2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[falcolombardi]

Nothing amazes me more than this board and its obsession on evaluating players not on their own play but rather on the perceived quality of their teammates.

This will never ever make sense to me.

Also, I really hate Mike Conley getting the Sam Cassell treatment here. Where instead of focusing on the reality that he's a good player clearly helping his team in meaningful ways, we describe him solely by his age to justify our narrative of bad teammates because we think that's the best way to evaluate individual players.

I also think we are wildly overreacting to one game. Burying Jokic and the Nuggets isn't something I'm at all prepared to do after one game. I'm taking nothing away from Minnesota who has been good all year and great in the playoffs. But Denver is a legit defending champion here.

I love conley, i mentioned his age to point out he is not giving minnesota some unfairly stacked cast against jokic if that makes sense

[Dutchball97]

Not trying to be petty here but this is a wildly lower than the (admittedly unfair often) standard best in the world players usually get held to

Having a worse bench and maybe slightly worse starters is usually not accepted as a excuse for the top 1 player losing to the ...top 10? Player in the playoffs no matter what for the past 15 years

Like coming into the plauyoffs nobody argued towns/mcdaniels/ old ass conley were a way better trio than gordon/mpj/kcp and naz reid wouldnt usually be considered a unfair team difference

Hell, with previous top players (and yes i mostly mean lebron if it was not obvious) murray or gordon struggles woukd automatically get put on the top player fault

For all the talk of jokic as a goat tier contender this is a unusually lax standard to demand from him

A good bench is underrated imo and people are overlooking just how dreadfully lackluster Denver's bench. Even then I'm mostly putting this on Murray, Gordan and KCP not performing like what is expected of them. Sure Jokic didn't have his best game but even if he did would it have mattered, I'm not sure.

I personally don't think I blame GOAT tier players for losing to significantly more stacked teams. I don't hold it against Wilt he didn't beat the Celtics when he was on the Warriors, I don't blame Kareem for losing to the Blazers in 1977, I don't blame Jordan for not getting past the Pistons in the late 80s and I don't blame LeBron for not beating the superteam Celtics in 2008 and 2010, or for losing to the Spurs in 2014 and especially not against the 2017 and 2018 Warriors.

To be clear I do put scrutiny on LeBron for 2011 but that's because he lost with a better supporting cast. 2009 and 2015 are arguable in my eyes whether LeBron deserves to be blamed for those losses and even if he does it's not entirely his fault at the very least.

I also don't view Jokic on a GOAT trajectory, more like top 10, maybe that plays a role in how harsh I'd be too.

2009 lebron vs orlando is a contender for the bedt he has ever played
It would be insane to blame him for that one when 2010 is right there as a fine in a vacuum but underwhelming for him series

2015 was also lebron playing with a bad back and no scorer help

Saying that jokic has a way worse support cast, or even a way worse performing cast off 1 game is wild too

The Magic really weren't much deeper than the Cavs in 2009. LeBron having no scoring help in 2015 is also just not really true with Mozgov, Smith and Thompson averaging in the double figures.

I'm also not basing my take of the Timberwolves having a much better cast than the Nuggets off 1 game, that's a weird call considering everything I said was the case in their first round match ups and honestly most of the regular season as well.

In any case with my takes apparently being "insane" and "wild" I see where this going again and no thank you, that's it for my input on this. It's also possible to show a bit of respect when disagreeing with someone.

[falcolombardi]

A good bench is underrated imo and people are overlooking just how dreadfully lackluster Denver's bench. Even then I'm mostly putting this on Murray, Gordan and KCP not performing like what is expected of them. Sure Jokic didn't have his best game but even if he did would it have mattered, I'm not sure.

I personally don't think I blame GOAT tier players for losing to significantly more stacked teams. I don't hold it against Wilt he didn't beat the Celtics when he was on the Warriors, I don't blame Kareem for losing to the Blazers in 1977, I don't blame Jordan for not getting past the Pistons in the late 80s and I don't blame LeBron for not beating the superteam Celtics in 2008 and 2010, or for losing to the Spurs in 2014 and especially not against the 2017 and 2018 Warriors.

To be clear I do put scrutiny on LeBron for 2011 but that's because he lost with a better supporting cast. 2009 and 2015 are arguable in my eyes whether LeBron deserves to be blamed for those losses and even if he does it's not entirely his fault at the very least.

I also don't view Jokic on a GOAT trajectory, more like top 10, maybe that plays a role in how harsh I'd be too.

2009 lebron vs orlando is a contender for the bedt he has ever played
It would be insane to blame him for that one when 2010 is right there as a fine in a vacuum but underwhelming for him series

2015 was also lebron playing with a bad back and no scorer help

Saying that jokic has a way worse support cast, or even a way worse performing cast off 1 game is wild too

The Magic really weren't much deeper than the Cavs in 2009. LeBron having no scoring help in 2015 is also just not really true with Mozgov, Smith and Thompson averaging in the double figures.

I'm also not basing my take of the Timberwolves having a much better cast than the Nuggets off 1 game, that's a weird call considering everything I said was the case in their first round match ups and honestly most of the regular season as well.

In any case with my takes apparently being "insane" and "wild" I see where this going again and no thank you, that's it for my input on this. It's also possible to show a bit of respect when disagreeing with someone.

Saying "this is wild" "i think that is crazy" is am expression lf heavy disagreement, not a personal attack

Lets not do ettiqute policing like that pls, this is not that formal of a forum imo

And yes, 09 orlando players performed way better thsb cavs ones did by any measure

[Dutchball97]

2009 lebron vs orlando is a contender for the bedt he has ever played
It would be insane to blame him for that one when 2010 is right there as a fine in a vacuum but underwhelming for him series

2015 was also lebron playing with a bad back and no scorer help

Saying that jokic has a way worse support cast, or even a way worse performing cast off 1 game is wild too

The Magic really weren't much deeper than the Cavs in 2009. LeBron having no scoring help in 2015 is also just not really true with Mozgov, Smith and Thompson averaging in the double figures.

I'm also not basing my take of the Timberwolves having a much better cast than the Nuggets off 1 game, that's a weird call considering everything I said was the case in their first round match ups and honestly most of the regular season as well.

In any case with my takes apparently being "insane" and "wild" I see where this going again and no thank you, that's it for my input on this. It's also possible to show a bit of respect when disagreeing with someone.

Saying "this is wild" "i think that is crazy" is am expression lf heavy disagreement, not a personal attack

Lets not do ettiqute policing like that pls, this is not that formal of a forum imo

And yes, 09 orlando players performed way better thsb cavs ones did by any measure

LeBron discussions always get out of hand and I'm not interested in getting involved in that again. Starting off by calling an opinion I have about LeBron in 2009 insane is definitely a sign to me no good can come from continuing this.

[Colbinii]

The Magic really weren't much deeper than the Cavs in 2009. LeBron having no scoring help in 2015 is also just not really true with Mozgov, Smith and Thompson averaging in the double figures.

I'm also not basing my take of the Timberwolves having a much better cast than the Nuggets off 1 game, that's a weird call considering everything I said was the case in their first round match ups and honestly most of the regular season as well.

In any case with my takes apparently being "insane" and "wild" I see where this going again and no thank you, that's it for my input on this. It's also possible to show a bit of respect when disagreeing with someone.

Saying "this is wild" "i think that is crazy" is am expression lf heavy disagreement, not a personal attack

Lets not do ettiqute policing like that pls, this is not that formal of a forum imo

And yes, 09 orlando players performed way better thsb cavs ones did by any measure

LeBron discussions always get out of hand and I'm not interested in getting involved in that again. Starting off by calling an opinion I have about LeBron in 2009 insane is definitely a sign to me no good can come from continuing this.

Mozgov, Smith and Thompson aren't legitimate offensive pieces. They are strictly interchangeable complementary pieces with a low bar for replacement level offense.

[Doctor MJ]

So the #1 thing I feel like I need to say right now:

Colbini, eminence, and whoever else said this would be the year that the Wolves broke through to be a contender, you were right. My long-term skepticism toward the Wolves is being proven unduly cynical.

With that said, I still really feel like the rules with KAT remain the same:

In order to build a contender with KAT, you need to be able to play like a contender without KAT.

This is a team with two top players - Ant & Gobert - and we shouldn't mistake KAT as the foundational piece even if the franchise did indeed acquire the other players to try to make up for where KAT was lacking.

[OhayoKD]

Jokic might be the best player in the league but he's not some superhuman, which is just about what is necessary to get this Denver team past the Timberwolves imo. Denver lost their 6th and 7th man from their title run and simply didn't get any replacements at all. Reggie Jackson and Peyton Watson could barely be called rotation players last year and are being asked to do quite a bit now and it's not because they've suddenly made big jumps.

Then you've got KCP having an atrocious go off it on the offensive end so far this post-season, Gordon always makes himself useful but he can't seem to hit a shot outside the paint to save his life at the moment, while Murray somehow manages to consistently provide no value untill the second half. At least MPJ is popping off I guess.

As to the Timberwolves I'm well past the beginning to believe stage, at this point I don't know who is going to stop them from getting that ring. Anthony Edwards is a certified superstar in the play-offs, Gobert is far and away the best defensive player in the league, KAT is an absolutely unfair 3rd option and the only team who even comes close to their depth are the Celtics. If Denver turns this around or the Timberwolves burn out in the conference finals feel free to clown me but I honestly think this train won't stop before the finish line.

Not trying to be petty here but this is a wildly lower than the (admittedly unfair often) standard best in the world players usually get held to

Having a worse bench and maybe slightly worse starters is usually not accepted as a excuse for the top 1 player losing to the ...top 10? Player in the playoffs no matter what for the past 15 years

Like coming into the plauyoffs nobody argued towns/mcdaniels/ old ass conley were a way better trio than gordon/mpj/kcp and naz reid wouldnt usually be considered a unfair team difference

Hell, with previous top players (and yes i mostly mean lebron if it was not obvious) murray or gordon struggles woukd automatically get put on the top player fault

For all the talk of jokic as a goat tier contender this is a unusually lax standard to demand from him

You're basically saying we should see more people discredit Jokic, the clear #1 player in the world, because past casual fans were stupid? Not a great sell.

If people genuinely still think he's the "clear #1 player in the world" then he deserves more discrediting I think. You can argue it longer if you want to pretend the playoffs didn't happen, but as long as the playoffs mater 2023 is the only season Jokic has had a legitimate claim to that mantle.

[Doctor MJ]

Nothing amazes me more than this board and its obsession on evaluating players not on their own play but rather on the perceived quality of their teammates.

This will never ever make sense to me.

Also, I really hate Mike Conley getting the Sam Cassell treatment here. Where instead of focusing on the reality that he's a good player clearly helping his team in meaningful ways, we describe him solely by his age to justify our narrative of bad teammates because we think that's the best way to evaluate individual players.

I also think we are wildly overreacting to one game. Burying Jokic and the Nuggets isn't something I'm at all prepared to do after one game. I'm taking nothing away from Minnesota who has been good all year and great in the playoffs. But Denver is a legit defending champion here.

All wise thoughts here.

To your first observation:

Something I've come to realize with basketball player comparisons is that almost all of us have a tendency to try to use context to infer impact, and while this isn't in principle an unreasonable thing, in practice it reveals how unconfident we are in actually evaluating how good a player is just based on what we observe from him directly, and it leads to absurdities.

So with OKC this year, go in an MVP conversation where SGA is a candidate, Chet gets brought up to knock SGA, and in ROY it's the opposite. These actions on their own aren't absurd, but the focus on whoever we're not actually supposed to be focused on is absurd.

I should say there's a mainstream counterexample to this and that's the folks who just focus on a player's box score, or reduces the game to ringz. These approaches don't have the same absurdity, but they represent extreme over-simplistic thought.

Those of us in this particular absurd bucket, when we fall in there, generally graduated from the simpleton analysis, but then gotten stuck at an intermediate level of analysis.

While I'm personally always doing my best to find the right balance, and thus avoid being truly absurd, I can recognize limitations in my basketball sight which keep me from being better at this than I am.

[Dutchball97]

Not trying to be petty here but this is a wildly lower than the (admittedly unfair often) standard best in the world players usually get held to

Having a worse bench and maybe slightly worse starters is usually not accepted as a excuse for the top 1 player losing to the ...top 10? Player in the playoffs no matter what for the past 15 years

Like coming into the plauyoffs nobody argued towns/mcdaniels/ old ass conley were a way better trio than gordon/mpj/kcp and naz reid wouldnt usually be considered a unfair team difference

Hell, with previous top players (and yes i mostly mean lebron if it was not obvious) murray or gordon struggles woukd automatically get put on the top player fault

For all the talk of jokic as a goat tier contender this is a unusually lax standard to demand from him

You're basically saying we should see more people discredit Jokic, the clear #1 player in the world, because past casual fans were stupid? Not a great sell.

If people genuinely still think he's the "clear #1 player in the world" then he deserves more discrediting I think. You can argue it longer if you want to pretend the playoffs didn't happen, but as long as the playoffs mater 2023 is the only season Jokic has had a legitimate claim to that mantle.

Jokic won our POY for the 2022 season as well with 13 out of 16 first place votes. Even while I was 1 of 3 dissenting voices alongside Doctor MJ and Eminence, I don't think it's entirely fair to the other 13 voters to say Jokic had no legitimate claim to being the best player that season.

[Colbinii]

So with OKC this year, go in an MVP conversation where SGA is a candidate, Chet gets brought up to knock SGA, and in ROY it's the opposite. These actions on their own aren't absurd, but the focus on whoever we're not actually supposed to be focused on is absurd.

I don't this posting the +/- of Chet w/o SGA is somehow an argument against SGA for MVP.

I feel like this is a blanket statement.

[OhayoKD]

A good bench is underrated imo and people are overlooking just how dreadfully lackluster Denver's bench. Even then I'm mostly putting this on Murray, Gordan and KCP not performing like what is expected of them. Sure Jokic didn't have his best game but even if he did would it have mattered, I'm not sure.

I personally don't think I blame GOAT tier players for losing to significantly more stacked teams. I don't hold it against Wilt he didn't beat the Celtics when he was on the Warriors, I don't blame Kareem for losing to the Blazers in 1977, I don't blame Jordan for not getting past the Pistons in the late 80s and I don't blame LeBron for not beating the superteam Celtics in 2008 and 2010, or for losing to the Spurs in 2014 and especially not against the 2017 and 2018 Warriors.

To be clear I do put scrutiny on LeBron for 2011 but that's because he lost with a better supporting cast. 2009 and 2015 are arguable in my eyes whether LeBron deserves to be blamed for those losses and even if he does it's not entirely his fault at the very least.

I also don't view Jokic on a GOAT trajectory, more like top 10, maybe that plays a role in how harsh I'd be too.

2009 lebron vs orlando is a contender for the bedt he has ever played
It would be insane to blame him for that one when 2010 is right there as a fine in a vacuum but underwhelming for him series

2015 was also lebron playing with a bad back and no scorer help

Saying that jokic has a way worse support cast, or even a way worse performing cast off 1 game is wild too

The Magic really weren't much deeper than the Cavs in 2009. LeBron having no scoring help in 2015 is also just not really true with Mozgov, Smith and Thompson averaging in the double figures.

Doesn't efficiency matter when judging that? IIRC, per 538, even with LeBron being inefficient that series, shots from his teammates were less effecient, and that is with Lebron posting 50:10 ast:tov while drawing a crazy amount of defensive attention while having basically all of the offense run through him with no kyrie or love and slowing the pace to a crawl to take the warriors out of their rythym.

[OhayoKD]

So with OKC this year, go in an MVP conversation where SGA is a candidate, Chet gets brought up to knock SGA, and in ROY it's the opposite. These actions on their own aren't absurd, but the focus on whoever we're not actually supposed to be focused on is absurd.

I don't this posting the +/- of Chet w/o SGA is somehow an argument against SGA for MVP.

I feel like this is a blanket statement.

It logically has to be unless you want to give double credit(which some people do and is fine). To the degree we disrcriminate between individual contribution and team success, the more a teammate contributes, the less you do. People can get upset about that, but that is just how it works.

Reality cares not for romance.

[OhayoKD]

Minny is the best defensive team I have watched in a very long time. The way Gobert contained Jokic-Gordon short roll actions is nothing short of incredible, I don't think I have ever seen anything like that before.

It's a huge win for the Wolves. I'm sure Nuggets will start to find holes in this incredible defense sooner or later, but the question is if they'll have enough time. I know it sounds tautological, but early wins for the Wolves are critical to win the series.

Rudy vs harden-capela in 2019

[Texas Chuck]

To the degree we disrcriminate between individual contribution and team success, the more a teammate contributes, the less you do. People can get upset about that, but that is just how it works.

Reality cares not for romance.

That's simply too simplistic though. Generally on the best teams, the best players are elevating other players. And certainly in the case of guys like SGA and Jokic, they are absolutely elevating the play of others.

[Doctor MJ]

So with OKC this year, go in an MVP conversation where SGA is a candidate, Chet gets brought up to knock SGA, and in ROY it's the opposite. These actions on their own aren't absurd, but the focus on whoever we're not actually supposed to be focused on is absurd.

I don't this posting the +/- of Chet w/o SGA is somehow an argument against SGA for MVP.

I feel like this is a blanket statement.

I'm confused by your statement as a reply to mine. Could you clarify what you mean?

[70sFan]

Minny is the best defensive team I have watched in a very long time. The way Gobert contained Jokic-Gordon short roll actions is nothing short of incredible, I don't think I have ever seen anything like that before.

It's a huge win for the Wolves. I'm sure Nuggets will start to find holes in this incredible defense sooner or later, but the question is if they'll have enough time. I know it sounds tautological, but early wins for the Wolves are critical to win the series.

Rudy vs harden-capela in 2019

I don't think it's the same, because Jokic is significantly tougher to contain as a passer in such situations.

[Colbinii]

So with OKC this year, go in an MVP conversation where SGA is a candidate, Chet gets brought up to knock SGA, and in ROY it's the opposite. These actions on their own aren't absurd, but the focus on whoever we're not actually supposed to be focused on is absurd.

I don't this posting the +/- of Chet w/o SGA is somehow an argument against SGA for MVP.

I feel like this is a blanket statement.

I'm confused by your statement as a reply to mine. Could you clarify what you mean?

I guess I don't think the same people who argue against SGA for MVP by bringing up Chet [and to a lesser extent J-Dub] are also arguing against Chet for ROY by bringing up SGA.

Maybe you just meant some people do A (Bring up Chet in MVP talks surrounding SGA) and some people do B (Bring up SGA in ROY talks surrounding Chet).

But, more importantly, Towns really is playing a complimentary role in the post-season like Gasol as an offensive hub providing defensive value. The fouls are still a thing, but Towns efficiency has sky-rocketed in his lower-usage role, similar to how Gasol's did when joining the Lakers.

[OhayoKD]

Nothing amazes me more than this board and its obsession on evaluating players not on their own play but rather on the perceived quality of their teammates.

This will never ever make sense to me.

Also, I really hate Mike Conley getting the Sam Cassell treatment here. Where instead of focusing on the reality that he's a good player clearly helping his team in meaningful ways, we describe him solely by his age to justify our narrative of bad teammates because we think that's the best way to evaluate individual players.

I also think we are wildly overreacting to one game. Burying Jokic and the Nuggets isn't something I'm at all prepared to do after one game. I'm taking nothing away from Minnesota who has been good all year and great in the playoffs. But Denver is a legit defending champion here.

I love conley, i mentioned his age to point out he is not giving minnesota some unfairly stacked cast against jokic if that makes sense

A wise person once said:

But that's reductive and stupid and I forgot why I don't engage with you often. You never are willing to engage with the points I make in the posts you quote but rather invent windmills to tilt at.

Your post was dead on and it's worth remembering the poster inventing windmills previously claimed they would take Jokic with any of the other non-murray starters over any other duo in the league. Thus far he is struggling to match the likes of down-year Lebron+Mozgov or down-year Lebron+delly, and Giannis+Jrue with all the avengers in place.

To the degree we disrcriminate between individual contribution and team success, the more a teammate contributes, the less you do. People can get upset about that, but that is just how it works.

Reality cares not for romance.

That's simply too simplistic though. Generally on the best teams, the best players are elevating other players. And certainly in the case of guys like SGA and Jokic, they are absolutely elevating the play of others.

And if so, the logical end of that is...double counting team success for successful players. Separating the individual from the whole will always require subtraction.

If you have an issue with "justifying teammates being bad" then you may was well count the rings. There is no moral trophy for "respectfully" evaluating a player.

[tsherkin]

2009 lebron vs orlando is a contender for the bedt he has ever played
It would be insane to blame him for that one when 2010 is right there as a fine in a vacuum but underwhelming for him series

2015 was also lebron playing with a bad back and no scorer help

Saying that jokic has a way worse support cast, or even a way worse performing cast off 1 game is wild too

The Magic really weren't much deeper than the Cavs in 2009. LeBron having no scoring help in 2015 is also just not really true with Mozgov, Smith and Thompson averaging in the double figures.

Doesn't efficiency matter when judging that? IIRC, per 538, even with LeBron being inefficient that series, shots from his teammates were less effecient, and that is with Lebron posting 50:10 ast:tov while drawing a crazy amount of defensive attention while having basically all of the offense run through him with no kyrie or love and slowing the pace to a crawl to take the warriors out of their rythym.

Adding to this, Lebron was creating a ton of that offense FOR them.

Smith averaged 12.8 ppg, almost exclusively through his 7.8 3PA/g at 35.9%. He was a 53.8% TS guy.

Mozgov created basically nothing for himself, and averaged 10.6 ppg on 57.7% TS and 87.8% of his baskets were assisted.

Thompson averaged 9.6 ppg on 55.8% FG and 58.2 TS%, and was 62.5% assisted. He also shot 58.5% at the line.

So what are we really talking about here? That isn't "scoring support," that's "rotation player-level production which required Lebron to do all the work for it to happen."

Lebron's postseason TS% sucked that year. 53% versus Boston, 46.0% against the Bulls, 50.6% versus Atlanta and 47.7% versus the Warriors. Couldn't hit a 3 to save his life and shot under 42% inside the arc. Was getting violently disrespected by the refs the whole time, too. Over 30% of his shots in the RA and his FTr dropped from like .41 to around .30. But he also absolutely couldn't shooting outside of the RA to save his gorram life for basically all 20 games that postseason. But he also had so little help. Shumpert shot 36% FG, Smith was at 40.3% and quite marginal from 3 in volume, Mozgov was literally useless unless it was a spoon-fed dunk, Dellevadova shot 34.6%, when Kyrie was there he was a 43.8% FG guy but still quite positive on O, 34.7% FG from James Jones, 41.5% from Kevin Love over 4 games... and on and on and on.

All of the other shot creators were injured, the roleplayers bit chunks. And yeah, Lebron's middle game isn't his strength. Even in years he has shot well, that hasn't been the centerpiece of his game, and it showed. He was taking 50% of his shots inside 10 feet, though, and basically couldn't buy a foul call to save his life, which was trialsome. That was a fairly significant carry job. And then he missed Kyrie for the entirety of the Finals, and didn't have Love for almost the entire run. While running into the best defense in the league in the Finals.

[Doctor MJ]

I don't this posting the +/- of Chet w/o SGA is somehow an argument against SGA for MVP.

I feel like this is a blanket statement.

I'm confused by your statement as a reply to mine. Could you clarify what you mean?

I guess I don't think the same people who argue against SGA for MVP by bringing up Chet [and to a lesser extent J-Dub] are also arguing against Chet for ROY by bringing up SGA.

Maybe you just meant some people do A (Bring up Chet in MVP talks surrounding SGA) and some people do B (Bring up SGA in ROY talks surrounding Chet).

But, more importantly, Towns really is playing a complimentary role in the post-season like Gasol as an offensive hub providing defensive value. The fouls are still a thing, but Towns efficiency has sky-rocketed in his lower-usage role, similar to how Gasol's did when joining the Lakers.

Oh, I wasn't meaning to specifically say it's all the same people, though I do think stuff like that happens despite the apparent contradiction.

Re: Towns efficiency skyrocketed in postseason...like Gasol offensive hub, defensive value. Okay, and this has happened with him with him playing way less minutes than in the past - he's 6th on the team right now in the playoffs - while the team thrives with him on the bench.

I don't disagree with you that playing Towns in a smaller role is better, but the connection with Gasol you make continues to not sit right with me. Yes there are some similarities, but you're comparing a guy who is a gold standard for an extremely synergistic #2 star with a guy who is seems to be getting pushed to the side behind not just the two stars (Edwards & Gobert), but the role players who work best with those stars.