NBA's new TV deal, maybe not smooth sailing

[nomansland]

BetYourCar24/7/365.com loves it. Get in the game!

[wco81]

So the exclusive negotiations window with ESPN and TNT is closing on Monday, with no new renewal.

The NBA's exclusive negotiating window with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery expires on Monday and sources tell CNBC that it will likely pass without a deal.

Both Disney and WBD are in active talks with the NBA to keep games on ESPN and TNT.

The NBA would like to bring in at least one new partner to serve as a flagship streamer.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275392/NBAs-Exclusive-Negotiating-Window-With-ESPN-TNT-Likely-To-End-Monday-Without-New-Deal

This detail is interesting:

The NBA is looking to double the $24 billion it generated from its previous media rights deal with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery by adding new partners and charging more for rights.

So a year or two ago, NBA said they wanted $80 billion for the next 10-year TV deal. That would be over 3 times the size of the current TV contract. They targeted 3X because the NFL also had received triple the value of their previous TV deal a couple of years ago.

Has the NBA accepted that they couldn't get a tripling of their TV deal, now setting their sights a lot lower?

[Tor_Raps]

With all the previous load managing, hope these companies tell the nba to kick rocks. If they don't care about the regular season then why should the broadcasting company's pay an enormous amount? Just doesn't make sense.

[Hoop Hunter]

I hate streaming, it never seems to works as well as my DirecTV and my DVR.

[wco81]

NBA represents dozens of hours per month for 6 months, overlapping with the NFL but also providing a lot of content after the NFL season ends.

The TV networks are making money because they're not going to rely on NHL and MLB only.

But ESPN and WBD are struggling since they signed the previous NBA contract, about 10 years ago.

We will see if new players like Amazon or Apple bid aggressively. I think the league is going to cut a deal to still be on cable TV, not go streaming only.

[pace31]

NBA represents dozens of hours per month for 6 months, overlapping with the NFL but also providing a lot of content after the NFL season ends.

The TV networks are making money because they're not going to rely on NHL and MLB only.

But ESPN and WBD are struggling since they signed the previous NBA contract, about 10 years ago.

We will see if new players like Amazon or Apple bid aggressively. I think the league is going to cut a deal to still be on cable TV, not go streaming only.

I'd never expect it with something as mainstream as the NBA, but how Apple does their MLS league pass I think has been fantastic. An NBA version of that would be incredible.

[bledredwine]

Plz let the deal fall through and nba end up Amazon primetv or YouTube.

This was the only desire and thought that I have in this debacle as well.
OP's post is excellent though.

[Chuck Everett]

NBA represents dozens of hours per month for 6 months, overlapping with the NFL but also providing a lot of content after the NFL season ends.

The TV networks are making money because they're not going to rely on NHL and MLB only.

But ESPN and WBD are struggling since they signed the previous NBA contract, about 10 years ago.

We will see if new players like Amazon or Apple bid aggressively. I think the league is going to cut a deal to still be on cable TV, not go streaming only.

The NBA's issue is that money is still expensive at the same time they would like to renew. Interest rates are still high, advertisers are still withholding a significant amount and a lot of these companies use debt to finance things in the short term.

Paramount/CBS re-upped with the NFL, but the scuttlebutt is that the company is possibly in danger of missing those payments (moving forward), while also trying to figure out how to sell itself to multiple interested parties (who seem to want to strip it for parts). The NFL hasn't said anything about this on the record, but privately, I am sure they are concerned about this.

Now, the 2023-24 season was a much better season for the NBA than the season prior. Last season was really bad as far as the product was concerned. The players still seem to not realize that they make their money from the regular season. The playoffs are important of course, but the national TV deals are valued by all of the regular season inventory. The League has tried to fix this by tying awards to games played, but even that has sparked complaining.

Lastly, Disney/ESPN and WBD are in a ton of debt. Disney due to the pandemic and WBD due to AT&T saddling the company with it before spinning it off. These companies may not be able to offer a raise even if they wanted to.

I think what we need to keep an eye on is if the NBA and its television partners seek to kick the can down the road by extending the current deal for an additional three (3) years in the hopes that the economic landscape improves. Comcast/NBC may bid, but they are definitely not going to overbid. Fox is not going to bid at all, choosing to invest in college sports instead (alongside the NFL).

That leaves Amazon, which has already rescued Bally, albeit temporarily. With the RSN's collapsing all around the country due to cord cutting, will the individual franchises (who don't have deals like MSG network and Spectrum), make individual deals with Amazon to broadcast locally? Or will this be the return to local network TV like Ishbia has done with the Suns this season?

I appreciate you bumping this thread. Always like hearing your thoughts on this.

[wco81]

The other consideration is that some teams have made certain payroll decisions expecting the cap to keep going up, with much more TV money increasing league revenues and driving salary cap increases.

Several teams may be on financially unsustainable paths unless the TV money really boosts revenues.

Live sports may be the only type of content preventing a much faster drop in cord-cutting. So the networks are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

[Apz]

Will twolves owner regret not selling?

[jbk1234]

As the end consumer, I'd really like to see the numbers stay right where they are currently. When you start look at what these folks are going to have to charge in order for them to make a profit at 2 to 3 times the current rate, it ain't pretty.

[GameChannel]

If I was Google, I'd come in with a Youtube exclusive rights offer with NBA league pass getting abolished.

- Youtube gets ALL the games.
- No more league pass. No more ESPN, No more TNT.
- The local broadcasts continue to be carried by local stations on traditional TV, online streaming through Youtube only (free version with Ads)
- Marquee, National regular season games on Youtube premium subscription Ad Free.
- Playoffs on Youtube Premium subscription Ad Free.
- Buyout NBA on TNT's talent contracts to have them on Youtube for National, Marquee games on Tuesday and Thursdays plus payoffs.

[wco81]

As the end consumer, I'd really like to see the numbers stay right where they are currently. When you start look at what these folks are going to have to charge in order for them to make a profit at 2 to 3 times the current rate, it ain't pretty.

They could stop all NFL, NBA and other sports broadcasts tomorrow.

And the day after tomorrow, the cable companies and the streamers will still raise your subscription prices.

Certainly a lot of subscription revenues go to the leagues. But the leagues are also used as scapegoats when the cable companies raise your subscription fees every year.

[jbk1234]

As the end consumer, I'd really like to see the numbers stay right where they are currently. When you start look at what these folks are going to have to charge in order for them to make a profit at 2 to 3 times the current rate, it ain't pretty.

They could stop all NFL, NBA and other sports broadcasts tomorrow.

And the day after tomorrow, the cable companies and the streamers will still raise your subscription prices.

Certainly a lot of subscription revenues go to the leagues. But the leagues are also used as scapegoats when the cable companies raise your subscription fees every year.

I cut the cord so cable companies can do whatever they like before the entire carriage fee model implodes. Max is $10/month with commercials and they stream TNT. Disney is currently weighing whether to stream ESPN, hold onto its dwindling carriage fees in the cable model, try both, or just spin ESPN off and sell it.

But all of that aside, the idea that WB (TNT) and Disney (ESPN) would pay 3 times as much for the rights and not immediately try to pass that cost onto the consumer is pure fantasy. The dilemma they're facing is the possibility (likelihood) that not enough consumers would agree to pay those increased rates. Nationally televised games could quickly become a go out and watch at the pub event.

If the league is convinced the money they're looking for is out there, they already have a streaming service up and ready to go in NBA TV. They should cut out the middle man, end the rent seeking, and just collect the streaming fees themselves. I suspect that they're watching what happened to Ballys and other RSNs and deciding they don't want all that risk. In 2008 you had owners borrowing from the league to meet payroll. No one wants to go back to that.

[Apz]

As the end consumer, I'd really like to see the numbers stay right where they are currently. When you start look at what these folks are going to have to charge in order for them to make a profit at 2 to 3 times the current rate, it ain't pretty.

They could stop all NFL, NBA and other sports broadcasts tomorrow.

And the day after tomorrow, the cable companies and the streamers will still raise your subscription prices.

Certainly a lot of subscription revenues go to the leagues. But the leagues are also used as scapegoats when the cable companies raise your subscription fees every year.

I cut the cord so cable companies can do whatever they like before the entire carriage fee model implodes. Max is $10/month with commercials and they stream TNT. Disney is currently weighing whether to stream ESPN, hold onto its dwindling carriage fees in the cable model, try both, or just spin ESPN off and sell it.

But all of that aside, the idea that WB (TNT) and Disney (ESPN) would pay 3 times as much for the rights and not immediately try to pass that cost onto the consumer is pure fantasy. The dilemma they're facing is the possibility (likelihood) that not enough consumers would agree to pay those increased rates. Nationally televised games could quickly become a go out and watch at the pub event.

If the league is convinced the money they're looking for is out there, they already have a streaming service up and ready to go in NBA TV. They should cut out the middle man, end the rent seeking, and just collect the streaming fees themselves. I suspect that they're watching what happened to Ballys and other RSNs and deciding they don't want all that risk. In 2008 you had owners borrowing from the league to meet payroll. No one wants to go back to that.

Agree. I were gonna stop paying for league pass cause it was like 200-220 euro/season, but just that year they lowered it to 99. **** adds up

[dafan590]

please bring back NBA ON NBC!!!

[Slade3]

The NBA will get the figure it wants. And if it leaves TNT/ESPN it will because it choose to leave.

The NBA needs ESPN/TNT more than they need the NBA. ESPN and TNT are just a small part of the empire that are Disney and WBD.. They'll both easily survive without the NBA. But the NBA will have a hard time doing the same without them. If the NBA gets too smug, both of them will just hang up the phone. The NBA can't contend with the two media giants, so they gotta negotiate carefully.

[MrBigShot]

They are intentionally looking for an unrealistic amount during the exclusive negotiation period to bring streaming into the mix and still overall get a higher total tv deal comp than the one before.

[Mephariel]

The NBA will get the figure it wants. And if it leaves TNT/ESPN it will because it choose to leave.

The NBA needs ESPN/TNT more than they need the NBA. ESPN and TNT are just a small part of the empire that are Disney and WBD.. They'll both easily survive without the NBA. But the NBA will have a hard time doing the same without them. If the NBA gets too smug, both of them will just hang up the phone. The NBA can't contend with the two media giants, so they gotta negotiate carefully.

I have no doubt the NBA will get the deal done and get what they want or most of what they want.

[NBA4Lyfe]

If I was the NBA I'd start worrying when ESPN gets anything else with consistent ratings other than sports.

There's a reason every single streaming service wants local blackouts... it legit won't be able to sell cable without it.

Hell Professional Wrestling is extremely boring and it still often is among the top rating getter in key demographics because there is nothing produced on television worth paying for anymore.

It is understood that tv ratings are catering but I don't think people appreciate how much they've collapsed this century.

Yellowstone was the highest rated tv show last week with 8.83 million tuning in. In Nov 2010, a show called the mentalist hit almost 14 million. In a country of 370 million people that is nothing. Simply put there is no such thing as a hit show anymore.

Sports is one of the few things that people reliably watch live. All sports, even sports declining in popularity like baseball, are extremely valuable to networks for the reasons you outlined. It is one of the few things that can guarantee eyeballs. The NBA will get the figure it wants. And if it leaves TNT/ESPN it will because it choose to leave.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/tv-ratings-sunday-nov-20-2022-1235267690/
https://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/tv-show-ratings-november-11-2010-18869/

i think politics and cancel culture have ruined the need to watch modern tv shows. nobody wants to feel like they are being indoctrinated when watching a new sitcom. sports is no different from that, the nba still has not recovered the lost consumers from the blm bubble nightmare. in this aspect the nfl was smart to blackball kaepernick and put that whole saga in the rear view mirror and their tv ratings recovered