Colbinii wrote:lessthanjake wrote:Colbinii wrote:
Just to confirm.
You are using cumulative SRS for the Warriors.
Are you using the same for the 2023 Nuggets and acknowledging they had an All-Time easy playoff run?
I think that the low SRS of the 2023 Nuggets opponents is suggestive of it being a relatively easy run, and have said exactly that repeatedly. It is true that, unlike with the 2022 Warriors, there were lots of really major factors that would suggest that SRS is pretty far off in assessing the 2023 Nuggets’ opponents, but, given how low the SRS was, it’s not enough that I’d say the slate of opponents wasn’t relatively easy.
I mean come on man. Talk about a complete nothing-burger of a post here.
The Nuggets played against a historically weak run.
Injured Minnesota team with KAT/Gobert < 100%, McDaniels and Reid missing all the games, SlowMo missing a game.
Phoenix who lost CP3 mid-series and had no bench.
A Lakers team who beat a hobbled Memphis team and the Warriors on their last leg, and then a Miami team who only made the Finals because of GOAT level,
outlier shooting and then couldn't make any open 3s against Denver.
It's okay to call a spade a spade, instead of beating around the bush and writing 4 sentences that don't say anything.
The Nuggets had a historically easy finals run by any metric.
One sentence. Straight to the point. No beating around the bush, no double negatives, no sentences with 4 freaking comma's.
Usually things are quite a bit more complicated than one sentence, buddy. And this is certainly an example of that. There’s a boatload of reasons to believe the Nuggets’ opponents were substantially better than their SRS. I wrote about them in detail here earlier today, essentially in response to you making very similar points in a different thread:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=112986116#p112986116. And as I concluded in that post, “it’s really not mutually exclusive to say that the Nuggets’ opponents were significantly better than their 0.54 SRS average and that they were still on the weak side in terms of difficulty of opponents in a title run.”
In any event, I don’t really think it’s the case that if one thinks opponent SRS is somewhat inaccurate for the 2023 Nuggets it must be inaccurate for the 2022 Warriors too. Obviously SRS is not a perfect measure of an opponent’s quality, but it gives us a good baseline, which is then subject to adding additional context. In the case of the 2023 Nuggets, there’s a lot of additional context that suggests SRS likely underestimated their opponents a good deal. In the case of the 2022 Warriors, there’s really not much additional context that suggests SRS likely overestimates their opponents a good deal. There’s basically just the injury to Ja, and that’s it, but the Warriors were already ahead in the series before he missed games, and the Grizzlies had had a 12.98 SRS in 25 games without Ja that season anyways.
In both cases, though, my view errs on the side of what the SRS tells us. I’m saying that the team whose opponents had low SRS had a relatively easy run and the team whose opponents had high SRS had a relatively difficult run. This shouldn’t be controversial. You seem to agree regarding the Nuggets, but yet still be arguing with me? I’m not sure why. Meanwhile, I can’t even tell if you have a position on the difficulty of the Warriors’ run or whether you are just using what I said about that to try to catch me out regarding the Nuggets, even though I’ve already said repeatedly (including in other threads literally earlier today) that I think the Nuggets’ run was “definitely on the easy side.”