One_and_Done wrote:CD_41 wrote:FarBeyondDriven wrote:I think he's exactly where he was during his playing days. Top 5
100%.
What puts Duncan so high on the all-time-rankings is that he was constantly a top-5 player every year. As someone who essentially watched his entire career, I am pretty sure that he almost never was considered to be the best player in any year he played.
Top-5 most of the time, but never No. 1. Kobe, Shaq, LeBron stole No. 1 a lot of the times.
I get why in hindsight a lot of people want to put Duncan at No 1. if he played today. I mean, how can a Borderline Top-7 player of all time not be No 1. now? Well, he just never had these absurd peaks. Was always great, but never the best in any season.
This is completely ahistorical. Duncan was praised as the best player in the whole league as early as his 2nd year. He won 2 MVPs, and when you look at his prime from 98 to 07 he was consistently rated higher than Kobe over that period. Your confusing water cooler talking head chatter with what actually happened.
98- 5th (Kobe didn't even place)
99- 3rd (Kobe didn't even place)
00 - 5th (Kobe 12th)
01- 2nd (Kobe 9th)
02- 1st (Kobe 5th)
03- 1st (Kobe 3rd)
04- 2nd (Kobe 5th)
05- 4th (Kobe didn't even place)
06- 8th (Kobe 4th)
07- 4th (Kobe 3rd)
So you can see Duncan was generally kicking Kobe's ass in the minds of MVP voters over their primes, and Kobe's only 2 finishes over Duncan come right at the tail end of his prime when Duncan was chilling a little mord in the regular season and letting Manu & Parker carry more of the load. MVP voting isn't everything, but it conveys popular sentiment outside LA nicely here.
Those are just popularity awards, and Duncan being Mr. Clean Cut light skinned guy was destined to be a media darling. Kobe completely destroyed Duncan head-to-head in the playoffs.
Duncan is just overrated on RealGM, especially for a big. People have Duncan in the top 5 when he had a season when he should have been still in or close to his prime, and he averaged 13ppg/9reb/2ast, and people think he would be Jokic or Embiid in today's era? As a supposed "superstar," Duncan literally averaged 13ppg for an entire season on a championship-level roster, and people have him in top five all-time?
To be honest, I don't even think Duncan would have the versatility to play on the level of a guy like Karl-Anthony Towns. Duncan was very slow, methodical player on offense and a system guy under Popovich. Where is the idea coming from that he's going able to run and space the floor or attack every level of defense like Embiid with his shooting touch or be quick enough to front the basket like a lot of bigs today with their offensive versatility off the dribble? Or consistently hit a 3-point shot like Jokic or Towns? If you look at guy Towns and Jokic, they shoot like 85% from the line. Duncan had seasons where he was not much better than Shaq from the FT line. He once shot below 60% one season from the line. He was not a great shooter for much his career.
Based upon what would make even him a top three big in today's league, much less a top three player overall? People just have a huge recency bias because of the Spurs win over Lebron's Heat team in the Finals in 2014, and now they ridiculously overrate Duncan. Of course, Lebron wouild have to lose to another top five player and not a guy who got that carried by three other hall of famers and an all-time great coach.
Just looking at his skill sets that he showed while playing, if Duncan had to play like a modern big he would be roughly equivalent or slightly better than Brook Lopez. That's just being honest. The stats that we saw from Duncan when the Spurs went to more of spread 4-out of 1-in system are pretty much what he would have in today's NBA. He would be roughly somewhere between a 15-20ppg scorer and give you maybe 8 to 10 rebounds per game. His assist numbers would go up obviously. His impact defensively would we greatly watered down due to the fact he would no longer be a paint protector because he would pulled out to guard an opposing big on the perimeter. On offense he would be setting high ball screens and rolling off pics shooting 3's (assuming he would be an efficient shooter) or rolling to the basket, which was very similar to what the Spurs were doing when they won their last championship. That year Duncan averaged 15ppg/9reb/3ast.
This idea that Duncan's going to come into this era with these spread systems that are guard oriented and score 30ppg and be top 3 player is just not supported by any facts. There is only one true big in top 20 in scoring and that's Jokic. Giannis and Davis do not count because they both possess guard skill-sets with the ability to put the ball on the floor and dribble-drive to the basket from multiple levels (full court bringing the ball up, iso in half court, and from the post). Duncan was fairly good off the dribble and attacking the basket in a more limited way out of the post, but is Duncan going to be even a top 20 scorer in the league today? No, he's probably not. You can look at guy like Towns who has shot 40% from three for his career, much better free throw shooter than Duncan (Towns has even had a season where he almost shot 90% from the line), and a versatile and all-around skilled offensive player, and Towns is barely in the top 30 in scoring off 16 fga. Sixteen shots per game was roughly Duncan's career volume.
So, no, Duncan definitely not a top three player in this league. He's a good version Brook Lopez. Best case scenario that he would be as Towns on offense (unlikely), and he would still find some way to impact the game defensively like he did when he played. He's not going to be Embiid, Jokic, or even Giannis. All three of those guys are better offensively than Duncan by a pretty big margin.