly trying to help you take a different look. I should have looked at the avatar and just agreed with you from the beginning. It's definitely my bad. You 100% win this exchange.

Hope they get the kid some help this summer and hope he can avoid the super tall man injuries so we can see what he becomes. Should be an incredible watch if he can stay healthy.

[shrink]

It’s particularly unfair to Gobert to use on-off stats, when he’s replaced by Sixth Man of the Year, Naz Reid.

[dhsilv2]

Meanwhile, you put Wemby on the Wolves and let him focus only on defense, he is going to completely blow Rudy's impact out of the water. But to me this would be kinda like Tatum winning the MVP simply because he is the best player on the best team, which we all know he is not the MVP this season

I don't have a problem with Gobert winning due to narrative, I get it. But when someone starts claiming Gobert is a "superior" defender and are trying to compare Marcus Camby to Wembanyama, that is where I have a problem

You are okay with awarding Wemby the DPOY on what he might do in theory.

That's a much bigger problem than me pointing out that some casual fans have cited his block totals which is why Camby has DPOY that should belong to Duncan.

I think Wemby is an infinitely better defensive prospect than Camby. Do I think he's better than the best defensive player of a generation today? Nope.

I'm never telling anyone not to love their guy. Love him. Hype him. But I'm simply attempting to look at who is playing better defense this season and its Gobert. I'm not interested in what might have been had situations been completely different. The award is about reality not guesswork.

What he might do in theory? WTF are you talking about I think he should have been awarded due to him being the single best defensive player last season regardless of his teammates, so not sure what you're going on about there. And guesswork? He is plenty of hard data for you:

Read on Twitter

Nothing to do wih guesswork

Dude...stop! If you're going to build a stats argument when complaining about the Camby comp, don't post THESE stats!

[Bornstellar]

You are okay with awarding Wemby the DPOY on what he might do in theory.

That's a much bigger problem than me pointing out that some casual fans have cited his block totals which is why Camby has DPOY that should belong to Duncan.

I think Wemby is an infinitely better defensive prospect than Camby. Do I think he's better than the best defensive player of a generation today? Nope.

I'm never telling anyone not to love their guy. Love him. Hype him. But I'm simply attempting to look at who is playing better defense this season and its Gobert. I'm not interested in what might have been had situations been completely different. The award is about reality not guesswork.

What he might do in theory? WTF are you talking about I think he should have been awarded due to him being the single best defensive player last season regardless of his teammates, so not sure what you're going on about there. And guesswork? He is plenty of hard data for you:

Read on Twitter

Nothing to do wih guesswork

Dude...stop! If you're going to build a stats argument when complaining about the Camby comp, don't post THESE stats!

I didn't realize blocks were the only stat on there

[Myth]

OP, could you show us how this works out for the last 10 years? 20? It is easy to say "see, this supports my arguement" for one year, but is it consistent?

[dhsilv2]

What he might do in theory? WTF are you talking about I think he should have been awarded due to him being the single best defensive player last season regardless of his teammates, so not sure what you're going on about there. And guesswork? He is plenty of hard data for you:


Nothing to do wih guesswork

Dude...stop! If you're going to build a stats argument when complaining about the Camby comp, don't post THESE stats!

I didn't realize blocks were the only stat on there

They might as well have been. Raw on/off shows us who has worse teammates more than anything. Steals and deflections don't add much value when comparing different types of players. PJ Tucker played 17 nba games before he was about 27 and has now built a near 900 game career + playoffs off his defense. Yet peaked at 1.6 steals a game. Steals, blocks, and deflections are tools we can look to for defense, but they ultimately only show a tiny amount of defensive impact.

I don't want to go into a never ending series of metric posting, but just grabbing LEBRON because it's well known and has a deep and rich data set, we have a D-LEBRON of 3.28 vs 2.50 between the two players. So just through using a ridge regression attempt at plus minus (which is inherently more accurate than raw or even APM), we see a pretty good sized gap. And I'm well aware we can go find other methods to show the opposite.

Meanwhile, those types of stats posted are exactly why Camby won a DPOY over Duncan. Because Duncan did nothings like, always being in the right spot. He'd challenge a shot with his length without jumping or without needing to close out hard on the shooter. This allowed Duncan to blockout for rebounds or for teammates to get them.

Wemby might be the most talented and even exciting defender in decades. But you'll not win an argument showing me that his length gets a lot of deflections, blocks and steals. You need to show me the ability to maximize location and impact through disciplined defensive reads and consistent high IQ play like we saw all year from Gobert. Now...things might change if just every metric we had said "sorry, we can't make any stat based case. You just need to accept this." And that might happen, but it didn't happen this year. So I'm gonna go with the more Duncan like defender when I have doubts...I saw that win 5 titles.

[dhsilv2]

OP, could you show us how this works out for the last 10 years? 20? It is easy to say "see, this supports my arguement" for one year, but is it consistent?

Here are the top 25 seasons since 2010 based on D-Lebron. With no adjustments for minutes (so you could see a low minute guy in here). You'll note that guys seemed to be able to do in prior years as obviously more spacing and 3's as reduced the value of the best defenders to a degree. More so spreading the value around. But I think it shows the metric does a pretty good job all else equal.

Rudy Gobert 2020-21
Rudy Gobert 2016-17
Dwight Howard 2009-10
Dwight Howard 2010-11
Larry Sanders 2012-13
Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-20
Kevin Garnett 2010-11
Andrew Bogut 2016-17
Andrew Bogut 2014-15
Rudy Gobert 2017-18
Tim Duncan 2012-13
Andrew Bogut 2009-10
Myles Turner 2018-19
Rudy Gobert 2018-19
Draymond Green 2016-17
Marcus Camby 2009-10
Draymond Green 2015-16
Ben Wallace 2011-12
Serge Ibaka 2011-12
Dwight Howard 2011-12
Larry Sanders 2011-12
Rudy Gobert 2021-22
Greg Stiemsma 2011-12
Rudy Gobert 2015-16
Brook Lopez 2019-20

[nikster]

Friendly reminder that NBA players themselves agree Wemby should’ve won DPOY. They also voted Gobert as the most overrated player in the league (not hating, just stating the results of the polls).

Read on Twitter

That poll just tells me players have issues with Gobert that goes beyond impact on the court. Like would your really argue half the guys on the list are remotely as impactful as Gobert defensively?

[dhsilv2]

Friendly reminder that NBA players themselves agree Wemby should’ve won DPOY. They also voted Gobert as the most overrated player in the league (not hating, just stating the results of the polls).

That poll just tells me players have issues with Gobert that goes beyond impact on the court. Like would your really argue half the guys on the list are remotely as impactful as Gobert defensively?

It also tells me NBA players don't agree what so ever on who is and isn't a great defender. The top voted guy had under 16%.

[bledredwine]

Gobert helped transform the defensive culture of a team.

[Myth]

OP, could you show us how this works out for the last 10 years? 20? It is easy to say "see, this supports my arguement" for one year, but is it consistent?

Here are the top 25 seasons since 2010 based on D-Lebron. With no adjustments for minutes (so you could see a low minute guy in here). You'll note that guys seemed to be able to do in prior years as obviously more spacing and 3's as reduced the value of the best defenders to a degree. More so spreading the value around. But I think it shows the metric does a pretty good job all else equal.

Rudy Gobert 2020-21
Rudy Gobert 2016-17
Dwight Howard 2009-10
Dwight Howard 2010-11
Larry Sanders 2012-13
Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-20
Kevin Garnett 2010-11
Andrew Bogut 2016-17
Andrew Bogut 2014-15
Rudy Gobert 2017-18
Tim Duncan 2012-13
Andrew Bogut 2009-10
Myles Turner 2018-19
Rudy Gobert 2018-19
Draymond Green 2016-17
Marcus Camby 2009-10
Draymond Green 2015-16
Ben Wallace 2011-12
Serge Ibaka 2011-12
Dwight Howard 2011-12
Larry Sanders 2011-12
Rudy Gobert 2021-22
Greg Stiemsma 2011-12
Rudy Gobert 2015-16
Brook Lopez 2019-20

Pretty good job isn't the same as agreeing with using it as the means of selecting DPOY though.

Rudy Gobert 2020-21
Rudy Gobert 2016-17
Dwight Howard 2009-10
Dwight Howard 2010-11
Larry Sanders 2012-13
Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-20
Andrew Bogut 2014-15
Rudy Gobert 2017-18
Myles Turner 2018-19
Draymond Green 2015-16
Serge Ibaka 2011-12 (Ignored Ben Wallace due to his low minutes)
Rudy Gobert 2021-22

So from that list I gathered:
2010: Dwight
2011: Dwight
2012: Ibaka (Actual winner Tyson Chandler, Ibaka was a close 2nd)
2013: Larry Sanders (actual winner Marc Gasol - Sanders got 7th in real life, Duncan got 6th in real life but was 2nd on D-LeBron)
2015: Bogut (actual winner Kawhi, Bogut got 6th in real life with 0 first place votes)
2016: Draymond (actual winner Kawhi, Draymond got 2nd)
2017: Gobert (actual winner Draymond, Gobert got 2nd)
2018: Gobert
2019: Turner (actual winner Gobert, Turner got 5th with 0 first place votes)
2020: Giannis
2021: Gobert
2022: Gobert (actual winner Smart, Gobert got 3rd)

Would people really be ok with this as the DPOY list? Again, catch all formulas may show a decent trend, with D-LeBron here doing a pretty good correlation, but should 1 stat really determine who DPOY is? I don't think so.

[The Real Dalic]

So this is how awards are given these days? Calculating random formulas and seeing the best number?

As long as people continue to use box score statistics, player tracking data, and raw unadjusted play-by-play data as part of their arguments, I'll continue to consider one-number metrics. EPM, DRIP, LEBRON, and DARKO at least try to contextualize these numbers.

I know this is off topic and DRIP is a stat that is used, but there's something funny about you saying DRIP while you have that pfp.

[Chuck Everett]

Spurs better win more than 35 games next season or the media is going to turn on Victor. His stans are maniacal. It's very hard to win individual awards when your stats don't actually contribute to the win-loss column.

[dhsilv2]

OP, could you show us how this works out for the last 10 years? 20? It is easy to say "see, this supports my arguement" for one year, but is it consistent?

Here are the top 25 seasons since 2010 based on D-Lebron. With no adjustments for minutes (so you could see a low minute guy in here). You'll note that guys seemed to be able to do in prior years as obviously more spacing and 3's as reduced the value of the best defenders to a degree. More so spreading the value around. But I think it shows the metric does a pretty good job all else equal.

Rudy Gobert 2020-21
Rudy Gobert 2016-17
Dwight Howard 2009-10
Dwight Howard 2010-11
Larry Sanders 2012-13
Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-20
Kevin Garnett 2010-11
Andrew Bogut 2016-17
Andrew Bogut 2014-15
Rudy Gobert 2017-18
Tim Duncan 2012-13
Andrew Bogut 2009-10
Myles Turner 2018-19
Rudy Gobert 2018-19
Draymond Green 2016-17
Marcus Camby 2009-10
Draymond Green 2015-16
Ben Wallace 2011-12
Serge Ibaka 2011-12
Dwight Howard 2011-12
Larry Sanders 2011-12
Rudy Gobert 2021-22
Greg Stiemsma 2011-12
Rudy Gobert 2015-16
Brook Lopez 2019-20

Pretty good job isn't the same as agreeing with using it as the means of selecting DPOY though.

Rudy Gobert 2020-21
Rudy Gobert 2016-17
Dwight Howard 2009-10
Dwight Howard 2010-11
Larry Sanders 2012-13
Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-20
Andrew Bogut 2014-15
Rudy Gobert 2017-18
Myles Turner 2018-19
Draymond Green 2015-16
Serge Ibaka 2011-12 (Ignored Ben Wallace due to his low minutes)
Rudy Gobert 2021-22

So from that list I gathered:
2010: Dwight
2011: Dwight
2012: Ibaka (Actual winner Tyson Chandler, Ibaka was a close 2nd)
2013: Larry Sanders (actual winner Marc Gasol - Sanders got 7th in real life, Duncan got 6th in real life but was 2nd on D-LeBron)
2015: Bogut (actual winner Kawhi, Bogut got 6th in real life with 0 first place votes)
2016: Draymond (actual winner Kawhi, Draymond got 2nd)
2017: Gobert (actual winner Draymond, Gobert got 2nd)
2018: Gobert
2019: Turner (actual winner Gobert, Turner got 5th with 0 first place votes)
2020: Giannis
2021: Gobert
2022: Gobert (actual winner Smart, Gobert got 3rd)

Would people really be ok with this as the DPOY list? Again, catch all formulas may show a decent trend, with D-LeBron here doing a pretty good correlation, but should 1 stat really determine who DPOY is? I don't think so.

Sanders was 135th in minutes that year. So obviously he needs to be removed as well. Turner was 86th in 2019. So again I'd assume you'd demote him over minutes.

So yeah...if you minute weighted this I think I'd be just fine with it. The DPOY award has been one of the worst voted awards historically. It's been better in recent years likely due to more metrics like this being around. Obviously I'd not want this to be the one metric looked at, but just the fact we dropped Smart alone was a huge improvement already. I've always disagreed with Leonard as well so again, I see an improvement.