Jokic and the Bill Simmons Pyramid

[HotRocks34]

The Nuggets season appears over and it looks like Jokic will be winning his third MVP tomorrow.

Bill Simmons had Jokic #25 on his pyramid after the Denver title last year.

https://aminoapps.com/c/nba/page/item/bill-simmons-updated-pyramid/wKgr_EQQspIB7mMlg0jGqBDozEwXqNlbl5V

I think a good initial target for Jokic is Moses Malone at #15.

Moses had 3 MVP's, won 1 ring, made 2 Finals and made 4 conference finals. He was on 8 All NBA teams and 2 All Defense teams.

If Jokic wins MVP he'll have 3 MVP's, 1 ring, 1 Final and 2 conference finals. He has been on 6 All NBA teams after announcements are made this year.

Malone's teammates in Houston were good if not great, but his teammates in Philadelphia were great.

Jokic's teammates have not been great.




At his peak, Moses was a tremendous individual player but Jokic is better. Moses did lead the league in PER twice, including his title season when he also led the league in WS48.

Jokic is one of just 6 players in NBA history to have his own advanced stats "era," defined by having at least 4 consecutive years of leading the league in PER, WS48 and BPM.

The other 5 players on the list (some extrapolated) are Mikan, Wilt, Kareem, Jordan and LeBron. All of them except Mikan (45, I think) are in Simmons' Top 8 players ever.




This year, if it ends now, has been a disappointing one for Jokic and Denver. But the beat goes on. Kareem missed the playoffs at ages 27 and 28 after having won 3 MVP's and he actually won his 4th MVP in one of those two years he missed the postseason (1976).

Jokic is 29 now and in his prime. His dominant season and likely MVP will probably move him up Simmons' pyramid but, of course, his final spot on that list won't be known until his career is over.

Denver has a lot to work on this offseason. Opponents have discovered more ways to defend Jokic and it has ended up causing him to defer to his teammates more than he did in the past, especially in big games.

It's up to the Nuggets organization, and Jokic himself, to find new solutions and build the kind of roster that can make opponents pay for focusing so much on the Serbian big.

Jokic is the best player in the league, but that window won't stay open forever.

[NZB2323]

I'd be fine with Jokic at 15.

I'd certainly have Dwayne Wade over Isiah Thomas.

Championships
Wade 3
Thomas 2

All-NBA teams
Wade 7
Thomas 5

All defensive teams
Wade 3
Thomas 0

PER
Wade 23.5
Thomas 18.1

VORP
Wade 62.8
Thomas 41.59

WS
Wade 120.7
Thomas 80.7

Playoff PER
Wade 22.4
Thomas 19.8

Playoff VORP
Wade 12.3
Thomas 8.5

Playoff WS
Wade 21.6
Thomas 12.5

And if we compare playoff runs when they won Finals MVP it isn't very close
Wade 28, 6, and 6, 59.3 TS%, 26.9 PER
Thomas 21, 8, and 6, 56 TS%, 21 PER

Wade was considered the best player in the world after the 2006 Finals. Thomas was never considered the best player in the world. Wade finished top 3 in MVP voting in 2009, something Thomas never did. Wade was top 10 in MVP voting 7 times; Isiah Thomas was top 10 in MVP voting 4 times.

I'd also have Hakeem and Shaq ahead of West and Oscar. And I'd have Ewing over Pippen.

I know Pippen has more championships, but Pippen got to play with Jordan(And Rodman or Horace Grant), and Ewing got to play with John Starks. And we saw what happened when they met and Pippen didn't have Jordan.

GmSc isn't a perfect stat, but it shows that Ewing was clearly better than Pippen in the 1994 series, and he got less help.

Ewing: 18.7
Pippen: 15.6
Grant: 16.2
Armstrong: 12.7
Oakley: 12.1
Starks: 9.8

And that doesn't even take into account Kukoc hitting the game-winning shot while Pippen refused to go into the game.

And I'd have Kareem over Russell.

[Stan]

Hold up, let me bust out my magnifying glass to read that chart.

[ForeverTFC]

Nice write up. I think mid teens is about right. Ultimately, it's really hard to put someone top 10 if they don't at least present as a 2-way player, and the list bears that out excluding Curry at 10 (he should be above Kobe), who deservedly gets a bump with his 4 rings.

[nikster]

Nice write up. I think mid teens is about right. Ultimately, it's really hard to put someone top 10 if they don't at least present as a 2-way player, and the list bears that out excluding Curry at 10 (he should be above Kobe), who deservedly gets a bump with his 4 rings.

Was Magic really any better defensively than Jokic?

[KyRo23]

I only want to bring up the all star argument, because I think that one has some flaws

Why is this the be all end all of help? If you have a great team, but technically not an all star, are you playing with bums? Mo Williams was an injury replacement all star in LeBron's first Cleveland start. If we are just judging based on all star teammates, are we saying the Cavs had a better supporting cast than the Nuggets? It can be argued that Jokic has 2/3 teammates that were better than all of those Cavs teams.

This has been a pain point over the last couple years about "Jokic doesn't even play with any all stars!"

Jamal Murray's career playoff averages are actually kind of nutty - 25/6/5... but he's not an all star. Shouldn't even matter.

Then we need to think about the fact that some players were all stars one year, then joined a team much later. So if Jokic had lets say Al Horford on his team RIGHT NOW. Well he has an all star on his team! What a flawed argument

[ForeverTFC]

I only want to bring up the all star argument, because I think that one has some flaws

Why is this the be all end all of help? If you have a great team, but technically not an all star, are you playing with bums? Mo Williams was an injury replacement all star in LeBron's first Cleveland start. If we are just judging based on all star teammates, are we saying the Cavs had a better supporting cast than the Nuggets? It can be argued that Jokic has 2/3 teammates that were better than all of those Cavs teams.

This has been a pain point over the last couple years about "Jokic doesn't even play with any all stars!"

Jamal Murray's career playoff averages are actually kind of nutty - 25/6/5... but he's not an all star. Shouldn't even matter.

Then we need to think about the fact that some players were all stars one year, then joined a team much later. So if Jokic had lets say Al Horford on his team RIGHT NOW. Well he has an all star on his team! What a flawed argument

I think it matters, and your anecdote on Lebron is well reflected in that chart as he's 5th last in terms of help. I don't necessarily think there is that much to read into Jokic as dead last vs Lebron at 5th last, but there is definitely something to read into Jokic, Lebron and MJ being at the bottom of that list while Magic, Bird, Kobe and Curry are at the top.

[NZB2323]

I only want to bring up the all star argument, because I think that one has some flaws

Why is this the be all end all of help? If you have a great team, but technically not an all star, are you playing with bums? Mo Williams was an injury replacement all star in LeBron's first Cleveland start. If we are just judging based on all star teammates, are we saying the Cavs had a better supporting cast than the Nuggets? It can be argued that Jokic has 2/3 teammates that were better than all of those Cavs teams.

This has been a pain point over the last couple years about "Jokic doesn't even play with any all stars!"

Jamal Murray's career playoff averages are actually kind of nutty - 25/6/5... but he's not an all star. Shouldn't even matter.

Then we need to think about the fact that some players were all stars one year, then joined a team much later. So if Jokic had lets say Al Horford on his team RIGHT NOW. Well he has an all star on his team! What a flawed argument

Sure, but if we look at Jokic’s supporting cast compared to other top 15 player it’s clearly been worse:

Jordan - Pippen/Rodman/Grant
Lebron - Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love, AD
Russell - Cousy/Sam Jones/Havlicek
Kareem - Oscar/Magic/Worthy
Magic - Kareem/Worthy
Bird - McHale/Parish
Duncan - Robinson/Ginobili/Parker/Kawhi
Wilt - West/Baylor/Greer/Walker/Cunningham
Kobe - Shaq and Gasol
Curry - Klay, Dray, and Durant
West - Baylor, Wilt
Oscar - Kareem
Hakeem - Drexler, Barkley, Pippen
Shaq- Penny, Kobe, Wade
Moses Malone - Dr. J/Mo Cheeks/Andrew Tony
Durant - Westbrook, Harden, Curry, Klay, Dray, Irving, CP3, Booker
Jokic - Jamal Murray

Jokic has clearly had the worse supporting cast. The only ones you could argue is Oscar or Hakeem, who didn’t get support until later in their careers. Oscar was past his prime by the time he teamed up with Kareem, and Hakeem got Drexler and Barkley when they were past the primes.

You could do it be all-NBA teams, teammates who have received MVP votes, or teammates who have won Finals MVP, ect. And Murray wouldn’t qualify for them.

Murray also missed the playoffs in 21 and 22, and has not been playing well in the playoffs this year.

[AleksandarN]

Nice write up. I think mid teens is about right. Ultimately, it's really hard to put someone top 10 if they don't at least present as a 2-way player, and the list bears that out excluding Curry at 10 (he should be above Kobe), who deservedly gets a bump with his 4 rings.

Magic was not a two way player fyi

[Genjuro]

Then we need to think about the fact that some players were all stars one year, then joined a team much later. So if Jokic had lets say Al Horford on his team RIGHT NOW. Well he has an all star on his team! What a flawed argument

Those are not being taken into account, only all-stars that made it while playing alongside those MVP players. Indeed Jokic has a previous all-star in DeAndre Jordan playing with him in the Nuggets.

[Cubbies2120]

I only want to bring up the all star argument, because I think that one has some flaws

Why is this the be all end all of help? If you have a great team, but technically not an all star, are you playing with bums? Mo Williams was an injury replacement all star in LeBron's first Cleveland start. If we are just judging based on all star teammates, are we saying the Cavs had a better supporting cast than the Nuggets? It can be argued that Jokic has 2/3 teammates that were better than all of those Cavs teams.

This has been a pain point over the last couple years about "Jokic doesn't even play with any all stars!"

Jamal Murray's career playoff averages are actually kind of nutty - 25/6/5... but he's not an all star. Shouldn't even matter.

Then we need to think about the fact that some players were all stars one year, then joined a team much later. So if Jokic had lets say Al Horford on his team RIGHT NOW. Well he has an all star on his team! What a flawed argument

Sure, but if we look at Jokic’s supporting cast compared to other top 15 player it’s clearly been worse:

Jordan - Pippen/Rodman/Grant
Lebron - Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love, AD
Russell - Cousy/Sam Jones/Havlicek
Kareem - Oscar/Magic/Worthy
Magic - Kareem/Worthy
Bird - McHale/Parish
Duncan - Robinson/Ginobili/Parker/Kawhi
Wilt - West/Baylor/Greer/Walker/Cunningham
Kobe - Shaq and Gasol
Curry - Klay, Dray, and Durant
West - Baylor, Wilt
Oscar - Kareem
Hakeem - Drexler, Barkley, Pippen
Shaq- Penny, Kobe, Wade
Moses Malone - Dr. J/Mo Cheeks/Andrew Tony
Durant - Westbrook, Harden, Curry, Klay, Dray, Irving, CP3, Booker
Jokic - Jamal Murray

Jokic has clearly had the worse supporting cast. The only ones you could argue is Oscar or Hakeem, who didn’t get support until later in their careers. Oscar was past his prime by the time he teamed up with Kareem, and Hakeem got Drexler and Barkley when they were past the primes.

You could do it be all-NBA teams, teammates who have received MVP votes, or teammates who have won Finals MVP, ect. And Murray wouldn’t qualify for them.

Murray also missed the playoffs in 21 and 22, and has not been playing well in the playoffs this year.

This!

[Jimmy Recard]

Has Bill Simmons walked back his comments about KD being better than Shaq and top 9 all time yet?

[NZB2323]

Has Bill Simmons walked back his comments about KD being better than Shaq and top 9 all time yet?

I don’t know if he’s talked about it but Durant is 16th on the updated list.

[HotRocks34]

Hold up, let me bust out my magnifying glass to read that chart.

Sorry about that. Here is a link to the tweet and a bigger version of the pic.

Read on Twitter

[HotRocks34]

I'd be fine with Jokic at 15.

I'd certainly have Dwayne Wade over Isiah Thomas.

Championships
Wade 3
Thomas 2

All-NBA teams
Wade 7
Thomas 5

All defensive teams
Wade 3
Thomas 0

PER
Wade 23.5
Thomas 18.1

VORP
Wade 62.8
Thomas 41.59

WS
Wade 120.7
Thomas 80.7

Playoff PER
Wade 22.4
Thomas 19.8

Playoff VORP
Wade 12.3
Thomas 8.5

Playoff WS
Wade 21.6
Thomas 12.5

And if we compare playoff runs when they won Finals MVP it isn't very close
Wade 28, 6, and 6, 59.3 TS%, 26.9 PER
Thomas 21, 8, and 6, 56 TS%, 21 PER

Wade was considered the best player in the world after the 2006 Finals. Thomas was never considered the best player in the world. Wade finished top 3 in MVP voting in 2009, something Thomas never did. Wade was top 10 in MVP voting 7 times; Isiah Thomas was top 10 in MVP voting 4 times.

I'd also have Hakeem and Shaq ahead of West and Oscar. And I'd have Ewing over Pippen.

I know Pippen has more championships, but Pippen got to play with Jordan(And Rodman or Horace Grant), and Ewing got to play with John Starks. And we saw what happened when they met and Pippen didn't have Jordan.

GmSc isn't a perfect stat, but it shows that Ewing was clearly better than Pippen in the 1994 series, and he got less help.

Ewing: 18.7
Pippen: 15.6
Grant: 16.2
Armstrong: 12.7
Oakley: 12.1
Starks: 9.8

And that doesn't even take into account Kukoc hitting the game-winning shot while Pippen refused to go into the game.

And I'd have Kareem over Russell.

Excellent write up and I am with you on everything.

Wade > Isaiah
Hakeem, Shaq > Oscar, West
Kareem > Russell
Ewing > Pippen


Isaiah was a bad dude but yeah Wade is better.

I know that the pyramid may be more about careers than talent, but talent matters.

Simmons is a Boston homer so that explains Russell. Even though Bill is of course a great player. But Kareem was a great two way player, at least early in his career.

I didn't see West or Oscar play and I have huge respect for them. But Peak Hakeem and MDE Shaq were two of the most dominant two way forces in league history. If Simmons wants to argue careers there, ok. Maybe.

Ewing without a doubt was a better player than Pippen. Sure one could argue for Pippen 's career but he played with MJ and Ewing didn't.

[HotRocks34]

Nice write up. I think mid teens is about right. Ultimately, it's really hard to put someone top 10 if they don't at least present as a 2-way player, and the list bears that out excluding Curry at 10 (he should be above Kobe), who deservedly gets a bump with his 4 rings.

Thanks.

To be fair, Russell was not great on offense and neither Magic nor Bird were the best defenders, despite Bird I think making a couple of All Defense teams.

Jokic has work to do. No doubt about that.

[HotRocks34]

Nice write up. I think mid teens is about right. Ultimately, it's really hard to put someone top 10 if they don't at least present as a 2-way player, and the list bears that out excluding Curry at 10 (he should be above Kobe), who deservedly gets a bump with his 4 rings.

Was Magic really any better defensively than Jokic?

No. Just based on defensive rebounding alone.

Jokic isn't at Magic's because his career isn't good enough yet.

As a player that's a different story.

Both players are transcendent talents. Magic is a freak. All respect.

[HotRocks34]

I only want to bring up the all star argument, because I think that one has some flaws

Fair. I thought doing All NBA was a better comparison.

EDIT: I think I misunderstood what you were saying. My bad.

Help matters because it's a team game. MJ isn't winning without Pippen and Grant/Rodman.

Murray is talented but very flawed. He can be great but when he's bad he can sink you. He's hurt now but hopefully he can grow from this rough playoffs. Taking better care of his body may help him prevent injuries.

[Impuniti]

His never-an-allstar teammate averaged 33PPG on 65% TS in a conference finals last postseason on route to a ring. Selective statistics like this sound incredibly empty when you add any semblance of context to it.

[Jasen777]

Jokic presumably has several prime years left. Too early to tank him really.