2024 NBA Playoffs: West Semifinals: #2 Denver Nuggets vs #3 Minnesota Timberwolves (Series tied 3-3)

[_NoMas]

Minny in 6 bc they got the best player in the series plus denvers bench is shallow.

Thanks for your input chokic

[Crunch 99]

In Q4s over first round of playoffs, Anthony Edwards has arguably been the NBA's best player: He has a league-leading 10.5 ppg on 82.7 TS% with a league-leading 34 PIE (Player Impact Estimate). Source: NBA.com.

[Quentin]

The refs will decide this series.

[Grubie024]

Minnesota's got a real shot!
I picked Wolves in 6. I like their depth. Nuggets have two of the three best players in the series but Wolves thoroughly outclass them beyond Jokic/Murray.
Need good KAT to show up, not the one who makes non-stop boneheaded plays. He was great against the Suns.

I think MPJ out plays KAT.

Personally, I doubt that, but MPJ does have that ability. Gonna be a helluva battle.

[Grubie024]

The refs will decide this series.

Now why you gotta go say something like that!?!
God I hope not. Let em play.

[Quentin]

The refs will decide this series.

Now why you gotta go say something like that!?!
God I hope not. Let em play.

Refs have been odd. They started out the playoffs not calling anything, then a switch turned and they started calling the ticky tack stuff. The latter is what makes me question whether this league is real or not.

[p0peye]

Minny in 6 bc they got the best player in the series plus denvers bench is shallow.

Thanks for your input chokic

Best player always wins, it has been proven times and again, it's how Knicks just won as Brunson proved to be better than Maxey. It will happen in this series as well.

[durden_tyler]

Porter has been mentioned a lot as the probable key cog for Denver (assumption is Murray and Jokic will get theirs anyway). i do think the Wolves have the defensive weapons to make MPJ’s life miserable this series (relative to cakewalk that was the Lakers)

Interesting to see who McDaniels guard most of the time; would it be Murray so that the focus of the attack is addresses immediately? Or would it be better if he’s helping out both against the Murray and/or Jokic sets?

McDaniels-Murray
Conley-KCP
Ant-Porter
KAT-Gordon
Gobert-Jokic

Maybe?

[JJ_PR]

I think the Wolves can pull off the upset. They match-up well against the Nuggets, their bigs will give Jokic issues.

[shrink]

I always thought it’s Minny [who matches up best against DEN - sic] because they are best at negating the things at negating DEN’s match up advantages.

MIN plays Towns on Jokic. Nobody stops Jokic, but Towns length helps reduce his passing ability, and makes Jokic more of a scorer. That allows Gobert to protect the paint while he guards Aaron Gordon. For most teams, that means if they use their PF and C this way, Porter has a big size advantage on his defender. The Wolves though are loaded with quality players 6-9 or taller, with Jaden McDaniels, Naz, and Kyle Anderson. We may even see Ant on him. In fact, MIN likely has the size advantage in the match up, because DEN’s bench bigs aren’t as deep as MIN.

Next, Jamal Murray is an under-rated player finally getting his due, and a lot of that credit goes to receiving great passes from Jokic. But MIN is showing that with defenders like McDaniels and Ant (and Nickiel Alexander-Walker), they can really limit perimeter scorers, like Devin Booker.

On the other hand, how does DEN handle Ant? They don’t have Brown this year, and the only player that could maybe defend him is Gordon. KCP is a good defender, but can’t stop Ant one-on-one. Gordon is the ONLY option they have to defend Towns size and scoring ability. Towns shoots over smaller guys, and drive past bigger, slower defenders.

MIN needs to win the minutes when Jokic is off the floor, and with their much better depth, they should.

I’m not saying MIN is better than DEN, and they should be favored. I am saying that MIN’s team composition (both built by Tim Connelly) create a lot of match up issues for the Nuggets. I wonder if Connelly realized that for the MIN to have high level success, he needed to build a team that could match up with with DEN, and that influenced him to pay such a high price to acquire Gobert?

[cupcakesnake]

They can play Gordon on Ant if they want. Denver usually plays a switching man to man defense because they have two plus defenders who can take on the point of attack. They routinely rotate their forwards. You can almost bet that Gordon will be switching in that direction. MPJ is more of a inside rebounding force with his new found defensive presence, shot blocking and 6'10 height at small forward.

They'll run a lot of scram switching against Minnesota picks, so you can basically expect everyone on their team to spend a few possessions against everyone. With KCP, Gordon, Braun, Watson, Denver is designed to be able to switch and adapt without exposing too many weak points.

This is what I've been thinking as well. It's not going to come down to X player on Y player matchups. There will be lots of switching on D and lots of different schemes on both ends. Every game is going to look different as well, not just based on previous matchup success, but also to keep the other teams off balance. Should be an interesting series. I'm still quite nervous though.

We as fans definitely get way too hung up on matchups (and the media amplifies this shallow style of analysis). Basketball media is allergic to explaining team strategy so saying who will guard who at the beginning of a halfcourt possession is all we get, haha.

Whenever we're talking about stopping a star offensive player (Ant in this case), it's about who the opponent (Denver) wants to have guarding him, who are the weak matchups they want to avoid, and what is the system that helps preserve good matchups and prevents bad defensive breakdowns.

It's always dumb to over index on matchups, but feels particularly meaningless against switching defenses. The whole Kawhi era in Clipperland, people would talk about who Kawhi defends, but that when was the last time we saw the Clippers avoid a switch? Who cares who Kawhi guards at the beginning of a possession if we know the opponent can change the defender with a single screen?

With Denver, they love to switch, but it's scram switching. They pre-switch defenders to get the preferred guy guarding the screener, and they switch off-ball after to correct any bad matchups that will impact secondary action. Everyone in Denver will guard Ant, but they'll do things to make sure it's not Jokic guarding him far away from the hoop, and they'll probably prioritize avoiding too many Murray in the paint. Ant is not massively tall though, so I think Denver is going to be pretty comfortable with Murray on him. Murray absolutely will fight hard against a mismatch. They're around the same height, thought Ant is longer and probably outweighs him by 15 pounds.

Obviously you want to keep Reggie Jackson the hell away from Ant, but I look at this Denver roster and think Ant has his work cut out for him. If he can blow by guys, he'll get some nice looks at the rim with Denver's lack of rim protection, but there are 5 guys in the rotation that can at least survive on Ant, if not bother him.

There's the possibility of Ant having a tough series...but I feel much more worried for Murray. He looked slowed at times against the Lakers total lack of perimeter defense and now he has to go up against the scariest collection of ball pressure guys in the league. Denver will work to get Murray attacking off screens, but there are very few fun options for him. He's going to face a ton of possessions against Jaden, NAW, and Ant. All bigger than him, all fierce and aggressive, all emboldened by all the rim protection behind him.

[mademan]

Porter has been mentioned a lot as the probable key cog for Denver (assumption is Murray and Jokic will get theirs anyway). i do think the Wolves have the defensive weapons to make MPJ’s life miserable this series (relative to cakewalk that was the Lakers)

Interesting to see who McDaniels guard most of the time; would it be Murray so that the focus of the attack is addresses immediately? Or would it be better if he’s helping out both against the Murray and/or Jokic sets?

McDaniels-Murray
Conley-KCP
Ant-Porter
KAT-Gordon
Gobert-Jokic

Maybe?

Lakers had a great strategy that really limited the Nuggets offense, they should emulate it. Double Jokic and pre-rotate. Minny is bigger and longer almost all across the board (Conley exception) so it should work out better for them.

[cupcakesnake]

Porter has been mentioned a lot as the probable key cog for Denver (assumption is Murray and Jokic will get theirs anyway). i do think the Wolves have the defensive weapons to make MPJ’s life miserable this series (relative to cakewalk that was the Lakers)

Interesting to see who McDaniels guard most of the time; would it be Murray so that the focus of the attack is addresses immediately? Or would it be better if he’s helping out both against the Murray and/or Jokic sets?

McDaniels-Murray
Conley-KCP
Ant-Porter
KAT-Gordon
Gobert-Jokic

Maybe?

Lakers had a great strategy that really limited the Nuggets offense, they should emulate it. Double Jokic and pre-rotate. Minny is bigger and longer almost all across the board (Conley exception) so it should work out better for them.

I don't think the Wolves will emulate much of the Lakers strategy. The Lakers strategy was good, but it was built to protect their vulnerabilities. They didn't have big bodies to throw at Jokic, and they didn't have any good perimeter defenders. The Wolves don't have those vulnerabilities so they don't need to design a scheme to protect themselves from that.

The Wolves are much more well equipped to play the Nuggets aggressively, and can survive a lot more situations in single coverage. The Wolves will try to overwhelm the Nuggets.

[CD_41]

Porter has been mentioned a lot as the probable key cog for Denver (assumption is Murray and Jokic will get theirs anyway). i do think the Wolves have the defensive weapons to make MPJ’s life miserable this series (relative to cakewalk that was the Lakers)

Interesting to see who McDaniels guard most of the time; would it be Murray so that the focus of the attack is addresses immediately? Or would it be better if he’s helping out both against the Murray and/or Jokic sets?

McDaniels-Murray
Conley-KCP
Ant-Porter
KAT-Gordon
Gobert-Jokic

Maybe?

Lakers had a great strategy that really limited the Nuggets offense, they should emulate it. Double Jokic and pre-rotate. Minny is bigger and longer almost all across the board (Conley exception) so it should work out better for them.

I don't think the Wolves will emulate much of the Lakers strategy. The Lakers strategy was good, but it was built to protect their vulnerabilities. They didn't have big bodies to throw at Jokic, and they didn't have any good perimeter defenders. The Wolves don't have those vulnerabilities so they don't need to design a scheme to protect themselves from that.

The Wolves are much more well equipped to play the Nuggets aggressively, and can survive a lot more situations in single coverage. The Wolves will try to overwhelm the Nuggets.

In your opinion, what would you say are the biggest improvements the Wolves made defensively this year compared to the last playoffs where they played against the Nuggets. Obviously McDaniels was missing the series, which was a big deal, but just from a schematic/tactical or even effort level, what has changed since then?

Thanks for answering.

[Jaqua92]

I've felt that Minnesota's offense wouldn't be enough in the post season.

And I don't think it should be overlooked how bad Phoenix was defensively and offensively. I also think that if Minnesota got the same Lakers, same whistle, same AD and same LeBron the Nuggets did, Minnesota doesn't take care of them in 5.

For Denver, it was moreso about overcoming AD and Lebron's dominance. Now, it'll be about overcoming Minnesota's defense. 1v1, AD may be Jokic's toughest matchup. But I really don't think KAT and Edwards will be as productive as LeBron and AD were.

In some kind of ways, the Lakers (at least the way they played and were officiated in the first round) may be a tougher matchup than Minnesota.

I'm just not sold on this Minnesota team. I know they were missing KAT last time they played, but Denver did that thing in the 3rd quarter where they flipped a switch and burried them.

If Denver can still find those 6-8 minute stints, once per game, where they seem unstoppable (and I don't think KAT is the difference there), I can't see Minnesota beating them 4 out of 7 times.


If Denver plays with desperation, and hunger, they should fine.

This honestly could go Denver in 5, with 3 blowouts. It could go Minnesota in 6, or Denver in 7.

[Jaqua92]

Porter has been mentioned a lot as the probable key cog for Denver (assumption is Murray and Jokic will get theirs anyway). i do think the Wolves have the defensive weapons to make MPJ’s life miserable this series (relative to cakewalk that was the Lakers)

Interesting to see who McDaniels guard most of the time; would it be Murray so that the focus of the attack is addresses immediately? Or would it be better if he’s helping out both against the Murray and/or Jokic sets?

McDaniels-Murray
Conley-KCP
Ant-Porter
KAT-Gordon
Gobert-Jokic

Maybe?

Lakers had a great strategy that really limited the Nuggets offense, they should emulate it. Double Jokic and pre-rotate. Minny is bigger and longer almost all across the board (Conley exception) so it should work out better for them.

I don't think the Wolves will emulate much of the Lakers strategy. The Lakers strategy was good, but it was built to protect their vulnerabilities. They didn't have big bodies to throw at Jokic, and they didn't have any good perimeter defenders. The Wolves don't have those vulnerabilities so they don't need to design a scheme to protect themselves from that.

The Wolves are much more well equipped to play the Nuggets aggressively, and can survive a lot more situations in single coverage. The Wolves will try to overwhelm the Nuggets.

I just don't think Kat is the difference, and Denver is still capable of the going on those 5-6 minute stints of domination.

They'll try to overwhelm the Nuggets, but at the same time, they won't have the fire power LA did.

[Sealab2024]

Lakers had a great strategy that really limited the Nuggets offense, they should emulate it. Double Jokic and pre-rotate. Minny is bigger and longer almost all across the board (Conley exception) so it should work out better for them.

I don't think the Wolves will emulate much of the Lakers strategy. The Lakers strategy was good, but it was built to protect their vulnerabilities. They didn't have big bodies to throw at Jokic, and they didn't have any good perimeter defenders. The Wolves don't have those vulnerabilities so they don't need to design a scheme to protect themselves from that.

The Wolves are much more well equipped to play the Nuggets aggressively, and can survive a lot more situations in single coverage. The Wolves will try to overwhelm the Nuggets.

I just don't think Kat is the difference, and Denver is still capable of the going on those 5-6 minute stints of domination.

They'll try to overwhelm the Nuggets, but at the same time, they won't have the fire power LA did.

In what way will the wolves not "have the fire power of LA"? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you haven't watched many wolves games, correct?

[cupcakesnake]

I don't think the Wolves will emulate much of the Lakers strategy. The Lakers strategy was good, but it was built to protect their vulnerabilities. They didn't have big bodies to throw at Jokic, and they didn't have any good perimeter defenders. The Wolves don't have those vulnerabilities so they don't need to design a scheme to protect themselves from that.

The Wolves are much more well equipped to play the Nuggets aggressively, and can survive a lot more situations in single coverage. The Wolves will try to overwhelm the Nuggets.

I just don't think Kat is the difference, and Denver is still capable of the going on those 5-6 minute stints of domination.

They'll try to overwhelm the Nuggets, but at the same time, they won't have the fire power LA did.

In what way will the wolves not "have the fire power of LA"? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you haven't watched many wolves games, correct?

I've said it before in this thread, LA and Minny were similar offenses in the regular season. I think Minnesota definitely has more "firepower" because we have better shooting overall, and a guy who can puncture the defense. LA's offensive advantage is better decision making from their primary ball handler. LA is better suited to not wasting possessions which gives them a higher floor, but Minnesota's offense has a higher ceiling and bigger guns.

[Sealab2024]

I just don't think Kat is the difference, and Denver is still capable of the going on those 5-6 minute stints of domination.

They'll try to overwhelm the Nuggets, but at the same time, they won't have the fire power LA did.

In what way will the wolves not "have the fire power of LA"? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you haven't watched many wolves games, correct?

I've said it before in this thread, LA and Minny were similar offenses in the regular season. I think Minnesota definitely has more "firepower" because we have better shooting overall, and a guy who can puncture the defense. LA's offensive advantage is better decision making from their primary ball handler. LA is better suited to not wasting possessions which gives them a higher floor, but Minnesota's offense has a higher ceiling and bigger guns.

Show me a single clip of the Lakers running a double high post.

[Exp0sed]

it's been my opinion all season long and all i've seen has just made me more convinced - the Wolves got this

they match up very well with the Nuggets
there are alot of X's and O's in this series, coaching will def be a factor

I feel like some of the semi-open pull up 3's and midrange shots will be pretty open for the Wolves taking. the Nuggets have gambled in the past, on teams not being able to beat them via these shots (PHX, Lakers, Miami etc.) but the Wolves def can

KAT is an elite shooter and ANT is unreal when he gets it going as well, Conley has an excellent shot selection and off the bench the open shots will be there for Naz Reid as well

Nuggets have no answer for ANT and that was clear last season as well and now ANT is on a whole other plain
this series will be his coming out party to a much wider audience etc. over a 7 game series no other team can throw at Jokic what Minny can throw at him. he'll get his obviously but won't be fed enough as the Nuggets are pretty poor in terms of entry or pockets passes to Jokic and the crazy length and agility the Wolves have on the ball and in the passing lanes, won't leave the Nuggets enough room to manouver and they'll make sloppy unforced errors, leading to easy transition buckets

both teams are pretty evenly matched up but there just aren't enough ways for the Nuggets to get easy points in this series, they'll have to work very hard on every bucket and they aren't used to that at all

Wolves in 6