RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Bob Cousy)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#21 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Mar 5, 2024 2:03 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:There are only a handful of things I feel strongly about when it comes to the top 100, and Walton not making the cut is one of them. He's the outlier example of a player who absolutely deserves to shine in a peaks project, but not here. I've always voted for him highly in those.

While everyone has different criteria, we're still looking at careers here and Walton just doesn't have much of one. Even if I wasn't a longevity guy, he still doesn't really match say active players with very strong primes or even other all time greats with durability issues.

He cracked 70 games played once in his career, his second to last season when he won 6th man of the year playing 19.3 MPG. He missed 3 full seasons due to injury. In the 10 seasons he did appear in an NBA game, he played in 35 or less in 4 of them. His peak was no doubt incredible as I said. But the severe lack of availability ultimately hurt his teams between Portland and Boston where he didn't make a single playoff appearance.


You've got a great point, and I wouldn't mind at all if Walton misses the list. That said, I did use my 2nd Nomination vote on him over people with much better longevity so clearly I'm pretty different in mindset.

For me there is a factor here about indelibility of certain accomplishments. Not wrong to accuse me of winning bias, but if what a guy did in a short career surpasses anything I could ever expect to get from another guy, I feel a pull.

To try to be as clear as possible in what I mean: I see Walton as not simply leading a team to a title, but leading a team to be the best team of its half-decade or so epoch. This is a big deal to me, and it's hard for me to look at a guy like Horford as really giving me more than that.

I think the immediate rebuttal to my perspective here is this: There was luck involved in Walton finally getting healthy at the right time in the right situation, and in infinite universes it's entirely possible the odds of Walton having a run like that was very, very small, and thus in most of those universes Horford accomplishes more.

I totally respect that perspective, and I don't want to pretend I never think at all in those terms, but I do have a bias toward the universe I live in and the greatness we actually got to witness.

One other thing may not mean a lot to others but is at least significant to me: The fact that Walton was able to look so, so good once he got healthy many years after his peak to me really speaks to how generally effective Walton was at basketball. In comparison to my guy Connie Hawkins, for example, I think Walton really was able to have huge impact as a matter of course with a wide variety of primacies. Hawk by contrast struggled when asked to fit in around others and unfortunately, his ABA/NBA career really only had a handful of years where it made sense to mold the team around him instead.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#22 » by penbeast0 » Tue Mar 5, 2024 2:25 am

When did Hawkins struggle to fit in? He struggled to be great with his knees gone but he made a place for himself first as more of a jump shooter in Phoenix then, in LA, as more of a passing/defensive big man when he had lost his lift.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#23 » by eminence » Tue Mar 5, 2024 2:34 am

Vote #1: Bob Cousy
-Pretty solid prime length ('51-'59 with a down '58)
-Good impact profile, very good if you curve it for mostly being what we would think of as late/post prime seasons
-High volume offense creator
-Ups and downs in the playoffs, but enough appearances to rack up plenty of positive accomplishment
-The worry with players of his type as they age always seems to be that they'll somehow prevent great teams from achieving what they're capable of, and he certainly didn't do that (WestGOATs 3 year relative SRS has '60-'62 as the #2 3 year run all-time behind only the '16-'18 Warriors)

Vote #2: Allen Iverson
-He's beating two of the guys here on longevity first and last. I get the Walton arguments, I'm not interested in re-litigating. Hagan hung around a bit longer, and if he'd been as good as Walton I'd be voting for him. But frankly I see him as marginally better than Iverson at best.
-Dantley vs Iverson the real competition for me. I'm a bit more impressed by what Iverson did as his squads #1. Both (similar to Cousy) did better than one might expect as their role scaled down.
-ATG playmaker I don't see, but he was certainly better making plays for others than Dantley.

Nomination #1: Bob Davies
-Greatest guard of the 1st era of the league
-For starting late (age 26 season) has some decent longevity. I would consider him an Allstar+ level of guard for 8 seasons '46-'53, strong argument for #2 player in the world broadly over the period
-2x champ in a starring role
-Not directly part of his case, but he gets a moral bonus point from me for being an early advocate for league integration

Swung and missed with Marion last round, so looking again at who is getting votes...

Nomination #2: Tony Parker
-Don't feel emphatic about this one, but he certainly accomplished a lot.
-Played quality ball for a long time.
-Not particularly high on his peak, probably just Allstar level imo.

I'm not sure who the next guy I really want in after Davies is, need to think on that one some more.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#24 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Mar 5, 2024 5:43 am

penbeast0 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:There are only a handful of things I feel strongly about when it comes to the top 100, and Walton not making the cut is one of them. He's the outlier example of a player who absolutely deserves to shine in a peaks project, but not here. I've always voted for him highly in those.

While everyone has different criteria, we're still looking at careers here and Walton just doesn't have much of one. Even if I wasn't a longevity guy, he still doesn't really match say active players with very strong primes or even other all time greats with durability issues.

He cracked 70 games played once in his career, his second to last season when he won 6th man of the year playing 19.3 MPG. He missed 3 full seasons due to injury. In the 10 seasons he did appear in an NBA game, he played in 35 or less in 4 of them. His peak was no doubt incredible as I said. But the severe lack of availability ultimately hurt his teams between Portland and Boston where he didn't make a single playoff appearance.


Well, I don't think it's news that Walton had a couple of seasons in the NBA. He sure made them count though.


In terms of making it to the playoffs as a starter, Walton didn't have "a couple of seasons," he had one. He had one other season of over 60 games as a starter and one as a reserve.

In those seasons, he was terrific, exactly the type of player I love with defense and passing rather than high scoring being his trademarks. But while he's a legit candidate for top 10 all time peak season, he's got nothing else and I can't see him above a "pretty good for a long time" guy like Larry Nance, Shawn Marion, or even contemporary (and multiple ABA champion) Mel Daniels.

The rest of his career, he demanded to be paid like a HOF superstar, that teams be built around him, then broke down again and again leaving those teams (Portland and the Clippers) to flounder. He finally accepted a reserve role on the ATG candidate Bird/McHale/Parish Celtics only to break down again after one year as an all time great reserve. That's just not enough for this level of competition.

Hm? He made the playoffs twice. Two = a couple. He had a couple of seasons.

Am I missing something? Do you mean that he did not play in the playoffs?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#25 » by OhayoKD » Tue Mar 5, 2024 5:43 am

Vote

1. Allen Iverson
-> Strong playmaker with okay scoring
-> Gave the only loss to an arguable top 2 playoff team ever on the back of one of the best single-game guard performances ever


Much like with Isiah, I am surprisingly one of the first to back Iverson. Iverson had a pretty nice 10-to-12-year prime before his rapid decline. His cultural legacy outpaced his real impact, but his ability to shoulder massive minutes and scoring loads did have a notable lift on his team. The 76ers went from a -9.5 SRS team to a -5.5 team (factoring his missed games) upon his arrival. From 1997-2007, they won at a 33-win pace without him and a 42-win pace with him. That is not overwhelming improvement, but it is a lot of value provided over eleven years. His effect in Denver was more tepid — unsurprising given the scoring overlap with Carmelo — but I think he deserves credit for helping them reach what to that point was a new high mark in wins and SRS, and as I believe I have detailed elsewhere, the difference between the 2008 team and the 2009 team tends to be overstated (although Billups was indeed better for that team).

It's better than what's there for the Boston guys at least. The sample size is also pretty good.

Looking at more specific "peak" stretches In 2001 they jumped from a win-pace of 44 without to 57 with and a win-pace of 27 without and 48-with in 2002(statmuse).

So we get some very strong peak signals(2002 is outright excellent though not really replicated anywhere), and solid extended signal over a lot of games and alot of seasons. Idk how many players that are on still the board can say that. Pair that with some excellent basic playmaking numbers(45% ast: 13.1 being the best) and I have more confidence with iverson than the other offense players being nominated(some of whose teams dont even seem to improve without them just going by the numbers and played in a league where offense did not really produce championshps).

2. Alt: Cliff Hagan

Nomination

1. Al Hoford

2. Jayson Tatum



With Jones and Cousy getting some traction, i'll copy and paste some of the counterpoints offered in the #72 thread that I do not think have been satisfactorily addressed:

Skepticism on Sam Jones and Bob Cousy
Spoiler:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
As an era-relativist, I get irked when the only(or predominant) argument someone can come up with for one player over another is "tougher era".

I also take issue with "reasonably equivalent offensive production" when Sharman was significantly more efficient relative to his competition.

Ultimately though, my real gripe isn't that you might take Jones over Sharman(though I disagree with it), it's the fact that Sharman didn't make the Top 100 at all last time(or the time before that) while Jones made it both times. I just want to make sure Sharman is in the conversation because I don't see any argument for him not to make the list if Jones is in.

Or we can exclude both :D

Sam Jones does look better by WOWY, mostly by default:
In ’61, Sharman missed 18 games and the Celtics were (again) better without him.

This trend would hold throughout most of Russell’s career. In ’66, Sam Jones missed eight games and Boston’s performance didn’t budge. Jones missed 11 more contests in ’69 and the team was about 2 points worse without him. All told, as the roster cycled around Russell, his impact seemed to remain

I would have pause considering either for the top 100 simply because they were on championship teams. I also know some voters here have put stock into moonbeam's version of psuedo-rapm where Russell is the gold standard regularized and torches the field to a degree no one else across history does with his raw inputs(doubles 2nd place Wilt iirc over a certain stretch). Lots of emphasis on points and ts add on average offenses seems odd. Sam Jones defense has been praised but he is a guard and the defenses don't actually seem to care too much about whether he's there or not. 1969 is probably not fair since it's 6th man Sam Jones, but 1966 Sam Jones put up one of his highest point totals and fg percentages so if that version is not making a signficant impact, why is he being voted in here, let alone Sherman?

Honestly would be wierd to be putting more of Russell's teammates on this list than last time when we have a bunch of new evidence/argumentation suggesting Russell is more valuable individually than people were crediting him as the last go around and we have a bunch of new players to consider. Do these players actually warrant being considered over 100 other nba players?

Am pretty open to Cousy since he was post-prime with his own unimpressive signal and I assume he did something to earn the MVP but...
trex_8063 wrote:

Will first emphasize that your above comments appear to specifically delineate Cousy's post-prime. And I'll also acknowledge that the league/game progressed faster than Cousy did as a player.

That said, the limited/noisy impact metric from the very same source (Ben Taylor) reflects decently upon Cousy: his prime WOWYR is +4.4, career +3.9.

As always, when using these sorts of numbers I think it can be worthwhile to check what the sample here is. I don't know what exact years are factored into prime, but up until 1957, Cousy doesn't really miss time with the exception of 52 and 51 where the Celtics see a +1.3 SRS improvement when Cousy joins. I don't highlight that to criticize rookie Cousy, but rather to highlight a potential discrepancy:

With how WOWYR works(this is true in general when you take stretched singals vs concentrated ones but WOWYR's "adjustments" compound this considerably), that +3.9(and perhaps to a degree the +4.4) is disproportionately operating off that 1951 and 1952 wothout sample and transposing it as part of the off for all the other years(where cousy barely misses time) as well. Also note, unlike Moonbeam's version, the much larger sampled +1.3 mark is not factored in at all.

In other words, that score, mantained over a very small per-season sample, is likely significantly inflated by 9 games coming with a much weaker cast from Cousy's first two years.

I am also somewhat concerned with the lack of success in this pre-russell prime period where the team does not make a single final in a very weak league winnig a grand total of 4 series. The term "offensive dynasty" is thrown around for the Cousy years, but success on one side of the court is really not the point.

The Celtics having goat-level defenses is cool, but it matters to the degree it helped produce the most successful team ever, not because the goat defense isinofitself of extreme importance. Good on them for having the best offenses pre-Russell, but does it really matter if they weren't the all that close to being the best team?

eminence wrote:
On Cousy.

I think his early career WOWY signal is unfortunately impossible to pin down.

He/Macauley arrive in Boston at the same time, the league contracts from 17 to 10.5 teams, both the without and with samples have large gaps between their ratings/win% (in opposing directions). It all combines to make the '50 vs '51 Celtics comparison very difficult, though I think it's clear the two combine with Red to turn the franchise around (they were absolute garbage their first four seasons and turned into a consistent .500+/playoff squad).

He then misses a grand total of 1 RS game prior to '57.

Agreed that 'offensive dynasty' oversells the Celtics of the period (hey, sometimes we're all sellers). They were a decent to good team, built around a strong offense. Related - I believe they only won 3 series over that period (you may have counted the '54 round robin as two wins).

0-2 vs Knicks '51
1-2 vs Knicks '52
2-0 vs Nats '53
1-3 vs Knicks '53
2-2 '54 Round Robin (2-0 vs Knicks, 0-2 vs Nats)
0-2 vs Nats '54
2-1 vs Knicks '55
1-3 vs Nats '55
1-2 vs Nats '56

For comparison the other Eastern conference squads from '51-'56 (not counting tiebreakers).
Knicks 6 series wins
Nats 8 (counting the '54 round robin as 2 wins)
Warriors 2 (their '56 title)

A worse but healthier version of the Lob City Clippers.

My current sentiment on inclusion in the top 100 for both is Cousy as a maybe(entirely on the basis of him winning an MVP really), and Sam Jones as a no. The former does not have notable team-success in the "prime" we don't have substantial data for and Russell's Celtics play better without him in the post-period.

For the latter, we have a peak signal where the Celtics do not drop-off without him, a marginal bit of lift in the year he's a 6th man, and is his claim to fame is scoring prowess on an average offense with the possiblity that this is a result of scheme(which still only works if we assume Sam Jones had substantially better impact than what can be discerned statistically).

Possible he's just gotten unlucky with the games he's missed, but the evidence for Jones being top-100 worthy just isn't there I think.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#26 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Tue Mar 5, 2024 5:49 am

trex_8063 wrote:Induction vote: Bob Cousy

Alternate vote: Allen Iverson (SKEPTICS: PLEASE READ)

Nomination: Tony Parker
Alt Nomination: Larry Nance


Without quoting all of it, I just wanted to say that this was a fantastic and informative post regarding both Cousy and Iverson.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#27 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Tue Mar 5, 2024 6:11 am

So, given Cousy's traction, I wanted to share these excerpts from Bill Simmons' Book Of Basketball, specifically from his Pyramid player ranking. One is for Cousy, the other(the shorter one) is for Sharman.

I share these with the following acknowledgements:

1. Simmons' approach was not as empirical as ours(i.e. he, IIRC, didn't use any non-box stats, but then again, the book was written in 2008).
2. He is, of course, a legendary Celtics homer, so of course he's gonna love two Celtics.

Even so, he makes some points worth repeating here.

The Cooz should start fading historically soon - if it hasn't happened already - which is one of the reasons I want to write this book. We can't let that happen to a beloved Holy Cross grad. Future generations will point to his field goal shooting and say, "By any statistical calculation, Nash and Stockton were decidedly better." Fortunately, I'm here. Allow me to make the case for Cooz in four parts:

1. His poor shooting (37.5 percent for his career) was deceivingly abysmal because he peaked in the fifties, an unglorious decade for field goal percentages and scoring. Of the 66 players who played at least 300 games from 1951 to 1960, Ken Sears led everyone(45 percent), Freddie Scolari brought up the bottom(33 percent), and Cousy ranked forty-second(37 percent). Stretch that to a 500-game minimum and twenty-two players qualify: Neil Johnston leads the way(44 percent), Jack McMahon brings up the rear (34 percent) and Cousy ranks fifteenth (just three spots behind alleged deadeye Dolph Schayes). Comparing him to his point guard rivals from 1951 to 1963 (400-game minimum), Gene Shue shot 39.9 percent, Dick McGuire shot 39.6 percent, Bobby Wanzer shot 39.2 percent, Cousy shot 37 percent, Andy Phillip shot 36.8 percent, Slater Martin shot 36.5 percent ... and Cousy’s teams consistently averaged more shots and points than anyone else.

Fast-forward to the high-scoring eighties: of the 124 players who played 500 games or more from 1981 to 1990, Artis Gilmore led the way at 63 percent, Elston Turner brought up the back at 43 percent and Isiah Thomas ranked 105th (46 percent). If you narrow the list to point guards (twenty-three in all), Mo Cheeks ranks first (53 percent), Darnell Valentine ranks last (43 percent) and Isiah ranks fifteenth. In other words, Isiah was actually a worse shooter for his era than Cousy. J-Kidd sucked more than both of them combined, the seventh-worst shooter from 1995 to 2008 of anyone who played 500 games or more (40 percent). While we’re on the subject, Baron Davis (41 percent career), Kenny Anderson (42 percent), Iverson (42.6 percent) and Tim Hardaway (43 percent) were poorer shooters for their respective eras. So you can’t penalize the Cooz for peaking during a quantity-over-quality era of shot selection.

2. You know how everyone makes a fuss about that stupid Tiny Archibald record? Cousy finished second in points and first in assists in ’54 and ’55; unlike Tiny’s Royals, the Celtics made the playoffs both times. He cracked the top four in scoring four straight times (’52–’55), finished in the top ten in scoring four other times, never finished lower than third in assists in thirteen seasons and won eight straight assist titles. Let’s say we assigned points for every top ten finish in scoring or assists per game—10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on, with 0 points for anything outside the top ten —then tallied up the combined points for each player’s career. Here’s how the top point guards of all-time finish with that scoring system: Oscar, 181; Cousy, 164; Stockton, 139; West,102; Kidd, 96; Magic, 94; Wilkens, 89; Tiny, 87; Isiah, 64;Payton, 51. Just for kicks, a second list with the same scoring system, only first-team All-NBAs are worth 10 and second-team All-NBAs worth 5: Oscar, 281; Cousy, 274; West, 212; Magic, 189; Stockton, 189; Kidd, 151; Tiny, 127; Isiah, 104; Payton, 96; Wilkens, 89.

I hate the phrase “devil’s advocate” because it makes me think of that excruciating Keanu Reeves/Al Pacino movie that couldn’t even get the Charlize Theron nude scene right, but screw it: can you think of a valid reason why West (one title) and Oscar (one title) have endured historically as all-timers, but everyone has been so anxious to dump Cousy (six titles)? You can’t play the “he couldn’t have hacked it once the game sped up” card (like we used with Mikan earlier) because Cooz and Bob Pettit were the only NBA superstars who thrived pre-Russell and post-Russell. (If anything, Cooz was better off in a run-and-gun era—he led the league in assists as late as 1959 and 1960 and made second-team All-NBA in the final two years of his career.) You can’t play the “he couldn’t shoot” card because that’s untrue. You can’t play the “Russell made his career” card because he was better statistically pre-Russell and made just as many All-NBA teams without him. As recently as 1980, Cousy made the NBA’s 35th Anniversary twelve-man team. So what happened?

3. Cousy got screwed historically by his first four years (the pre-shot-clock era, when nobody scored more than 75–85 points a game) and the last five years (when they started counting assists differently). Cousy averaged 8.9 assists for a ’59 Celtics team that averaged 116.4 points per game; John Stockton averaged 12.4 assists for a ’94 Jazz team that averaged 101.9 points per game. How am I supposed to make sense of that? How do we know Cousy wasn’t averaging 15–16 assists per game if we applied the current criteria? By all accounts, nobody ran a better fast break and the stats reflect it: eight straight titles and four times where he finished with at least 30 percent more dimes than the number two guy. Cousy finished his career in 1963 with 6,945 assists; the next-highest guy(Dick McGuire) had 4,205. So it’s not like he was a little bit better than his peers, or a tad better, or even just better. He was significantly better.


If you're wondering where the fourth part is("Allow me to make the case for Cooz in four parts"), I omitted it because it was just about Cousy's influence on the game, how he paved the way for every PG after him, etc, and I know that stuff isn't really the point of this project.

I think he makes some compelling arguments, particularly the thing about assist criteria changing(which might be deflating his assist numbers) and the fact that the Celtics system w/Russell focused on shooting as quickly as possible and not on taking the best shots and thus that this could impact scoring efficiency.

And Sharman:

The NBA's best two-guard until Jerry West showed up; the first shooter to regularly crack 40 percent from the field and shoot 90 percent from the line; half of the most successful backcourt in the history of the league. Factoring in team success, individual careers, statistics, and total games played together, we haven't seen anything approaching Cousy and Sharman.(Lemme know when we'll see two guards from the same team make first-team All-NBA for four straight years.) When Sharman retired in 1961, only twenty-two noncenters had played 500 games or more at that time. Of those twenty-two players, Sharman ranked first in free throw percentage(88 percent) and second in shooting percentage(42.6 percent, just behind Bob Pettit); he was the only guard to crack 40 percent from the field. So Sharman was significantly better than any other two-guard from his era; the numbers, awards, and titles back this up, as does the fact that Sharman held off Sam Jones for four solid years. The six foot two Sharman even moonlighted as a third baseman in Brooklyn's farm system from 1950 to 1955, getting called up at the end of the '51 season and being thrown out of a game for yelling at an umpire, becoming the only player in major league history to get ejected from a game without ever actually appearing in one. Bizarre. But that gives you an idea of his athletic pedigree. He was also infamous for being the first player to (a)study opponents' tendencies and keep notes on them and (b) create a daily routine of stretching, exercising, and shooting and make a concerted effort to stick to that routine.

What doesn't live on historically was Sharman's defense. By all accounts, he was that decade's best lockdown defender and a feisty competitor who had more fights than Jake LaMotta. Jerry West once remembered being a rookie and making seven straight shots against an aging Sharman, then Sharman preventing an eight shot simply by taking a swing at him. As West told the L.A. Times years later, "I'll tell you this, you did not drive by him. He got into more fights than Mike Tyson. You respected him as a player." Sounds like my kind of guy. I'd tell you more, but Sharman retired when my mother was twelve.


The bolded parts(my emphasis) illustrate that not only was he one of the best scorers of his era(and if you believe the accounts/reputation, best perimeter defenders), but also that he was an outlier in terms of athleticism, work ethic, and basketball intelligence.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#28 » by LA Bird » Tue Mar 5, 2024 6:46 am

Vote 1: Bill Walton
Vote 2: Bob Cousy
Nom 1: Larry Nance
Nom 2: Sidney Moncrief?


Still working on the Walton writeup so I'll just copy paste my post on Nance vs McHale from 30 rounds ago:

For example, these are the career stats of McHale vs Nance, another PF from the same era who is usually ranked far below him.

McHale: 30118 MP, 17.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.4 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 60.5% TS, 20.0 PER, 113.0 WS, 34.3 VORP
Nance: 30697 MP, 17.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, 2.2 BPG, 58.6% TS, 19.9 PER, 109.6 WS, 43.5 VORP

McHale is clearly a better scorer (especially in playoffs) but Nance is ahead, at least statistically, in all other areas. Hell, Nance's peak scoring average (22.5 ppg on 60.7% TS) is actually almost identical to McHale's in his one season without Bird (22.5 ppg on 60.8% TS) and one could argue Nance's style of scoring is more era portable and easier to build around. If we dig into non-box impact metrics, Nance is ahead in ElGee's prime WOWYR (+5.1 vs +3.6), career WOWYR (+5.6 vs +2.6), and generally looks better in Moonbeam's RWOWY graph too. As a counterpoint, McHale was among top of the league in the limited 1988 RAPM data from squared2020 (even above Bird) but the problem with that is we saw how the Celtics dropped off the following season without Bird. All in all, I think the gap between McHale and Nance is not that big and considering one is usually ranked in the 40s and the other in the 80s in all time lists, the question then becomes whether McHale is moving down, Nance is moving up, or a bit of both. Personally, I don't feel comfortable going super high for Nance yet which means I can't really justify putting McHale in my top 50 while staying consistent.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#29 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Tue Mar 5, 2024 8:10 am

Induction Vote #1: Bob Cousy

Induction Vote #2: Adrian Dantley

I'm giving Cousy my #1 vote because he has a chance to get inducted now and if that's possible, I'd like to get it done - these 50s guys can lose support quickly, look what happened to Hagan.

Speaking of losing support, Dantley's share of the votes seems to be decreasing.

Nomination Vote #1: Sidney Moncrief

Nomination Vote #2: Bill Sharman

When taking into consideration two-way play, primacy, and team success, I think Moncrief is the best of the candidates that currently have any #1 votes.

Pushing for Sharman as always.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#30 » by Clyde Frazier » Tue Mar 5, 2024 9:41 am

Vote 1 - Adrian Dantley
Vote 2 - Allen Iverson
Nomination 1 - Sidney Moncrief
Nomination 2 - Larry Nance


Looking at the controversy with dantley leaving DET and them winning the championship following his departure, and it seems overblown. Dantley’s averages in the '88 finals (loss) are as follows:

21.3 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.3 APG, .6 SPG, 57.3% FG, 85.6% FT, 67.6% TS, 127 ORTG

Games 6 and 7 of the 88 finals were decided by a total of 4 points, and this was with a substandard game 7 by the injured isiah thomas. If he’s healthy, they very well could’ve won the title that year. I don’t hold the turn of events against dantley all that much relative to general perception.

Some great research here by Moonbeam on Dantley and other star SFs of the 80s:

Moonbeam wrote:I love looking at these guys because most of my favorite players are small forwards, and it was such an exciting time to watch, as these guys were each capable of amazing offensive outbursts.

One thing I've taken a hard look at is how to weigh up offensive statistics in the context of team offense. There has been a fair bit of discussion in the Top 100 poll about how to gauge individual performance based on team performance (e.g. Garnett's Minny teams did not generally excel on defense, how to compare Kidd's team offenses to Payton's given teammate quality), so I tried to come up with a rough model of expectations for team offense.

I used offensive win shares as the basis for this analysis. I know many aren't happy with OWS, but on a team-level, it is very strongly correlated with offensive rating, which is a good measure of overall team offensive performance. I looked at all regular season data from 1977-2014 to come up with a set of aging curves to encompass different types of peak shapes. I've used five different levels of peak sharpness and five different peak ages (21, 24, 27, 30, and 33), which makes it possible to model a player's career based on OWS/48, like this:

Image

This is a very simple approach, but I wanted something specific enough to broadly capture the relationship between offensive production and aging, but not too specific as to produce perfect models - I'm interested in the deviations from expectations, after all, so I'm happy with a bit of noise. :)

Based on these curves of expected OWS/48, I then looked at team offense relative to expectations as judged by total OWS. I'm still looking to road-test this analysis, so if you know of any instances where you felt a team overachieved or underachieved its talent level, I'd be eager to check it against my model!

I parsed out performance relative to expectations for each of these players plus Larry Bird (in >28 MPG seasons) and their respective teammates as a whole. Why 28 MPG? I wanted to include enough seasons to get a big picture view, plus I wanted to avoid discontinuities where I could (e.g. Bernard King's 1988 season). Here are the resulting plots of player OWS, player expected OWS, teammate ("help") OWS and expected teammate OWS:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Over this span, here are the MP-weighted averages for player OWS, % of team OWS, both rate and raw difference of help OWS to expectations:

Code: Select all

Player   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre  5.112  0.166    1.018      +0.428
Bird     7.429  0.220    1.048      +1.056
Dantley  8.803  0.394    0.844      -2.155
English  6.536  0.246    1.016      +0.307
Johnson  5.954  0.253    1.040      +0.636
King     4.466  0.269    0.887      -1.413
Wilkins  6.084  0.255    1.015      +0.260
Worthy   5.065  0.155    1.116      +2.809


On the surface, it looks like Dantley (and to a lesser extent, King) may be getting their Win Shares somewhat at the expense of teammates, while Bird and Worthy are associated with boosts for their teammates. How much praise (or blame) should be apportioned for performance of teammates is up for debate, but I think it at least provides a framework for comparison.

Taking a look at the 5-year intervals in the OP:

Code: Select all

Player  Years   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre 84-88   5.920  0.187    1.041      +1.005
Bird    84-88   9.933  0.302    0.989      -0.257
Dantley 80-84  11.213  0.553    1.083      +0.606
English 82-86   7.849  0.268    1.026      +0.548
Johnson 79-83   7.192  0.275    1.057      +0.984
King    81-85   6.675  0.323    0.919      -1.268
Wilkins 86-90   7.835  0.270    1.158      +2.891
Worthy  86-90   6.465  0.180    1.181      +4.496


Dantley is clearly the leader in both OWS and percentage of team offense (some of those supporting casts in Utah look dreadful), but perhaps he didn't provide the "lift" as others (or worse, perhaps his presence deflated his teammates offense). If we split his career into phases, it seems his early career is where his teammates fared the worst (0.731 rate, fit issues with Lakers?), while in Utah they performed nearly to (awful) expectations (0.968 rate), while in Detroit during 87-88, the rate fell to 0.801 (problems of fit with Isiah?), and across 89-90, it was 0.935.

I don't think Worthy's help numbers are attributable to him so much as they are to Magic, but he clearly fit into Showtime quite well. Wilkins looks like he could have provided decent lift across 86-90, and Aguirre's apparent issues with teammates did not seem to affect his teams' offenses.

I've got H2H stats I can post later, but I thought I'd put this out there as it's a fascinating comparison for me. :)


Entire discussion here:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=41264223#p41264223
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#31 » by penbeast0 » Tue Mar 5, 2024 12:50 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Well, I don't think it's news that Walton had a couple of seasons in the NBA. He sure made them count though.


In terms of making it to the playoffs as a starter, Walton didn't have "a couple of seasons," he had one. He had one other season of over 60 games as a starter and one as a reserve.

In those seasons, he was terrific, exactly the type of player I love with defense and passing rather than high scoring being his trademarks. But while he's a legit candidate for top 10 all time peak season, he's got nothing else and I can't see him above a "pretty good for a long time" guy like Larry Nance, Shawn Marion, or even contemporary (and multiple ABA champion) Mel Daniels.

The rest of his career, he demanded to be paid like a HOF superstar, that teams be built around him, then broke down again and again leaving those teams (Portland and the Clippers) to flounder. He finally accepted a reserve role on the ATG candidate Bird/McHale/Parish Celtics only to break down again after one year as an all time great reserve. That's just not enough for this level of competition.

Hm? He made the playoffs twice. Two = a couple. He had a couple of seasons.

Am I missing something? Do you mean that he did not play in the playoffs?


He played in 4 playoffs. One was the title, one he played 2 games, one was 86 as a top reserve, one was 87 playing only 8 minutes a game.

Portland went to the playoffs the next 4 years with Tom Owens taking Walton's place (including the year after Walton left) but never won a series.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#32 » by penbeast0 » Tue Mar 5, 2024 12:55 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:Vote 1 - Adrian Dantley
Vote 2 - Allen Iverson
Nomination 1 - Sidney Moncrief
Nomination 2 - Larry Nance


Looking at the controversy with dantley leaving DET and them winning the championship following his departure, and it seems overblown. Dantley’s averages in the '88 finals (loss) are as follows:

21.3 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.3 APG, .6 SPG, 57.3% FG, 85.6% FT, 67.6% TS, 127 ORTG

Games 6 and 7 of the 88 finals were decided by a total of 4 points, and this was with a substandard game 7 by the injured isiah thomas. If he’s healthy, they very well could’ve won the title that year. I don’t hold the turn of events against dantley all that much relative to general perception.

Some great research here by Moonbeam on Dantley and other star SFs of the 80s:

Moonbeam wrote:I love looking at these guys because most of my favorite players are small forwards, and it was such an exciting time to watch, as these guys were each capable of amazing offensive outbursts.

One thing I've taken a hard look at is how to weigh up offensive statistics in the context of team offense. There has been a fair bit of discussion in the Top 100 poll about how to gauge individual performance based on team performance (e.g. Garnett's Minny teams did not generally excel on defense, how to compare Kidd's team offenses to Payton's given teammate quality), so I tried to come up with a rough model of expectations for team offense.

I used offensive win shares as the basis for this analysis. I know many aren't happy with OWS, but on a team-level, it is very strongly correlated with offensive rating, which is a good measure of overall team offensive performance. I looked at all regular season data from 1977-2014 to come up with a set of aging curves to encompass different types of peak shapes. I've used five different levels of peak sharpness and five different peak ages (21, 24, 27, 30, and 33), which makes it possible to model a player's career based on OWS/48, like this:

Image

This is a very simple approach, but I wanted something specific enough to broadly capture the relationship between offensive production and aging, but not too specific as to produce perfect models - I'm interested in the deviations from expectations, after all, so I'm happy with a bit of noise. :)

Based on these curves of expected OWS/48, I then looked at team offense relative to expectations as judged by total OWS. I'm still looking to road-test this analysis, so if you know of any instances where you felt a team overachieved or underachieved its talent level, I'd be eager to check it against my model!

I parsed out performance relative to expectations for each of these players plus Larry Bird (in >28 MPG seasons) and their respective teammates as a whole. Why 28 MPG? I wanted to include enough seasons to get a big picture view, plus I wanted to avoid discontinuities where I could (e.g. Bernard King's 1988 season). Here are the resulting plots of player OWS, player expected OWS, teammate ("help") OWS and expected teammate OWS:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Over this span, here are the MP-weighted averages for player OWS, % of team OWS, both rate and raw difference of help OWS to expectations:

Code: Select all

Player   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre  5.112  0.166    1.018      +0.428
Bird     7.429  0.220    1.048      +1.056
Dantley  8.803  0.394    0.844      -2.155
English  6.536  0.246    1.016      +0.307
Johnson  5.954  0.253    1.040      +0.636
King     4.466  0.269    0.887      -1.413
Wilkins  6.084  0.255    1.015      +0.260
Worthy   5.065  0.155    1.116      +2.809


On the surface, it looks like Dantley (and to a lesser extent, King) may be getting their Win Shares somewhat at the expense of teammates, while Bird and Worthy are associated with boosts for their teammates. How much praise (or blame) should be apportioned for performance of teammates is up for debate, but I think it at least provides a framework for comparison.

Taking a look at the 5-year intervals in the OP:

Code: Select all

Player  Years   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre 84-88   5.920  0.187    1.041      +1.005
Bird    84-88   9.933  0.302    0.989      -0.257
Dantley 80-84  11.213  0.553    1.083      +0.606
English 82-86   7.849  0.268    1.026      +0.548
Johnson 79-83   7.192  0.275    1.057      +0.984
King    81-85   6.675  0.323    0.919      -1.268
Wilkins 86-90   7.835  0.270    1.158      +2.891
Worthy  86-90   6.465  0.180    1.181      +4.496


Dantley is clearly the leader in both OWS and percentage of team offense (some of those supporting casts in Utah look dreadful), but perhaps he didn't provide the "lift" as others (or worse, perhaps his presence deflated his teammates offense). If we split his career into phases, it seems his early career is where his teammates fared the worst (0.731 rate, fit issues with Lakers?), while in Utah they performed nearly to (awful) expectations (0.968 rate), while in Detroit during 87-88, the rate fell to 0.801 (problems of fit with Isiah?), and across 89-90, it was 0.935.

I don't think Worthy's help numbers are attributable to him so much as they are to Magic, but he clearly fit into Showtime quite well. Wilkins looks like he could have provided decent lift across 86-90, and Aguirre's apparent issues with teammates did not seem to affect his teams' offenses.

I've got H2H stats I can post later, but I thought I'd put this out there as it's a fascinating comparison for me. :)


Entire discussion here:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=41264223#p41264223


Interestingly, in the 5 year interval, Dantley is positive and Larry Bird is negative (and King) though Worthy's number is great in both. As my perception of Bird is someone who helps his teammates considerably, I have to take this with a bit of skepticism.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#33 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Mar 5, 2024 6:09 pm

Personal vote:

Induction 1: Bob Cousy
Induction 2: Cliff Hagan


I have mixed feelings about all of these guys but it's really easy to make the case for Cousy having the most complete career out of any of the candidates. I went into this project with Hagan ahead of Cousy and I'm still torn on that, but there's no doubt that the Celtic dynasty swore by Cousy while the Hawks treated Hagan as a guy with clear flaws.

Nomination 1: Jayson Tatum
Nomination 2: Sidney Moncrief


Continuing to support Tatum, though I quite like a number of the other candidates. Among the top contenders, I'll give the nod to Moncrief whose prime excellence really pops to me.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Deadline ~5am PST, 3/5/24) 

Post#34 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Mar 5, 2024 6:16 pm

Tallies:

Induction 1:
Dantley - 2 (beast, Clyde)
Iverson - 3 (trelos, AEnigma, Ohayo)
Walton - 3 (ShaqA, HBK, LA Bird)
Cousy - 5 (iggy, trex, eminence, OSNB, Doc)

No majority, eliminating Dantley:

Iverson - 1 (Clyde)
Walton - 0 (none)
Cousy - 1 (beast)

Eliminating Walton:

Iverson - 1 (ShaqA)
Cousy - 1 (LA Bird)
none - 1 (HBK)

Bob Cousy 7, Allen Iverson 5
Bob Cousy is Inducted at #79.

Nomination 1:
Sam - 1 (beast)
Nance - 2 (trelos, LA Bird)
Horford - 3 (AEnigma, ShaqA, Ohayo)
Moncrief - 3 (iggy, OSNB, Clyde)
Parke - 1 (trex)
Davies - 1 (eminence)
Tatum - 1 (Doc)
none - 1 (HBK)

No majority, runoff between Horford & Moncrief:

Horford - 0 (none)
Moncrief - 2 (LA Bird, Doc)
neither - 5 (beast, trelos, trex, eminence, HBK)

Sidney Moncrief 5, Al Horford 3
Sidney Moncrief is added to Nominee list.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #79 (Bob Cousy) 

Post#35 » by AEnigma » Mon May 13, 2024 12:28 am

Image

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