Anthony Edwards Trajectory

[Cavsfansince84]

He's got a very good chance at being the best guard in the league for a significant stretch of time. And that time's probably starting soon.

After that, you judge by rings.

If we're counting Luka as a guard I think his chances of being the best guard are very low for the next 6-7 years. I seriously doubt he catches Shai within the next 5-6 years either. I think he'll be a clear tier below them for the coming 2-3 years and then half a tier below after that until they start to age out.

[Cavsfansince84]

Not saying Ant is better than Kobe whatsoever but you also need to consider that Ant's numbers would increase substantially if he played with prime Shaq.

Ant is putting up these numbers as the bonafide alpha, number 1 scorer, and leader of this team.

That's going a bit far. He's 4ppg ahead of Towns this year and that's with Kat having much better efficiency. His team also won game 2 with him going 3-12 for 15 pts.

[tsherkin]

And if we ported Ant into Kobe's era he'd probably be 5-8% better than league average. Flat TS% adjustments don't work because they reward ppl who played in worse leagues.

Maybe. Maybe not.

He'd shoot worse in the paint, and isn't elite at drawing fouls even now. He actually also isn't elite at finishing in the paint in today's environment either. He also isn't a huge threat past the foul line and under the arc.

His raw efficiency is only about +3% or so above league average from a lot of Kobe's time, at that. Remember, he's a below-average efficiency guy in today's environment already, and some stuff would backslide in the earlier era. Slower pace, more set defense, average shooting worse in the paint. Hell, he's below average in 2FG% in today's environment overall, not just in the RA.

So there's a lot of that to consider, his playoff performance over a short sample notwithstanding.

[Primedeion]

Well, there's a reason he only won 1 MVP

Oh wow. He won MVP, has more top five finishes than all but one player in NBA history, and is only top ten all-time in MVP shares.

What a disappointment.

He still only won 1 MVP. And yet, people compare him to a guy who won 6

Oh no. He only won one MVP while finishing top ten all-time in MVP shares.

Maybe you should worry more about how your boy can't even manage league average efficiency while playing with one of the GOAT shooting/spacing big man and in the weakest defensive environment in modern history lol.

[wablty]

He's got a very good chance at being the best guard in the league for a significant stretch of time. And that time's probably starting soon.

After that, you judge by rings.

If we're counting Luka as a guard I think his chances of being the best guard are very low for the next 6-7 years. I seriously doubt he catches Shai within the next 5-6 years either. I think he'll be a clear tier below them for the coming 2-3 years and then half a tier below after that until they start to age out.

I'm not sure I agree that the 22 year old can't have similar explosive growth in his game that the 25 year olds already had, but okay. Like they're ahead now. It's a trajectory question. I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that, with his his physical power and speed, the next step for him is learning to get to the line a ton. Which is the big divider on efficiency between those 3 IMO. So maybe let's wait 2 years before we say there's no chance of this, or low chance of that. Seems a little premature, no?

The fact that a 22 year old is in the conversation is kind of wild in and of itself to me. Can people at least agree that he's really good?

Because everything is measured in rings after you reach All NBA levels.

[HMFFL]

He isn’t offensive hub like Doncic/Lebron/Jokic. More like Wade/Durant/Tatum/Kawhi attacking mode. So his potential is around 4-8th man in the league.

A 22 year old Lebron James was still finding his stroke. He was always on attack mode for the easy buckets at his size and strength compared to his opponent.

Next season will give us a much better indication of who Anthony Edwards will be. I believe this postseason is exactly what he needed and he's showcasing his talent.

I believe Edwards will be far superior to Wade, who seems to be mentioned often in this thread, but time will tell.

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That's quite a statement. There aren't many players in NBA history who I'd say were "far superior" to Wade.

If you say so, because I can look over the all time list, and there's going to be plenty of players that are far superior. I respect Wade but you're trying to place him on a level he's never reached.

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[zero rings]

He's got a very good chance at being the best guard in the league for a significant stretch of time. And that time's probably starting soon.

After that, you judge by rings.

Non starter discussion. Luka and SGA are like 25. I see nothing that indicates he will surpass either of them ever, let alone soon. Like what leap are you seeing in him that lets him leap these two MVP candidates?

Ant and SGA are in the same tier. SGA is my guy 100 grand... I give him the edge for defense and the ability to play 1,2,3 positions all at the same level.

SGA just had one of the best seasons from any guard this century. If Jokic didn't exist, he would be the MVP of the league and deservingly so.

He and Ant are not on the same tier.

[One_and_Done]

Oh wow. He won MVP, has more top five finishes than all but one player in NBA history, and is only top ten all-time in MVP shares.

What a disappointment.

He still only won 1 MVP. And yet, people compare him to a guy who won 6

Oh no. He only won one MVP while finishing top ten all-time in MVP shares.

Maybe you should worry more about how your boy can't even manage league average efficiency while playing with one of the GOAT shooting/spacing big man and in the weakest defensive environment in modern history lol.

That shows longevity not how he was rated at his peak. By your logic K.Malone must be better because he has more MVP shares over his career.

[zero rings]

He's shaping up to be a better version of Kobe. Still not a top 5 player, but he might get there.

Do you have to derail every single thread into a Kobe debate? I'm not even a Kobe guy but this is ridiculous lol

Just give it a rest man.

[Statlanta]

People are putting too much on this young kid when the entire team is lead by defense backed by the DPOY.

[runtmc]

I know people like to get carried away in the hype of recent performances, but this is getting out of hand. Superior Wade/Kobe, mentioned with Jordan? Potential MVP? That's... insane talk. Ant is a good player, but he's almost certainly not the best player on his team (Gobert), and I think reasonable arguments could be made for Conley/Towns being better this season, though Id personally lean towards Ant edging the other two out, but not by much. He's much, much closer to something like a prime Bradley Beal than the Wade/Kobe tier, let alone Jordan tier. And there's nothing wrong with that -- prime Beal was a good player, but he would never be confused with Wade/Kobe.

1. 25.6/5/5.5, TS+ 104, DRtg 114, PER 20.8, WS/48 .120, BPM 2.9, VORP 3.7, Beal Age 25, 7th season
2. 25.9/5.4/5.1, TS+ 99, DRtg 110, PER 19.7, WS/48 .130, BPM 3.3, VORP 3.7, Edwards Age 22, 4th season

You can compare other seasons, but these are the seasons that most closely align, and they are extremely similar. Yes, Beal is a bit older here, but rarely do players make a jump from borderline all-star territory to MVP territory in their 5th+ year. Before this season, Edwards looked good by counting stats, but less than stellar by his advanced stats. His seasonal WS/48 up to now has been .017, .084, .064, .130. Even if we look at other advanced metrics (sadly, a lot of them have been taken offline), he's 22nd in the league in EPM, 52nd in LEBRON, etc. That's somewhere between All-star reserve and above average starter level.

And just as a reminder:
1. 28.5/5.9/5, TS+ 107, DRtg 105, PER 24.5, WS/48 .196, BPM 4.8, VORP 4.7, Kobe Age 22, 5th season
2. 24.1/5.2/6.8, TS+ 106, DRtg 103, PER 23.1, WS/48 .177, BPM 4.6, VORP 4.9, Wade Age 23, 2nd season

The biggest difference is that Kobe/Wade were phenomenal defenders in their prime, Kobe was a career 105 DRtg with a peak of 98, Wade was a career 104 with a 99 peak -- both of them were all-nba/DPOY caliber defenders. Ant is *at best* a slightly above average defender right now (his career DRtg is 113), and that's with being on the best defensive team in the NBA. Also, Ant's TS+ needs to be underlined -- he's got a career TS+ worse than Allen Iverson -- that's not good. When you're a volume shooter, having a below average efficiency is a death sentence. But aside from all that, you can see from the advanced stats that there's a pretty huge gap between the Kobe/Wades of the world and Ant (I wont even bother posting Jordan's numbers, but they make Kobe/Wade look bad).

I like Ant -- I do -- but let's just pump the brakes a bit on "superior Wade/Kobe" etc. Hes just not at that level, and thats not just a disrespect to Kobe/Wade but a disservice to Ant.

[One_and_Done]

I know people like to get carried away in the hype of recent performances, but this is getting out of hand. Superior Wade/Kobe, mentioned with Jordan? Potential MVP? That's... insane talk. Ant is a good player, but he's almost certainly not the best player on his team (Gobert), and I think reasonable arguments could be made for Conley/Towns being better this season, though Id personally lean towards Ant edging the other two out, but not by much. He's much, much closer to something like a prime Bradley Beal than the Wade/Kobe tier, let alone Jordan tier. And there's nothing wrong with that -- prime Beal was a good player, but he would never be confused with Wade/Kobe.

1. 25.6/5/5.5, TS+ 104, DRtg 114, PER 20.8, WS/48 .120, BPM 2.9, VORP 3.7, Beal Age 25, 7th season
2. 25.9/5.4/5.1, TS+ 99, DRtg 110, PER 19.7, WS/48 .130, BPM 3.3, VORP 3.7, Edwards Age 22, 4th season

You can compare other seasons, but these are the seasons that most closely align, and they are extremely similar. Yes, Beal is a bit older here, but rarely do players make a jump from borderline all-star territory to MVP territory in their 5th+ year. Before this season, Edwards looked good by counting stats, but less than stellar by his advanced stats. His seasonal WS/48 up to now has been .017, .084, .064, .130. Even if we look at other advanced metrics (sadly, a lot of them have been taken offline), he's 22nd in the league in EPM, 52nd in LEBRON, etc. That's somewhere between All-star reserve and above average starter level.

And just as a reminder:
1. 28.5/5.9/5, TS+ 107, DRtg 105, PER 24.5, WS/48 .196, BPM 4.8, VORP 4.7, Kobe Age 22, 5th season
2. 24.1/5.2/6.8, TS+ 106, DRtg 103, PER 23.1, WS/48 .177, BPM 4.6, VORP 4.9, Wade Age 23, 2nd season

The biggest difference is that Kobe/Wade were phenomenal defenders in their prime, Kobe was a career 105 DRtg with a peak of 98, Wade was a career 104 with a 99 peak -- both of them were all-nba/DPOY caliber defenders. Ant is *at best* a slightly above average defender right now (his career DRtg is 113), and that's with being on the best defensive team in the NBA. Also, Ant's TS+ needs to be underlined -- he's got a career TS+ worse than Allen Iverson -- that's not good. When you're a volume shooter, having a below average efficiency is a death sentence. But aside from all that, you can see from the advanced stats that there's a pretty huge gap between the Kobe/Wades of the world and Ant (I wont even bother posting Jordan's numbers, but they make Kobe/Wade look bad).

I like Ant -- I do -- but let's just pump the brakes a bit on "superior Wade/Kobe" etc. Hes just not at that level, and thats not just a disrespect to Kobe/Wade but a disservice to Ant.

You are relying too much on advanced stats. Ant is the best player on the Wolves, and comparisons to Kobe/Wade are both fair and appropriate. He definitely has a big advantage on them with his 3pt shooting.

I'd say right now he's still behind Wade, but is making a case for being superior to Kobe. If I was building a team in today's league I'm not sure I could justify taking Kobe over him. The last 2 playoffs Ant is posting 39-7-7 per 100 on 607 TS% with a 120 Ortg. That compares very favourably to Kobe.

[Wallace_Wallace]

^He’s right you know.

A superior Wade or Kobe is pretty funny. Once upon a time, there’s a MVP named James Harden who took one of the greatest team of all time to 7 games with a post prime Chris Paul, I don’t know if I would take him over prime Harden

[runtmc]

You are relying too much on advanced stats. Ant is the best player on the Wolves, and comparisons to Kobe/Wade are both fair and appropriate. He definitely has a big advantage on them with his 3pt shooting.

I'd say right now he's still behind Wade, but is making a case for being superior to Kobe. If I was building a team in today's league I'm not sure I could justify taking Kobe over him. The last 2 playoffs Ant is posting 39-7-7 per 100 on 607 TS% with a 120 Ortg. That compares very favourably to Kobe.

I mean.. that's objectively just not defensible. Again, Ant is *at best* a slightly above average defender (likely below average, and is getting a boost from being on a team of defensive monsters). Kobe was an all-nba/DPOY caliber player, so was Wade. Half the game is defense, that's a monumental gap.

Even offensively, Kobe had a TS+ of 107 at the same age to Ant's 99. Kobe's counting stats are even better. Theres just objectively no way to defend saying Ant is better, let alone near, Kobe/Wade, even at the same age/experience level. And that's assuming Ant continues to improve at the level Kobe/Wade did, which isnt a given either.

And Ant has a big advantage in 3p shooting? That's not true in the case of Kobe -- he's a career 35% from 3 to Kobe's 33% -- that's not a big difference. Its true in the case of Wade, but Wade never took that many 3s. Also, the league is far different -- Ant is below average in 3p shooting compared to the league, as league avg is 36% these days -- his 3p+ is a 98. Not that it even matters -- what matters is TS/TS+. I mean, Shaq also couldn't shoot 3s -- you dont have to shoot 3s to be a valuable offensive player.

[One_and_Done]

You are relying too much on advanced stats. Ant is the best player on the Wolves, and comparisons to Kobe/Wade are both fair and appropriate. He definitely has a big advantage on them with his 3pt shooting.

I'd say right now he's still behind Wade, but is making a case for being superior to Kobe. If I was building a team in today's league I'm not sure I could justify taking Kobe over him. The last 2 playoffs Ant is posting 39-7-7 per 100 on 607 TS% with a 120 Ortg. That compares very favourably to Kobe.

I mean.. that's objectively just not defensible. Again, Ant is *at best* a slightly above average defender (likely below average, and is getting a boost from being on a team of defensive monsters). Kobe was an all-nba/DPOY caliber player, so was Wade. Half the game is defense, that's a monumental gap.

Even offensively, Kobe had a TS+ of 107 at the same age to Ant's 99. Kobe's counting stats are even better. Theres just objectively no way to defend saying Ant is better, let alone near, Kobe/Wade, even at the same age/experience level. And that's assuming Ant continues to improve at the level Kobe/Wade did, which isnt a given either.

And Ant has a big advantage in 3p shooting? That's not true in the case of Kobe -- he's a career 35% from 3 to Kobe's 33% -- that's not a big difference. Its true in the case of Wade, but Wade never took that many 3s. Also, the league is far different -- Ant is below average in 3p shooting compared to the league, as league avg is 36% these days -- his 3p+ is a 98. Not that it even matters -- what matters is TS/TS+. I mean, Shaq also couldn't shoot 3s -- you dont have to shoot 3s to be a valuable offensive player.

1) Kobe was never a DPOY candidate and his all-D teams should be taken well salted. Just by citing these you're losing credibility. Everyone serious knows they were a joke.
2) Ant's volume and degree of difficulty is vastly superior to Kobe, so a flat 3pt% comparison is meaningless (over their whole careers btw? Really?)
3) As I explained a flat TS adjustment is not appropriate.
4) Sure, Shaq Can be good on O without a 3, but a perimeter guard can't.

[runtmc]

You are relying too much on advanced stats. Ant is the best player on the Wolves, and comparisons to Kobe/Wade are both fair and appropriate. He definitely has a big advantage on them with his 3pt shooting.

I'd say right now he's still behind Wade, but is making a case for being superior to Kobe. If I was building a team in today's league I'm not sure I could justify taking Kobe over him. The last 2 playoffs Ant is posting 39-7-7 per 100 on 607 TS% with a 120 Ortg. That compares very favourably to Kobe.

I mean.. that's objectively just not defensible. Again, Ant is *at best* a slightly above average defender (likely below average, and is getting a boost from being on a team of defensive monsters). Kobe was an all-nba/DPOY caliber player, so was Wade. Half the game is defense, that's a monumental gap.

Even offensively, Kobe had a TS+ of 107 at the same age to Ant's 99. Kobe's counting stats are even better. Theres just objectively no way to defend saying Ant is better, let alone near, Kobe/Wade, even at the same age/experience level. And that's assuming Ant continues to improve at the level Kobe/Wade did, which isnt a given either.

And Ant has a big advantage in 3p shooting? That's not true in the case of Kobe -- he's a career 35% from 3 to Kobe's 33% -- that's not a big difference. Its true in the case of Wade, but Wade never took that many 3s. Also, the league is far different -- Ant is below average in 3p shooting compared to the league, as league avg is 36% these days -- his 3p+ is a 98. Not that it even matters -- what matters is TS/TS+. I mean, Shaq also couldn't shoot 3s -- you dont have to shoot 3s to be a valuable offensive player.

1) Kobe was never a DPOY candidate and his all-D teams should be taken well salted. Just by citing these you're losing credibility. Everyone serious knows they were a joke.
2) Ant's volume and degree of difficulty is vastly superior to Kobe, so a flat 3pt% comparison is meaningless (over their whole careers btw? Really?)
3) As I explained a flat TS adjustment is not appropriate.
4) Sure, Shaq Can be good on O without a 3, but a perimeter guard can't.

1) Kobe was never a candidate? Candidate means in the running. He never won the award, but he finished 3rd, 5th twice, 7th, 8th, etc., along with 12 All-defensive teams. You could make a *very* good argument he could have/should have won a DPOY. His peak DRtg was 98, an absurd mark for a wing -- Jordan's DPOY win was with a 101, for comparison. So no, everyone serious doesnt know they were a joke.

Regardless of that, the point stands that the gap between Kobe/Wade and Ant on defense is ENORMOUS. Trying to hand wave away Kobe's defense won't change that.

2) Ant's volume and degree of difficulty is vastly superior to Kobe? Good lord. Why would you act like taking difficult shots is a good thing first of all, and second, Kobe was literally the king of taking crazy difficult 3s. But again, who cares? 3 point shooting literally doesnt matter if you have a good TS/TS+. Ant doesnt.

3) A flat TS adjustment? TS+ isnt a flat adjustment, its based relative to the league/era you're in by definition. Ant is not an efficient scorer. Thats just a fact.

4) Uh, Wade is literally the perfect counter example. He never took many 3s and was a perimeter guard that was insanely valuable offensively. Youre literally missing the entire point of the 3p revolution in the first place -- theyre a better shot because they increase your TS, on average, if you shoot them well. That said, you can be the best 3p shooter in the NBA, if you dont have a good TS it doesnt matter. TS is all that matters. Its how Harden was so valuable offensively despite being a relatively poor shooter -- he got to the line at a crazy rate. There's more than one path to a high TS, which was the entire point. Being a good 3p shooter is not *by itself* valuable. Having a high TS is valuable.

[SpreeS]

A 22 year old Lebron James was still finding his stroke. He was always on attack mode for the easy buckets at his size and strength compared to his opponent.

Next season will give us a much better indication of who Anthony Edwards will be. I believe this postseason is exactly what he needed and he's showcasing his talent.

I believe Edwards will be far superior to Wade, who seems to be mentioned often in this thread, but time will tell.

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That's quite a statement. There aren't many players in NBA history who I'd say were "far superior" to Wade.

If you say so, because I can look over the all time list, and there's going to be plenty of players that are far superior. I respect Wade but you're trying to place him on a level he's never reached.

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Lets look only at all time guards list. Only 6 guards are clearly over Wade, other could be over or not, but they are in the same tier (Paul/Harden/Nash/Stockton).

Now list of better players than Wade. Jordan is Jordan. Magic/Curry/Kobe/West/Oscar - I dont see he is f…ing close to these, maybe Kobe is the closest, but Edwards needs to have longevity and play in big market. His stats more like Tatum at 22y old than Kobe’s.

On other hand if Edwards would reach Kobe level, we could see where would finish Kobe on AGT list playing w/o O’Neal and in small market.

[One_and_Done]

I mean.. that's objectively just not defensible. Again, Ant is *at best* a slightly above average defender (likely below average, and is getting a boost from being on a team of defensive monsters). Kobe was an all-nba/DPOY caliber player, so was Wade. Half the game is defense, that's a monumental gap.

Even offensively, Kobe had a TS+ of 107 at the same age to Ant's 99. Kobe's counting stats are even better. Theres just objectively no way to defend saying Ant is better, let alone near, Kobe/Wade, even at the same age/experience level. And that's assuming Ant continues to improve at the level Kobe/Wade did, which isnt a given either.

And Ant has a big advantage in 3p shooting? That's not true in the case of Kobe -- he's a career 35% from 3 to Kobe's 33% -- that's not a big difference. Its true in the case of Wade, but Wade never took that many 3s. Also, the league is far different -- Ant is below average in 3p shooting compared to the league, as league avg is 36% these days -- his 3p+ is a 98. Not that it even matters -- what matters is TS/TS+. I mean, Shaq also couldn't shoot 3s -- you dont have to shoot 3s to be a valuable offensive player.

1) Kobe was never a DPOY candidate and his all-D teams should be taken well salted. Just by citing these you're losing credibility. Everyone serious knows they were a joke.
2) Ant's volume and degree of difficulty is vastly superior to Kobe, so a flat 3pt% comparison is meaningless (over their whole careers btw? Really?)
3) As I explained a flat TS adjustment is not appropriate.
4) Sure, Shaq Can be good on O without a 3, but a perimeter guard can't.

1) Kobe was never a candidate? Candidate means in the running. He never won the award, but he finished 3rd, 5th twice, 7th, 8th, etc., along with 12 All-defensive teams. You could make a *very* good argument he could have/should have won a DPOY. His peak DRtg was 98, an absurd mark for a wing -- Jordan's DPOY win was with a 101, for comparison. So no, everyone serious doesnt know they were a joke.

Regardless of that, the point stands that the gap between Kobe/Wade and Ant on defense is ENORMOUS. Trying to hand wave away Kobe's defense won't change that.

2) Ant's volume and degree of difficulty is vastly superior to Kobe? Good lord. Why would you act like taking difficult shots is a good thing first of all, and second, Kobe was literally the king of taking crazy difficult 3s. But again, who cares? 3 point shooting literally doesnt matter if you have a good TS/TS+. Ant doesnt.

3) A flat TS adjustment? TS+ isnt a flat adjustment, its based relative to the league/era you're in by definition. Ant is not an efficient scorer. Thats just a fact.

4) Uh, Wade is literally the perfect counter example. He never took many 3s and was a perimeter guard that was insanely valuable offensively. Youre literally missing the entire point of the 3p revolution in the first place -- theyre a better shot because they increase your TS, on average, if you shoot them well. That said, you can be the best 3p shooter in the NBA, if you dont have a good TS it doesnt matter. TS is all that matters. Its how Harden was so valuable offensively despite being a relatively poor shooter -- he got to the line at a crazy rate. There's more than one path to a high TS, which was the entire point. Being a good 3p shooter is not *by itself* valuable. Having a high TS is valuable.

I stopped reading after "he should have won DPOY".

[Shaka_Zulu]

First of all, team defense (which Ant is huge part of) and Gobert is most important piece of impacting wins in Wolves. But still Ant IS the best player in Wolves, undeniable. His overall package of scoring, defence, playmaking, huge gravity etc has been clutch.


Love Kat (most efficient scorer) and Conley (best decision maker) but they have no case of best player in team ahead of him. Only one who has a case is Gobert but Ant edges him.



For everything else, please for the love of God, he is 22 so let's just stick to this era and current players. Any talk of all time greats and comparisons is insanely premature. And that's a sure fire way to create irrational haters. So let's just put breaks on that. He is super special, ridiculous growth and rises to the occasion in a way that is shaping up to be historical type of talented SG (breaking playoff record for Wolves already and matching some greats in overall for first playoff individual runs).

But besides that, there is really no case to be made. As the kid himself says in interviews, let's just focus on him getting his first playoff series win instead.



I enjoy reading your posts and yll knowledgeable, but please take it easy with these ATG type discussion.

[TimberKat]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.