VW = ? (Rookie Season Thread)

[The Master]

Defensively, Wemby is [probably*] on borderline DPOTY-level as for now, his boxscore (the best rebounding-blocking combo in the league) and net rating (+9 and ~top5 defense with him on a floor since he starts as a center) are great - his individual defense is a work in progress. He definitely lacks fundamentals, strength and awareness - obviously, he's not bad per se and would be better within better defensive system, his god-given reach is very helpful in that regard (matchup against Jokic and these 3-4 blocks), but I also believe his individual D on contender-level team, when matchups actually matter, would be more scrutinized. I don't consider Gobert as necessarily strong individual defender, and yet his matchup stats against these 'heavy hitters' look a tier better.

So yeah, objectively, with Wemby 1) playing for 20% of the season out of position as a power forward with pretty mediocre production), 2) him not being a strong-strong individual defender - I don't think he has any realistic DPOTY case. He won't win regardless as his record is atrocious for awards contending.

* probably, because estimations based on level of play in tanker-level team should be taken with a grain of salt.

[The Master]

Okay, since I've already updated this thread couple of times and tomorrow playoffs begins, I've decided to sum up Wemby's rookie year briefly. Nothing groundbreaking here, sorry to bother, but it may be definitely something I'll look at in 5-10 years from now to look at his development from broader perspective.

At this point, it looks like it is a given he'll be 2nd in DPOTY voting and first in ROTY voting, him getting any All-NBA noms seems unlikely.

Defense





Hard to say something that hasn't been already said: slow start as power forward (safety-like role on defense as a help defender closer to the perimeter) not only offensively, but defensively as well - since he was introduced to the starting lineup as a center (early December), his BPG numbers sky-rocketed and his DRTG-metrics are ridiculous (top5 D with him on a floor out of bottom-5 defense without him on a court). It's far from perfect estimation of 'defensive' boxscore production (Jokic case), but +4 DBPM (Wemby since December) is higher than any season of Hakeem, for example.

Positive surprise: Wembanyama being +30% DRB player - I was wondering before the season whether he'll be able to keep up his Euro numbers with his frame against NBA-level athletes, it turned out that he is and this is a fantastic result for an undeveloped physically rookie, Sabonis-Jokic were ~25% at the beginning.

Point of emphasis for the next season: individual defense (and PNR D) - Wembanyama was 1.02 PPP on post up D and 0.9 PPP on isolations - not necessarily bad, but definitely not a DPOTY-level (in this regard). He definitely lacked lower body strength as well as fundamentals (multiple times out of position footwork-wise while defending AD/Jokic/Sengun in the latter part of the season). Gobert was much better in those metrics (0.75 and 0.73) what corresponds with an eye-test, and besides overall team performance - I guess that's the 2nd argument in DPOTY discussions in favor of RG (as for now).

Offense:





Here as well it's hard to say something that hasn't been said throughout the year, so two notes (that were also discussed frequently):

1. His offensive numbers are 'deflated' by playing in suboptimal conditions as his numbers with Tre Jones on a floor (with Wemby playing as a center) were already great with now full season sample:



Some part of the next year's progress of Victor will be based purely on playing with Tre Jones-level point guard (I suppose), as a center, for majority of VWs playing time. I suppose these stats are 'referential' for next season's development of VW more than overall stats of his.

2. Positive surprise: passing

Rookie performance by selected big men:



Obviously, VW played on an awful team with high turnover level (>5 TOV/100 possessions), but him effectively running plays as a ballhandler in transition / PNR ballhandler in inverted pick and rolls was a positive surprise (his vision and court awareness - as well).

Wembanyama is frequently compared on offense to KD - rookie KD was 3.5 AST/4.2 TOV (worse ratio than VW: 6.2 AST/5.7TOV, on much lower passing volume) and in his best season was 8.3 AST/4.5 TOV. I think this is something that Webanyama should top at one point of his career both in assists volume (he'll be a much bigger threat in these handoff possessions/better gravity as an inside scorer) and turnovers (smaller load as a ballhandler).

Giannis as a sophomore was 4.2 AST/3.5 TOV/100 possessions and this year (his peak season) was 8.9 AST/4.7 TOV/6.5 APG in regular season.

Embiid as a rookie was (per100 poss) 4.1 AST/7.3 TOV - and this half-season under Nurse improved to the level of 8.2 AST/5.6 TOV (per100poss). Sengun as a rookie was 5.9 AST/4.6 TOV and in his 3rd year, he's 7.4 AST/3.8 TOV - D. Sabonis was, respectively, 2.5 AST/2.5 TOV and now is 11.2 AST/4.5 TOV.

It's not a given VW will become Sabonis-level passer (although it's not impossible), but it seems his realistic floor is ~7apg player in his prime. Obviously, it will depend a lot on roster and its characteristics alongside him, I'm talking more about his ~level as a passer.

Point of emphasis for the next season: shooting - Wemby is still difficult to project precisely, he'll be definitely 'very good' at least (80 FT% with 33% 3pt on high volume is a great production for 19/20yo center) shooting-wise, but his splits are tricky:

Catch and Shoot: 62/219 (28.3%)
Pull Ups: 63/168 (37.5%)
Other: 3/6 (50.0%)

It's obviously bizarre for a center to have 9%-better splits from pull up 3s (more difficult shot) than spot up 3s on similar volumes.

We will see next year if: 1) his pull ups numbers were a fluke, 2) his spot up 3s numbers were a fluke, 3) he'll be able to improve his spot up shooting if it wasn't a fluke. 37/38% from spot up 3s with these great pull ups numbers on its own would improve his scoring by 2-3 TS%.

[Colbinii]

While I was impressed by Wemby's rookie season beyond my wildest expectations, I will forever wish we could have seen Wemby on a competitive team as a rookie. Imagine if Houston won the lottery. Could you imagine how good they would have been even this year?

It would have been fun watching him play meaningful basketball because he clearly cares.

[homecourtloss]

Spoiler:

Okay, since I've already updated this thread couple of times and tomorrow playoffs begins, I've decided to sum up Wemby's rookie year briefly. Nothing groundbreaking here, sorry to bother, but it may be definitely something I'll look at in 5-10 years from now to look at his development from broader perspective.

At this point, it looks like it is a given he'll be 2nd in DPOTY voting and first in ROTY voting, him getting any All-NBA noms seems unlikely.

Defense





Hard to say something that hasn't been already said: slow start as power forward (safety-like role on defense as a help defender closer to the perimeter) not only offensively, but defensively as well - since he was introduced to the starting lineup as a center (early December), his BPG numbers sky-rocketed and his DRTG-metrics are ridiculous (top5 D with him on a floor out of bottom-5 defense without him on a court). It's far from perfect estimation of 'defensive' boxscore production (Jokic case), but +4 DBPM (Wemby since December) is higher than any season of Hakeem, for example.

Positive surprise: Wembanyama being +30% DRB player - I was wondering before the season whether he'll be able to keep up his Euro numbers with his frame against NBA-level athletes, it turned out that he is and this is a fantastic result for an undeveloped physically rookie, Sabonis-Jokic were ~25% at the beginning.

Point of emphasis for the next season: individual defense (and PNR D) - Wembanyama was 1.02 PPP on post up D and 0.9 PPP on isolations - not necessarily bad, but definitely not a DPOTY-level (in this regard). He definitely lacked lower body strength as well as fundamentals (multiple times out of position footwork-wise while defending AD/Jokic/Sengun in the latter part of the season). Gobert was much better in those metrics (0.75 and 0.73) what corresponds with an eye-test, and besides overall team performance - I guess that's the 2nd argument in DPOTY discussions in favor of RG (as for now).

Offense:





Here as well it's hard to say something that hasn't been said throughout the year, so two notes (that were also discussed frequently):

1. His offensive numbers are 'deflated' by playing in suboptimal conditions as his numbers with Tre Jones on a floor (with Wemby playing as a center) were already great with now full season sample:



Some part of the next year's progress of Victor will be based purely on playing with Tre Jones-level point guard (I suppose), as a center, for majority of VWs playing time. I suppose these stats are 'referential' for next season's development of VW more than overall stats of his.

2. Positive surprise: passing

Rookie performance by selected big men:



Obviously, VW played on an awful team with high turnover level (>5 TOV/100 possessions), but him effectively running plays as a ballhandler in transition / PNR ballhandler in inverted pick and rolls was a positive surprise (his vision and court awareness - as well).

Wembanyama is frequently compared on offense to KD - rookie KD was 3.5 AST/4.2 TOV (worse ratio than VW: 6.2 AST/5.7TOV, on much lower passing volume) and in his best season was 8.3 AST/4.5 TOV. I think this is something that Webanyama should top at one point of his career both in assists volume (he'll be a much bigger threat in these handoff possessions/better gravity as an inside scorer) and turnovers (smaller load as a ballhandler).

Giannis as a sophomore was 4.2 AST/3.5 TOV/100 possessions and this year (his peak season) was 8.9 AST/4.7 TOV/6.5 APG in regular season.

Embiid as a rookie was (per100 poss) 4.1 AST/7.3 TOV - and this half-season under Nurse improved to the level of 8.2 AST/5.6 TOV (per100poss). Sengun as a rookie was 5.9 AST/4.6 TOV and in his 3rd year, he's 7.4 AST/3.8 TOV - D. Sabonis was, respectively, 2.5 AST/2.5 TOV and now is 11.2 AST/4.5 TOV.

It's not a given VW will become Sabonis-level passer (although it's not impossible), but it seems his realistic floor is ~7apg player in his prime. Obviously, it will depend a lot on roster and its characteristics alongside him, I'm talking more about his ~level as a passer.

Point of emphasis for the next season: shooting - Wemby is still difficult to project precisely, he'll be definitely 'very good' at least (80 FT% with 33% 3pt on high volume is a great production for 19/20yo center) shooting-wise, but his splits are tricky:

Catch and Shoot: 62/219 (28.3%)
Pull Ups: 63/168 (37.5%)
Other: 3/6 (50.0%)

It's obviously bizarre for a center to have 9%-better splits from pull up 3s (more difficult shot) than spot up 3s on similar volumes.

We will see next year if: 1) his pull ups numbers were a fluke, 2) his spot up 3s numbers were a fluke, 3) he'll be able to improve his spot up shooting if it wasn't a fluke. 37/38% from spot up 3s with these great pull ups numbers on its own would improve his scoring by 2-3 TS%.

Great post, especially pertaining to how he began adjusting his game slightly about two months into the season and began to read the game much better showing a good bball IQ mentored by GoAT coach. He also looked physically stronger to me by season’s end.

His last 45 games:

29.5 mpg, 23.2/10.7/4.4/3.9 on 58.9% TS, 25% Assist %, 30.4% DREB

+.7 ON, +7.6 ON-OFF

I wish this wasn’t an Olympics year, and he could just work on his game and strength and conditioning. All signs point to a monster second season.