2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[AEnigma]

Floors me that the discussion is about the theoretical predictability of SRS carrying over into postseason… and then when it is brought up that some of these SRS results are brief one-off aberrations, that gets dismissed because of course it is tough to extend high-end team performance the longer you go. Sure, SRS can tell us all these contradictions that can be identified by people watching team development, but why bother with that when on a broad scale we know SRS has a good enough correlation and therefore no further analysis past basketball-reference is really necessary.

[HadAnEffectHere]

None of the top five SRS teams even made the Finals last year, and the Celtics were the only one to make the conference finals. Over the past 20 postseasons, the #1 SRS team has won 7 times (2005, 2007, 2008, 2014, 2015, 2017). It is a better marker than having the most wins (6 times) or having the MVP (4 times), but telling how all people seem to be able to do with the Celtics is blandly say they are 10 SRS and therefore by rule should be favoured over the western conference representative (again, this is a separate thought from them having the best odds because they are the most likely team to reach the Finals).

The Nuggets didn't need to try at all last year because the West was so bad so they put forward no effort in the regular season.

The top 5 teams in the regular season from point differential were

Boston: +6.5, lost in the ECF due to freak shooting luck from Miami
Cleveland: +5.4, lost in first round because team composition sucked and could not adjust to teams taking advantage of non-shooting PFs and small guards.
76ers: +4.3, lost in the 2nd round to the Celtics because Embiid was hurt.
Grizzlies: +3.9, team was also badly suited for postseason due to lack of shooting, but lost in the first round in large part because Adams and Clark had major injuries right before the postseason.
Bucks: +3.6, lost in the 1st round to the Heat due to Giannis being hurt and freak shooting luck from Miami

First of all, none of those teams were close to Boston this year.

Second of all, Boston has no obvious playoff basketball issues like the Grizzlies and Cavs. Their starting lineup's worst shooter is Kristaps Porzingis, their worst defender is Jaylen Brown, and their smallest guy is Jrue Holiday. Their roster avoids all of the weak link pitfalls that plague a lot of great regular season teams. They do have an issue because they don't have an actual superstar on their roster, but they are the favorites because their individual shooting and defense is ridiculously good.

It's very possible for the Celtics to lose in the Finals because

1. The Nuggets, Wolves, and Thunder are really good.
2. Bad shooting luck for Boston could happen.
3. Bad injury luck for Boston could happen.

[AEnigma]

We agree on #1 (and #2 and #3 are always true), but they have at least a 3+ SRS advantage over all three of those teams. With that type of advantage, if you take SRS at face value, the Celtics should win the Finals pretty comfortably. 3-4 SRS is the approximate gap we saw in the 2023 Finals, the 2020 Finals, the 2014 Finals, the 2002 Finals…

And if they do so, I will recognise them as a team that dominated the league from start to finish. All I am saying is that I do not expect that because I think their SRS pretty significantly overstates their actual postseason quality.

[Special_Puppy]

We agree on #1 (and #2 and #3 are always true), but they have at least a 3+ SRS advantage over all three of those teams. With that type of advantage, if you take SRS at face value, the Celtics should win the Finals pretty comfortably. 3-4 SRS is the approximate gap we saw in the 2023 Finals, the 2020 Finals, the 2014 Finals, the 2002 Finals…

And if they do so, I will recognise them as a team that dominated the league from start to finish. All I am saying is that I do not expect that because I think their SRS pretty significantly overstates their actual postseason quality.

Where does most of your skepticism come from? Coaching? The lack of a true Megastar?

[Dr Positivity]

The Celtics are the perfect team to be overrated by regular season stats, they had the best offensive season of all time but lack versatility beyond shooting 3s and their #1 best player on that end isn't as dominant as a Jokic.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Celtics are the perfect team to be overrated by regular season stats, they had the best offensive season of all time but lack versatility beyond shooting 3s and their #1 best player on that end isn't as dominant as a Jokic.

"Perfect to be overrated by regular season stats" are teams with tiny guards that get exploited or non-shooters that get exploited and the Celtics have neither of these issues.

The Celtics main issue is that Tatum is a fringe top 10 player instead of a top 5 player so we'll see if a team without a superstar can win a title against good competition just due to elite shooting and defense from all starters.

(the 2022 Warriors were arguably a team without a superstar but ehh)

Then again, it's possible Jamal Murray is hurt or worn down by the Finals and the Celtics cruise because the Nuggets' depth is pretty bad and the Celtics play no one before the Finals.

[ronnymac2]

The Celtics are the perfect team to be overrated by regular season stats, they had the best offensive season of all time but lack versatility beyond shooting 3s and their #1 best player on that end isn't as dominant as a Jokic.

Why did TOR trade Precious Achiuwa?

This second quarter is a great example of the defensive impact he can have. And in the REG SEA, I've seen him check LeBron, Embiid, and point guards. Why get rid of him?

[ronnymac2]

Also, I answered all these questions about Boston, like, two or three pages ago.

1. You're welcome.
2. One thing I want to add is that Bert Stephens is an overrated GM. He builds a team of chuckers and gets lauded for it. They've accomplished nothing. Let me repeat...the core of this current 10 SRS team lost to an injury-plagued 8th seed last year.

[Special_Puppy]

Also, I answered all these questions about Boston, like, two or three pages ago.

1. You're welcome.
2. One thing I want to add is that Bert Stephens is an overrated GM. He builds a team of chuckers and gets lauded for it. They've accomplished nothing. Let me repeat...the core of this current 10 SRS team lost to an injury-plagued 8th seed last year.

They've made the Eastern Conference Finals like 6 times now and have made the finals once. Only team that has had more post-season success since 2016 are the Warriors

[tsherkin]

Why did TOR trade Precious Achiuwa?

Redundancy and offense.

[GSP]

Ppl are always so quick to criticize Thibs for minutes but dont point out his strengths as a coach. He is badly outcoaching Carlisle whos always been overrated Imo. There is no reason Knicks should be in this series after losing Randle, Og, Robinson and Bojan nvm up 20 in a game.

[ronnymac2]

Also, I answered all these questions about Boston, like, two or three pages ago.

1. You're welcome.
2. One thing I want to add is that Bert Stephens is an overrated GM. He builds a team of chuckers and gets lauded for it. They've accomplished nothing. Let me repeat...the core of this current 10 SRS team lost to an injury-plagued 8th seed last year.

They've made the Eastern Conference Finals like 6 times now and have made the finals once. Only team that has had more post-season success since 2016 are the Warriors

Relative expectations. Obviously any team would like to enjoy the success they've had. You're not wrong about post-season success since 2016 (Miami is arguable, but still, I'd be arguing semantics at that point...BOS is up there is the main point).

But the way people talk about this guy, and this team...you'd think they were dominating the league. You would think they were ACTUALLY the GSW.

[ronnymac2]

Why did TOR trade Precious Achiuwa?

Redundancy and offense.

Certainly agree about his limitations on offense, but can you expound on "redundancy"?

1. I'm legitimately not familiar with TOR's 2024 roster.
2. TOR was 25th in defense in 2024. I would assume they don't have effective defenders in their frontcourt.

[Texas Chuck]

So while my band continues to play the hits..... We need to be talking more about Jalen freaking Brunson. Respect to Hart and DDV and Hartenstein for playing really hard, but this supporting cast is thin and limited. What Brunson is doing is absolutely remarkable.

I get why Boston is a heavy paper favorite with 3 tries to win one and then NY missing so many key guys, but I'm writing off this Knicks team like I write off a Heat team, never.

Brunson is just so so good.

[tsherkin]

Why did TOR trade Precious Achiuwa?

Redundancy and offense.

Certainly agree about his limitations on offense, but can you expound on "redundancy"?

1. I'm legitimately not familiar with TOR's 2024 roster.
2. TOR was 25th in defense in 2024. I would assume they don't have effective defenders in their frontcourt.

Oh no, we traded all of them away, lol. We'd stacked a whole bunch of similar bodies with limited skills, so Masai appears to have gone about blowing it all up and trying a new build around Scottie Barnes.

[ronnymac2]

Ppl are always so quick to criticize Thibs for minutes but dont point out his strengths as a coach. He is badly outcoaching Carlisle whos always been overrated Imo. There is no reason Knicks should be in this series after losing Randle, Og, Robinson and Bojan nvm up 20 in a game.

I must say, IND sending a second defender at Brunson as he crosses halfcourt since the 1st quarter is one of the dumber defensive strategies I've seen this postseason. And like...it's definitely not working either.

[tsherkin]

So while my band continues to play the hits..... We need to be talking more about Jalen freaking Brunson. Respect to Hart and DDV and Hartenstein for playing really hard, but this supporting cast is thin and limited. What Brunson is doing is absolutely remarkable.

I get why Boston is a heavy paper favorite with 3 tries to win one and then NY missing so many key guys, but I'm writing off this Knicks team like I write off a Heat team, never.

Brunson is just so so good.

Yeah, he's going bananas. Just absolutely torching them. Of course, Indiana isn't much of a defense, but this started well before that, heh. He's been a dynamo.

[ronnymac2]

Redundancy and offense.

Certainly agree about his limitations on offense, but can you expound on "redundancy"?

1. I'm legitimately not familiar with TOR's 2024 roster.
2. TOR was 25th in defense in 2024. I would assume they don't have effective defenders in their frontcourt.

Oh no, we traded all of them away, lol. We'd stacked a whole bunch of similar bodies with limited skills, so Masai appears to have gone about blowing it all up and trying a new build around Scottie Barnes.

Mmm, okay, understood. He's a pretty good GM, so we'll see how it plays out. As a NYK fan, I'm definitely grateful about having Precious.

[tsherkin]

Mmm, okay, understood. He's a pretty good GM, so we'll see how it plays out.

I'll give him a minute, for sure. You can't make every correct move. He had a notion, it didn't pan out and he's trying again. We also have a title in the last half decade, so... Not too much kvetching from me, heh.

As a NYK fan, I'm definitely grateful about having Precious.

Honestly, I think that trade was good for both teams. I'm happy about it.

[AEnigma]

We agree on #1 (and #2 and #3 are always true), but they have at least a 3+ SRS advantage over all three of those teams. With that type of advantage, if you take SRS at face value, the Celtics should win the Finals pretty comfortably. 3-4 SRS is the approximate gap we saw in the 2023 Finals, the 2020 Finals, the 2014 Finals, the 2002 Finals…

And if they do so, I will recognise them as a team that dominated the league from start to finish. All I am saying is that I do not expect that because I think their SRS pretty significantly overstates their actual postseason quality.

Where does most of your skepticism come from? Coaching? The lack of a true Megastar?

Simplest is to say it is the combination of both. What you want them to be is the Pistons or the 2014 Spurs, right? And the clearest disadvantage relative to all those teams is their coaching. Honestly there is a stronger trend for champions to have high-end coaches than to have top 3-5 players (only coaching exception which comes to mind right now is the 1980 Lakers), and the Celtics seem to have neither.

Now, Mazzulla is a second-year coach who has not needed to take any especially creative approaches through these past two rounds. I would not be shocked to discover he has made meaningful strides since last year. Although I am skeptical, he could have his team ready if a western opponent finds prolonged success against their default lineups and scheme, or otherwise he could have his team preemptively ready to attack certain schematic weaknesses among those western conference teams. I do think they have the personnel (if healthy) to give all three western conference teams trouble defensively, so if that happens, it makes up for some of my abstracted offensive concerns (which are ultimately more on the players).

Those offensive concerns are more about reliability. Look at what Shai did this past game. When most of the team is cold — it happens, whether because of good coverage or just unlucky variance — the idea of having an offensive superstar is that they should be able to take the ball for themselves and either create offence on their own (as Shai did) or at least continue finding high value shots for your team and trust that those shots start going in (more Magic/Nash, where both were strong shot-makers but would only take that approach as a last resort). That is not Tatum, and when I say that, I do not mean Tatum cannot possibly have games where he does that, but you cannot rely on him having those games.

And again I will be clear that teams do not need an all-time shot-maker. The 2014 Spurs did not exactly have any one player I would call more reliable than 2024 Tatum. The 2004 Pistons had Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups, and while Billups had a stupendous Finals and Rip has been grossly under-appreciated in how he was able to keep their offence afloat in the conference finals, I would not call either more reliable sources of offence than Tatum. I would entertain the argument, but I am definitely not committed to it or anything.

So in some sense that is their goal, right. I already talked about how I think there is a significant coaching gap compared to those teams, but it is not like Larry Brown was some brilliant offensive coach, and Gregg Popovich was not the one making passes. The vision for these Celtics is you have this dynamic defence — albeit less so than in 2022 with Williams — and a lot of solid offensive players who are in totality unguardable. Jaylen Brown has his limitations but can make shots. Porzingis can give you a good game and is at least consistent. We have seen Derrick White briefly go on some heaters. Jrue… does not really thrive as a postseason scorer, but he is at least a smart passer capable of making open shots, so it should not be a case of the 2024 Suns where the team inevitably degrades into impotent isolation attempts.

I guess the skepticism on that end is whether this historic +8 relative offence, on par with the best Steve Nash offences (2004 Mavericks gimmick excepted), is actually that good, and capable of being that good while outperforming the other team (if you tell me a Nuggets/Celtics finals ends with both teams posting a 120 offensive rating, are any of us surprised?). I will stress I do not think it is wrong to call them the best team or anything. They have the personnel to challenge the Nuggets on both ends, they are dramatically more experienced than the Thunder, and they are more balanced and less vulnerable to prolonged stagnation than the Wolves. I think they are the best team. But my stance is that the gap is overstated by the SRS (and I could be wrong). My stance is that the Malone/Murray/Jokic Nuggets have shown a level of postseason resilience and adaptability over the years that helps them punch above their SRS weight… and that any team that beats them will need to showcase impressive resilience and adaptability of their own, at which point maybe I will be less worried about the Wolves’ offence being insufficiently resilient or the Thunder not being able to adapt as naturally as you see with veteran coaches and players.

I am not even that opposed to someone stating that the Celtics deserve to be commanding favourites because of concrete reasons beyond just the cold point differential. I have yet to really see it, and I think it is a point of concern that I have not even seen it from their own fanbase, but it is not as if I have watched dozens of Celtics games this year, so I acknowledge I could be letting prior assessments weigh too heavily on their likely approach in a series against a legitimately good team (which we might not see until the Finals).

But please do not just gesture at a number. I can see the number, and I am well aware of the number’s history. If you are happy with the number, great; odds are you will be vindicated on some level, and if not, hey, you can always chalk it up to bad variance, right. However, for me, the number is not instructive in itself, it is not in itself adding anything I do not know or might have overlooked, and it is not a stand-in for how the team will perform in the Finals.

Separately, I also just think these SRS advantages matter less now. When you increase the variance of a sport, you increase the potential for upsets. There will be a reverse sweep. There will be 8/1 upsets at an increasing rate, there will be more 3-1 comebacks, and there will be more 5-8 seeded teams in the Finals. Basketball is the most stable of the major North American sports… but it will likely never be as stable as it used to be.