Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery?

[ItsDanger]

You don't seem to understand what a lottery is.

You don't 'seem to understand the purpose of the draft in the first place. No surprise there with your attitude,

There's been a draft lottery for 40 years. It's for teams that didn't make the playoffs.

Your post was solely about teams that didn't make the playoffs but won 46 games. They are lottery teams. Therefore, they get a "chance". It isn't defeating the purpose, because they get a chance, because they are lottery teams.

The current structure doesn't defeat that. If you meant that the lottery itself defeats that, then you would have said it. But you didn't.

A longshot won. Because that longshot had a chance. Because they didn't make the playoffs. This isn't hard. For most people. With or without an attitude.

What is easy to observe is that bad teams are remaining bad for too long. These lottery odds are one key reason. If you love the status quo, then keep having a ridiculous probability spread.

[Roger Murdock]

I’ve proposed what I find to be a considerably better and more fair lotto system

First team eliminated in each conference gets 20 combinations

Second team eliminated gets 15

Third team gets 10

Fourth team gets 5

The top 8 picks will always be the first four teams eliminated from playoffs in each conference

Then you draw and randomly order 1-8.

It will be less punishing on average for teams like Detroit

[KembaWalker]

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

The NBA is a more star driven league than the others. Having a superstar in the NBA goes much further than having one in those other sports. The incentive to tank is much higher.

I don’t follow baseball, but can’t think of a single NFL team that has ever actively tanked. There has been some bad teams, but they never went into games actively trying to lose them.

The Colts absolutely tanked for Andrew Luck. There’s not a chance in hell Curtis Painter was put out there because anyone thought he was the Colts best chance to win

[Johnny Bball]

You don't 'seem to understand the purpose of the draft in the first place. No surprise there with your attitude,

There's been a draft lottery for 40 years. It's for teams that didn't make the playoffs.

Your post was solely about teams that didn't make the playoffs but won 46 games. They are lottery teams. Therefore, they get a "chance". It isn't defeating the purpose, because they get a chance, because they are lottery teams.

The current structure doesn't defeat that. If you meant that the lottery itself defeats that, then you would have said it. But you didn't.

A longshot won. Because that longshot had a chance. Because they didn't make the playoffs. This isn't hard. For most people. With or without an attitude.

What is easy to observe is that bad teams are remaining bad for too long. These lottery odds are one key reason. If you love the status quo, then keep having a ridiculous probability spread.

Yes, Because longshots win every year and that is why it is broken and teams are bad.

If you wanted to get rid of the lottery altogether you would have said so, and that's easier to observe.

[CIN-C-STAR]

You don't 'seem to understand the purpose of the draft in the first place. No surprise there with your attitude,

There's been a draft lottery for 40 years. It's for teams that didn't make the playoffs.

Your post was solely about teams that didn't make the playoffs but won 46 games. They are lottery teams. Therefore, they get a "chance". It isn't defeating the purpose, because they get a chance, because they are lottery teams.

The current structure doesn't defeat that. If you meant that the lottery itself defeats that, then you would have said it. But you didn't.

A longshot won. Because that longshot had a chance. Because they didn't make the playoffs. This isn't hard. For most people. With or without an attitude.

What is easy to observe is that bad teams are remaining bad for too long. These lottery odds are one key reason. If you love the status quo, then keep having a ridiculous probability spread.

One could also argue that the bad teams are remaining bad not because they lack enough lottery help, but precisely because they are bad teams. Meaning they are poorly managed .
That is likely the biggest factor. Though higher draft picks would obviously help them, do we want a system that rewards bad management to the point where even the incompetent succeed?
A question worth asking imo.

[Harry Garris]

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

Because teams rarely ever tank in the NFL or MLB and when they do it’s only for a couple of games at the end of the season.

The NBA is the only sport where teams are intentionally sabotaging their roster in the offseason before the year even starts to try to boost their draft odds.

[JujitsuFlip]

I think the bigger thing is don't draft a PG 3 seasons in a row. Idc who subscribes to BPA, that is just a poor way to run an organization.

[KembaWalker]

I’m guessing Detroit wouldn’t make too many people’s “garbage FO accusations” if they had Wemby and the Spurs had Cade

So dumb. MJ would have dodged a decade of slander if he had landed Davis and had Kemba/Davis in the weakest EC era of all time too. People don’t realize how much luck this stuff is

[jkvonny]

Well no, practically speaking it doesn't inherently hurt a smaller market team more than it does a big market team. My post was mostly off-topic. I'm fine with the current weighting and I think the biggest advantage to comes in drafts where the best player is a generational talent. Give more teams a shot at him.

It does hurt them more, because they are more dependent on the draft than a big market who can acquire players in FA/trades more easily because theyre more attractive destinations

But why is this year's lottery an example of that? It's mostly all small market teams. Atlanta and Houston are probably the 2 biggest markets in the entire lottery.

Top 10 draft picks?

3 of them are big markets (ATL, Washington, and Houston).
Chicago just missed the cut ( #11).

[jkvonny]

The Hawks are exactly the team you want to see win the lottery and get the top pick. They haven't been tanking, they're trying to win and found themselves stuck on the treadmill. It's better for the league for a team like them to luck out one year and retool than all-out tank to try and get a top pick

It’s better for a team that’s riding the fact that already hit gold in the lottery recently to pick highly again? Why

2018 isn't that recent. And to the extent they "struck gold" it got them 1 WCF appearance and now stuck in mediocrity

Btw I sympathize with the Hornets because they're continuously screwed out of the top pick, but landing LaMelo at 3 and Miller at 2 is still decent recent lotto luck

Hawks?

ECF

[jkvonny]

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

The NBA is a more star driven league than the others. Having a superstar in the NBA goes much further than having one in those other sports. The incentive to tank is much higher.

I don’t follow baseball, but can’t think of a single NFL team that has ever actively tanked. There has been some bad teams, but they never went into games actively trying to lose them.

Ya, same thing in baseball. Teams dont tank in that league lol.

[Saints14]

It’s better for a team that’s riding the fact that already hit gold in the lottery recently to pick highly again? Why

2018 isn't that recent. And to the extent they "struck gold" it got them 1 WCF appearance and now stuck in mediocrity

Btw I sympathize with the Hornets because they're continuously screwed out of the top pick, but landing LaMelo at 3 and Miller at 2 is still decent recent lotto luck

Hawks?

ECF

Doh - yup

[KembaWalker]

Look at guys like PJ Washington that is coming off the bench in Charlotte but can be apparently a 3rd option on a title contending team, all because that top top echelon talent is there. These teams at the bottom aren’t necessarily total garbage they just literally need that 1 guy that everyone else has. Just saying “durr bad management “ is missing the problem

[nikster]

It does hurt them more, because they are more dependent on the draft than a big market who can acquire players in FA/trades more easily because theyre more attractive destinations

But why is this year's lottery an example of that? It's mostly all small market teams. Atlanta and Houston are probably the 2 biggest markets in the entire lottery.

Top 10 draft picks?

3 of them are big markets (ATL, Washington, and Houston).
Chicago just missed the cut ( #11).

I guess that's a pretty broad definition of big markets. A team like Washington has neither been a big spender with deep pockets nor an attractive free agent destination

[jkvonny]

I’m guessing Detroit wouldn’t make too many people’s “garbage FO accusations” if they had Wemby and the Spurs had Cade

So dumb. MJ would have dodged a decade of slander if he had landed Davis and had Kemba/Davis in the weakest EC era of all time too. People don’t realize how much luck this stuff is

Pistons would still be horrible with Wemby,

...and we'd still be horrible with Cade as well

[KembaWalker]

I’m guessing Detroit wouldn’t make too many people’s “garbage FO accusations” if they had Wemby and the Spurs had Cade

So dumb. MJ would have dodged a decade of slander if he had landed Davis and had Kemba/Davis in the weakest EC era of all time too. People don’t realize how much luck this stuff is

Pistons would still be horrible with Wemby

Yeah but nobody would say they suck at management. Nobody is saying that about the Spurs whose roster is absolutely dreadful outside of Wemby. Or are we still crediting them for stuff from pre Covid

[jkvonny]

/small markets. You are correct.

But why is this year's lottery an example of that? It's mostly all small market teams. Atlanta and Houston are probably the 2 biggest markets in the entire lottery.

Top 10 draft picks?

3 of them are big markets (ATL, Washington, and Houston).
Chicago just missed the cut ( #11).

I guess that's a pretty broad definition of big markets. A team like Washington has neither been a big spender with deep pockets nor an attractive free agent destination

Yes. Washington DC/Balt/DMV area has always been a big market (NFL, MLB, NFL, NHL, etc). Media and TV market, population, metro area, fan base, etc
Same for ATL and Houston.

The rest of the teams in the Top 10 draft are mid/small markets. You are correct.

"A team like Washington has neither been a big spender with deep pockets nor an attractive free agent destination" Sounds familiar? LA Clips (Sterling years), Dallas (1990s), Chicago (post MJ years), Philly ('90s), GS Warriors (pre Curry/Klay years), NY Knicks (majority the past 2 decades) etc......other big markets, too.

[jkvonny]

I’m guessing Detroit wouldn’t make too many people’s “garbage FO accusations” if they had Wemby and the Spurs had Cade

So dumb. MJ would have dodged a decade of slander if he had landed Davis and had Kemba/Davis in the weakest EC era of all time too. People don’t realize how much luck this stuff is

Pistons would still be horrible with Wemby

,,,we'd still be horrible with Cade as well

Yeah but nobody would say they suck at management. Nobody is saying that about the Spurs whose roster is absolutely dreadful outside of Wemby. Or are we still crediting them for stuff from pre Covid

You missed my EDIT : ".....we'd still be horrible with Cade as well "

Ya, we've been rebuilding the past 5 seasons.

Detroit been rebuilding the past decade and a half.

[KembaWalker]

Pistons would still be horrible with Wemby

,,,we'd still be horrible with Cade as well

Yeah but nobody would say they suck at management. Nobody is saying that about the Spurs whose roster is absolutely dreadful outside of Wemby. Or are we still crediting them for stuff from pre Covid

You missed my EDIT : ".....we'd still be horrible with Cade as well "

Ya, we've been rebuilding the past 5 seasons.

Detroit been rebuilding the past decade and a half.

Have they though, they were a 500 playoff team in 2019 with Blake Griffin playing like an All NBA player, the kind of move everyone thinks should be celebrated, an undesirable market having to go after undesirable players to chase crappy playoff seeds because we can’t even build in the lottery anymore. Turns out chasing wins isn’t sustainable for teams like that because if getting guys like Blake Griffin is the best you can hope for in the trade market or free agency what are you supposed to even do?

[jkvonny]

Yeah but nobody would say they suck at management. Nobody is saying that about the Spurs whose roster is absolutely dreadful outside of Wemby. Or are we still crediting them for stuff from pre Covid

You missed my EDIT : ".....we'd still be horrible with Cade as well "

Ya, we've been rebuilding the past 5 seasons.

Detroit been rebuilding the past decade and a half.

Have they though, they were a 500 playoff team in 2019 with Blake Griffin playing like an All NBA player, the kind of move everyone thinks should be celebrated, an undesirable market having to go after undesirable players to chase crappy playoff seeds because we can’t even build in the lottery anymore. Turns out chasing wins isn’t sustainable for teams like that because if getting guys like Blake Griffin is the best you can hope for in the trade market or free agency what are you supposed to even do?

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the past decade and a half.