Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

[OkcSinceSGA]

Face of the league. Superstar. Best SG in the league. Things I’m seeing a lot right now. He’s basically the league darling right now. People talk about him like he’s the next Jordan. You even have insane people trying to partake in revisionist history and saying he’s in the same tier this season as Luka and SGA.

But something I find odd is he’s not well liked by impact metrics. SGA and Luka for example are .250-.270 WS/48 players which is HOF/MVP tier. Ant is at .130, which is literally not even all star tier basically. Normally players at that level are high end starters, to low end all stars. .100 is a league average player, .150 area is typically an all star, .200 is a superstar, .250-.300 is usually a first ballot HOF/Multiple time MVP (guys like MJ, Jokic, Wilt, LeBron, KG etc).

EPM has SGA and Luka at #2 and #3 for example with 8.8 and 7.9. Edwards is at 4.2 which is ranked 22nd in the league after guys like FVV. Why is his hype/reputation so much better than his impact metrics?

[76Shots]

Because basketball is played on the court and not on an Excel spreadsheet.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Because basketball is played on the court and not on an Excel spreadsheet.

Sure, eye test is very important. But so is the hard data that isn’t swayed by flashy highlights, or scoring outbursts alone. I’m specifically asking why the data that emphasizes all around impact doesn’t like him.

[kveble]

Because he's the great American hope in the middle of all these foreign invaders.

[famicommander]

He's playing next to the DPOY, an All-Star, the 6th Man of the Year, a solid veteran point guard, and good role players with a good coach on top of it. He's going to have some of his numbers naturally deflated and some of his numbers inflated because of the quality surrounding him.

[thinktank]

Better check his playoff numbers.

And he’s 22!

The guys you mentioned are 5 years older.

[bovice]

Because basketball is played on the court and not on an Excel spreadsheet.

Sure, eye test is very important. But so is the hard data that isn’t swayed by flashy highlights, or scoring outbursts alone. I’m specifically asking why the data that emphasizes all around impact doesn’t like him.

what data? what metrics are u looking at and how are those metrics calculated? have you evaluated those things critically or do u take them at face value?

[zimpy27]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

[Marvin Martian]

Because he's the great American hope in the middle of all these foreign invaders.

This. The way the media and former NBA players responds to Edwards versus Jokic or Doncic is night and day. Edwards is marketable; the latter 2 are not.

[OkcSinceSGA]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Better check his playoff numbers.

And he’s 22!

The guys you mentioned are 5 years older.

He’s been awesome these 4 games. But that’s literally what it is. 4 games. It’s a small sample. If he does this to the finals or something, of course it will be far more understandable.

[thinktank]

Better check his playoff numbers.

And he’s 22!

The guys you mentioned are 5 years older.

He’s been awesome these 4 games. But that’s literally what it is. 4 games. It’s a small sample. If he does this to the finals or something, of course it will be far more understandable.

He’s been awesome for the last two years of playoffs and he’s awesome now.

He just didn’t have a healthy and talented team around him until now. (KAT was injured last year, and Naz and Jaden missed the playoffs).

[OkcSinceSGA]

Better check his playoff numbers.

And he’s 22!

The guys you mentioned are 5 years older.

Luka and SGA are 25. Ant is 22. Is that 5 years? As for his previous years, it’s fair. He does level up for the playoffs it seems. I’m not taking that away. Just found it weird that his impact isn’t keeping up in the data.

[zimpy27]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

Most young guys get liked for being cocky and trash talking, it's all about building them up to stomp on them when they inevitably fail to win a championship by 27. Ant is going to dragged if Wolves don't win a championship, better believe it. We're just not in the phase that is satisfying to you I guess.

Who are you talking about that gets killed for trash talk?

I specifically stated that man defenders don't get picked up well, bigs and help defenders do ok on box score because you pick up rebounds, steals and blocks. But even still KG was at 0.146 at 22, similar to Ant.

[MrBigShot]

His impact metrics are not poor. Check his ws/48 after it updates from tonight's game.

Ant has regularly elevated his game in the playoffs. His metrics aren't up to the top few MVP candidates in the regular season, yeah, but he's still literally in his rookie contract and it's a work in progress.

[shangrila]

I'll just leave this here...

https://stathead.com/tiny/cJAtk

[OkcSinceSGA]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

Most young guys get liked for being cocky and trash talking, it's all about building them up to stomp on them when they inevitably fail to win a championship by 27. Ant is going to dragged if Wolves don't win a championship, better believe it. We're just not in the phase that is satisfying to you I guess.

Who are you talking about that gets killed for trash talk?

I specifically stated that man defenders don't get picked up well, bigs and help defenders do ok on box score because you pick up rebounds, steals and blocks. But even still KG was at 0.146 at 22, similar to Ant.

KG came in out of high school and similar to Kobe took a few years to really become a positive player. I kinda missed the man defender qualifier, my bad. I’m saying in general guys like Booker, Luka, Embiid, Pat Bev, Draymond get hammered for being “cocky” or trash talk. People root for their downfall when they do it.

Yet with Edwards people supposedly love him for a lot of the same antics. It’s odd how it seems selective in how we react to behaviors based on WHO is doing it. Maybe it’s because he’s the new shiny young toy, but will be turned on in a few years I’m sure.

[OkcSinceSGA]

I'll just leave this here...

https://stathead.com/tiny/cJAtk

So SGA took 4 less shots while having better efficiency and impact? Seems accurate. Now let’s see if Ant can get to #2 in one of the most stacked MVP races in history arguably within the next two seasons.

[dk1115]

I never thought Anthony Edwards was the best SG in the league. But be honest, other than OKC/Minnesota fans, how many would rather watch SGA over Edwards?

Nikola Jokic, who is probably the best player in the league, isn't hard to watch, but I think I can name a good 30-40 players I'd rather watch than him.

[zimpy27]

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

Most young guys get liked for being cocky and trash talking, it's all about building them up to stomp on them when they inevitably fail to win a championship by 27. Ant is going to dragged if Wolves don't win a championship, better believe it. We're just not in the phase that is satisfying to you I guess.

Who are you talking about that gets killed for trash talk?

I specifically stated that man defenders don't get picked up well, bigs and help defenders do ok on box score because you pick up rebounds, steals and blocks. But even still KG was at 0.146 at 22, similar to Ant.

KG came in out of high school and similar to Kobe took a few years to really become a positive player. I kinda missed the man defender qualifier, my bad. I’m saying in general guys like Booker, Luka, Embiid, Pat Bev, Draymond get hammered for being “cocky” or trash talk. People root for their downfall when they do it.

Yet with Edwards people supposedly love him for a lot of the same antics. It’s odd how it seems selective in how we react to behaviors based on WHO is doing it. Maybe it’s because he’s the new shiny young toy, but will be turned on in a few years I’m sure.

KG was actually technically older than Ant when he debuted on an NBA court. Ant was 19yrs4mths, KG was 19yrs6mths.
Yeah one had college to begin but by this same age they've developed similarly.

Yeah trash talk absolutely gets turned on if he fails. That could be a bad series or a bad important game or by just failing to win with a loaded roster in a 3 year time span. I think he could start getting consensusly hated within 1-2 years. We should put bets on it.