Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery?

Moderators: infinite11285, Domejandro, Harry Garris, ken6199, Dirk, bisme37, KingDavid, zimpy27, bwgood77, cupcakesnake

Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Lottery?

Yes
32
22%
No
111
78%
 
Total votes: 143

ogmagicfan
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,227
And1: 1,770
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#1 » by ogmagicfan » Mon May 13, 2024 3:50 am

I'm basing this solely off of the Pistons being screwed into the 5th pick again for the 3rd straight year

The worst team in the NBA having the highest odds for the 5th pick is kinda crazy

Maybe the NBA can reach a compromise btwn what it was prior to the change and the way its distributed now.
User avatar
Domejandro
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Posts: 18,928
And1: 27,977
Joined: Jul 29, 2014
Location: San Diego, California

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Lottery? 

Post#2 » by Domejandro » Mon May 13, 2024 3:52 am

I had no problem with the original Lottery odds, but I'm also fine with this. It sucks BIG time for Detroit fans, but statistically, the worst team has a ~48% chance of ending up as the fifth pick. That's just how the math works out.
ogmagicfan
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,227
And1: 1,770
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Lottery? 

Post#3 » by ogmagicfan » Mon May 13, 2024 3:58 am

Domejandro wrote:I had no problem with the original Lottery odds, but I'm also fine with this. It sucks BIG time for Detroit fans, but statistically, the worst team has a ~48% chance of ending up as the fifth pick. That's just how the math works out.


I didn't have a problem with the previous distribution either, and it hasnt really stopped teams from tanking towards the end of the season

If anything, I believe the play-in has discouraged tanking more than the changing of the NBA Lottery odds being changed
payton2kemp
Starter
Posts: 2,261
And1: 4,267
Joined: Dec 15, 2014
Location: I can't tell you. I'm an investigator.
   

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#4 » by payton2kemp » Mon May 13, 2024 4:02 am

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.
User avatar
vege
RealGM
Posts: 20,287
And1: 4,330
Joined: Jul 18, 2008
Location: The Detroit Sad Boys era

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#5 » by vege » Mon May 13, 2024 4:12 am

ogmagicfan wrote:I'm basing this solely off of the Pistons being screwed into the 5th pick again for the 3rd straight year

The worst team in the NBA having the highest odds for the 5th pick is kinda crazy

Maybe the NBA can reach a compromise btwn what it was prior to the change and the way its distributed now.


I don't think tanking should be rewarded. Detroit should've lost their pick because of the product they have been putting on the floor.

The draft odds change is one of the best things they did in the NBA. Intentionally putting a putrid product on the floor should never be rewarded.

What Detroit have been doing the past 4 years is embarrassing, and it's making the NBA worse. The league should do something.
ogmagicfan
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,227
And1: 1,770
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#6 » by ogmagicfan » Mon May 13, 2024 4:12 am

payton2kemp wrote:No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.


Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?
User avatar
NyKnicks1714
RealGM
Posts: 24,666
And1: 25,134
Joined: Nov 20, 2001
   

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#7 » by NyKnicks1714 » Mon May 13, 2024 4:39 am

vege wrote:
ogmagicfan wrote:I'm basing this solely off of the Pistons being screwed into the 5th pick again for the 3rd straight year

The worst team in the NBA having the highest odds for the 5th pick is kinda crazy

Maybe the NBA can reach a compromise btwn what it was prior to the change and the way its distributed now.


I don't think tanking should be rewarded. Detroit should've lost their pick because of the product they have been putting on the floor.

The draft odds change is one of the best things they did in the NBA. Intentionally putting a putrid product on the floor should never be rewarded.

What Detroit have been doing the past 4 years is embarrassing, and it's making the NBA worse. The league should do something.


A little off topic, but what do you want Detroit to do? They're probably in the lowest tier of free agent destinations, and it doesn't make sense right now to trade a bunch of picks for an All-star. Their only option is to build through the draft, and they've done okay. Not great but not awful. Hayes was a bust but beyond that they haven't made any big mistakes.

The colossal advantage teams like the Heat, Lakers, and Clippers have over a team like Detroit solely based on location flat out sucks. Cleveland struck gold with LeBron and Milwaukee struck gold with Giannis. Detroit will need to get lucky with a player like that who stays beyond their rookie deal.

The fairest thing would be to give undesirable FA destinations some kind of leg-up when it comes to draft positioning, but obviously that doesn't work in reality for a number of reasons.
Johnny Fontane
Head Coach
Posts: 7,025
And1: 12,063
Joined: Jun 09, 2018

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#8 » by Johnny Fontane » Mon May 13, 2024 4:43 am

Just say yes to relegation
User avatar
Chuck Everett
RealGM
Posts: 13,684
And1: 13,674
Joined: May 28, 2004
Location: Los Angeles
   

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#9 » by Chuck Everett » Mon May 13, 2024 4:46 am

Detroit absorbing Joe Harris' contract (when he was finished) was dumb as hell. That was 20 million of dead money. The fans need to protest until Gores clean house of the front office. The lottery sucks for sure, but over the years the organization has passed on so much talent (Tyrese Haliburton, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Williams to name a few).
"Kill 'em with Grindness."
User avatar
baldur
RealGM
Posts: 10,291
And1: 12,609
Joined: Jul 12, 2015
Location: Melbourne, Australia
     

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#10 » by baldur » Mon May 13, 2024 4:47 am

No. Maybe don't include eliminated play in teams in the lottery.
advent11
Junior
Posts: 284
And1: 378
Joined: Nov 12, 2018

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#11 » by advent11 » Mon May 13, 2024 4:48 am

Yes. They should go back to the original odds.
zero rings
Pro Prospect
Posts: 884
And1: 1,536
Joined: Aug 10, 2023

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#12 » by zero rings » Mon May 13, 2024 4:52 am

They probably would have whiffed on the #1 pick anyways. When was the last time Detroit actually made a great draft pick? They've been picking in the lottery for the better part of two decades, and I can't recall a single home run pick. Just a few solid role players and a bunch of busts.
ogmagicfan
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,227
And1: 1,770
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#13 » by ogmagicfan » Mon May 13, 2024 4:54 am

NyKnicks1714 wrote:
vege wrote:
ogmagicfan wrote:I'm basing this solely off of the Pistons being screwed into the 5th pick again for the 3rd straight year

The worst team in the NBA having the highest odds for the 5th pick is kinda crazy

Maybe the NBA can reach a compromise btwn what it was prior to the change and the way its distributed now.


I don't think tanking should be rewarded. Detroit should've lost their pick because of the product they have been putting on the floor.

The draft odds change is one of the best things they did in the NBA. Intentionally putting a putrid product on the floor should never be rewarded.

What Detroit have been doing the past 4 years is embarrassing, and it's making the NBA worse. The league should do something.


A little off topic, but what do you want Detroit to do? They're probably in the lowest tier of free agent destinations, and it doesn't make sense right now to trade a bunch of picks for an All-star. Their only option is to build through the draft, and they've done okay. Not great but not awful. Hayes was a bust but beyond that they haven't made any big mistakes.

The colossal advantage teams like the Heat, Lakers, and Clippers have over a team like Detroit solely based on location flat out sucks. Cleveland struck gold with LeBron and Milwaukee struck gold with Giannis. Detroit will need to get lucky with a player like that who stays beyond their rookie deal.

The fairest thing would be to give undesirable FA destinations some kind of leg-up when it comes to draft positioning, but obviously that doesn't work in reality for a number of reasons.


This. The new draft lottery order hurts more for the smaller markets who arent trade/FA destinations

The Pistons werent even tanking this year, they were honestly trying to get some wins this yr, they tanked towards the end but what do you expect from a team that has sucked for as long as they have in a city like Detroit?

Their front office and overall team culture is awful, but damn it sucks to see any team suffer like they have since they traded Billups to the Nuggets
ogmagicfan
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,227
And1: 1,770
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#14 » by ogmagicfan » Mon May 13, 2024 4:56 am

baldur wrote:No. Maybe don't include eliminated play in teams in the lottery.


This would hurt the NBA's efforts to discourage tanking, teams would be less incentivized to go for Play-In spots

Play-In has discouraged tanking as much if not more than the new lotto odds
User avatar
ItsDanger
RealGM
Posts: 25,190
And1: 22,416
Joined: Nov 01, 2008

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#15 » by ItsDanger » Mon May 13, 2024 4:59 am

The current structure is defeating the original intent of the draft. As example, no way two 46 win teams should have a chance at 1st overall.

Change it.
Organization can be defined as an organized body of people with a particular purpose. Not random.
jkvonny
Head Coach
Posts: 6,135
And1: 5,877
Joined: Jun 04, 2021
       

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#16 » by jkvonny » Mon May 13, 2024 5:00 am

Johnny Fontane wrote:Just say yes to relegation

This is the NBA (American).

Not European soccer.
User avatar
NyKnicks1714
RealGM
Posts: 24,666
And1: 25,134
Joined: Nov 20, 2001
   

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#17 » by NyKnicks1714 » Mon May 13, 2024 5:02 am

ogmagicfan wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
vege wrote:
I don't think tanking should be rewarded. Detroit should've lost their pick because of the product they have been putting on the floor.

The draft odds change is one of the best things they did in the NBA. Intentionally putting a putrid product on the floor should never be rewarded.

What Detroit have been doing the past 4 years is embarrassing, and it's making the NBA worse. The league should do something.


A little off topic, but what do you want Detroit to do? They're probably in the lowest tier of free agent destinations, and it doesn't make sense right now to trade a bunch of picks for an All-star. Their only option is to build through the draft, and they've done okay. Not great but not awful. Hayes was a bust but beyond that they haven't made any big mistakes.

The colossal advantage teams like the Heat, Lakers, and Clippers have over a team like Detroit solely based on location flat out sucks. Cleveland struck gold with LeBron and Milwaukee struck gold with Giannis. Detroit will need to get lucky with a player like that who stays beyond their rookie deal.

The fairest thing would be to give undesirable FA destinations some kind of leg-up when it comes to draft positioning, but obviously that doesn't work in reality for a number of reasons.


This. The new draft lottery order hurts more for the smaller markets who arent trade/FA destinations

The Pistons werent even tanking this year, they were honestly trying to get some wins this yr, they tanked towards the end but what do you expect from a team that has sucked for as long as they have in a city like Detroit?

Their front office and overall team culture is awful, but damn it sucks to see any team suffer like they have since they traded Billups to the Nuggets


Well no, practically speaking it doesn't inherently hurt a smaller market team more than it does a big market team. My post was mostly off-topic. I'm fine with the current weighting and I think the biggest advantage to comes in drafts where the best player is a generational talent. Give more teams a shot at him.
ogmagicfan
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,227
And1: 1,770
Joined: Mar 30, 2014
     

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#18 » by ogmagicfan » Mon May 13, 2024 5:04 am

NyKnicks1714 wrote:
ogmagicfan wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
A little off topic, but what do you want Detroit to do? They're probably in the lowest tier of free agent destinations, and it doesn't make sense right now to trade a bunch of picks for an All-star. Their only option is to build through the draft, and they've done okay. Not great but not awful. Hayes was a bust but beyond that they haven't made any big mistakes.

The colossal advantage teams like the Heat, Lakers, and Clippers have over a team like Detroit solely based on location flat out sucks. Cleveland struck gold with LeBron and Milwaukee struck gold with Giannis. Detroit will need to get lucky with a player like that who stays beyond their rookie deal.

The fairest thing would be to give undesirable FA destinations some kind of leg-up when it comes to draft positioning, but obviously that doesn't work in reality for a number of reasons.


This. The new draft lottery order hurts more for the smaller markets who arent trade/FA destinations

The Pistons werent even tanking this year, they were honestly trying to get some wins this yr, they tanked towards the end but what do you expect from a team that has sucked for as long as they have in a city like Detroit?

Their front office and overall team culture is awful, but damn it sucks to see any team suffer like they have since they traded Billups to the Nuggets


Well no, practically speaking it doesn't inherently hurt a smaller market team more than it does a big market team. My post was mostly off-topic. I'm fine with the current weighting and I think the biggest advantage to comes in drafts where the best player is a generational talent. Give more teams a shot at him.


It does hurt them more, because they are more dependent on the draft than a big market who can acquire players in FA/trades more easily because theyre more attractive destinations
User avatar
Effigy
RealGM
Posts: 13,633
And1: 12,127
Joined: Nov 27, 2001
     

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#19 » by Effigy » Mon May 13, 2024 5:04 am

Blazer fan here. No they should not.
jkvonny
Head Coach
Posts: 6,135
And1: 5,877
Joined: Jun 04, 2021
       

Re: Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery? 

Post#20 » by jkvonny » Mon May 13, 2024 5:05 am

NyKnicks1714 wrote:
vege wrote:
ogmagicfan wrote:I'm basing this solely off of the Pistons being screwed into the 5th pick again for the 3rd straight year

The worst team in the NBA having the highest odds for the 5th pick is kinda crazy

Maybe the NBA can reach a compromise btwn what it was prior to the change and the way its distributed now.


I don't think tanking should be rewarded. Detroit should've lost their pick because of the product they have been putting on the floor.

The draft odds change is one of the best things they did in the NBA. Intentionally putting a putrid product on the floor should never be rewarded.

What Detroit have been doing the past 4 years is embarrassing, and it's making the NBA worse. The league should do something.


A little off topic, but what do you want Detroit to do? They're probably in the lowest tier of free agent destinations, and it doesn't make sense right now to trade a bunch of picks for an All-star. Their only option is to build through the draft, and they've done okay. Not great but not awful. Hayes was a bust but beyond that they haven't made any big mistakes.

The colossal advantage teams like the Heat, Lakers, and Clippers have over a team like Detroit solely based on location flat out sucks. Cleveland struck gold with LeBron and Milwaukee struck gold with Giannis. Detroit will need to get lucky with a player like that who stays beyond their rookie deal.

The fairest thing would be to give undesirable FA destinations some kind of leg-up when it comes to draft positioning, but obviously that doesn't work in reality for a number of reasons.

Denver, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Cleveland (post LeBron), Sacramento, New Orleans (Zion always hurt), Indiana, Orlando, Memphis, Portland (years), Utah, etc are all just like Detroit and have done well over the years and recent years.

Detroit is not well run in the FO. And they have had success in the past ('80s, parts of the '90s and '00s). NBA championships.

Return to The General Board