Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

[tsherkin]

14 playoff games isn't a small sample size for the playoffs,

Yes, it is. The basic math of variance and how single games can affect what a player looks like over those games on average makes that very much the case.

You can see some trends emerging, of course. And Ant has played very well, so as I said before, you can't dismiss this sort of performance. But failing to acknowledge the sample size would be foolish.

[Special_Puppy]

This is nonsense


Tatum was in the playoffs every year from his rookie season on and didn't even play 60 playoff games until his 5th season. Luka hasn't even played 60 playoff games, he's at 31, Kyrie is only at 77 playoff games despite being in the league since 2011.

14 playoff games isn't a small sample size for the playoffs, stop comparing it to regular season games. LeBron has played 1492 regular season games and 286 playoff games, yet we're supposed to believe it takes 60+ playoff games to know whether or not a guy rises to the occasion? The things you guys come up with and these arbitrary numbers

Yeah that just means it takes several years until we even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. A 14 game sample doesn’t suddenly become less noisy just because overall sample sizes are smaller

Jokic has played 72 playoff games, he was under your 60 game threshold before the playoffs last season

I don't know how that changes anything? Yeah we didn't have very much of an idea of how good a playoff performer Jokic was relative to the regular season until last season.

[Special_Puppy]

Looking at the numbers, A LOT of Ant's success in the playoff so far is that he's shooting far more midrange+3 pointers AND hitting them at at a much higher clip than he did in the regular season. Is that sustainable? I have no earthly idea

[Klomp]

You can just take 1 game away, where he went 6-10 and his playoff 3 point percentage falls back to his regular season average more or less. It's a tiny sample.

Playoffs minus one 6-10 game: 37.7 3-point percentage on 8.7 attempts
Regular season career: 35.7 3-point percentage on 6.7 attempts

Weird, I was looking at his stats through 14 not 15 games. It's like basketball reference added last nights game while I was typing. So it's 2 games to get back to 35.78% vs 35.3% career.

Yeah the site is weird right now. The game shows up in game logs but not series stats.

[Rishkar]

Face of the league. Superstar. Best SG in the league. Things I’m seeing a lot right now. He’s basically the league darling right now. People talk about him like he’s the next Jordan. You even have insane people trying to partake in revisionist history and saying he’s in the same tier this season as Luka and SGA.

But something I find odd is he’s not well liked by impact metrics. SGA and Luka for example are .250-.270 WS/48 players which is HOF/MVP tier. Ant is at .130, which is literally not even all star tier basically. Normally players at that level are high end starters, to low end all stars. .100 is a league average player, .150 area is typically an all star, .200 is a superstar, .250-.300 is usually a first ballot HOF/Multiple time MVP (guys like MJ, Jokic, Wilt, LeBron, KG etc).

EPM has SGA and Luka at #2 and #3 for example with 8.8 and 7.9. Edwards is at 4.2 which is ranked 22nd in the league after guys like FVV. Why is his hype/reputation so much better than his impact metrics?

You know who else isn't like by the metrics and stat nerds? Kobe! You saw what he brought to the table night in and night out

Poor shot selection and lazy defense?

[Klomp]

Looking at the numbers, A LOT of Ant's success in the playoff so far is that he's shooting far more midrange+3 pointers AND hitting them at at a much higher clip than he did in the regular season. Is that sustainable? I have no earthly idea

Again, I think a necessary context is that so many of his inefficient dud games in the regular season come against bad teams where guys know they don't have to give maximum effort to get the win.

Here's a sampling of some of those...
17 points on 4-17 FGs vs. Spurs
26 points on 8-27 FGs vs. Raptors
9 points on 4-9 FGs vs. Blazers
27 points on 10-24 FGs vs. Pistons
9 points on 3-11 FGs vs. Hornets
38 points on 11-28 FGs vs. Wizards
24 points on 8-23 FGs vs. Nets
13 points on 4-10 FGs vs. Blazers
9 points on 4-11 FGs vs. Pistons
14 points on 4-12 FGs vs. Hawks

More times than not, he shows up in a big way when the game matters. But this is a definite area of growth that he's still working on.

[Grubie024]

As far as I know, based on the opinion of stats experts, most publicly available catch-all impact metrics out there are complete trash, and even the good ones are quite noisy. So it depends on what metrics you're talking about. Analytics are moving toward context-dependent specific stats and reports based on a compilation of such stats.

I look at EPM and DARKO, personally, because of the heavy use of tracking stats and decently set boxscore priors. PER, BPM, WS, VORP are all trash. LEBRON and RAPM are decent but too noisy.

Anthony Edwards shows up as a Top 20/25 player in EPM and DARKO, which is pretty good when you pair it up with the eyetest and the context of the team where he has a hugely impactful defensive player like Gobert who keeps the team at least solid defensively by himself, and someone who can still anchor an offense when Edwards is off the floor like Towns playing alongside him.

One reason his impact is getting better is his improvement as a playmaker. He's doing a much better job leveraging his scoring threat to create opportunities for others. This was especially the case against the Suns. If he keeps it up, I'd expect his impact numbers to get better next season.

As for the hype, Edwards is a player of the Jordan/Kobe/Wade prototype, that type always dazzles crowds and brings a psychological edge that may not show up in stats. He's also an up-and-comer, not a star whose greatness we're already used to.

This might be the highest value post I've seen on RealGM. This is the only response needed in this thread haha

[Special_Puppy]

Looking at the numbers, A LOT of Ant's success in the playoff so far is that he's shooting far more midrange+3 pointers AND hitting them at at a much higher clip than he did in the regular season. Is that sustainable? I have no earthly idea

Again, I think a necessary context is that so many of his inefficient dud games in the regular season come against bad teams where guys know they don't have to give maximum effort to get the win.

Here's a sampling of some of those...
17 points on 4-17 FGs vs. Spurs
26 points on 8-27 FGs vs. Raptors
9 points on 4-9 FGs vs. Blazers
27 points on 10-24 FGs vs. Pistons
9 points on 3-11 FGs vs. Hornets
38 points on 11-28 FGs vs. Wizards
24 points on 8-23 FGs vs. Nets
13 points on 4-10 FGs vs. Blazers
9 points on 4-11 FGs vs. Pistons
14 points on 4-12 FGs vs. Hawks

More times than not, he shows up in a big way when the game matters. But this is a definite area of growth that he's still working on.

Maybe? People say Jamal Murray is a good teams merchant and I’m kinda skeptical. In the regular season, the Wolves didn’t do THAT well against the Best teams (their point differential was breakeven against top 10 teams). Wolves also won less games than their overall point differential suggests and the Wolves do well in low leverage moments where Ant is on the floor both of which aren’t signs of a team/player taking their foot off the gas when the stakes are very low

[Klomp]

Looking at the numbers, A LOT of Ant's success in the playoff so far is that he's shooting far more midrange+3 pointers AND hitting them at at a much higher clip than he did in the regular season. Is that sustainable? I have no earthly idea

Again, I think a necessary context is that so many of his inefficient dud games in the regular season come against bad teams where guys know they don't have to give maximum effort to get the win.

Here's a sampling of some of those...
17 points on 4-17 FGs vs. Spurs
26 points on 8-27 FGs vs. Raptors
9 points on 4-9 FGs vs. Blazers
27 points on 10-24 FGs vs. Pistons
9 points on 3-11 FGs vs. Hornets
38 points on 11-28 FGs vs. Wizards
24 points on 8-23 FGs vs. Nets
13 points on 4-10 FGs vs. Blazers
9 points on 4-11 FGs vs. Pistons
14 points on 4-12 FGs vs. Hawks

More times than not, he shows up in a big way when the game matters. But this is a definite area of growth that he's still working on.

Maybe? People say Jamal Murray is a good teams merchant and I’m kinda skeptical. In the regular season, the Wolves didn’t do THAT well against the Best teams (their point differential was breakeven against top 10 teams). Wolves also won less games than their overall point differential suggests and the Wolves do well in low leverage moments where Ant is on the floor both of which aren’t signs of a team/player taking their foot off the gas when the stakes are very low

This was actually a major sign of growth for the team this season.

(In 2022-23) the Wolves went 7-13 against the teams with the seven worst records in the league, including a dumbfounding 1-9 against Charlotte, Washington, Detroit and Portland. (Copied from The Athletic, 12/9/2023)

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[Chessboxer]

Nikola Jokic, who is probably the best player in the league, isn't hard to watch, but I think I can name a good 30-40 players I'd rather watch than him.

This is all subjective but I don't understand how any basketball purist isn't thoroughly entertained by Jokic. I suppose those who prefer flashiness aren't but from a pure basketball perspective, watching his basketball genius on display who plays within the framework of a consummate team game is a sight to behold and, for me, is very entertaining sort of like how Duncan played.

I just have a bias towards "thinking" players. Brunson is another one that I find very entertaining without the obvious athleticism and explosiveness that conventional fans tend to gravitate towards.

Flashiness and IQ are not mutually exclusive. The MJ, Kobe and Wade archetype has mass appeal of course but they were all extremely intelligent players, which is why they reached the heights they did. Despite his artistry, Jerry West called MJ the most fundamentally sound player who ever played the game.

[CS707]

Fans love two things, potential and winners. Ant is still in the potential stage but also peaking at the right time winning wise so it's kind of a perfect storm for him. It'll come back down to earth if Minnesota doesn't do much in the playoffs over the next couple of years. People loved Jokic, then hated on him for not winning, then loved him again once he started winning.

[Lunartic]

Playoff games will always be more valued than RS games. It's not a coincidence that the vast, vast majority of players stats drop once the playoffs begin and that the truly elite players actually play better.

The same reason we don't care if a player balled out in NCAA or overseas - is the same reason most of us don't care about RS dominance.

I think Ant is being overrated here but he has definitely proven he can play in the post-season and that's special.

I stand by my Utah Donovan Mitchell comparison, their stats are very similar.

[thinktank]

Playoff games will always be more valued than RS games. It's not a coincidence that the vast, vast majority of players stats drop once the playoffs begin and that the truly elite players actually play better.

The same reason we don't care if a player balled out in NCAA or overseas - is the same reason most of us don't care about RS dominance.

I think Ant is being overrated here but he has definitely proven he can play in the post-season and that's special.

I stand by my Utah Donovan Mitchell comparison, their stats are very similar.

Offensive stats only.

You’re only looking at half the game.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Weird thread by an OP who clearly just wants to show that SGA is a better player, but didn't go down that road.

Yep. Obviously. So in that spirit... SGA is a better player now. I feel bad, however, for the OP for being so upset that SGA is not getting the attention he thinks is deserved. Another series win or three will certainly get SGA the attention the OP craves.

_____

Many people have chimed in why Edwards is popular right now. And popularity transcends statistics sometimes (see Kobe Bryant).

Edwards is less efficient than some other All NBA types. Is that because he's not as good? Or because he loses focus and does dumb immature stuff like banking in free throw and three point attempts or taking it noticeably easier vs. "bad" teams? Is it because he's not as smart yet on the court to make the smart play more often... or to figure out how officials call fouls driving to the hoop?

Maybe. Maybe a bit of all of it. And all are valid criticisms.

But right now, all we know for certain is that...

- Edwards has improved significantly in each of his four years in the league.
- Edwards has improved throughout this season.
- Edwards has a solid line through 15 playoff games.
- Edwards just had his best playoff series and was the #1 reason his team swept a team that was predicted to win the series by many people.

Obviously, he could plateau (but it would be rare at his age after this sort of tangible, consistent progress). Obviously, he will struggle at some point. But right now... he's hitting all the marks. People find him entertaining. He's seen as a leader (even at his age) by his teammates. He's competing hard.

Why whine about him... other than just to prop up your favorite player, of course.

[cornchip]

There's also just fewer things in basketball more exciting to watch than a hyper athletic, skilled shooting guard.

David Thompson, then obviously Jordan and to a lesser extent Drexler, Kobe, Wade and now Ant (and SGA).

The physical talent, skill, and competitiveness is obvious. Now he just needs to refine is game and mature a bit.

He dribbles far too much and takes far too many pull ups for my liking. With his quickness and explosiveness, all he needs are a few moves and attack the rim. The pull ups will always be there for him. The 5.8 FT's per game he shot this year are far too low...needs to be in the 9-10 range.

[life_saver]

Weird thread by an OP who clearly just wants to show that SGA is a better player, but didn't go down that road.

Yep. Obviously. So in that spirit... SGA is a better player now. I feel bad, however, for the OP for being so upset that SGA is not getting the attention he thinks is deserved. Another series win or three will certainly get SGA the attention the OP craves.

_____

Many people have chimed in why Edwards is popular right now. And popularity transcends statistics sometimes (see Kobe Bryant).

Edwards is less efficient than some other All NBA types. Is that because he's not as good? Or because he loses focus and does dumb immature stuff like banking in free throw and three point attempts or taking it noticeably easier vs. "bad" teams? Is it because he's not as smart yet on the court to make the smart play more often... or to figure out how officials call fouls driving to the hoop?

Maybe. Maybe a bit of all of it. And all are valid criticisms.

But right now, all we know for certain is that...

- Edwards has improved significantly in each of his four years in the league.
- Edwards has improved throughout this season.
- Edwards has a solid line through 15 playoff games.
- Edwards just had his best playoff series and was the #1 reason his team swept a team that was predicted to win the series by many people.

Obviously, he could plateau (but it would be rare at his age after this sort of tangible, consistent progress). Obviously, he will struggle at some point. But right now... he's hitting all the marks. People find him entertaining. He's seen as a leader (even at his age) by his teammates. He's competing hard.

Why whine about him... other than just to prop up your favorite player, of course.

yeah..people who don't watch Wolves regularly don't understand how much fancy/weird stuff Ant tries regularly in some RS games. There was a stretch this season where he was obsessed with thank bank shot and was spamming it so often just for the fun of it

[Lunartic]

Playoff games will always be more valued than RS games. It's not a coincidence that the vast, vast majority of players stats drop once the playoffs begin and that the truly elite players actually play better.

The same reason we don't care if a player balled out in NCAA or overseas - is the same reason most of us don't care about RS dominance.

I think Ant is being overrated here but he has definitely proven he can play in the post-season and that's special.

I stand by my Utah Donovan Mitchell comparison, their stats are very similar.

Offensive stats only.

You’re only looking at half the game.

Is Ant an elite defender or is he just good on a team with elite defenders?

Which stats inform your opinion on Ant's defense ? I'm curious because eye-test tells me he's solid man-on-man but not particularly elite anywhere else.

[Klomp]

The 5.8 FT's per game he shot this year are far too low...needs to be in the 9-10 range.

Tell the NBA officials. He absolutely could be getting 9-10 FTAs per game without changing a single part of how he plays.

[Klomp]

Playoff games will always be more valued than RS games. It's not a coincidence that the vast, vast majority of players stats drop once the playoffs begin and that the truly elite players actually play better.

The same reason we don't care if a player balled out in NCAA or overseas - is the same reason most of us don't care about RS dominance.

I think Ant is being overrated here but he has definitely proven he can play in the post-season and that's special.

I stand by my Utah Donovan Mitchell comparison, their stats are very similar.

Offensive stats only.

You’re only looking at half the game.

Is Ant an elite defender or is he just good on a team with elite defenders?

Which stats inform your opinion on Ant's defense ? I'm curious because eye-test tells me he's solid man-on-man but not particularly elite anywhere else.

And how was Mitchell defensively with that same elite defender?