Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

[life_saver]

it's only 15 games in the playoffs. we were asking the same questions about donovan mitchell in 2021 when he had two straight superhuman playoff runs, but he has since normalized. during the regular season, ant hasn't been nearly as good.

Mitchell had a pretty good series in his first playoff series vs OKC but he his next 2 playoffs series were pretty bad shooting wise..shot 34% from field and 25% from 3 in both of those series combined. Ant's efficiency in all the 3 playoffs series so far is very consistent

17 games 2020-2021 mitchell was at 64ts and there were the same convos.

I was referring to first 3 playoffs series of both the players

[Baseline81]

Good call, Ant and Jalen are similar in impact and age right now. Will be interesting to see who ends up better.

Certainly are similar impact players... oh wait.

Read on Twitter

[jehosafats]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

He's right that the metrics might do a poor job accounting for defensive impact. Those metrics can neglect the impact of a Doug Christie, who was clearly one of the best his wing defenders of his generation.

[slick_watts]

Mitchell had a pretty good series in his first playoff series vs OKC but he his next 2 playoffs series were pretty bad shooting wise..shot 34% from field and 25% from 3 in both of those series combined. Ant's efficiency in all the 3 playoffs series so far is very consistent

17 games 2020-2021 mitchell was at 64ts and there were the same convos.

I was referring to first 3 playoffs series of both the players

ok. i wasn't.

[zimpy27]

This isn't hard to answer.

His regular season play is a lot worse than how he's played during the playoffs. And when you look at his playoff metrics, they reflect the large difference in quality of play. When you're a high-volume scorer who is a negative TSAdd kind of guy, you tend not to do that well in overall numbers. When you're a +5.5% rTS guy in the playoffs, things look a little different. He's also shooting over 90% at the line so far in the postseason, and was under 84% in his first season as an 80%+ FT shooter in the RS.

He isn't the playmaker or rebounder we see from Luka, but he's a considerably better defender and he's been a monster in 3 straight playoff series. We'll see what happens in the second round, but like, he's been a beast. He's night and day on offense during the postseason to date in his career. In the RS, he's a bleh volume scorer under league-average efficiency, more exciting than high-impact. And then the playoffs start and he does this.

It's a small sample in the playoffs but it's more meaningful games. I don't know if this suggests that Ant doesn't play up to his ability in the RS because he's not that interested or whether it's a lucky run.

Though there are far more examples of the lucky run than the guy not playing to potential in RS. A recent lucky run guy is Rui.

Rui not in the same class as Edwards but a demonstration of small sample bias. Until this offseason Rui had played the same amount of playoff minutes as Edwards has now and Rui had a 68+% TS in those minutes. Now Rui is a similar TS% guy to Edwards in RS (maybe slightly better) but this massive playoff jump didn't make sense and now Rui is stinking it up in the playoffs (coming back to earth).


So I do think it's more likely that Ant is on a lucky run with shooting efficiency but he could also be bucking the trend and actually be a guy that just needs playoffs to sharpen his interest. I guess we wait and see.

[Godymas]

OP is looking at Ant's regular season metrics and not his playoff metrics

i mean you have to be trolling, right, it's not like Ant only has 1 playoff series under his belt

[MoneyTalks41890]

Good call, Ant and Jalen are similar in impact and age right now. Will be interesting to see who ends up better.

Certainly are similar impact players... oh wait.

Read on Twitter

I mean, Jalen Williams scores 20 ppg on 62% TS. Any score 26 on 57.5% TS. For reference, Josh Giddey is 54.7%. Ant is much closer to Josh's efficiency than Jalen's. Put Jalen in the same spot he can definitely score more, does great without SGA on, and I doubt he becomes that inefficient.

They are at least even defensively. Ant more athletic, Jalen with better IQ. Trajectory relies on Ant living up to that athleticism.

Ant has been a negative in every series in terms of plus/minus until the Suns, where there are zero perimeter defenders. So I'm not taking this 4 game sample over the 82 game season. In the games before this series, only 3/11 games was Ant + in +/-

[shi-woo]

Weird thread by an OP who clearly just wants to show that SGA is a better player, but didn't go down that road.

As others have mentioned, you are comparing a 22 year old first contract player to dudes that have already played through half of their second contract. That in and of itself is disingenuous. Basketball is a sport where age and experience matters, and players are cmp'd to their peers/class.

Start comparing Ant to the guys he's going to be battling it out against his entire career like Jalen Williams, Lamelo, Cade, and the likes. You'll notice he's clearly head and shoulders above all those guys right now, and has clearly been the only one capable of being a legit #1 atm.

People won't admit it, but as the MVP race last year showed, race does matter to a lot of people. We can get away with just saying "The Euro invasion!" or "American born player" like some people in this thread are dong,when literally nobody cares about that. They just don't like that the 2 faces of the league right now are 2 pudgy white boys in a sport that dominates nonwhite culture in this country. I think it's ridiculous to assume that Ant is getting this attention for reasons outside of how fun he is to watch play, or how good he already is at such a young age. That's why we like Ant, not because of some fake Cold War narrative. If people honestly think that's not why he's getting this type of love, then again you're just buying into the same crap as last years MVP race

After watching Anthony Edwards play basketball, especially in a competative environment, if you don't understand the hype, then idk what to tell you

[zimpy27]

Good call, Ant and Jalen are similar in impact and age right now. Will be interesting to see who ends up better.

Certainly are similar impact players... oh wait.

Read on Twitter

I'm still waiting..

[life_saver]

Good call, Ant and Jalen are similar in impact and age right now. Will be interesting to see who ends up better.

Certainly are similar impact players... oh wait.

Read on Twitter

I mean, Jalen Williams scores 20 ppg on 62% TS. Any score 26 on 57.5% TS. For reference, Josh Giddey is 54.7%. Ant is much closer to Josh's efficiency than Jalen's. Put Jalen in the same spot he can definitely score more, does great without SGA on, and I doubt he becomes that inefficient.

They are at least even defensively. Ant more athletic, Jalen with better IQ. Trajectory relies on Ant living up to that athleticism.

Ant has been a negative in every series in terms of plus/minus until the Suns, where there are zero perimeter defenders. So I'm not taking this 4 game sample over the 82 game season. In the games before this series, only 3/11 games was Ant + in +/-

lol Raw Plus/Minus is not a good metric. Atleast use something like RPM, RAPM. Ant had a positive impact in both his first 2 playoff runs. Wolves were underdogs in Ant's first 2 playoffs series and Ant performed lot better than his RS numbers and his impact on court was positive. Just because Wolves lost both the series doesn't mean he was a negative

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Good call, Ant and Jalen are similar in impact and age right now. Will be interesting to see who ends up better.

Certainly are similar impact players... oh wait.

Read on Twitter

I mean, Jalen Williams scores 20 ppg on 62% TS. Any score 26 on 57.5% TS. For reference, Josh Giddey is 54.7%. Ant is much closer to Josh's efficiency than Jalen's. Put Jalen in the same spot he can definitely score more, does great without SGA on, and I doubt he becomes that inefficient.

They are at least even defensively. Ant more athletic, Jalen with better IQ. Trajectory relies on Ant living up to that athleticism.

Ant has been a negative in every series in terms of plus/minus until the Suns, where there are zero perimeter defenders. So I'm not taking this 4 game sample over the 82 game season. In the games before this series, only 3/11 games was Ant + in +/-

[Lunartic]

I'm old enough to remember when Donovan Mitchell was considered to be a superstar because of his playoff runs with Utah.

[thinktank]

I'm old enough to remember when Donovan Mitchell was considered to be a superstar because of his playoff runs with Utah.

I’m old enough to remember that he never played defense and that I never felt he was a superstar like I do with Ant.

I’m also old enough to compare Ant next to Rudy and Mitchell next to Rudy.

[tsherkin]

This isn't hard to answer.

His regular season play is a lot worse than how he's played during the playoffs. And when you look at his playoff metrics, they reflect the large difference in quality of play. When you're a high-volume scorer who is a negative TSAdd kind of guy, you tend not to do that well in overall numbers. When you're a +5.5% rTS guy in the playoffs, things look a little different. He's also shooting over 90% at the line so far in the postseason, and was under 84% in his first season as an 80%+ FT shooter in the RS.

He isn't the playmaker or rebounder we see from Luka, but he's a considerably better defender and he's been a monster in 3 straight playoff series. We'll see what happens in the second round, but like, he's been a beast. He's night and day on offense during the postseason to date in his career. In the RS, he's a bleh volume scorer under league-average efficiency, more exciting than high-impact. And then the playoffs start and he does this.

It's a small sample in the playoffs but it's more meaningful games. I don't know if this suggests that Ant doesn't play up to his ability in the RS because he's not that interested or whether it's a lucky run.

Though there are far more examples of the lucky run than the guy not playing to potential in RS. A recent lucky run guy is Rui.

Rui not in the same class as Edwards but a demonstration of small sample bias. Until this offseason Rui had played the same amount of playoff minutes as Edwards has now and Rui had a 68+% TS in those minutes. Now Rui is a similar TS% guy to Edwards in RS (maybe slightly better) but this massive playoff jump didn't make sense and now Rui is stinking it up in the playoffs (coming back to earth).


So I do think it's more likely that Ant is on a lucky run with shooting efficiency but he could also be bucking the trend and actually be a guy that just needs playoffs to sharpen his interest. I guess we wait and see.

Yeah, it's a short sample for sure. But the tools are there, especially after setting a new career-high at nearly 84% from the line this year. Caution for sure because the RS is a much larger sample and single games can affect things much more, no doubt. I had a post about that in the Trajectory thread.

Still, he has continued to murder the first round. We shall see how he does deeper in.

[mr570]

Ant is so insanely good. Just watching him last night hitting shot after shot. He has that "it" that can't be defined by metrics.

[_AIJ_]

Thunder fans are something else. I thought that was only on twitter

[RB34]

Not really why you called out Ant and used SGA as a reference. SGA isn’t on the same level as Luka and has done even less in the playoffs

[MoneyTalks41890]

Thunder fans are something else. I thought that was only on twitter

Just that one Naz account really tanks the whole Wolves twitter fandom.

[thelead]

Thunder fans are something else. I thought that was only on twitter

Nearly every topic discussing future stars gets spammed by them interjecting SGA, Chet, or Jalen Williams into the conversation

[OkcSinceSGA]

im sure i could pick 2 advanced stats categories that paint a different picture.

you probably wanna see your boy to get that recognition and thats why you picked those two, that you mentioned

Not at all. This is also a response to someone who said I just want to shout out SGA. I did that plenty already. The reason I mention Luka and SGA is that’s his direct competition among guards and literally who I keep seeing people say he’s equal to or better than. Sure, he’s a playoff riser it seems like his older brother Jimmy Butler, not trying to say otherwise. Just not going to use a 15 game sample to say he’s the next Jordan and should surpass Wade/Kobe etc.