Post Mortem 2023/24 - Phoenix Suns (Eliminated in 1st Round)

[Wigginstime]

I can't think of an NBA team in history that has been in a situation like this. They're in salary hell, they don't have draft picks, and they just got swept out of the first round with everyone healthy. There's really nothing they can do to improve, and tanking isn't an option.

Their entire starting lineup (Durant, Beal, Booker, Nurkic, & Allen) is locked into contracts for the never couple of years. I see no way for them to improve.

They have 2 options

1. Run it back with a new coach or new offensive / defensive schemes and hope they magically figure it out or get lucky with a late draft pick

2. Salary dump and start an early rebuild. Trade Durant for Expiring + Picks. Trade booker for best available assets. Let Beal lead the tank train.

[iggymcfrack]

I mean, I just don't see how they can improve

Booker is who he is (not saying he's bad, just that this is his ceiling in all likelihood), Beal and KD are only gonna get worse from here, they don't have anything to trade, and they don't have anyone of particular note in terms of prospects

Maybe they get favorable matchups next year, but I struggle to see this team make it out of the 2nd round as constructed.

Even making it into the second round is a pipe dream. Next year, the Suns are going to face age related decline, are very unlikely to enjoy the same good health they did this year, and will probably have to cut costs on their depth pieces as well. Meanwhile, Houston, Memphis, and San Antonio should all be vastly improved next season. If I were to rate the Suns’ chances next year, I’d say something like:

Make second round: 5%
Lose in first round: 20%
Lose in play-in: 35%
Fail to qualify for play-in: 40%

[djsunyc]

they can get stuff back for booker and get some stuff back for durant. beal is an albatross.

if they want to rebuild, booker a durant should net them 4-6 picks and 1-2 nice young players.

if they want to keep competing, then they must trade one of booker/kd to rebalance the roster.

i think something like booker for bam.

or booker for embiid.

[SFrush]

I can't think of an NBA team in history that has been in a situation like this. They're in salary hell, they don't have draft picks, and they just got swept out of the first round with everyone healthy. There's really nothing they can do to improve, and tanking isn't an option.

Yeah it's bleak.

[EmpireFalls]

I can't think of an NBA team in history that has been in a situation like this. They're in salary hell, they don't have draft picks, and they just got swept out of the first round with everyone healthy. There's really nothing they can do to improve, and tanking isn't an option.

2014 Nets? although they at least won a playoff series.

[bisme37]

Spoiler:

────────────────────────────
2023-24 record: 49-33
2nd in Pacific Division, 6th in West, swept by MIN

Off Rtg: 117.6 (9th)
Def Rtg: 114.6 (13th)
Net Rtg: +3.1 (9th)

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KEY DECISIONS?
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Run it back or tear it down or do something in between?

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PAYROLL | Link
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(From Bobby Marks)

────────────────────────────
FREE AGENTS
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• Royce O'Neale
• Eric Gordon (P)
• Josh Okogie (P)
• Bol Bol
• Drew Eubanks (P)

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DRAFT PICKS
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• 2024 - Own #22
• 2025 - To BRK
• 2026 - Least favorable of PHX, ORL, WAS 1-8 and MEM; and more favorable of PHX and WAS 1-8 to WAS [or neither to WAS if WAS not conveyable]; and more favorable of (i) ORL and (ii) less favorable of PHX and WAS 1-8 [or (ii) PHX only if WAS not conveyable] to ORL; and more favorable of (i) MEM and (ii) least / less favorable of PHX, ORL and WAS 1-8 to MEM if WAS does not convey 1st round pick to NYK in 2025; or Least favorable of PHX, ORL, WAS and MEM; and more favorable of PHX and WAS to WAS; and more favorable of (i) ORL and (ii) less favorable of PHX and WAS to ORL; and more favorable of (i) MEM and (ii) least favorable of PHX, ORL and WAS to MEM if WAS conveys 1st round pick to NYK in 2025 (via WAS swap for PHX; via ORL swap for PHX or WAS; via MEM swap for PHX, WAS or ORL)
• 2027 - To BRK
• 2028 - Least favorable of PHX, PHL 9-30 if PHL does not convey 1st round pick to BRK in 2027 and if PHL has conveyed 1st round pick to OKC by 2026, BRK and WAS; two most / more favorable of PHX, PHL 9-30 if conveyed to BRK, and BRK to BRK; more favorable of (i) WAS and (ii) least / less favorable of PHX, PHL 9-30 if conveyed to BRK, and BRK to WAS (via BRK swap of BRK or PHL for PHX; via WAS swap for PHX, BRK or PHL)
• 2029 - To BRK
• 2030 - Least favorable of PHX, WAS and MEM; more favorable of PHX and WAS to WAS; more favorable of (i) MEM and (ii) less favorable of PHX and WAS to MEM (via WAS swap for PHX; via MEM swap for PHX or WAS)

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Bisme, can you make a one sticky thread for all post mortem thread ? That would be awesome

Do you mean a thread with links to all the postmortems? Or a thread with all the postmortems copied and pasted into a long OP?

I'm not feeling too hot today and I'm really busy with work but I can prob do it later today or tomorrow. Another team or two could be eliminated in tonights games so I'll prob have to make new ones for them anyway.

[OfficialRef]

Smiling ear to ear

[jkvonny]

Tuff spot for the Suns. They are tied up with heavy contracts and lack future assets. Kind of stuck in a rut. Unless they get a major haul in some type of trades.

Keep the FO, its basically a new regime. Keep the coach, first season with his hands tied for what he had to work with.

Severely underachieved. Should have been a higher seed playoff team. Instead they were so inconsistent, clunky most of the season. They need a deeper bench and a PG.

They are somewhere in between treadmill or waning team.
Like the Lakers, Clips, Warriors and Bucks (to a certain extent)...... old declining team. Old superstars on these teams.

[One_and_Done]

Healthy and they win 55+ games. The season wasn't as bad as ppl will make it out to be. They need 3 things, all of which are doable:
1) More PnR (KD is totally wrong about this)
2) a 5 who can space out to 3 and hold up on D. Guys were just leaving Nurk wide open.
3) more depth pieces

[liquidswords]

Headline: Super Teams don't work anymore. You need a balanced team.

[BigDan245]

It was obvious that they weren't going to win a championship with this roster. Complete lack of talent and zero depth. They signed a bunch of minimum contracts and then proceeded to dump almost all of them for Royce O'Neale.

You either have to trade Booker or KD...Or you run it back and attempt to sign more minimum guys and hope a couple of them hit.

It's bleak. I don't know what other options you have. The talent level on this team is a joke. Playing the likes of Drew Eubanks against the best teams isn't an option.

But what else can you do? It's all you can afford. You've sunk all of your costs into 4 guys and have no ability to acquire anyone else.

[Pointgod]

a starting line-up of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen, Kevin Durant, and Jusuf Nurkic

that is what the Suns have locked themselves into

Guys like Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks will likely walk. Josh Okogie might come back because realistically who's going to throw him a ton of money.

Vogel seems to be shouldering the blame (again) as if he's supposed to actually save a team that is built this poorly.

It's not the fact that these 3 guys could NEVER potentially beat out teams off of pure offense, but the lack of a true point guard to tie everything together is the bigger issue.

I mean to be honest, this team needs a Draymond Green, desperately. I don't think Draymond would ever be available though, but if there was a way to send Beal to Golden State and somehow get Draymond back, the only reason you do this is because Golden State is turning a new leaf and Klay is also out the door. Curry obviously stays in, he gets a younger co-star in Beal with a solid basketball fit, the Warriors lose Draymond but they hold onto CP3.

But is it really possible to blame the FO? Pretty sure the talks were that the FO wanted to hold onto their young guys but the ownership butted in and said "get us the stars now" and they made these moves. No one legitimately thought this team NEEDED Bradley Beal, no one was thinking "oh yeah the Suns should trade for Bradley Beal" and yet they did it.

Is there a poor man’s Draymond Green available? If they don’t have a natural PG, then a point forward is the next best option and replacing Nurkic with a defensive big, but no assets left to move

[srhcan]

The new owner made their bet, and I expect them to go for it at least one more season. I mean, what other choices do they have? They can't rebuild with their picks till 2030, and Beal is untradable with his no-trade clause and 15% trade kicker. They might get something by trading KD, but it won't be anywhere near close to what they traded. And if they do trade KD, they might as well trade Booker for a complete rebuild... without their first-rounders. With everything considered, I don't think they have much choice but to go for the championship one more season.

Damn. Why would Washington would give such a bad contract

[Doctor MJ]

Depressing situation.

I said I wouldn't fire the GM, even though I think Jones has been overrated in the past, because frankly I think the current mess is on the owner.
I wouldn't fire the coach, because Vogel is an excellent coach, and I don't believe that coaching incompetence is really the explanation for why the Suns have set.

I said this was a waning team who disappointed, and yeah, that means I'd like to move on from some players...the question is how.

What's definitely the case is that I'd be looking to keep and build around Booker if he seemed game for it. Durant & Beal I'd certainly like to be able to trade for assets nearer to Booker's age.

[schnakenpopanz]

I can't think of an NBA team in history that has been in a situation like this. They're in salary hell, they don't have draft picks, and they just got swept out of the first round with everyone healthy. There's really nothing they can do to improve, and tanking isn't an option.

to their defense grayson allen might have been their 3rd best player all season. they missed his contribution a lot.

[Phystic]

Suns need to retain O'Neal, id actually like to see Bol Bol back since he's likely going to be cheap. Gordon can't leave soon enough. Eubanks I'm indifferent. Okogie I really like but only way we can bring him back is if he magically learns to shoot over the summer.

Suns need a coaching overhaul. Not sure if that means losing Vogel or simply bring new people to the team to implement actual systems and to hold players accountable.

But as we all know Suns are stuck with what they have

[Swish1906]

Healthy and they win 55+ games. The season wasn't as bad as ppl will make it out to be. They need 3 things, all of which are doable:
1) More PnR (KD is totally wrong about this)
2) a 5 who can space out to 3 and hold up on D. Guys were just leaving Nurk wide open.
3) more depth pieces

They weren’t even the team with the most DNP of relevant players. Also the key guys were healthy in the series against the Wolves….so?!

[Capn'O]

I can't think of an NBA team in history that has been in a situation like this. They're in salary hell, they don't have draft picks, and they just got swept out of the first round with everyone healthy. There's really nothing they can do to improve, and tanking isn't an option.

I can.

And, ironically, the move that solidified it was acquiring Stephon Marbury from these very same Phoenix Suns.

Headline: Super Teams don't work anymore. You need a balanced team.

You always did:

Spurs Big 3: Balanced AF. Then they got Kawhi.

Celtics: Garnett was an ATG defender and a very good facilitator, Ray and Pierce had complementing all around games. They also had Rondo.

Heatles: Bosh adjusted his game to provide defense and shooting and DWade and LeBron were all around all time talents

Warriors: Steph and Klay were perfect complements and Draymond was a legendary defensive player. Then they added a great iso talent in KD.


When you just cobble guys together, forget they're not longer in their prime, and forget about defense and playmaking it never did work. See late 90s Rockets, Dwightmare Lakers, and Durant's little sojourns. Clippers are a weird case because they should have had a contender but were never healthy enough and now the window is passed.

[One_and_Done]

Healthy and they win 55+ games. The season wasn't as bad as ppl will make it out to be. They need 3 things, all of which are doable:
1) More PnR (KD is totally wrong about this)
2) a 5 who can space out to 3 and hold up on D. Guys were just leaving Nurk wide open.
3) more depth pieces

They weren’t even the team with the most DNP of relevant players. Also the key guys were healthy in the series against the Wolves….so?!

So if their big 3 don't miss a combined 50 games they aren't playing the Wolves in Rnd 1 to begin with.

[KnicksGadfly]

Most people improve when they get more practice doing something, but Isiah Thomas seems to be getting a lot worse as a GM over time, and I didn’t think that was possible