Can it be said that Portland messed up taking Oden now?

[Malinhion]

One guy has played in more than twice as many NBA games as the other. Isn't this a little ridiculous?

[D-31]

Two posts in this thread really stuck out to me - for obvious reasons...

Saying Durant has done everything right implies that Durant has done nothing and is the first perfect basketball player in NBA.

The truth of the matter is that Durant is an incomplete player who hasn't shown any kind of ability at all to win games.

Two posts in this thread really stuck out to me - for obvious reasons...

It's not hate it's the truth. His team plays better without him. Durant has definitely not done everything right, if he did, he'd have a championship. You should at least be able to say a "great" player can keep his team in the playoff race after the first month of the season. Some Durant can't say after 2 seasons.

Durant is comparable to career loser George Gervin, but not as good.

but how many wins will his team get?
idc if Durant puts up 40/15/5, the guys team who wins more games is the better player

Its hard to imagine that people actually believe the things they post, isn't it?

How the strength of a 15 man roster factors into which player is better, I will never understand.

Durant had Jeff Green and 40% shooting rookie Russell Westbrook on his team. Roy has Aldridge, Outlaw, Fernandez and Blake scoring in double digits. The Blazers minus Roy would win 9 out of 10 games vs. the Thunder minus Durant. How does that proven anything about Roy or Durant?

Durant's going to be a superstar. Roy will be a perennial all-star. Its like comparing KG and Chris Webber. One's a great player and an all-star. But KG just has something more, even when he was stuck on those Wolves teams and Webber's Kings had more playoff success. Same with Durant.

What's funny is KG was bashed for being to passive and passing too much. And guys here are bashing Durant for shooting too much when his supporting cast posted the worst FG% in the league. A player is never deemed good enough unless they have a Gasol or Shard/Hedo next to them. But how is it that players fault that management hasn't acquired a 2nd star to put next to them? I will never no, but RealGMers think it is Durant's fault the Sonics traded Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis.

I never said that Durant had to win as many games at Portland to be considered a better player than Oden/Roy. All Durant has to show is that he's not a career loser by actually leading his team to wins instead of his team playing better without him. Roy (and Oden) are better than Durant because they can actually defend and make teammates better while Durant has an overall negative impact on his team.

So no the comparison to KG and Webber is not comparable. A better comparison would be Shaq to Ricky Davis, or Michael Jordan to Mike James. KG got bashed and rightly so for passing up big shots and playing passively when in matters. Durant gets criticized for not being a complete NBA player, a one dimensional players who doesn't contribute anything to his teams success.

[Flash3]

Even if Oden never plays another game, the Blazers made the right decision. You always choose the potentially dominant center over the potentially dominant small forward.

Yes, agreed. But, the question being posed is "now." And, right now Portland has messed up in picking Oden over Durant because Durant is the superior player (overall).

But, big men do take more than a year or two to reach their max potential and Oden has shown glimpses of it. So, the jury is still out.

[Ortho Stice]

Even if Oden never plays another game, the Blazers made the right decision. You always choose the potentially dominant center over the potentially dominant small forward.

Yes, agreed. But, the question being posed is "now." And, right now Portland has messed up in picking Oden over Durant because Durant is the superior player (overall).

But, big men do take more than a year or two to reach their max potential and Oden has shown glimpses of it. So, the jury is still out.

Even if Durant ends up having a significantly better career, the Blazers made the rational draft choice, and therefore they didn't mess up the pick. If they made an uninformed and irrational selection, they would've messed up. How Durant and Oden perform in the NBA is independent of whether or not they messed up their selection or not.

[Flash3]

Even if Oden never plays another game, the Blazers made the right decision. You always choose the potentially dominant center over the potentially dominant small forward.

Yes, agreed. But, the question being posed is "now." And, right now Portland has messed up in picking Oden over Durant because Durant is the superior player (overall).

But, big men do take more than a year or two to reach their max potential and Oden has shown glimpses of it. So, the jury is still out.

Even if Durant ends up having a significantly better career, the Blazers made the rational draft choice, and therefore they didn't mess up the pick. If they made an uninformed and irrational selection, they would've messed up. How Durant and Oden perform in the NBA is independent of whether or not they messed up their selection or not.

Maybe, maybe not. But, Portland has yet to get its (fair) break for passing up on MJ. If the public opinion is that they failed in picking the "right" player, that will always prevail.

The way the league is structured over the past few season, if you have 2-3 great players (1st option-esque players) and a decent cast of role players, you will always be in the race for a title. See: SA, Miami, LAL, Boston most recently. As it stand right now, Portland has 1 legit #1 option, who is their 2nd? Durant would've no doubt flled that role very well, and a roundout of the roster would've been simpler with the extra assets they had piled up/compiled over the years.

[Tirion]

Portland messed up big time. Two main reasons:

1) Durant clearly is a better individual player with a higher ceiling. Nothing to argue about here.

2) Durant turned out to be more NBA-ready right from the bat then Oden. Look, Oden has potential, but he's a project right now. All that talk that he could have been a great defensive bigman right from the start turned out to be just that. Talk. Oden's a foul machine, he loses focus easily, makes silly mistakes, etc. Still he clearly has potential. But to realize that potential he need longer leash, he needs to make his mistakes, take a few lumps here and there at the expence of the team. And that's something that a play-off caliber team like Portland, who wants to win now, can not afford. There are certain expectations on players, on coaches, on frontoffice and nobody is going to babysit Greg. He makes one mistake, Przybilla is there to take his place. Something similar happened with Jermaine O'neal, a young promising player on a "win now" team. Durant on the other hand was a bonafide NBA scorer even in his rookie year, when he was basically the skinniest player in the league. Now he's one of the top players at his position already and will be second only to LeBron as early as next season. How much time will it take Oden to reach even top-10 level at his position at this pace? Two years? Three? And that's the best case scenario.

[ropjhk]

Part of this debate seems motivated by a belief that Oden has had little positive impact on the Blazers while Durant's impact on OKC has been huge.

Durant's impact on OKC has been such that the team went from a 32 win season to a 20 win season in his first year. And in the following season, supposedly Durant's breakout season, OKC climbed all the way up to 23 wins from 20. A 3 win increase, and still 9 less then before he arrived.

Now, I know it's not all on Durant that OKC still sucked last season, but if he's such a phenomenal talent, with, as one poster put it "heart and the will to win", you'd expect more then a 3 win improvement. Brandon Roy took a 21 win team and led them to successive seasons of 32, 41, and 54 wins. Durant, with the mantle of RealGM greatness newly bestowed, ought to be able in 2 seasons to match what Roy did in 1, but apparently not.

On the other hand, in the know-little world of RealGM, Oden's impact on the Blazers is either ignored or dismissed:

In 2007/08, Portland ranked in the bottom half of the league in every rebounding category. IIRC, they were about 20th in overall rebounding pecentage, and about 18th in defensive rebounding rate and 23rd in offensive rebounding rate.

Contrast that to Oden's first season: Portland led the NBA in both overall rebounding percentage and offensive rebounding percentage. And they were 5th in defensive rebounding rate. Oden was the only roster addition to affect that. Rudy fernandez certainly didn't strengthen Portland's rebounding numbers. This was all due to Oden.

And that is a huge impact to portland's fortunes. To go from a weak rebounding team to the best rebounding team is a simple testament to what Oden will bring to the floor for the Blazers and it's something that is ignored here all the time...like in this thread

So much text and yet you failed to mention how Seattle lost Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen before durant arrived. Were you just ignorant of that fact or were you deliberately trying to mislead readers about the effectiveness of Durant with his team?

[Malinhion]

2) Durant turned out to be more NBA-ready right from the bat then Oden. Look, Oden has potential, but he's a project right now. All that talk that he could have been a great defensive bigman right from the start turned out to be just that. Talk. Oden's a foul machine, he loses focus easily, makes silly mistakes, etc. Still he clearly has potential. But to realize that potential he need longer leash, he needs to make his mistakes, take a few lumps here and there at the expence of the team. And that's something that a play-off caliber team like Portland, who wants to win now, can not afford. There are certain expectations on players, on coaches, on frontoffice and nobody is going to babysit Greg. He makes one mistake, Przybilla is there to take his place. Something similar happened with Jermaine O'neal, a young promising player on a "win now" team. Durant on the other hand was a bonafide NBA scorer even in his rookie year, when he was basically the skinniest player in the league. Now he's one of the top players at his position already and will be second only to LeBron as early as next season. How much time will it take Oden to reach even top-10 level at his position at this pace? Two years? Three? And that's the best case scenario.

Posts like this just go to show why there's even a discussion like this. Most everyone knows that Oden hasn't had enough time to show what he's got. However, in the mean time, Durant has become crazy overrated. And I feel like this has just happened during the offseason, which is funny. There is no way on earth that Kevin Durant will even come close to being the second best player in the league next season, even if he averages 30 points.

[Deus]

Durant isn't crazy over-rated. The guy averages 25 a game on 48% shooting. That's a great SF.

On Oden, when I first heard the hype about him I thought he'd become the next great center and average 20 points and 14 rebounds and 3 blocks a game. Now seeing him play without injury, I think he'll become a 12 point, 12 rebound, 2 block player. Which means I don't think he'll ever become a superstar like he was first hyped. So yes, Portland made the wrong pick.

[NO-KG-AI]

What's funny is, at this time last year, Kevin Durant was a 6'10 Jamal Crawford on this board, and would take 3-4 years to fill out his frame and learn how to play the right way.

Funny how stupid people look when they go off a rookie season with a lot of factors against a player huh?

Oden averaged 14.8 points per 36 on the slowest paced team in the league(didnt know that did you?) and his ceiling is 12 points per game. Yea, that makes perfect sense.

[Wizenheimer]

Part of this debate seems motivated by a belief that Oden has had little positive impact on the Blazers while Durant's impact on OKC has been huge.

Durant's impact on OKC has been such that the team went from a 32 win season to a 20 win season in his first year. And in the following season, supposedly Durant's breakout season, OKC climbed all the way up to 23 wins from 20. A 3 win increase, and still 9 less then before he arrived.

Now, I know it's not all on Durant that OKC still sucked last season, but if he's such a phenomenal talent, with, as one poster put it "heart and the will to win", you'd expect more then a 3 win improvement. Brandon Roy took a 21 win team and led them to successive seasons of 32, 41, and 54 wins. Durant, with the mantle of RealGM greatness newly bestowed, ought to be able in 2 seasons to match what Roy did in 1, but apparently not.

On the other hand, in the know-little world of RealGM, Oden's impact on the Blazers is either ignored or dismissed:

In 2007/08, Portland ranked in the bottom half of the league in every rebounding category. IIRC, they were about 20th in overall rebounding pecentage, and about 18th in defensive rebounding rate and 23rd in offensive rebounding rate.

Contrast that to Oden's first season: Portland led the NBA in both overall rebounding percentage and offensive rebounding percentage. And they were 5th in defensive rebounding rate. Oden was the only roster addition to affect that. Rudy fernandez certainly didn't strengthen Portland's rebounding numbers. This was all due to Oden.

And that is a huge impact to portland's fortunes. To go from a weak rebounding team to the best rebounding team is a simple testament to what Oden will bring to the floor for the Blazers and it's something that is ignored here all the time...like in this thread

So much text and yet you failed to mention how Seattle lost Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen before durant arrived. Were you just ignorant of that fact or were you deliberately trying to mislead readers about the effectiveness of Durant with his team?

maybe you're the one that is ignorant

Seattle was in rebuilding mode when they picked Durant, Green, and the following season Westbrook.

And the season before, when the Sonics had both Lewis and Allen...they won a grand total of 32 games. It was not a case that the Sonics traded the best players off a winning team. They were already a losing team with them.

The Blazers were in full rebuilding mode, just like Seattle, when they added Roy and Aldridge. Portland's low water mark was 21 wins. Seattle's was 20.

I don't have to "mislead" people about Durant's effectiveness...or lack of. If OKC wins 9 more games this season then last, they'll be where they were the season before Durant arrived.

The simple fact is that Durant has proved he can put points on the board. But he hasn't proven those points can translate into wins. People here keep yapping about all the great young talent that OKC has, but so far, all that talent simply sucks at securing NBA wins. On the other hand, Portland's great young talent has proven it can.

So the question of the OP can be truthfully answered NO, because winning 54 games and making the playoffs is not "messing up" compared to 23 wins and another trip to the lottery.

[dogg003]

whats funny...every team in the league minus orlando and houston would have taken oden 1st. He was a no brainer pick...every analyst said so...just happened to be portland...there is still time..his rookie season coincided with his first year of basketball after microfracture...give him a freakin break!

[JellosJigglin]

After watching him play in college, I never bought into the Oden hype to begin with, so yes Portland **** up.

[Malinhion]

After watching him play in college, I never bought into the Oden hype to begin with, so yes Portland **** up.

Yeah, because shooting left-handed free throws and leading your team to the NCAA Title Game as a freshman, where you outplay two other top-10-pick big men is wildly unimpressive.

[BballFanAddict]

There are two very fallacious concepts that impact whether this question even has legitimacy; and, too many typically knee-jerk / what-have-you-done-for-me-lately fans are chiming in with complete disregard for these same facts.

1. You're comparing a SF to a Center without even giving the Center time to develop. The guy had 1 year of college then 1 whole year missed due to MF surgery - yet he STILL put up NBA Center Rookie numbers on par with some of the greats (including Dwight Howard).

More to the point of comparing positions, if you know ANYTHING about the NBA then you know the Center position is a MAN's GAME whereas the 4 through 1 (in the same descending order) are predominantly finesse positions. Oden is banging and being banged by MEN nearly 2x his age; he is having to establish position with these same MEN. Durant merely flutters about on the perimeter where the newest NBA rules allow for almost no physical contact and a totat freedom to operate.

This is why "Bigs" take longer to develop - they are actually playing a MAN'S game.

2. The entire question is proposed on the basis of who is the better player? And, it seems by the standards of a lot of superficial fans on here believe that is the player who scores the most points on a crappy team. Durant IS and will ALWAYS be the better Offensive player. Portland did not need O - and still do not - they were in the bottom five for D AND Rebounding before Oden was picked.

So, again, while I understand the allure of comparing these two, lets see if Oden can play to a level high enough to compliment Roy and Lamarcus so that they win rings instead of SCORING TITLES. It was not a BOPA (Best Offensive Player Available) - it was: Best Fit / Need to get a Title.

For the record, I love Durant and wish him the best. If Oden busts this year, then I will re-visit the topic. But, Oden is definitely worth waiting for; he simply has all of the tools to dominate just like a Dwight Howard.

[Ju Mad]

Oden will get better. I don't think he'll ever be a dominant center but the way the league is structed now he doesn't need to be. It all depends on if he can stay healthy.

[AZ BLAZER]

There was no project big, point guard or expirings available for Randolph. You are just utterly wrong.

Ok, so he expired the enxt year - that was my mistake, but The Franchise was still brought in for his value as an expiring contract, rather than his prowess on the court, no? Did Portland not also receive Channing Frye? At the time, would he not have been considered a "project big" (6'11" 8th pick in the draft 2 years earlier)?

In reference to:
"And what decent back up big(s) are available? Don't just say trade Webster/Outlaw for a decent big without giving an example of decent bigs that are available. There are none. This is BS and you know it"

I agree, i should have given an example, but to say there are none is foolish. Perhaps on August 8 2009 - deep into the 09/10 free-agent signing period - a veteran back up C/PF is hard to come by, but the trade for Randolph was on June 28 of 2007 - 2 years ago.

Now i don't claim to be an expert on the Blazers, or their player movement, but I have read numerous rumors/threads/posts about the possibly of a webster/outlaw/batum etc. trade so i can only assume the idea of packaging them for a veteran back-up big is not that far fetched?

I forgot that Frye was in that deal. Buth then that is an indictment about how utterly pathetic Frye was/is. Francis was not brought in as an expiring. He had two years left on his contract. Portland paid him $34 mile I believe it was to go away. He was not an expiring, and Portland would not keep him around long enough to be an expiring.

When talking about trading Outlaw/Webster/Batum for a backup big, look at their contract size and value to Portland. Batum is not going anywhere so strike him off of the list. Outlaw makes $3.6 mil and is an expiring. I doubt that Portland wants to spend anymore than that on a backup PF that will only play 10-12 mpg. Portland is probably better off waiting to see who gets cut or just go with one of the second rounders.

[AZ BLAZER]

One guy has played in more than twice as many NBA games as the other. Isn't this a little ridiculous?

One guy won more games as a injured rookie than the other did in two healthy seasons.

[Brandon-Clyde]

scramm on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:45 am

Durant isn't crazy over-rated. The guy averages 25 a game on 48% shooting. That's a great SF.

G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS

53 50 34.4 9.2 18.5 .498 0.0 0.1 .000 6.6 8.3 .797 2.7 4.2 6.8 2.2 1.3 0.4 2.9 2.7 25.1
This player averaged 25.1ppg(from the SF position btw) while shooting 49.8%. Would you consider him a good player? Most don't because he never helped his team win. Stats are very nice but until wins follow they are essentially meaningless.. Zach Randolph has put up good to great stats for several years but is not considered a good player because his teams lose,Jamaal Crawford has put up good numbers and this player,Orlando Woolridge, had several very good years statistically but never helped his teams win.
Both Durant and Oden are at the beginnings of their careers. It is still too early to judge either of them great or bust.

[Don Draper]

I can't believe what I am seeing in this thread. I think Kevin Durant will eventually be a stud but as of now he is being grossly overrated.

Let's look at his numbers:
ORtg: 111
USG%: 28.1
TS%: .577
Adjusted +/- : -8.62 (last on his team)

Compare that to these two players:
ORtg: 114
USG%: 29.6
TS%: .584
Adjusted +/- : +6.59 (1st on his team)

ORtg: 123
USG%: 27.5
TS%: .573
Adjusted +/- : +3.53 (2nd on his team)

Those 2 players are Danny Granger and Brandon Roy. Both had better seasons. Brandon Roy by a mile. It can be argued that Vince Carter had a slightly better statistical season as well. There is no reason to even bring Lebron, Kobe, or Wade into this discussion so I won't. That brings me to this question: If his stats don't put him in the Lebron, Wade, or Kobe category (which a lot of people are) what justifies him being close to those guys? Honestly, how many times have you seen him play? Like I said I think he will be a stud, but he is nowhere in the realm of the top three scorers in the NBA.

Here is an interesting comparison Dr. David Berri did on Durant vs Oden.
http://www.wagesofwins.com/DurantOden740809.html