2024 NBA Playoffs: West Semifinals: #2 Denver Nuggets vs #3 Minnesota Timberwolves (Series tied 3-3)

[AleksandarN]

Ant on MPJ seems like a mismatch in favor of the nugs. Ant's not going to be able to block him off the boards or contest the jumper.

This makes no sense.

How will ANT out rebound Porter or contest his shot?

[AleksandarN]

This makes no sense.

The question was, who guards MPJ is Jaden is on Murray?

MPJ is 6'11 and a pretty decent rebounder..Its hard to contest his jumper, especially at 6'5. If he's spotting up and Ant even helps off of him a little, its an open shot. If he crashes the boards and Ant's trying to box him out, tough matchup for Ant..

Obviously on the other end MPJ is not guarding Ant, otherwise the nugs would be in a lot of trouble.

If Porter is a "pretty decent rebounder" at 6'10" with 8.4 rebounds per game in the playoffs, what is Edwards at 6'4" technically with 8.0 rebounds per game?

Rebounding vs the Suns is a lot different than rebounding against a bigger team like the Nuggets

[Klomp]

The question was, who guards MPJ is Jaden is on Murray?

MPJ is 6'11 and a pretty decent rebounder..Its hard to contest his jumper, especially at 6'5. If he's spotting up and Ant even helps off of him a little, its an open shot. If he crashes the boards and Ant's trying to box him out, tough matchup for Ant..

Obviously on the other end MPJ is not guarding Ant, otherwise the nugs would be in a lot of trouble.

If Porter is a "pretty decent rebounder" at 6'10" with 8.4 rebounds per game in the playoffs, what is Edwards at 6'4" technically with 8.0 rebounds per game?

Rebounding vs the Suns is a lot different than rebounding against a bigger team like the Nuggets

As is rebounding against the Lakers vs. rebounding against the Timberwolves

[Domejandro]

Ant on MPJ seems like a mismatch in favor of the nugs. Ant's not going to be able to block him off the boards or contest the jumper.

This makes no sense.

How will ANT out rebound Porter or contest his shot?

I am pretty comfortable about Anthony Edwards being able to rebound adequately against Michael Porter Jr., the big question is whether or not Anthony Edwards can stay connected to Porter Jr. off-ball (where Anthony Edwards occasionally can get jammed-up/lost). If Anthony Edwards stays engaged off-ball, he should be able to contest fine, but Denver is extraordinarily creative with their sets to get MPJ open. While people people point to MPJ's height as a problem in that match-up, the real concern is that he is very slippery with his ability to change direction and hit defenders with a back-cut, when they over-commit to his three-point shooting ability.

If Denver wins this series, I would fully expect Michael Porter Jr.'s stats to be similar to what he dropped in the Los Angeles Lakers series. Minnesota is going to make it a point of emphasis, but the dude is a freak at getting himself open for Jokić.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I'm going to say Minnesota in 7, but only if KAT growns a spine and uses his size on those undersized defenders. If he just settles for threes, Denver wins.

This talking point kills me, because it's the complete opposite where Karl-Anthony Towns should be throwing up way more threes than he currently does. He already drives a ton, which leads to a bunch of offensive fouls. Towns' whistle is horrendous.

These people don't watch games, they just listen to Chuck talking points about Kat needing to drive and not shoot 3s. "Hurr durr back in my day a big went to the basket, so he should too."

When we litterally are way more likely to lose if Kat just drives (more turnovers/offensive fouls), then focus on shooting 3s which he is insanely elite at.

As likable/entetraining as the TNT crew is... I'm not looking forward to 7 games of Charles Barkley and Shaq throwing out that terrible, tired, lazy decade-old take.

It's every time they watch Towns play. And it's wrong. Every time. It's an even worse take now that the Timberwolves have Gobert clogging up the lane.



[Note: Towns averages 4.3 three-pointers per game in his career. 5.3 this season. Is there another player in the league that regularly shoots 40-42% most seasons being ripped incessantly for shooting too many threes? Heck, Towns' backup (Naz Reid) takes 5.0 threes per game.]

[AleksandarN]

If Porter is a "pretty decent rebounder" at 6'10" with 8.4 rebounds per game in the playoffs, what is Edwards at 6'4" technically with 8.0 rebounds per game?

Rebounding vs the Suns is a lot different than rebounding against a bigger team like the Nuggets

As is rebounding against the Lakers vs. rebounding against the Timberwolves

Again we are talking about Ant going against MPJ. The Suns are not that great of rebounding team. The gap between Lakers and the Suns are a lot bigger than the gap between Denver and Minnesota when it comes to size and rebounding

[Domejandro]

-I think a lot of people know Chris Finch used to coach in Denver under Michael Malone, as did assistant coach Micah Nori. But do people know that on Michael Malone's staff are former Timberwolves head coach Ryan Saunders and former Wolves assistant David Adelman?

More info on this one is that, when Michael Malone was wrongfully fired by the Sacramento Kings, Coach Flip Saunders immediately called him and invited him to join the Minnesota Timberwolves for a few weeks.

Watch on YouTube

Coach Malone talks about that experience and Flip for the first 3:24 of this interview.

[Domejandro]

Jaden McDaniels hounding Murray all game with an iffy calf does concern me. Even with a healthy calf, it's a tough matchup for Murray because of the size.

Who would they have guarding MPJ if McDaniels is on Murray? I'm curious how that will work because if that's the matchup, MPJ is going to be able to get more than his fair share.

Ant.

Murray - McDaniels
KCP - Conley
MPJ - Ant
Jokic - KAT
AG - Gobert

This is accurate, though what Denver fans should expect a lot of (if Jaden McDaniels stays out of foul trouble) is Nickeil Alexander-Walker coming in for Mike Conley, and having him chase Michael Porter Jr. around screens. While there is a size mismatch, NAW is arguably the best screen-navigator in the NBA, so I could see him being used as a weapon to make MPJ have to expend more energy, thoughout the game. If this happens, you will see Minnesota five-man crash the defensive boards. That said, if Jaden McDaniels gets in foul trouble, ignore all of that, because NAW will then take the Jamal Murray match-up.

Alternatively, I think you could see Kyle Anderson playing Small-Forward to provide some size against Michael Porter Jr.

[Sealab2024]

I'm going to say Minnesota in 7, but only if KAT growns a spine and uses his size on those undersized defenders. If he just settles for threes, Denver wins.

This talking point kills me, because it's the complete opposite where Karl-Anthony Towns should be throwing up way more threes than he currently does. He already drives a ton, which leads to a bunch of offensive fouls. Towns' whistle is horrendous.

These people don't watch games, they just listen to Chuck talking points about Kat needing to drive and not shoot 3s. "Hurr durr back in my day a big went to the basket, so he should too."


When we litterally are way more likely to lose if Kat just drives (more turnovers/offensive fouls), then focus on shooting 3s which he is insanely elite at.


He carried us first quarters vs Suns game 4 by basically being lights out from 3, when they overhelped on Ant. And he is so big he shoots over most matchups.

It drives me insane from Chuck and Shaq. Every metric firmly states that when KAT takes more 3's per game than his average our offensive efficiency skyrockets. All year we were begging him to shoot more and when he went down and Naz came in with an itchy trigger finger from 3 that's exactly what happened. Rudy works offensively because KAT can stretch the floor so Rudy doesn't completely clog the interior. This allows for driving lames.

There are parts of KATs game I really can't stand; his newborn giraffe drives to the basket and lack of situational awareness being at the top of that list, but knocking KAT for shooting threes just proves to me how little you actually know about the player, his team, the current game and how it's played.

[Domejandro]

This Finch thing is going to matter, at least a little. Not having your HC in the huddle is gonna be weird.

For what it is worth, though I am pretty bummed about it, Coach Finch has a coaching philosophy of empowering his assistants more than most coaches in the NBA, so the "next man up" cliche is a bit more applicable/possible for the Minnesota Timberwolves to survive. I am optimistic that Micah Nori will be able to do a good job, especially with Coach Finch sitting behind him.

It is definitely a problem that I am concerned about, but it should manageable.

[Rubio9Guy]

I think the Wolves win in 6. My gut says it's a 7 game series, but I wouldn't bet against Denver at home in game 7.

I think the Wolves are quite a bit better than last year's matchup and Denver is worse with the departure of Bruce Brown.


Should be a great series.

[TheFire]

Gonna be embarrassing if Rudy Gobert wins DPOY and then gets ragdolled by Jokic this series.

Barring foul trouble, Rudy Gobert should not be frequently guarding Nikola Jokić throughout this series. Minnesota has sent Karl-Anthony Towns as Jokić's primary defender for two seasons now, they have him defend in single coverage.

That is what makes Minnesota such a difficult match-up for the Denver Nuggets. Karl-Anthony Towns is arguably the best man-to-man defender against Jokić in the NBA (very unique match-up) and Rudy Gobert is able to roam off of Aaron Gordon to jam up the paint and hard hedge on ball-screen actions.

Why do you think KAT is the best man-to-man defender against Jokic?

[HotRocks34]

Right now I favor Minny slightly because Denver's backcourt is shaky. Brown is missed.

[Domejandro]

Gonna be embarrassing if Rudy Gobert wins DPOY and then gets ragdolled by Jokic this series.

Barring foul trouble, Rudy Gobert should not be frequently guarding Nikola Jokić throughout this series. Minnesota has sent Karl-Anthony Towns as Jokić's primary defender for two seasons now, they have him defend in single coverage.

That is what makes Minnesota such a difficult match-up for the Denver Nuggets. Karl-Anthony Towns is arguably the best man-to-man defender against Jokić in the NBA (very unique match-up) and Rudy Gobert is able to roam off of Aaron Gordon to jam up the paint and hard hedge on ball-screen actions.

Why do you think KAT is the best man-to-man defender against Jokic?

Karl-Anthony Towns has the size to physically battle with Nikola Jokić, while also being very mobile laterally. People aren't aware of it, but Towns is actually a really impressive defensive player in single-coverage and high-wall action. Towns has the capacity to get into the body of Jokić without giving up driving lanes or height, which enables Minnesota to not have to double. It is similar to what people saw in the Phoenix series (I know a lot more people watched that, rather than last year's Minnesota/Denver series, understandably). Leave Karl-Anthony Towns on an island against Durant/Jokić while Minnesota largely eliminates any open three-point attempts for the rest of the team; Towns is elite at being able to contain, which empowers others to do their jobs.

Small sample-size evidence of Karl-Anthony Towns actually being an outrageously underrated defensive player:

Read on Twitter

The reason why he sucked for so many years defensively is that Towns is arguably the worst player in the NBA in drop-coverage (even before Rudy Gobert joined Minnesota, he graded out as a positive-impact defender immediately when Minnesota switched away from drop-coverage). I legitimately have never seen a worse drop-coverage big man in my entire life, it was a revelation when Minnesota made the swap and Towns magically looked competent.

As a note, Karl-Anthony Towns did shed 15-20 pounds during his recovery from the torn meniscus, so that may be a consideration for the point on size. I don't particularly think so, but figured it was worth mentioning. A secondary point is that Nikola Jokić has an ability to torch Rudy Gobert, even when Gobert plays the most aggressive man-to-man defense of his career. I have seen Jokić make unethically freakish and-1's around Rudy's wingspan that give me nightmares.

[ShootersShoot]

This makes no sense.

How will ANT out rebound Porter or contest his shot?

I am pretty comfortable about Anthony Edwards being able to rebound adequately against Michael Porter Jr., the big question is whether or not Anthony Edwards can stay connected to Porter Jr. off-ball (where Anthony Edwards occasionally can get jammed-up/lost). If Anthony Edwards stays engaged off-ball, he should be able to contest fine, but Denver is extraordinarily creative with their sets to get MPJ open. While people people point to MPJ's height as a problem in that match-up, the real concern is that he is very slippery with his ability to change direction and hit defenders with a back-cut, when they over-commit to his three-point shooting ability.

If Denver wins this series, I would fully expect Michael Porter Jr.'s stats to be similar to what he dropped in the Los Angeles Lakers series. Minnesota is going to make it a point of emphasis, but the dude is a freak at getting himself open for Jokić.

Yea, MPJ will be one of the main x-factors. If he can be contained, the wolves will definitely have an advantage.
Rebounding, I was discussing in a 1v1 scenario. Obviously, the wolves have outstanding size and rebounding outside of Ant so it really wouldnt be a huge issue but could factor into how much AE can be matched up against MPJ for example.

[ShootersShoot]

If Porter is a "pretty decent rebounder" at 6'10" with 8.4 rebounds per game in the playoffs, what is Edwards at 6'4" technically with 8.0 rebounds per game?

Rebounding vs the Suns is a lot different than rebounding against a bigger team like the Nuggets

As is rebounding against the Lakers vs. rebounding against the Timberwolves

Well, yea but MPJ's career playoff rebounding averages per 36 is 8.7 while Ant's is 5.1, albeit on much different sample size.

[JustBuzzin]

This is the year of the Ant!

Wolves in 6!

[bisme37]

Just noticed there's a long break in between games 2 and 3. Game 1 is Sat, Game 2 is Mon... and then Game 3 is four days later on Friday. Kinda weird.

[docholliday99]

Barring foul trouble, Rudy Gobert should not be frequently guarding Nikola Jokić throughout this series. Minnesota has sent Karl-Anthony Towns as Jokić's primary defender for two seasons now, they have him defend in single coverage.

That is what makes Minnesota such a difficult match-up for the Denver Nuggets. Karl-Anthony Towns is arguably the best man-to-man defender against Jokić in the NBA (very unique match-up) and Rudy Gobert is able to roam off of Aaron Gordon to jam up the paint and hard hedge on ball-screen actions.

Why do you think KAT is the best man-to-man defender against Jokic?

Karl-Anthony Towns has the size to physically battle with Nikola Jokić, while also being very mobile laterally. People aren't aware of it, but Towns is actually a really impressive defensive player in single-coverage and high-wall action. Towns has the capacity to get into the body of Jokić without giving up driving lanes or height, which enables Minnesota to not have to double. It is similar to what people saw in the Phoenix series (I know a lot more people watched that, rather than last year's Minnesota/Denver series, understandably). Leave Karl-Anthony Towns on an island against Durant/Jokić while Minnesota largely eliminates any open three-point attempts for the rest of the team; Towns is elite at being able to contain, which empowers others to do their jobs.

Small sample-size evidence of Karl-Anthony Towns actually being an outrageously underrated defensive player:

Read on Twitter

The reason why he sucked for so many years defensively is that Towns is arguably the worst player in the NBA in drop-coverage (even before Rudy Gobert joined Minnesota, he graded out as a positive-impact defender immediately when Minnesota switched away from drop-coverage). I legitimately have never seen a worse drop-coverage big man in my entire life, it was a revelation when Minnesota made the swap and Towns magically looked competent.

As a note, Karl-Anthony Towns did shed 15-20 pounds during his recovery from the torn meniscus, so that may be a consideration for the point on size. I don't particularly think so, but figured it was worth mentioning. A secondary point is that Nikola Jokić has an ability to torch Rudy Gobert, even when Gobert plays the most aggressive man-to-man defense of his career. I have seen Jokić make unethically freakish and-1's around Rudy's wingspan that give me nightmares.

I'm not so sure KAT's number's, though impressive against the smaller Suns (who either tried to shoot over Kat on the perimeter or faced Gobert in the paint), don't really mean much against the Nuggets and the 6'-11" Jokic. I mean, yes KAT is a better defender than advertised, but Jokic has proven he'll get his numbers against every team; and against KAT, Jokic has averaged 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists in the 5 playoff games in their career matchups. In 2024 they've only met once and Jokic went 25/10/3 in that game (and not that KAT was a slouch either, as he went 21/8/4). Outside their one playoff series, the teams have played to a .500 record, so I'm looking forward to this match-up.

AG's shooting could be an issue for the Nuggets and I wouldn't mind seeing Braun mixed in more, with MPJ moving to the 4 against KAT or Gobert to mix things up (MPJ is playing incredible so far, much better than last year's playoffs). Still, AG's quick and creates a lot of problems and I'm sure we'll see a lot of switches.

[HMFFL]

They faced each other a total of 19 times in NBA games. Nikola Jokic has a 12-7 winning record over Anthony Edwards, including a 4-1 record in Playoffs.

https://www.landofbasketball.com/games_between/anthony_edwards_vs_nikola_jokic.htm#google_vignette

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