Djoker wrote:lessthanjake wrote:Djoker wrote:So I ended up adding the estimates for 1986 (3 games) and 1995 (10 games).
Total Playoff On-Off per 100 Possessions with 1985, 1986 + 1988-1993 + 1995-1998
- On: +7.55
- Off: -7.16
- On-Off: +14.70
This number includes Jordan's entire playoff career except 1987 (3 games).
EDIT: I checked the numbers in the OP and I think 1985 Playoffs has a mistake. The OFF number is -75.6 per 100.
The numbers I get when including the rough 1995 estimate (using the *worse* of the two 1995 estimates—which makes a big difference since the different estimates using the two charts that include 1995 spit out *super* different results) are similar to that but slightly different. I get as follows:
- On: +7.43
- Off: -7.51
- On-Off: +14.94
Given the various forms of error in the data, these are functionally the same estimates though. I assume yours are slightly different because of amalgamating the numbers slightly differently (or perhaps because of the 1985 thing—discussed below). Either way, though, we’re basically at +15 on-off and only without 1987. And, again, that’s using the by far worse estimate for 1995 (which is so different that, for instance, the “off” value in 1995 is almost +20 in what I used above but more like +8 if we used the other 1995 derivation we could use).
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As for the 1985 playoffs, I don’t think my OP is wrong. I think what’s happening is you’re getting to a different result because you’re not using the “on” possessions data that we actually have for that playoffs (which leads to a different number of estimated “on” and “off” possessions than if we just used the minutes and made an equal-pace assumption). So, basically, here’s where the number comes from:
We know from the Squared data that the Bulls were +10 with Jordan on the court. And since they were -22 overall, that means they were -32 with Jordan off the court. If we add up the offensive and defensive possessions in the Squared data, we get an estimate of 360 possessions with Jordan on the court. If you go game-by-game and add up the pace BBREF reports for each game, you get an estimate of 387.2 total possessions in the series. Which means we can estimate 27.2 possessions with Jordan off the floor (which, if anything, might actually be high because BBREF generally gives slightly higher numbers of possessions than Squared, and we’re getting the “on” possessions from Squared). Given that they were -32 in those possessions, that gets us to an “off” estimate of -117.65 (because (-32/27.2)*100 = -117.65).
Yea I used the worse 1995 estimate too, the -1.9 ON and +19.4 OFF.
For 1985 it totally escaped me that squared2020 tracked the exact possessions. I used the BRef pace. Yes your number makes sense. In fact the 1985 ON-OFF is the most reliable after the official data for 1997 and 1998 postseasons because the possessions were tracked.
I will recalculate everything again. I don't understand why my ON value is a bit off from yours. It shouldn't happen.
Totally possible I made a data-entry error! Also, those are close enough that it could also just be differences in where we rounded stuff across all the various data points that go into the calculation (I tended to go multiple decimal points deep both for the “on” and “off” values and also for the possession estimates).
