Post#22 » by runtmc » Mon Apr 29, 2024 6:46 am
1) Because offensive players are generally far more "hyped" than defensive players. Points per game is probably the single most overhyped stat. Numerous examples of this currently/historically. A huge portion of Ant's low advanced stats are related to having average defense.
2) Ant's best skill is his shot creation ability and high usage, and shot creation/usage are generally far more hyped than other offensive skills, but actually, in terms of offensive skills, shot creation and high usage arent particularly valuable (they do have value, but other things matter more). Numerous examples of players that can create for themselves/shoot a lot being overvalued currently/historically as well. The problem is that a big portion of Ant's low advanced stats though are related to having low efficiency, and low efficiency with high usage is particularly problematic -- his TS+ is 99 for comparison, meaning he's below league average efficiency.
Along that line, people are bad at noticing the difference between a player with say 55% TS and 60% TS. Say for example you score 30 but need 27 possessions vs say 25 possessions.. most people won't notice or care about that difference, but using two extra possessions a game loses your team ~2-2.5ppg (a possession on average is worth ~1-1.2p), and each ppg is worth about ~3 wins, so that costs your team something like 6-7 wins over the course of a season. They will notice that you scored 30 though, and overly value that.
3) Similar to efficiency, people don't notice as much things that effect possessions like offensive rebounding, steals, low turnovers, blocks (blocks are worth about half a possession) etc., but these are also extremely important for advanced stats, as each of these provide an extra offensive possession (or doesnt lose one). Again, each possession gained/not lost per game is worth a little over 1ppg, or about 3 wins per season for your team.
For example, Jordan, as a 21 year old rookie, averaged 2 oreb, 2.4stl, 0.8blk, to 3.5TO -- this is generally an extremely overlooked part of Jordan's game, 2oreb as a guard is ridiculous. In total, he gained his team +4.8 possessions and lost 3.5 to turnovers, a net of +1.3. Wade as a 22yo rookie was +0.9, Kobe as a 22yo was +0.3, SGA this season is +1.1, Jokic is +1.6, Ant is -0.9. The difference between SGA and Ant for example, purely in oreb, steals, blocks and turnovers is 2 possessions a game, or about 6-7 wins. I doubt many fans realize just how big of an impact that is.
4) Players that make flashy plays get more hype, and Ant is athletic/flashy. Young players also generally get overhyped because people assume best case scenarios for improvement, injuries, etc. because they are fans and want to see the next great player.
5) He's in a situation/team that emphasizes his strengths and hides his weaknesses. He's surrounded by a bunch of low usage extremely good defensive players, so naturally his defensive shortcomings are hidden and he has free reign to take as many shots as he wants more or less. If he were on a team with a bunch of scorers that were bad at defense, his lack of defense would be a lot harder to ignore, and not having as high a usage rate would lower his most visible contribution, eg scoring. Imagine him on Phoenix -- he wouldn't look nearly as good.
Thats most of it.
