Doctor MJ wrote:Prez wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:
I think folks have taken that 1st round upset in a problematic direction. Folks seem to think that the Bucks lost because Holiday failed at stopping Butler.
People need to remember that the game the Bucks won in that series, they won without Giannis.
And for good measure, the On-Off for the two guys in the series:
Giannis -6.0
Holiday +24.9
If a Bucks' star is going to be blamed for the upset, it should clearly be Giannis.
All that said, I obviously wouldn't be looking to trade Giannis, and I'd certainly have strongly considered Dame-for-Jrue. Just saying, if you're one of the many who bought into the very wrong trope of Holiday being to blame for what happened, look closer.
Jrue had a 49% TS for the series, took over 8 3PA/game hitting at below 29%, and was not only the primary defender on the man that murdered us for 38 ppg on 67% TS, but was actively waving off guys who could’ve done better in that matchup (Wes for example). Not to mention the litany of late game poor decision making.
I’m sorry but no, I’m not just going to look at the on/off numbers in a tiny 5 game sample size where that number can be wildly skewed by a single game (like game 2, which is an obvious outlier, a game that Giannis missed and thus doesn’t get the benefit of in his on/off numbers), and make broad conclusions on the series based on just that.
Jrue was abysmal that series by the standards of someone who made the ASG last season, and was a massive part of that series imploding for the Bucks. Nobody is saying Jrue was the ONLY problem that series (there were a bunch) but his performance undeniably was one. He was horrifically inefficient offensively and got utterly ruined defensively by a matchup that he was calling for and waving others off of.
Also, Giannis literally missed half the series with a back injury and was clearly still playing through pain when he returned for games 4-5, that’s probably why many Bucks fans aren’t ripping him too hard for that series.
Re: not just going to look at on/off. Didn't say you should. Only that if you think "We'd have won that series if only Jrue hadn't been terrible", you should consider that the on/off doesn't just say there's an absence of evidence there, but actually says that Jrue had more impact than the other Bucks.
Realistically I don't think anyone wants to have to rely on Holiday as a volume scorer, and Dame is a big upgrade there, but the idea that we should zoom in and blame Holiday for the upset when we know full well that Giannis was hurt, missed time, and wasn't there for the only game the team won is pretty odd.
There’s plenty of evidence if we don’t take the on/off numbers of a tiny 5 game sample size as gospel.
Again, it is such a tiny sample size that a single game like a blowout in game 2 can completely skew the numbers for the whole series to make it look favorable on the whole, not to mention the number says nothing about the strength of lineups these guys are playing in.
How about the other 4 games where Jrue was at 45% TS, on 36/25/69 shooting splits? And not just horrific efficiency, but numerous terrible shots in possessions that could’ve generated better looks?
Or what about games 4 & 5, absolute must win games, where Jrue gave us 33% FG/24% 3PT shooting splits while his defensive matchup averaged 49 ppg on obscene efficiency across those 2 games?
Those were two critical games lost by a combined 7 points in which Jrue was abominably inefficient and let his direct matchup go off like peak Jordan. Jrue being just marginally less awful in those games absolutely could’ve swung things in that series. Not that it definitely would have, but it’s certainly possible. And again, nobody is blaming the entire series on Jrue, just pointing out that his performance was a big factor.
