Why Rudy Gobert deserved DPOY over Wemby

[FrodoBaggins]

I'll keep my argument simple.

1) Played more total games and minutes played.
2) Played more "high-leverage" games and minutes with stakes involved. Less garbage time/facing second units.

DPOY, like MVP and ROY, are accumulative awards, not rate/per-game ones. It's about who was most valuable, not who's the best. How many minutes and games you play matters, and I'm not talking about the 65-game requirement either. You cannot provide value when you're not on the court. At most, you could provide great leadership and culture but the other players are the ones actually playing.

And the advanced one-number metric statistics are all in favor of Rudy. Even EPM if you look at Defensive Estimated Wins (D-EW), which is what we should be doing because it accounts for minutes played. Simply divide D-EPM by EPM and then multiply it with EW. Doing it for the other one-number metrics is pointless because Rudy's per-100 impact was higher while also playing way more minutes.

Here's how the numbers come out:

D-DRIP: Rudy +3.3 (1st) (2587 minutes played); Wemby +2.7 (2nd) (2101 minutes played)
D-LEBRON: +3.28 (1st) (1555 minutes played); Wemby +2.5 (3rd) (1201 minutes played)

Wemby 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 7.71 D-EW
Rudy 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 8.38 D-EW

And that about lines up with how I feel about the DPOY result. If Wemby didn't have that slow start playing PF for the first quarter of the season he probably would've won. Another 10 games maintaining his play and I would've had him as my DPOY.

[naabzor]

So this is how awards are given these days? Calculating random formulas and seeing the best number?

[brutalitops]

Wemby wasn't even the best defensive rookie center till after all star weekend.

It's not "more minutes and more high stake games" it's simply hes 18 and was getting slaughtered at PF but some great highlights kept him in the conversation. He was a way different player after all star, but we going to look at the guy who got isolated and Embiid went at for 70 with ease.

He vastly Improved post all star, where the spurs started being a bit more disciplined and funneled guys into wemby to allow his length to disrupt guys, but he's not as good of a defender as Bam, Davis, Gobet yet.

Your reasoning sucks and it doesn't deserve it's own thread.
Please leave out this last line in the future, it's a personal attack and completely unnecessary.
- ccs

[tsherkin]

it's simply hes 18

He's 20, not 18.

[SNPA]

So this is how awards are given these days? Calculating random formulas and seeing the best number?

I feel like you’re underestimating the gap in D-DRIP.

It’s all good Rudy got his last one. The award is on lockdown going forward. A heathy VW wins 6-8 of the next 10.

[FrodoBaggins]

So this is how awards are given these days? Calculating random formulas and seeing the best number?

As long as people continue to use box score statistics, player tracking data, and raw unadjusted play-by-play data as part of their arguments, I'll continue to consider one-number metrics. EPM, DRIP, LEBRON, and DARKO at least try to contextualize these numbers.

[WentzerWuver]

I'll keep my argument simple.

1) Played more total games and minutes played.
2) Played more "high-leverage" games and minutes with stakes involved. Less garbage time/facing second units.

DPOY, like MVP and ROY, are accumulative awards, not rate/per-game ones. It's about who was most valuable, not who's the best. How many minutes and games you play matters, and I'm not talking about the 65-game requirement either. You cannot provide value when you're not on the court. At most, you could provide great leadership and culture but the other players are the ones actually playing.

And the advanced one-number metric statistics are all in favor of Rudy. Even EPM if you look at Defensive Estimated Wins (D-EW), which is what we should be doing because it accounts for minutes played. Simply divide D-EPM by EPM and then multiply it with EW. Doing it for the other one-number metrics is pointless because Rudy's per-100 impact was higher while also playing way more minutes.

Here's how the numbers come out:

D-DRIP: Rudy +3.3 (1st) (2587 minutes played); Wemby +2.7 (2nd) (2101 minutes played)
D-LEBRON: +3.28 (1st) (1555 minutes played); Wemby +2.5 (3rd) (1201 minutes played)

Wemby 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 7.71 D-EW
Rudy 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 8.38 D-EW

And that about lines up with how I feel about the DPOY result. If Wemby didn't have that slow start playing PF for the first quarter of the season he probably would've won. Another 10 games maintaining his play and I would've had him as my DPOY.

Mobley should have won imo. He is unstoppable on defense with his 5 blocks for game average.

[Ritzo]

Historically, they don't give it to players on a bad team, this is Gobert's year and he deserves it. I know Wemby will win more than 5 of those, no need to rush.

[iLLmatic860]

I think he’s the heart of Minnys defense. So well deserved

[kingr]

Wemby's time will come and he will win it multiple times if he stays healthy.

[Chokic]

Wemby was no question the best defensive player this season..this just a formality of not rewarding a rookie so early over a vet.

[brackdan70]

I'll keep my argument simple.

1) Played more total games and minutes played.
2) Played more "high-leverage" games and minutes with stakes involved. Less garbage time/facing second units.

DPOY, like MVP and ROY, are accumulative awards, not rate/per-game ones. It's about who was most valuable, not who's the best. How many minutes and games you play matters, and I'm not talking about the 65-game requirement either. You cannot provide value when you're not on the court. At most, you could provide great leadership and culture but the other players are the ones actually playing.

And the advanced one-number metric statistics are all in favor of Rudy. Even EPM if you look at Defensive Estimated Wins (D-EW), which is what we should be doing because it accounts for minutes played. Simply divide D-EPM by EPM and then multiply it with EW. Doing it for the other one-number metrics is pointless because Rudy's per-100 impact was higher while also playing way more minutes.

Here's how the numbers come out:

D-DRIP: Rudy +3.3 (1st) (2587 minutes played); Wemby +2.7 (2nd) (2101 minutes played)
D-LEBRON: +3.28 (1st) (1555 minutes played); Wemby +2.5 (3rd) (1201 minutes played)

Wemby 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 7.71 D-EW
Rudy 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 8.38 D-EW

And that about lines up with how I feel about the DPOY result. If Wemby didn't have that slow start playing PF for the first quarter of the season he probably would've won. Another 10 games maintaining his play and I would've had him as my DPOY.

Mobley should have won imo. He is unstoppable on defense with his 5 blocks for game average.

What? Evan Mobley? I don’t see 5 blocks per game. He only played 50 games also.

[payton2kemp]

I'll keep my argument simple.

1) Played more total games and minutes played.
2) Played more "high-leverage" games and minutes with stakes involved. Less garbage time/facing second units.

DPOY, like MVP and ROY, are accumulative awards, not rate/per-game ones. It's about who was most valuable, not who's the best. How many minutes and games you play matters, and I'm not talking about the 65-game requirement either. You cannot provide value when you're not on the court. At most, you could provide great leadership and culture but the other players are the ones actually playing.

And the advanced one-number metric statistics are all in favor of Rudy. Even EPM if you look at Defensive Estimated Wins (D-EW), which is what we should be doing because it accounts for minutes played. Simply divide D-EPM by EPM and then multiply it with EW. Doing it for the other one-number metrics is pointless because Rudy's per-100 impact was higher while also playing way more minutes.

Here's how the numbers come out:

D-DRIP: Rudy +3.3 (1st) (2587 minutes played); Wemby +2.7 (2nd) (2101 minutes played)
D-LEBRON: +3.28 (1st) (1555 minutes played); Wemby +2.5 (3rd) (1201 minutes played)

Wemby 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 7.71 D-EW
Rudy 2024 Defensive Estimated Wins: 8.38 D-EW

And that about lines up with how I feel about the DPOY result. If Wemby didn't have that slow start playing PF for the first quarter of the season he probably would've won. Another 10 games maintaining his play and I would've had him as my DPOY.

Team record. One is a bottom 5 team and other had one of the best records. Same reason Wemby wouldn't get MVP even if he put up the best stats in the league but if the team is in the lottery you're not getting the award.

[Rust_Cohle]

Even without Gobert, the Timberwolves shut down the nuggets. No problem with Gobert getting it but he has far more defensive help than wemby

[Sakkreth]

Because Wemby is below average defender.

[dhsilv2]

Are there people debating this?

[Whateva]

For me a DPOY needs to play in a good defensive team, not in a bottom team, I think this should be quite obvious.

[cupcakesnake]

Wemby was no question the best defensive player this season..this just a formality of not rewarding a rookie so early over a vet.

I think there's actually some pretty good reasons not to give the award to a rookie.

We don't know Wemby's game yet. A rookie season is a learning process for the player (we saw Wemby transform as the year progressed) and for the people watching. We know Wemby is a never-before-seen combination of length and mobility and we've seen first hand how destructively game changing that is. We don't know more than that though, and the context for his defensive performance was 71 relatively meaningless games where winning wasn't the most important thing.

It's legitimately difficult to compare that to Rudy and Bam, who were playing in high-leverage games basically every night and what they were doing was part of an attempt to win a championship.

We're going to learn a ton more about Wemby in the coming years. We'll discover the full extent of his strengths, and uncover some weaknesses as we watch him succeed and fail against increasingly more important competition. Rudy and Bam... we know super well. We've seen them succeed and fail and endure hype and criticism. We're making an informed decision when we vote for Rudy or Bam, but Wemby is still an unknown quality.

A vote for Wemby is still sort of a guess (and probably a correct guess, haha) that what he's doing is the most defensively impactful thing in the NBA. Rudy we know so well. We've seen him captain top 5 defenses (and better) defenses in different situations. It's inherently a more informed choice. It would be one thing if Wemby was blowing him out of the water in the bigger statistical picture, but just the fact that you can make a statistical case for either is enough for me to want to wait until Wemby is playing in meaningful games to give him a major award for his work.

[Patches Perry]

Wemby is going to win it for the next 10 seasons straight lol, let Gobert have his redemption moment.

[OdomFan]

Wemby needs more time to get in whatever top level shape he'll get in as his career progresses. Once he reaches that, and his basketball training progresses. I see him winning DPOY many times over the next 5-7 years or more as long as he avoids serious injuries.