VW = ? (Rookie Season Thread)

[SNPA]

He is second in the ROY conversation and miiiight be a coach’s alternate for all-star (tough to predict; definitely not making top six for frontcourt though). He is not remotely playing like a GOAT-level defensive player — although yes, the potential is and has always been there — and will not sniff the DPoY conversation. He will not make all-NBA or come close and is accordingly not even a thought for MVP.

If you do not care what he is doing now, that tells me you finally realised your year one expectations were laughably high.

Season is over?

He just starting playing his real position a handful of games ago, is 19 and living in a foreign country. He is progressing nicely, especially without a real PG. Hell, he is a better passer than Sochan.

You are not a real human being if you think Wemby is going to be in the MVP conversation leading the 2nd worst team in the nba to winning under 20 games lmao

I’m not even clear what you are arguing.

You think he sucks as a rookie? Or is just a disappointment?

[AEnigma]

We think he is a good rookie who is not of any actual relevance to the league, just like most good rookies of the past thirty years.

[SNPA]

We think he is a good rookie who is not of any actual relevance to the league, just like most good rookies of the past thirty years.

Relevance is the key term. But ok. His team sucks on purpose and is not giving him what he needs to be truly successful. Agreed. That’s not his fault though.

[AEnigma]

Sure, but it does make the claim he would be a GOAT defender Day One and push for DPoY/MVP look pretty ludicrous. The Spurs right now are just as bad as they were last year. That is not Wemby’s fault, but it certainly does not speak to him immediately providing some transformational impact that way you seemed to expect.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Season is over?

He just starting playing his real position a handful of games ago, is 19 and living in a foreign country. He is progressing nicely, especially without a real PG. Hell, he is a better passer than Sochan.

You are not a real human being if you think Wemby is going to be in the MVP conversation leading the 2nd worst team in the nba to winning under 20 games lmao

I’m not even clear what you are arguing.

You think he sucks as a rookie? Or is just a disappointment?

No lol that you were ridiculously high on how his rookie year would go when he wasn’t even that dominant in a league multiple levels below the NBA lol

You said he was gonna be an MVP level guy his rookie year and it would be a historically good one and that clearly isn’t true

[MyUniBroDavis]

Sure, but it does make the claim he would be a GOAT defender Day One and push for DPoY/MVP look pretty ludicrous. The Spurs right now are just as bas as they were last year. That is not Wemby’s fault, but it certainly does not speak to him immediately providing some transformational impact that way you seemed to expect.

Let’s be real they’re worse they’ve only beaten an nba team 4 times this year (the pistons aren’t an NBA team)

[MyUniBroDavis]

My opinion on Wemby has not changed whatsoever btw, but the first year MVP take was never gonna happen

[SNPA]

You are not a real human being if you think Wemby is going to be in the MVP conversation leading the 2nd worst team in the nba to winning under 20 games lmao

I’m not even clear what you are arguing.

You think he sucks as a rookie? Or is just a disappointment?

No lol that you were ridiculously high on how his rookie year would go when he wasn’t even that dominant in a league multiple levels below the NBA lol

You said he was gonna be an MVP level guy his rookie year and it would be a historically good one and that clearly isn’t true

I don’t give a crap about his rookie year. I care about the changing of eras. LeBrons era is over. It’s VW’s era now. He has done more than enough on the court over his first 30’ish game to show that. Don’t miss the forest through the trees.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I’m not even clear what you are arguing.

You think he sucks as a rookie? Or is just a disappointment?

No lol that you were ridiculously high on how his rookie year would go when he wasn’t even that dominant in a league multiple levels below the NBA lol

You said he was gonna be an MVP level guy his rookie year and it would be a historically good one and that clearly isn’t true

I don’t give a crap about his rookie year. I care about the changing of eras. LeBrons era is over. It’s VW’s era now. He has done more than enough on the court over his first 30’ish game to show that. Don’t miss the forest through the trees.

You literally said this lmao

VW in a couple months is in the ROY, DPOY, All-Star and MVP conversation. It would take injury or a massive rookie wall regression to stop him. What we are watching is not normal… We all basically agree we are looking at a GOAT level defensive player day one.

It’s fine to be wrong but it’s hilarious you can’t admit it

[SNPA]

No lol that you were ridiculously high on how his rookie year would go when he wasn’t even that dominant in a league multiple levels below the NBA lol

You said he was gonna be an MVP level guy his rookie year and it would be a historically good one and that clearly isn’t true

I don’t give a crap about his rookie year. I care about the changing of eras. LeBrons era is over. It’s VW’s era now. He has done more than enough on the court over his first 30’ish game to show that. Don’t miss the forest through the trees.

You literally said this lmao

VW in a couple months is in the ROY, DPOY, All-Star and MVP conversation. It would take injury or a massive rookie wall regression to stop him. What we are watching is not normal… We all basically agree we are looking at a GOAT level defensive player day one.

It’s fine to be wrong but it’s hilarious you can’t admit it

He will be ROY. He will get DPOY buzz. He will get some all star buzz. The MVP part was qualified and you edited that part out.

I was wrong about some things, I did not anticipate Pop intentionally tossing his rookie year in the trash and all the negative effects that has on his development.

[AEnigma]

I don’t give a crap about his rookie year. I care about the changing of eras. LeBrons era is over. It’s VW’s era now. He has done more than enough on the court over his first 30’ish game to show that. Don’t miss the forest through the trees.

You literally said this lmao

VW in a couple months is in the ROY, DPOY, All-Star and MVP conversation. It would take injury or a massive rookie wall regression to stop him. What we are watching is not normal… We all basically agree we are looking at a GOAT level defensive player day one.

It’s fine to be wrong but it’s hilarious you can’t admit it

He will be ROY.

Still trailing Chet.

He will get DPOY buzz.

The Spurs are a bottom six team defence.

He will get some all star buzz.

This is true but more because “all-star buzz” applies to forty players a year.

The MVP part was qualified and you edited that part out.

Nope.

was wrong about some things, I did not anticipate Pop intentionally tossing his rookie year in the trash and all the negative effects that has on his development.

What is the intentionality. Everything Popovich said in the offseason indicated he thought this team could push for the play-in, and instead they are a bottom five team. Do you think they are deliberately tanking for a bad draft class? Again, they are no better than last year — when at least you could say they were blatantly gunning for Wemby or Scoot. What is the excuse this year?

Wemby does not have the skillset yet to elevate a bad NBA team. And that is what is needed to be on an MVP trajectory for the year. That is what is needed if you are supposed to be the league’s best defensive player.

[rk2023]

Update time after very interesting stretch of games:

Passing

Read on Twitter

Giannis was 4.2 AST-3.5 TOV, Durant was 3.5 AST-4.2 TOV, Embiid was 4.1 AST-7.3 TOV, Wembanyama is 5.0 AST-5.1 TOV in terms of per100 possessions stats as rookies/20yos - all of Giannis, Durant and Embiid this year developed to the level of ~8 assists/100 possessions (6 assists per game) and I guess that's very likely considering what Wemby has shown so far with some flashes of great passing.

Wemby as a center

He started to play as a starting center on 12/08/2023. Since, in 13 games he averages 19.7 PTS - 10.9 REB - 3.9 AST - 3.9 BLK per game (27.1 minutes) on 56.5 TS%.

In the full season (without last game):

Collins/Bassey on (per 30, 447 min):

16.5 PTS
9.6 REB
2.7 AST
2.2 BLK
3.4 TOV
49.4 TS%

Collins/Bassey off (per 30, 457 min):

23.2 PTS
11.2 REB
3.2 AST
4.5 BLK
3.3 TOV
58.7 TS%

Wemby with a point guard

Tre Jones on (352 minutes, per 30):

23.2 PTS on 60.5TS%

Tre Jones off (552 minutes):

17.8 PTS on 50.3 TS%

It's still a small/medium sample size, but I guess you can wonder whether Wemby as a center in decent environment is a ~top50 player already. Not necessarily saying his production as a center/with Tre is sustainable in terms of efficiency in full-season sample (23-11-3-4 in 30 minutes is quite insane), but it's obvious, I believe, he can provide elite rebounding/shotblocking/supplementary ~efficient scoring/streaky shooting as a center, so it sounds like an upgraded version of Lopez or Turner overall (in different circumstances).

***All of these excluding 'Low Leverage' Minute***

Wemby's on/off as stands:
- 106.6-115.8 on-court net rating (832 min)

- 109.9-126.1 off-court net rating (655 min)

- swing of 7 net rating points

In various situations, I think Wemby could be at-least a neutral on Offense. His shot diet has left some on the table, I would be lying if I said that wasn't the case.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Quite evident to see the stark difference, and it seems a lot of this matches what I'm seeing in real-time / rewatching film. Victor being such an efficacious scorer from 0-10 feet is bolstered by how much margin of error he is given as virtue of his size. Even there, I think there are times where he is hesitant / not in the right place at the right time (feel is a developed over-time skill) and could only get better.

From outside of 10 feet, It can be a rough watch sometimes - which isn't too much of a surprise given his prior shooting indicators into the draft. His form certainly should see some tweaks, and it will be interesting to see which particular zone (eg. 10-16, long mid-range, 3) starts to witness a spike in efficiency first. This becomes much more of a concern assessing his 3P scoring, as he takes slightly over 30% of his shots from downtown with underwhelming efficiency to show for it. He does shoot 79.6% from the Free-Throw Stripe however, which is good but not game-breaking (even in a more skilled offensive era, I would say it's rather impressive for a big man). Perhaps that could lend credence to the theory of him having more of an effective "middle" mid-range game in the current season / other years to come?

His passing has witnessed somewhat of an uptick in effectiveness throughout the last few months - as his AST % is vastly better in December / Jan opposed to October / November with a TOV% that has followed suit. Goodhart's law can certainly be the case using the box score to assess playmaking (in general, not just Wemby's case) - so it is important to see what the film says. Wembanyama being involved more and more as a "hub" to orchestrate out of short-rolls, dribble hand-offs, and post entry passes for cutters and 'give-and-go' shooters around him has been the primary utility of his playmaking. With how much roll gravity and a vertical spacing threat Vic has due to his size, I'd say that forces adjustment of defensive coverages - but his ability as a screener ought to see some improvement as well. Being involved as a unique PnR handler in inverse sets is also something I have seen San Antonio utilize more often to tap into his passing chops.

Either way, when looking at the holistic offensive package - I would say that the stats looking at him deployed as a traditional modern center paint the picture of how / why he can be an impactful player and non-liability on offense using more of a standardized and across situations framework to assess players (eg. CORP). As I mentioned however, I am unsure how his shot tendencies would scale up (interior) and down (exterior) across different situations - which is holding me back somewhat in evaluation. I think his defense should speak for itself. He is killing it in most impact metrics. I'd guess that the box score certainly helps his case here due to the extremely high block rate. However, his defensive swing is north of 10 points and indicates he is somewhat holding down a unit that can't guard in the minutes he is off the floor. the rim protection and deterrence factor (I'd have to look into the latter more) certainly seem real eye-test wise, but I'd say he still has room to grow on that end with better positional awareness and understanding of opponent tendencies / team's plays. Either way, what has happened so far in the season couldn't be a better foundation for a 20 year old to have

I agree with the rhetoric you're getting at regarding his ranking, where I'd probably regard him as one of the better sub all-star guys in the league.

[SNPA]

You literally said this lmao



It’s fine to be wrong but it’s hilarious you can’t admit it

He will be ROY.

Still trailing Chet.

I wasn’t aware there is in season official vote tracking.

He will get DPOY buzz.

The Spurs are a bottom six team defence.

Yeah. They suck on purpose.

He will get some all star buzz.

This is true but more because “all-star buzz” applies to forty players a year.

How many of those players are 19yr old rookies?

The MVP part was qualified and you edited that part out.

Nope.

Said in a different post, as I recall. Ironically the reasons I thought that chatter would not be much is for reasons you have both highlighted over the past few pages.

was wrong about some things, I did not anticipate Pop intentionally tossing his rookie year in the trash and all the negative effects that has on his development.

What is the intentionality. Everything Popovich said in the offseason indicated he thought this team could push for the play-in, and instead they are a bottom five team. Do you think they are deliberately tanking for a bad draft class? Again, they are no better than last year — when at least you could say they were blatantly gunning for Wemby or Scoot. What is the excuse this year?

Sochan at PG is low key intentionally tanking. There’s no way around it.

Wemby does not have the skillset yet to elevate a bad NBA team. And that is what is needed to be on an MVP trajectory for the year. That is what is needed if you are supposed to be the league’s best defensive player.

He is 19. He has played a handful of games at center. He has no PG to establish the offense and set him up. He is easily on track giving all circumstances.

This kid is next level and showing enough to backup that statement. That’s the point.

[capfan33]

I like Wemby and have since the beginning, I think his 50th percentile outcome is an MVPish level player, but he hasn't been anything spectacular so far. Flashes, sure. Holistically, he definitely looks like a 19 year old rookie. The complete lack of shooting ability as RK showed is probably the most concerning, but I still think he's on track to be an extremely good player.

And he will probably get some DPOY votes, but like, realistically, you're not a DPOY level defender if you're team's defense is 6th worst in the league.

[rk2023]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[AEnigma]

There we go, if he keeps playing the Pistons and Hornets, he probably will have a shot at MVP.

[The Master]

I've posted it on GB section, but there these posts are so often dumped very quickly so I post it here as well.

Mid-season update



Last 15 games of both (because Wembanyama started to play as a center on December 8th):



Defensive metrics:



Holmgren without SGA:



Wembanyama as a center/as a power forward



Wembanyama with regular point guard (Tre Jones):



1. So far, Holmgren has been better this year, but while he maintains consistent level - Wembanyama has improved rapidly since he started to play as a center at the beginning of December. Comparison of his numbers as a PF and C are a bit inflated due to fact he started simultaneously to play with Tre (only 'regular' point guard on Spurs' rotation), the difference of his defensive metrics (4.3 vs 2.2 blocks per 30 minutes) is insane. Basically, he played out of position for 20 games or so.
2. While Holmgren doesn't get bigger offensive volume while playing without SGA - it's not true (although it's mid-sample size) that his efficiency depends on playing alongside SGA as his averages are basically the same with/without Shai with positive net rating (what's in line with other numbers suggesting his ~top30/top40 impact at least).
3. While Holmgren is borderline All-NBA D candidate with those metrics - Wembanyama looks like a tier better defender (although obviously his crazy D net is inflated by Spurs being much worse defensively than Thunder), but as a rookie he has the best combination of raw boxscore numbers (BLK, SPG, DReb%) and more advanced (net rating, DFG%, DFG% at rim, BPM, EPM) stats in the league, probably.
4. Wembanyama was 'punished' by Spurs and Pop experimenting with weird lineups (Sochan as a point guard/Wembanyama as a power forward), because since he started to play as a center with more minutes alongside Tre, he's pretty much All-Star level player on minutes restrictions on pretty bad team, even his raw numbers in this span 21-11-4-4 on 59TS% are crazy.
5. Holmgren overall is borderline allstar as well - he's 19th in BPM, 12th in EPM, +3 on/off on top2 SRS team, even if you punish him for role player-offensive usage, he's still near prime Al Horford level considering his defensive impact and vertical/horizontal spacing he provides (he's worse 1v1 defender and passer than Horford, but better rim protector and shooter). I'd give an edge to prime Horford, but Chet isn't far away in terms of two-way impact.

Verdict?

So far, Holmgren is ROTY; we'll see if he can improve in the latter part of the season as it's quite obvious now that Wemby will get better and better unless Pop starts to experiment again; while Holmgren is great prospect on his own - Wemby is consistent jumper and better team away from being a superstar. Now, imagine him improving passing, creating his own shot and face-up/low post skills. His combination of defensive skills (as a rookie, he's 4th in terms of DRB% among players playing bigger minutes and second in BLK%, now imagine him getting 10-20 pounds of muscle) and offensive upside is - as advertised - historically unparalleled.

[AdagioPace]

thanks for this in-depth midseason summary (good presentation as well)

[tsherkin]

I've posted it on GB section, but there these posts are so often dumped very quickly so I post it here as well.
...

Great update, thanks!

[MrVorp]

He's already up to 6th in the league in DARKO DPM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhwOLqPu2F9026EQiVxFPIN1t9RGafGpl-dokaIsm9c/edit#gid=1064086941