Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

[bushybrah_]

This is exactly why I take more stock into the eye test. I’m not say advanced metrics aren’t important, but this forum is the only one that uses it in every discussion.

[UcanUwill]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

I think he is still liked, because he is young and expectation to win has not set in. This happens to every star, Wemby is also loved. If the hype remains and they add few years of not winning, then maybe few more, fans will turn hostile. This happens almost every time.

As for his metrics, I havent seen his stats, but I recall his efficiency so far not being that great. That tanks all those advanced stats. The ability and ceiling is there quite clearly, he just hasnt found his concistency the way SGA has, Ant is not behind curve tho.

[GSP]

Those are Rs numbers

Ant is a playoff riser like a Jimmy Butler who doesnt have that impressive impact or advanced metrics I'm the regular season. But in playoffs we see his true value.

Denver couldnt guard him at all last year and he was closer in level to Jokic that series than Murray or anyone else was to him

[MoneyTalks41890]

SGA and Luka are older and a tier or two ahead of Ant.

The better comp for Ant is Jalen Williams and most of the reflex in the comparison is draft position.

[life_saver]

Ant doesn't put in full effort in all RS games..this is obvious for anyone if you watched all Wolves games. So that kinda deflates some of his RS stats. Especially in some games against bad teams, he is just content with others on the team scoring and he will be just there on court..in those kinda games, he mostly turns it on if the game is still close in middle of 3rd Qtr. He also had stretch of games this year when he was returning from injury where he clearly wasn't fully fit but played through it and had bad numbers..he probably played to meet the 65 games criteria for All-NBA. Ant also tries lot of fancy stuff in RS which does affect his efficiency numbers. He also has been consistently improving in so many areas of his game in such a quick span...his playmaking & decision making especially have improved so much in just couple of years

This has been Ant's 3rd season in playoffs and his numbers always have improved in playoffs, even his efficiency has improved in playoffs vs RS which is a rare thing..he is fully locked in during playoffs, doesn't try all the fancy stuff that he tries during RS..so his impact is clearly lot more higher in playoffs than RS. Btw, some of the advanced stats like RAPM has Ant in top15 in impact this RS too

This was after G1. His numbers are likely even better after G4

Read on Twitter

?t=mm3C6JFo7ewoulznnr0nyQ&s=19

[Impuniti]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

When you win, you get to do whatever you want.

[Baseline81]

SGA and Luka are older and a tier or two ahead of Ant.

The better comp for Ant is Jalen Williams and most of the reflex in the comparison is draft position.

[LaLover11]

[Statlanta]

Like Derrick Rose, Allen Iverson and Russel Westbrook he's the little offensive guy on a defensive team. Maybe his stats will be better since he's 22 but he is just an okay offensive piece

[Dadouv47]

He's only 22, he's american, he has some aura, is scareless and he's fun to watch. Those are the reasons why I think he's a bit overrated right now but he can reach superstar level if he keeps improving.

[hauntedcomputer]

I personally find him incredibly loathsome but trying to wrangle morality into sports is a lunatic's pursuit. Production (and ultimately money) is all that matters in the Great Sports Ledger in the Sky. I've lived through the Kobe Redemption Tour and see Isaiah Thomas's smug little smirk every time I tune in to NBA TV, so I know how it goes. He didn't get fined for the same "Suck It" crotch chop that Embiid was fined for, so I know how Silver is leaning.

I like to watch him play. I think he gets a little ballhoggish once in a while but I don't doubt his will and commitment to winning. But there are a couple dozen players I'd both rather have and rather watch.

[zimpy27]

SGA and Luka are older and a tier or two ahead of Ant.

The better comp for Ant is Jalen Williams and most of the reflex in the comparison is draft position.

Good call, Ant and Jalen are similar in impact and age right now. Will be interesting to see who ends up better.

[og15]

The metrics are a guide, they don't capture everything, and we have to supplement. I actually do agree that his hype is likely beyond his actual impact right now, but that's how hype can work, especially with a super athletic player who is also capable of being an explosive scorer.

He's still young, and he's on a team with the supporting pieces and coach support to minimize the things he's not as good at as well as maximize his strengths.

He has defensive impact in man to man defense which box score metrics never catch.

He's not at the level of Luka and SGA based on the data we have so far, though SGA hasn't played as a first option in the playoffs until now. He has elevated his game in the playoffs, but it's 3 first round series' and 15 games so far, so not enough for us to say too much yet.

[FarBeyondDriven]

advanced stats don't always tell the real story. Gobert CAN run PnR but he's not elite at it. And when he's not running it, he clogs the lane preventing a lot of Edwards' dribble drive game which let's be honest is really his strength. KAT and Gobert on the floor together introduces another big on defense as well, further clogging the lane. If he had driving lanes defenders would go into drop coverage more to stop him and then he'd have even more open looks from outside. This would improve his advanced stats.

Edwards is absolutely in the same class as SGA and Luka. I don't know why this suggestion triggers so many. The differences in counting stats is the result of usage and FGA. Only 7 other players averaged 25-5-5 like Edwards and he is much younger than the others and plays defense better than many of them. He's a bonafide star.

Edwards isn’t in the same stratosphere as Luka. Pretty much any stat (basic or advanced) shows that.

stop. You're embarrassing yourself. Luka is the most overrated player in the NBA. He plays zero defense. I know his fans love to gloss over this fact but it's a major reason why he won't be sniffing a championship any time soon.

Compare the first round of these playoffs. You know, games that matter? Edwards just swept the Suns while Luka is tied because he's been inconsistent and his defense is atrocious

Luka - 30-10-9 shooting 25% from three

Edwards - 31-8-6 shooting 41% from three

iSn'T iN tHe sAmE sTRatoSpHerE

like I said, the only difference is usage and FGA that give Luka counting stats edge and mirage of better advanced stats. When factoring in defense Edwards is just as good or at least comparable.

[Anticon]

Obviously you need to look at his splits, playoff stats, 4th quarter performance, clutch stats, etc.

Derozan, who was not at the same tier as a player, used to baffle people with an overall negative plus/minus but had very strong fourth quarter stats.

You are also comparing him to MVP candidates, though I take the point about his league ranking. Plus the winning for the Wolves is really a team thing given how solid their roster is with multiple numbers 1 picks, a DPOY, great role players/vets, etc.

[tsherkin]

This isn't hard to answer.

His regular season play is a lot worse than how he's played during the playoffs. And when you look at his playoff metrics, they reflect the large difference in quality of play. When you're a high-volume scorer who is a negative TSAdd kind of guy, you tend not to do that well in overall numbers. When you're a +5.5% rTS guy in the playoffs, things look a little different. He's also shooting over 90% at the line so far in the postseason, and was under 84% in his first season as an 80%+ FT shooter in the RS.

He isn't the playmaker or rebounder we see from Luka, but he's a considerably better defender and he's been a monster in 3 straight playoff series. We'll see what happens in the second round, but like, he's been a beast. He's night and day on offense during the postseason to date in his career. In the RS, he's a bleh volume scorer under league-average efficiency, more exciting than high-impact. And then the playoffs start and he does this.

[slick_watts]

it's only 15 games in the playoffs. we were asking the same questions about donovan mitchell in 2021 when he had two straight superhuman playoff runs, but he has since normalized. during the regular season, ant hasn't been nearly as good.

[life_saver]

it's only 15 games in the playoffs. we were asking the same questions about donovan mitchell in 2021 when he had two straight superhuman playoff runs, but he has since normalized. during the regular season, ant hasn't been nearly as good.

Mitchell had a pretty good series in his first playoff series vs OKC but he his next 2 playoffs series were pretty bad shooting wise..shot 34% from field and 25% from 3 in both of those series combined. Ant's efficiency in all the 3 playoffs series so far is very consistent

[firedavidkahn]

I clowned Kobe so much for not having the advanced stats vs. his true impact on winning.

I now get it after having watched Ant for 4 years.

[slick_watts]

it's only 15 games in the playoffs. we were asking the same questions about donovan mitchell in 2021 when he had two straight superhuman playoff runs, but he has since normalized. during the regular season, ant hasn't been nearly as good.

Mitchell had a pretty good series in his first playoff series vs OKC but he his next 2 playoffs series were pretty bad shooting wise..shot 34% from field and 25% from 3 in both of those series combined. Ant's efficiency in all the 3 playoffs series so far is very consistent

17 games 2020-2021 mitchell was at 64ts and there were the same convos.