NBA's new TV deal, maybe not smooth sailing

[Rainwater]

So the exclusive negotiations window with ESPN and TNT is closing on Monday, with no new renewal.

The NBA's exclusive negotiating window with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery expires on Monday and sources tell CNBC that it will likely pass without a deal.

Both Disney and WBD are in active talks with the NBA to keep games on ESPN and TNT.

The NBA would like to bring in at least one new partner to serve as a flagship streamer.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275392/NBAs-Exclusive-Negotiating-Window-With-ESPN-TNT-Likely-To-End-Monday-Without-New-Deal

This detail is interesting:

The NBA is looking to double the $24 billion it generated from its previous media rights deal with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery by adding new partners and charging more for rights.

So a year or two ago, NBA said they wanted $80 billion for the next 10-year TV deal. That would be over 3 times the size of the current TV contract. They targeted 3X because the NFL also had received triple the value of their previous TV deal a couple of years ago.

Has the NBA accepted that they couldn't get a tripling of their TV deal, now setting their sights a lot lower?

lol looks like the NBA will get close to the 80 billion they were seeking with all these new deals. It always makes me laugh when people wish ill on the NBA, the league is doing well financially.

[Shock Defeat]

If Amazon gets it they need to bring inside the NBA over. They would be a perfect fit actually

[Rainwater]

It’s always interesting to me how these TV deals get done and the TV networks are obviously hoping to make the $$ off advertisements and commercials and such.

I can honestly say I’ve never ever in my life bought something because I saw it on a TV commercial. NBA loves to shove Hyundai/Kia/Genesis down our throat, I truly wonder if there is even one person in the world who bought a Kia or Hyundai at least in part because how NBA games always mention it for advertising.

Idk, maybe just me but I’m always surprised that these big companies pay so much $$ for advertising to these TV networks and sports leagues as if the average American is going to buy their product because of it.

I feel like you are making the assumption that everyone behaves like you which is not the case.

Another thing I always find interesting is how the layman always feels like they know more than a company. As if these multi billion dollar companies don’t conduct research or have the smartest people in the world helping them make decisions. I am not saying companies are perfect or business ideas don’t fail but companies are typically not spending billions in something if it’s not working or not showing any benefit.

[wco81]

So the exclusive negotiations window with ESPN and TNT is closing on Monday, with no new renewal.

The NBA's exclusive negotiating window with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery expires on Monday and sources tell CNBC that it will likely pass without a deal.

Both Disney and WBD are in active talks with the NBA to keep games on ESPN and TNT.

The NBA would like to bring in at least one new partner to serve as a flagship streamer.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275392/NBAs-Exclusive-Negotiating-Window-With-ESPN-TNT-Likely-To-End-Monday-Without-New-Deal

This detail is interesting:

The NBA is looking to double the $24 billion it generated from its previous media rights deal with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery by adding new partners and charging more for rights.

So a year or two ago, NBA said they wanted $80 billion for the next 10-year TV deal. That would be over 3 times the size of the current TV contract. They targeted 3X because the NFL also had received triple the value of their previous TV deal a couple of years ago.

Has the NBA accepted that they couldn't get a tripling of their TV deal, now setting their sights a lot lower?

lol looks like the NBA will get close to the 80 billion they were seeking with all these new deals. It always makes me laugh when people wish ill on the NBA, the league is doing well financially.

Uh, where did I "wish ill on the NBA?"

I pointed out the league set a very ambitious target.

More power to them if they hit or exceed that target. They were benchmarking vs. the deal the NFL got, so it was far from certain that they'd get what they wanted.

Instead, it might have been like a high bid in a negotiation, which is what the seller always does, set a much higher price than they may ultimately accept but they will see if they can get it.

If the NBA gets their price, the salary cap will eventually climb and $80 and $100 million AAV max contracts may not be out of reach in the next decade.

[The Servant]

Just let me stream TNT in 4k and ill give them 20 a month for the rest of my life.

[wco81]

WBD will be challenged to match the rumored NBC offer for NBA rights. But if it doesn't match, it could screw up plans for the sports-streaming service that ESPN, Fox and WBD plan to launch in the fall.

TNT's placement in cable packages may also be threatened.

he also has to deal with a hard-charging effort by NBCUniversal to acquire the package of NBA rights currently held by his TNT cable channel. Zaslav likely has Disney CEO Bob Iger and Fox chief Lachlan Murdoch scrambling for updates as well; the three media execs are deep in the process of creating a new joint venture sports streamer that carries livestreams of 14 networks like ESPN, TNT, and FS1, but the uncertainty over potentially losing a third of national NBA package to NBC could have Iger and Murdoch considering alternatives when it comes to the sports streaming joint venture.

Key Facts:
TNT and TBS would still have the MLB, NHL, NASCAR, All Elite Wrestling, U.S. Soccer, and the NCAA Men’s March Madness Tournament if WBD loses the NBA.
WBD has the right to match any offer from NBC for basketball rights, but its lack of a broadcast channel could put it at a disadvantage.

There are many theoretical options on the table for Disney and Fox if WBD loses the NBA, but none of them are terribly desirable.
If TNT does lose the NBA to NBC, it would still have a solid lineup of popular sports to bring to the JV streamer. The cabler would still carry NHL regular season and playoff games, NASCAR races, U.S. Soccer matches from the Men’s and Women’s National Teams, games from the annual NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (shared with CBS, TBS and truTV), and All Elite Wrestling. MLB plays a package of national games on TBS, as well. truTV is also expanding its sports programming with prime-time blocks that launched in March.

The Sports Business Journal reports that Zaslav is already considering a counter to NBC’s massive bid for NBA rights, but one source said it would be “hard to justify” laying out enough money to beat NBC's reported offer of $2.5 billion per season. But not securing the NBA for the next 10 years could hasten the already-precipitous decline of WBD’s cable revenues, and the fact that games now stream live on Max in the Bleacher Report Sports Add-On will not lead to an increase in revenues big enough to make up for cable channel losses.

Losing the NBA would also mean that WBD cannot contribute those games to the JV streamer that it is working on with Disney and Fox. That leaves the other two companies with several options, none of which are especially appealing. It’s likely too late to try and pursue NBC as a partner in the JV and leave WBD behind, as the still-unnamed platform has already named a jointly-agreed-upon CEO. But would WBD have to pursue other sports rights to try to make up for the lack of NBA games? Or could its failure to secure the package be the death knell of the JV altogether?

https://thestreamable.com/news/what-happens-to-the-disney-fox-wbd-sports-streamer-if-nbc-steals-nba-rights-from-tnt

[Mephariel]

Like I said, the NBA will get close to or hit their goals. But yeah...I am supposed to believe BLM hurt the NBA, and we should silence NBA players. If anything some people here need to STFU.

Sent from my SM-S908U using RealGM mobile app

[Lalouie]

i wish i had a wall st background because the product is horrible

i can only guess that at it's very basic form,,,it has accessibility because it can be played alone

[hippesthippo]

If they don't get the streaming rights as well as cable, it's pointless. I've watched pretty much the entire playoffs on Max.

[Mamba81p]

The reports are that amazon will pay 1.8b, and that would bring the total per year to 6.9b and they will go with a 11 year deal instead of 9, which would bring the total to 76b. Amazing job by adam silver. If he wants to, I am sure the owners will want him as commissioner for the next tv deal.

For us, the fans, the good part is we will not have a another lockout anytime soon. The bad part is that we will pay more to watch the games, but I will take it

[KennerLeaguer]

So the exclusive negotiations window with ESPN and TNT is closing on Monday, with no new renewal.

The NBA's exclusive negotiating window with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery expires on Monday and sources tell CNBC that it will likely pass without a deal.

Both Disney and WBD are in active talks with the NBA to keep games on ESPN and TNT.

The NBA would like to bring in at least one new partner to serve as a flagship streamer.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275392/NBAs-Exclusive-Negotiating-Window-With-ESPN-TNT-Likely-To-End-Monday-Without-New-Deal

This detail is interesting:

The NBA is looking to double the $24 billion it generated from its previous media rights deal with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery by adding new partners and charging more for rights.

So a year or two ago, NBA said they wanted $80 billion for the next 10-year TV deal. That would be over 3 times the size of the current TV contract. They targeted 3X because the NFL also had received triple the value of their previous TV deal a couple of years ago.

Has the NBA accepted that they couldn't get a tripling of their TV deal, now setting their sights a lot lower?

lol looks like the NBA will get close to the 80 billion they were seeking with all these new deals. It always makes me laugh when people wish ill on the NBA, the league is doing well financially.

There has been a negative push against the NBA in the USA since the mid 90s. Yes, even with Jordan still around. White dudes on sports talk radio loved deriding the league. Max Kellerman spoke of this once. The poison of public opinion of the league kept getting worse. Meanwhile the NFL gets all the love.

[KennerLeaguer]

Just let me stream TNT in 4k and ill give them 20 a month for the rest of my life.

Amen.

[wco81]

They seem pretty much to be at around $7 billion, not as much as the $8 billion that the NBA talked about but pretty close.

The NBA's new media rights deals could surpass $7 billion per season, which would represent an increase of nearly 170 percent from its current $2.6 billion per deals with ESPN and TNT. According to reported figures, the combined rights fees from ESPN, Amazon and NBC (or TNT) are at $6.9 billion per season.

Amazon will pay approximately $1.8 billion per season, according to Andrew Marchand of The Athletic. The deal will include the Conference Finals every other year as they will alternate with whoever wins the third rights between NBC and TNT. It also will include the NBA Cup and In-Season Tournament.

TNT can match NBC's offer of $2.5 billion per season and talks are ongoing.

ESPN's deal with the NBA, which includes the Finals and Conference Finals on an annual basis, will cost $2.6 billion per year.

A report in 2021 indicated that the NBA was seeking anywhere between $7 billion and $8 billion per year on its next deal. After a 2023 report cooled those expectations with a doubling of the current deal a more probable target, the NBA appears to be close to reaching its goal.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275638/NBAs-Next-Media-Rights-Deals-Closing-In-On-$7-Billion-Per-Season

Amazing that NBA got Amazon to bite on the In-Season Tournament and the NBA Cup -- aren't they the same thing?

So the only outstanding issue appears to be whether WBD will match the NBA offer to keep the NBA games on TNT.


For perspective, the NFL signed a deal a couple of years ago for 10 years at $10 billion a year, which includes Amazon getting the Thursday Night Football package.

NFL should get more money, because they generate much higher ratings than NBA games. But if the NBA gets $7-8 billion, that's a lot more bang for the buck, considering the ratings gap between NFL and NBA games.

Bill Simmons had a theory, that NBA has so much more social media following that in some ways, it's more valuable to the networks than the ratings of the NBA games. There are a lot of people who follow the NBA, especially social media, but they don't actually sit down and watch a lot of the games.

He said there are too many games and if they cut it to 72 games or even shorter, each game would get higher ratings than currently. He pointed out that the highest ratings for NBA was back in 2011 in the strike-shortened 66-game season. NBA had to quickly set up a shortened season and didn't get to promote it much. But individual broadcasts of NBA games averaged higher ratings.

The other theory is that the networks are losing their grip, fewer viewers every year as people cut the cord. So live sports are one of the few things which keep people paying for cable TV. But also, the networks are more desperate to keep rights to the games so they may pay more and on a relatively basis, the networks are paying more for the NBA than the NFL, mainly because the NBA deal came up for renewal later.

There's also a quiet competition brewing between the NFL and the NBA. Thursday Night Football forced TNT to cut back on NBA games on Thursday Nights during the NFL season. Not only that, NFL is now coming for the Christmas Day games.

The next NFL contract could be even crazier, which will ultimately lead to higher cable TV and streaming subscription fees, more than likely.

[Rafael122]

NFL is appointment viewing b/c it's once a week, hence the concentration of viewership. There's also nothing else around at that will compete against it. NASCAR isn't going to have one of their races in the same time block as football. They took over Christmas and NBA is like "alright, fine, you can have it" because what are they going to do? NBA doesn't even schedule TNT Thursday games until Thursday Night football is over.

With the NBA and baseball, it's like, you need to be in the mood to watch it. I don't really pay attention to baseball until after the all-star break because it's in that dead sports zone where you're waiting for college basketball and training camp to start. With the NBA, the season doesn't start until Christmas day.

So I'll be very interested to see how this shakes out. Amazon's getting the NBA cup, a slate of regular season games, and some playoff games. ESPN keeps the conference finals, NBA finals, Wednesday night games but drop the Friday night games. So they're paying more for less. The last package is probably the current Turner package, and every other year they get a conference finals. I don't know if that's worth $2.5 billion per year though.

Bill Simmons also had an interesting take that if Turner loses the NBA, they may go after the UFC.

[the sea duck]

It’s always interesting to me how these TV deals get done and the TV networks are obviously hoping to make the $$ off advertisements and commercials and such.

I can honestly say I’ve never ever in my life bought something because I saw it on a TV commercial. NBA loves to shove Hyundai/Kia/Genesis down our throat, I truly wonder if there is even one person in the world who bought a Kia or Hyundai at least in part because how NBA games always mention it for advertising.

Idk, maybe just me but I’m always surprised that these big companies pay so much $$ for advertising to these TV networks and sports leagues as if the average American is going to buy their product because of it.

I feel like you are making the assumption that everyone behaves like you which is not the case.

Another thing I always find interesting is how the layman always feels like they know more than a company. As if these multi billion dollar companies don’t conduct research or have the smartest people in the world helping them make decisions. I am not saying companies are perfect or business ideas don’t fail but companies are typically not spending billions in something if it’s not working or not showing any benefit.

as a kid i thought marketing didn't work on me. i barely paid attention to commercials and never purchased anything because of a commercial. but one hot summer day after playing basketball at the park we stopped at a convenience store for drinks. i was never a sprite drinker. but the cool dimples on the greenish bottle and the imagery of the refreshing experience i had seen grant hill display seemingly a hundred times on tv made the sprite look sooooo good in that moment. i bought it an enjoyed it (probably wouldn't have enjoyed it so much if i wasn't so thirsty). but as i was reaching for the bottle, i realized the marketing had worked on me, at least for that day. i still tend to not purchase products that i see advertised. but i don't discount that advertising has an effect on me on some level. i don't doubt it pays off for companies when done correctly.

[the sea duck]

They seem pretty much to be at around $7 billion, not as much as the $8 billion that the NBA talked about but pretty close.

The NBA's new media rights deals could surpass $7 billion per season, which would represent an increase of nearly 170 percent from its current $2.6 billion per deals with ESPN and TNT. According to reported figures, the combined rights fees from ESPN, Amazon and NBC (or TNT) are at $6.9 billion per season.

Amazon will pay approximately $1.8 billion per season, according to Andrew Marchand of The Athletic. The deal will include the Conference Finals every other year as they will alternate with whoever wins the third rights between NBC and TNT. It also will include the NBA Cup and In-Season Tournament.

TNT can match NBC's offer of $2.5 billion per season and talks are ongoing.

ESPN's deal with the NBA, which includes the Finals and Conference Finals on an annual basis, will cost $2.6 billion per year.

A report in 2021 indicated that the NBA was seeking anywhere between $7 billion and $8 billion per year on its next deal. After a 2023 report cooled those expectations with a doubling of the current deal a more probable target, the NBA appears to be close to reaching its goal.

There's also a quiet competition brewing between the NFL and the NBA. Thursday Night Football forced TNT to cut back on NBA games on Thursday Nights during the NFL season. Not only that, NFL is now coming for the Christmas Day games.

i think this is relevant to your other point about the nba's social media status being important. the nfl is a social sport. there's a culture behind it that extends to very casual fans. it's easier to follow than a league that sometimes has teams play 4 times in a week. people are busy, but if they feel like they can keep up with a league, they'll be fans of it. the nba is harder to keep up with on a regular basis from october to june. but it has it's own social scene and that social scene may become more and more important as there are fewer water coolers and more slack channels with embedded video. the nba is a better "clip" league whereas big plays in the nfl are usually more contextual. a big play is made big by the situation. the nba can show off great plays and garner attention regardless of when it happens in a game.

[JustBuzzin]

All I want to know is will the TNT guys still around or not?

[Rainwater]

NFL is appointment viewing b/c it's once a week, hence the concentration of viewership. There's also nothing else around at that will compete against it. NASCAR isn't going to have one of their races in the same time block as football. They took over Christmas and NBA is like "alright, fine, you can have it" because what are they going to do? NBA doesn't even schedule TNT Thursday games until Thursday Night football is over.

Yeah, it’s always been unfair to compare viewership of the NBA to the NFL domestically. The NFL enjoys too many advantages. The limited games promises higher ratings. You miss one NFL game you miss 1/16 of the season; therefore, every game is a must watch. While with the NBA, you miss one game you have 81 more games left. There might be one tomorrow.

Additionally, playing on the weekend, particularly on a Sunday, is a huge plus. Most are off on weekends and Sundays are seen as the lazy day, or the of rest for many. So people sit back and watch tv on that day.

And football is culturally event for many, especially those in the south. There are cities in Texas, Mississippi, and Alabama that completely shut down when high schools or colleges play. The only place I could see that happening for basketball is Indiana or maybe New York.

[Rainwater]

It’s always interesting to me how these TV deals get done and the TV networks are obviously hoping to make the $$ off advertisements and commercials and such.

I can honestly say I’ve never ever in my life bought something because I saw it on a TV commercial. NBA loves to shove Hyundai/Kia/Genesis down our throat, I truly wonder if there is even one person in the world who bought a Kia or Hyundai at least in part because how NBA games always mention it for advertising.

Idk, maybe just me but I’m always surprised that these big companies pay so much $$ for advertising to these TV networks and sports leagues as if the average American is going to buy their product because of it.

I feel like you are making the assumption that everyone behaves like you which is not the case.

Another thing I always find interesting is how the layman always feels like they know more than a company. As if these multi billion dollar companies don’t conduct research or have the smartest people in the world helping them make decisions. I am not saying companies are perfect or business ideas don’t fail but companies are typically not spending billions in something if it’s not working or not showing any benefit.

as a kid i thought marketing didn't work on me. i barely paid attention to commercials and never purchased anything because of a commercial. but one hot summer day after playing basketball at the park we stopped at a convenience store for drinks. i was never a sprite drinker. but the cool dimples on the greenish bottle and the imagery of the refreshing experience i had seen grant hill display seemingly a hundred times on tv made the sprite look sooooo good in that moment. i bought it an enjoyed it (probably wouldn't have enjoyed it so much if i wasn't so thirsty). but as i was reaching for the bottle, i realized the marketing had worked on me, at least for that day. i still tend to not purchase products that i see advertised. but i don't discount that advertising has an effect on me on some level. i don't doubt it pays off for companies when done correctly.

Yeah, I just don’t think people understand companies wouldn’t pour billions into something if there wasn’t a good chance it was working. From Saturday morning cartoons to how Cereal is placed on a shelf is marketing at work.

[sp6r=underrated]

If I was the NBA I'd start worrying when ESPN gets anything else with consistent ratings other than sports.

There's a reason every single streaming service wants local blackouts... it legit won't be able to sell cable without it.

Hell Professional Wrestling is extremely boring and it still often is among the top rating getter in key demographics because there is nothing produced on television worth paying for anymore.

It is understood that tv ratings are catering but I don't think people appreciate how much they've collapsed this century.

Yellowstone was the highest rated tv show last week with 8.83 million tuning in. In Nov 2010, a show called the mentalist hit almost 14 million. In a country of 370 million people that is nothing. Simply put there is no such thing as a hit show anymore.

Sports is one of the few things that people reliably watch live. All sports, even sports declining in popularity like baseball, are extremely valuable to networks for the reasons you outlined. It is one of the few things that can guarantee eyeballs. The NBA will get the figure it wants. And if it leaves TNT/ESPN it will because it choose to leave.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/tv-ratings-sunday-nov-20-2022-1235267690/
https://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/tv-show-ratings-november-11-2010-18869/

One of the few things I've ever gotten right on here. That said, I am confused how the NFL leagues get such large TV deals given the ratings they deliver. As an NBA fan I love it but I could see the system catering because clearly the NBA gets revenue in part from non-sports fans.