Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

[docholliday99]

I think we all can recall Ant's draft year, there were questions of his motor and shot selection and some even questioned if he liked basketball. Scouts were talking ceiling but comparing him to Obi lol - I'm sure those scouts have been fired. Personally, I don't think Ant has shown yet that he wants to be great every game and every moment when on the court. He certainly has the ability to and he certainly has the ability to be in conversations with the all time greats but the fact that it has come up is a bit telling. I've watched Bird play, remember drafts back into the mid 80's, and I have to say, there's never been questions like this when a true talent comes along, like Bird, MJ, Bron, Wemby, etc, and again, not that Ant can't, I just think Ant gets bored and when the games count, you see a different player. You can even see it in the stats, ranked 11th RS on Raptor stats, 7th in the PO's; ranked 35th in PIE in the RS and currently 3rd in the PO's. Still, he's 22, lots of time.

[thinktank]

im sure i could pick 2 advanced stats categories that paint a different picture.

you probably wanna see your boy to get that recognition and thats why you picked those two, that you mentioned

Not at all. This is also a response to someone who said I just want to shout out SGA. I did that plenty already. The reason I mention Luka and SGA is that’s his direct competition among guards and literally who I keep seeing people say he’s equal to or better than. Sure, he’s a playoff riser it seems like his older brother Jimmy Butler, not trying to say otherwise. Just not going to use a 15 game sample to say he’s the next Jordan and should surpass Wade/Kobe etc.

How one starts is important.

Edwards is doing things few have done.

See how many 30, 5, 5 games he has by this point in his career. That's just one such stat but there are a lot of others. He's in elite company with Jordan, Lebron, Kareem, and Doncic names.

Yes, 15 playoff games in, but he's been fire.

Dude's just got huge balls.

[Klomp]

I love that I am still in your sig xD

I wish I could remember the context of it.

[tsherkin]

I love that I am still in your sig xD

I wish I could remember the context of it.

Hehehe.

[Klomp]

I think we all can recall Ant's draft year, there were questions of his motor and shot selection and some even questioned if he liked basketball. Scouts were talking ceiling but comparing him to Obi lol - I'm sure those scouts have been fired. Personally, I don't think Ant has shown yet that he wants to be great every game and every moment when on the court. He certainly has the ability to and he certainly has the ability to be in conversations with the all time greats but the fact that it has come up is a bit telling. I've watched Bird play, remember drafts back into the mid 80's, and I have to say, there's never been questions like this when a true talent comes along, like Bird, MJ, Bron, Wemby, etc, and again, not that Ant can't, I just think Ant gets bored and when the games count, you see a different player. You can even see it in the stats, ranked 11th RS on Raptor stats, 7th in the PO's; ranked 35th in PIE in the RS and currently 3rd in the PO's. Still, he's 22, lots of time.

I think "bored" is a good way to say it, and it really comes to life when you watch the team for all 82 games and see a pattern in the games he "struggles" the most in.

He's gotten a little more mature in this area, and he often has a big enough spurt to help win the game now as opposed to years past, but it's still an area of growth.

I think one big thing that people don't talk about enough though is his maturity. Yes he's a kid still and yes he has bravado and seems other times like just a happy-go-lucky kid, but he's not over-the-top cocky. He's pretty self-aware, admitting multiple times this season that he's probably only at around 40% of his true potential. He understands he has a ways to go in his development and he's shown a willingness to put in the work to get there.

[Special_Puppy]

OP is looking at Ant's regular season metrics and not his playoff metrics

i mean you have to be trolling, right, it's not like Ant only has 1 playoff series under his belt

He's only played 14 playoff games his entire career. That's a super small sample. You would never draw sweeping conclusions from 14 Regular season games.

[Special_Puppy]

Those are Rs numbers

Ant is a playoff riser like a Jimmy Butler who doesnt have that impressive impact or advanced metrics I'm the regular season. But in playoffs we see his true value.

Denver couldnt guard him at all last year and he was closer in level to Jokic that series than Murray or anyone else was to him

Its totally false that Butler doesn't have great impact metrics in the regular season first off. Second off we can't know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller based on a 14 game sample. You really need like 60+ games to start to get an idea.

[tsherkin]

OP is looking at Ant's regular season metrics and not his playoff metrics

i mean you have to be trolling, right, it's not like Ant only has 1 playoff series under his belt

He's only played 14 playoff games his entire career. That's a super small sample. You would never draw sweeping conclusions from 14 Regular season games.

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

[thinktank]

OP is looking at Ant's regular season metrics and not his playoff metrics

i mean you have to be trolling, right, it's not like Ant only has 1 playoff series under his belt

He's only played 14 playoff games his entire career. That's a super small sample. You would never draw sweeping conclusions from 14 Regular season games.

So you admit that this three year start to his playoff career has been a HOF trajectory.

[Special_Puppy]

OP is looking at Ant's regular season metrics and not his playoff metrics

i mean you have to be trolling, right, it's not like Ant only has 1 playoff series under his belt

He's only played 14 playoff games his entire career. That's a super small sample. You would never draw sweeping conclusions from 14 Regular season games.

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

[Klomp]

He's only played 14 playoff games his entire career. That's a super small sample. You would never draw sweeping conclusions from 14 Regular season games.

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller

It didn't stop people from clowning Karl-Anthony Towns after just 5 playoff games in 2018.

[sp6r=underrated]

Those are Rs numbers

Ant is a playoff riser like a Jimmy Butler who doesnt have that impressive impact or advanced metrics I'm the regular season. But in playoffs we see his true value.

Denver couldnt guard him at all last year and he was closer in level to Jokic that series than Murray or anyone else was to him

Its totally false that Butler doesn't have great impact metrics in the regular season first off. Second off we can't know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller based on a 14 game sample. You really need like 60+ games to start to get an idea.

It is unfortunate but playoff on/off numbers just can't be relied on due to the super small sample size and lack of opponent variety. Even 5 years of playoffs isn't even a full NBA RS. And a full NBA RS on/off numbers isn't a large enough sample size which is why the best single season on/off stats incorporate other seasons data to improve reliability.

For the post-season, box score stats are much more reliable than on/off. If a player's post-season box score looks the same as the regular season but there is a major change in the on/off you should just assume it is noise.

[sp6r=underrated]

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller

It didn't stop people from clowning Karl-Anthony Towns after just 5 playoff games in 2018.

I agree and it was a mistake.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

He's only played 14 playoff games his entire career. That's a super small sample. You would never draw sweeping conclusions from 14 Regular season games.

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

This is nonsense


Tatum was in the playoffs every year from his rookie season on and didn't even play 60 playoff games until his 5th season. Luka hasn't even played 60 playoff games, he's at 31, Kyrie is only at 77 playoff games despite being in the league since 2011.

14 playoff games isn't a small sample size for the playoffs, stop comparing it to regular season games. LeBron has played 1492 regular season games and 286 playoff games, yet we're supposed to believe it takes 60+ playoff games to know whether or not a guy rises to the occasion? The things you guys come up with and these arbitrary numbers

[dhsilv2]

He's only played 14 playoff games his entire career. That's a super small sample. You would never draw sweeping conclusions from 14 Regular season games.

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

You can just take 1 game away, where he went 6-10 and his playoff 3 point percentage falls back to his regular season average more or less. It's a tiny sample.

[Special_Puppy]

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

This is nonsense


Tatum was in the playoffs every year from his rookie season on and didn't even play 60 playoff games until his 5th season. Luka hasn't even played 60 playoff games, he's at 31, Kyrie is only at 77 playoff games despite being in the league since 2011.

14 playoff games isn't a small sample size for the playoffs, stop comparing it to regular season games. LeBron has played 1492 regular season games and 286 playoff games, yet we're supposed to believe it takes 60+ playoff games to know whether or not a guy rises to the occasion? The things you guys come up with and these arbitrary numbers

Yeah that just means it takes several years until we even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. A 14 game sample doesn’t suddenly become less noisy just because overall sample sizes are smaller

[Klomp]

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

You can just take 1 game away, where he went 6-10 and his playoff 3 point percentage falls back to his regular season average more or less. It's a tiny sample.

Playoffs minus one 6-10 game: 37.7 3-point percentage on 8.7 attempts
Regular season career: 35.7 3-point percentage on 6.7 attempts

[NoDopeOnSundays]

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

This is nonsense


Tatum was in the playoffs every year from his rookie season on and didn't even play 60 playoff games until his 5th season. Luka hasn't even played 60 playoff games, he's at 31, Kyrie is only at 77 playoff games despite being in the league since 2011.

14 playoff games isn't a small sample size for the playoffs, stop comparing it to regular season games. LeBron has played 1492 regular season games and 286 playoff games, yet we're supposed to believe it takes 60+ playoff games to know whether or not a guy rises to the occasion? The things you guys come up with and these arbitrary numbers

Yeah that just means it takes several years until we even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. A 14 game sample doesn’t suddenly become less noisy just because overall sample sizes are smaller

Jokic has played 72 playoff games, he was under your 60 game threshold before the playoffs last season

[dhsilv2]

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

You can just take 1 game away, where he went 6-10 and his playoff 3 point percentage falls back to his regular season average more or less. It's a tiny sample.

Playoffs minus one 6-10 game: 37.7 3-point percentage on 8.7 attempts
Regular season career: 35.7 3-point percentage on 6.7 attempts

Weird, I was looking at his stats through 14 not 15 games. It's like basketball reference added last nights game while I was typing. So it's 2 games to get back to 35.78% vs 35.3% career.

[dhsilv2]

The Memphis series was impressive; he was on an absolutely Curry-esque heater from 3 against the Grizz. 9.5 3PA/g, over 40% from 3. 4th-ranked defense, too.

It is indeed a short sample, and it's first-round only stuff too, but it is also now a trend over 3 straight seasons/postseasons, so it shouldn't be entirely swept away as short sample. He shoots a lot of 3s in the postseason, so there's something to be noted for potential variance over an extended postseason run, but he's one to keep an eye on for sure.

14 Games over 3 seasons is still a very small sample. Again, you'd never draw big conclusions from 14 regular season games so why would you draw conclusions from 14 playoff games? You really need 60+ games to even begin to know whether someone is a playoff riser or faller. Murray has played 57 playoff games and I'm not even sure if "Playoff Murray" is an actual thing

This is nonsense


Tatum was in the playoffs every year from his rookie season on and didn't even play 60 playoff games until his 5th season. Luka hasn't even played 60 playoff games, he's at 31, Kyrie is only at 77 playoff games despite being in the league since 2011.

14 playoff games isn't a small sample size for the playoffs, stop comparing it to regular season games. LeBron has played 1492 regular season games and 286 playoff games, yet we're supposed to believe it takes 60+ playoff games to know whether or not a guy rises to the occasion? The things you guys come up with and these arbitrary numbers

Playoff stats are inherently noisy. That's just how math works.

Now I can for example tell you that Murray has been better in the playoffs than regular season because that's just what's happened (prior to this year). I can't tell you that Murray ups his game vs he just has been lucky.