RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#501 » by AEnigma » Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:14 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Ironically, players who are [in a vacuum] "more" talented (particularly offensively) will sometimes be misused or used in less than optimal ways. Because their skillset is more broad and varied/versatile, there is more room to interpret what you have [as a player] incorrectly, or for other reasons try to fit that square peg into a round hole (in ways that simply DO NOT HAPPEN with your relatively well-defined role players).

Sometimes it happens because organizations are feeling a young player out, trying to see if this guy or that one can truly be a "franchise player". Other times they're miscast in that "star" role out of obstinancy [by the organization] or simple lack of BETTER options (e.g. Patrick Ewing perhaps?? or perhaps even David Robinson, which makes it somewhat remarkable that his pre-Duncan AuPM was still so frickin' awesome [in the rs, at least], since it probably wasn't his ideal offensive utilization).

Bringing this here because my response has little to do with the #82 thread.

I would agree with most of these observations, but the David Robinson suggestion misses the mark. Being a heavy volume first option is not Robinson’s ideal role, correct. This is on some level true for many star scorers. Pre-Miami Lebron was an incredible scorer… but it was not his ideal role to be such a team outlier the way he was before that initial departure.

The mistake is that being overextended is distinct from having your APM values suppressed. David Robinson was at his most “valuable” in 1994. That year, he was not only by far his team’s top scorer, but also arguably its lead playmaker, which is an even worse role for him. However, needing to fulfill those roles for the team made the team depend on him more and thus made him more valuable. It is a point toward inflation, not deflation — and you see that when they reestablish some coherent playmaking and his raw impact goes down, even though reducing that load is more suitable for his role.

There might be an interesting exploration of whether that type of reliance can backfire in the postseason, under the theory that strategies which work in the regular season can suddenly become anchors in the postseason. That is a separate question though than this one about maximising regular season impact.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#502 » by Fundamentals21 » Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:15 am

Rudy Gobert
Paul George
Jimmy Butler
Draymond Green
Kyle Lowry

Really have trouble separating the lower greats of the modern era. These 5 make for an interesting discussion.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#503 » by AEnigma » Fri Apr 5, 2024 3:28 am

The Marion link redirects to this thread rather than to his thread.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#504 » by penbeast0 » Fri Apr 5, 2024 11:47 am

AEnigma wrote:The Marion link redirects to this thread rather than to his thread.


Fixed, thanks.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#505 » by AEnigma » Sun Apr 7, 2024 5:55 pm

Thought I had to consolidate support at the very end of the project: would it be worth ending the nomination process at #98 (as in, #97 will be the last thread with a nomination)? Forces something of a tiebreak process at the end, although not to the same literal degree (4 options at #99, 3 options at #100).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#506 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Apr 7, 2024 6:07 pm

AEnigma wrote:Thought I had to consolidate support at the very end of the project: would it be worth ending the nomination process at #98 (as in, #97 will be the last thread with a nomination)? Forces something of a tiebreak process at the end, although not to the same literal degree (4 options at #99, 3 options at #100).


I'm willing to entertain this, or perhaps a more mild version where we don't go beyond 5 options when there are 5 or less sports left.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#507 » by tsherkin » Tue Apr 9, 2024 2:09 pm

Have to say, as with the previous iterations, much respect to everyone who started and is finishing all the way through. This is a lengthy project, and this version has been going on for 10 months or so. Well done, folks.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#508 » by IlikeSHAIguys » Thu Apr 11, 2024 12:34 pm

tsherkin wrote:Have to say, as with the previous iterations, much respect to everyone who started and is finishing all the way through. This is a lengthy project, and this version has been going on for 10 months or so. Well done, folks.

how does activity this year compare to all the other ones?

Not trying to make this a competition or anything but i guess I'm curious.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#509 » by penbeast0 » Thu Apr 11, 2024 12:53 pm

Similar; a lot of people at first slimming down to a core of regulars with some irregular posters. The previous threads are all posted at the beginning of this one but it would be a challenge to go back and actually get the numbers.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#510 » by AEnigma » Thu Apr 11, 2024 1:24 pm

Whether or not it speaks to overall engagement, the threads are the longest they have been since 2014. I think we have only had two single-page threads so far.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#511 » by OhayoKD » Thu Apr 11, 2024 2:16 pm

Am guessing vote totals also strongly favor this iteration past the early rounds.

#75 got 14 votes here while thread #50 in 2020 got 9 and thread #50 in 2014 got 16(#75 got only 9)
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#512 » by trelos6 » Sun May 5, 2024 8:37 pm

I have spent close to 11 months reading the threads daily since the project started. What an ultra marathon!

Big thanks to Doctor MJ for driving the project and everyone else for participating.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#513 » by AEnigma » Wed May 8, 2024 4:59 pm

Thanks for running the project for the past year. Enjoyable experience, and while there are a couple of personally questionable elevations and absences, I think overall this looks to my eyes like the best list so far.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#514 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Wed May 8, 2024 7:09 pm

So, just some postmortem stuff I took the time to compile.

Players who missed the 2023 list who were on the 2020 list:

Walt Bellamy
Cliff Hagan
Terry Porter
Carmelo Anthony
Dan Issel
Jeff Hornacak
Chris Bosh
Grant Hill
Hal Greer
Alex English

Starting from 2006(because the 2003 list on Doc's spreadsheet is incomplete), this is the first ever omission for Hill, Greer, and English, and only the second ever omission for Issel.

This is Melo's first omission since making the list for the first time in 2011, and Bosh's first omission since making the list for the first time in 2014.

Players who made the 2023 list who didn't make the 2020 list:

Luka Doncic
Jayson Tatum
Joel Embiid
Rudy Gobert
Jimmy Butler
Paul George
Al Horford
Kyle Lowry
Bob Davies
Bill Sharman

All of the above made the list for the first time, with the exception of Bill Sharman, who returns to the list after missing it in 2020 and 2017. Which brings me to this, because Clyde asked about it in another thread yesterday, but here the counts of first-time inductees on every list since 2008(hopefully I didn't miss anyone):

2008(7) - Chauncey Billups, Tim Hardaway, Larry Nance, Mark Aguirre, Bob Dandridge, Cliff Hagan, Neil Johnston
2011(11) - Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol, Elton Brand, Mark Price, Brad Daugherty, Bill Laimbeer, Gus Williams
2014(6) - Kevin Durant, Chris Bosh, Tony Parker, Shawn Marion, Rasheed Wallace, Horace Grant
2017(8) - Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Mookie Blaylock, Vlade Divac, Terry Porter, Chet Walker
2020(6) - Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Draymond Green, Jeff Hornacek
2023(9) - Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Al Horford, Kyle Lowry, Bob Davies

So this list had the second highest number of first-time inductees ever. Make of that what you will.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#515 » by AEnigma » Wed May 8, 2024 7:22 pm

Just means there will be fewer next time around. Looking at two-project chunks, you have 18 in 2008/11, 17 in 2011/14, 14 in 2014/17, 14 in 2017/20, and now 15 in 2020/23. Pretty consistent.

Possible guesses for next project would be Jrue, Booker, Shai, Mitchell, Edwards, Kyrie, and Towns, all of whom had relatively good seasons this year and (save for Booker) look primed to add to their résumés over the next two seasons.

Greer versus Sharman is an interesting comparison. Over the past decade I think English has won comparisons with Wilkins, but this time he did not, and that was a costly loss with both falling to the project fringes.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#516 » by AEnigma » Wed May 8, 2024 9:56 pm

Did not look at the top thirty, but for the rest, I noticed these players were not provided with “victory” pictures in their induction posts:

    - Jimmy Butler
    Spoiler:
    Image

    - Bob Cousy
    Spoiler:
    Image

    - Tony Parker
    Spoiler:
    Image

    - Shawn Marion
    Spoiler:
    Image

    - Al Horford
    Spoiler:
    Image

    - Bill Walton
    Spoiler:
    Image

    - Gus Williams
    Spoiler:
    Image
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#517 » by f4p » Wed May 8, 2024 11:47 pm

Man, can't believe this has been going on for almost a year. Definitely a very good list even if I'd knock a few guys down (maybe even one I voted for, lol). Most of the guys I was really hoping to champion did better than I expected, with Hakeem jumping way up to 6 (I'll convince you Duncan guys one day :D ), Mikan getting a surprisingly high finish, and Harden jumping into the top 30 when I thought he might slip.

Thanks to Doc for running the whole thing and to anyone who took the time to verify vote counts.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#518 » by sp6r=underrated » Thu May 9, 2024 6:16 pm

I've started browsing these threads. I'm always impressed at the quality of conversation in these threads. Posters come and go but realgm attracts the best basketball posters. Bravo.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#519 » by Doctor MJ » Yesterday 4:53 am

Hey y'all,

I've updated the spreadsheet adding 3 new tabs:

1. Trajectory Trends - graphs up to 5 players rankings from project to project (players editable)
2. Common Origins (California, France, etc.)
3. Common Colleges (North Carolina, UCLA, etc.)

Please take a look and share thoughts.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - General Thread 

Post#520 » by AEnigma » Yesterday 7:04 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Hey y'all,

I've updated the spreadsheet adding 3 new tabs:

1. Trajectory Trends - graphs up to 5 players rankings from project to project (players editable)
2. Common Origins (California, France, etc.)
3. Common Colleges (North Carolina, UCLA, etc.)

Please take a look and share thoughts.

This is a lot of fun to peruse.

I do not have much comment on origin patterns, but the high proportions for North Carolina and D.C. are interesting given their size (and is definitely a blow for how Kentucky and Indiana see themselves :lol:). Also will note how there was a historical skew to New York and Illinois (Chicago) which has declined in a way not true of California and North Carolina.

I expect Canada will earn its second soon (Shai), and France will have a third before too long (Wembanyama).

Moving onto universities, immediately caught by Georgetown not having any of the four players born in D.C. :oops: Otherwise, while neat to see, too much even distribution (UNC aside…) to develop any real observations.

Meat for me is the trajectory trends. Will separate the thoughts between future exits and more functionally neutral internal shifts.

Future exits for me is more observable in the second tab (player trajectories) because of how tied it seems to be to age. By which I mean, while there are some absolute mainstays, for the most part, the fringe is going to move down. Especially if you do not exactly leap onto the scene. I look at Carmelo appearing at #93… and then hovering at that level for a few projects before falling off. Late 80s/90s is a dangerous place to be. Somewhat true for Bosh as well, with a spike shortly after retirement only getting him to #75. Elton Brand getting to #79 after his last real season… So on that note, I will say Horford entering in at #89 near the end of his career does not portend a long presence on the list.

Otherwise, we see relatively gradual declines from Webber and Hill before a sudden drop after #83. I was curious whether Hill might find his way back, but these trends seem to suggest that may be it for him. Mullin had some of the same issues as Carmelo where he never really had a secure place. Dumars did for a moment but then voters were disillusioned. Porter temporarily broke through with some retroactive appreciation, but not enough to stick; maybe if he had timed his San Antonio years better (bookended by titles is an Eddie Jones -esque bad beat).

Sidney Moncrief and James Worthy have been on slow downward trends. I think the Finals MVP and title equity will insulate Worthy a bit in the way it has for Jack Sikma (consistently hovering in the 80s and 90s) and to a lesser extent Gus Williams (four appearances but never been higher than #92) and post-2011 Walton, but maybe this will indeed prove to be his last go of it. Then again, we saw much more massive plummets from Bob McAdoo (#77 to #97), Dominique Wilkins (#73 to #96), and as I have repeatedly highlighted, Alex English (#68 to completely gone), so I do believe lack of postseason relevance to be the more fatal drag (see also: Hill, Mullin, and Carmelo). Not that it forecasts an exit from the list anytime soon, but Gervin also took a tumble (prior low of #41 now down to #59). That one I see being reversed a little more easily than what we see for Wilkins or English based on postseason success (while McAdoo at least has his MVP and some roleplayer rings), but who knows.

Greer had a bit of a sudden drop too (#82 to completely gone), but to me that is more expected based on era. There are too many fantastic guards now for people to be worrying about a decent non-superstar from the 1960s. As I said, Sharman makes for an interesting contrast in how both have relatively equal all-NBA and all-star recognition, with Sharman having more success and being more of a league standout by virtue of playing before Oscar and West arrived, but I would expect his reentry to be similarly short lived. Billy Cunningham looks to be on shaky ground, regularly hovering in that low 80s to 90s range. And although Davies was a fun story and I am glad we inducted him, the oldest debut in the history of the project making an initial appearance at #99 screams “one-off” to me. :uhoh:

As a final note before I start playing with graphs, I was confused to see Dave Debusschere had so much more success on this list than Chet Walker and Bob Dandridge did. I do not mind him being ahead or anything; it is just odd that he has four appearances while Walker only has (and at this point will almost certainly only ever have) the one at #95 and Dandridge only had the two at #99.

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