Where would Peak Wade rank today?

[Pelly24]

Jimmy Butler is a bad three-point shooter but has dominated in the playoffs. He's a little taller, but wade is much, much faster and more athletic in nearly every way with a far superior handle and even better playmaking ability.

And we consider Jimmy a borderline top 10 player in the league most years. When he is ranked higher it's in the playoffs, and not coincidentally that's when he starts hitting 3s.

Butler doesn't shoot threes better than prime Wade in the playoffs though.

TBH, by most advanced stats and the outcomes of his teams — their records always get way better when he gets there and they're always a lot less successful when he leaves — Jimmy's been a legit top 8 player the last six or seven years. And he's got the finals appearances and LeBron, D-Wade esque playoff runs to prove it's not a fluke. Guaranteed 21/6/6 on +5 or 6 TS% with elite defense and the ability to run an offense, hit clutch shots and free throws and scale down from a 1st to 3rd or 4th option. Jimmy is amazing, a legit top 10 player, not borderline.

[Pelly24]

Yeah Idk I feel like I get what's going on, I just don't understand his point or accept that line of thinking. Yes it's easier to score at the rim today, so why wouldn't Wade score even more easily? He had more volume and efficiency than the best slashers now, so why wouldn't he just get even more free throw attempts and free throws? That's my thing. He would be overwhelmingly dominant physically now just like he was then. I think

"More volume and efficiency than the best slashers now" is a bit of an exaggeration. Wade didn't start shooting 70%+ from 0-3 feet until he was playing with Lebron and was already into his 30s in 2013, so the volume wasn't there by the time we started to see him shooting that well. Remember, league average from 0-3 is 69.3% against Wade's Miami average of 65.8%. Naturally, we'd expect to see his FG% rise due to changes in spacing, pace and so forth, but only so much. Lebron's been a little shy of 80% the past couple of seasons, but he's also been posting 70%+ since 2005 and is much larger than Wade.

And then yes, I think his P&R and kick out game would be even better today, I think he might trade in one or two midrange jumpers for couple more three-point attempts, maybe knock them down at 33%. I think he could hunt a couple more fouls, his TS% would probably hover around 59-61 TS%. Then his defense would still be ridiculous. And then his IQ, etc.

Wade has 3 seasons where he shot better than 30.2% from 3 in his career, and one was his rookie season on 0.9 3PA/g. 33% is probably pushing it a little, unless he started to get into the corner. He wasn't that good a shooter. Remember, he was a 38.6% guy from 16-23 feet in his career; perimeter shooting wasn't a strength for him to any sort of consistent degree. He murdered you inside 10 feet, and you just prayed that his pull-ups and such weren't going. Otherwise, bleh, on a night to night basis.

He'd still be excellent today, though. He'd likely see a larger proportion of his shots at the rim, his rim FG% would rise, more transition opportunities. I don't think it's a question that he would, at the very least, match his own actual prime rTS% and scoring volume. He was a better playmaker than Jayson Tatum, for example, which helps set the table some. Respect where due, right? He had the tools, he had the talent. Hard to gauge exactly what he could do with his capricious jumper, but still.

In the 2005-2006 regular season, according to bball ref, Wade took 545 shots at the rim at 66%. He was at 581 attempts at 66% in 2008-2009. This is with a packed paint in comparison to now with some nearly unthinkable volume. He had 128 dunks in 2009. These are big men type numbers and mostly self created with not a lot of spacing. Ja Morant was at 65% last year on 351 attempts. I could try to find some other stats, but I don't think anyone besides LeBron and Giannis really eclipse this level of volume and efficiency, especially given the circumstances. For comparison, LeBron was at 72% shooting at the rim on about the same amount of attempts back in 2008-2009. And thats absolute apex athletic ability Lebron.LeBron is somehow shooting just as well at the rim now despite being a decade older. That's not a coincidence. Prime Wade easily clears 72-74% at the rim today with all this spacing now, based on that (educated guess).

And agreed yeah, Like he's clearly better than Tatum. I wish he were better from the free throw line. I saw in the midrange during his best years he was a 41-44% kind of guy, so like a better Westbrook with more moves, more floaters, all that.

He could get to

[OhayoKD]

Wade stands out because his attempts would go up even more. The more easily you can score at the rim the more impactful you are offensively, and the more people have to foul you. .

No.

If the other team also sees their players ability to finish at the rim go up at a similar rate then the "impact" is cancelled out leaving wade no better relative to the field.

I'm not overthinking, you just haven't thought this through. Maybe this time you'll actually address what you're replying? Or just repeat yourself...

Pelly, I believe what Ohayo is trying to say here is that Wade isn't alone in benefiting from how the era has changed things. What needs to happen is superior separation due to era, that sound about right, Ohayo?.

Yep.

For comparison, LeBron was at 72% shooting at the rim on about the same amount of attempts back in 2008-2009. And thats absolute apex athletic ability Lebron.LeBron is somehow shooting just as well at the rim now despite being a decade older. That's not a coincidence. Prime Wade easily clears 72-74% at the rim today with all this spacing now, based on that (educated guess).

The "somehow" is that Lebron is big and tall. Wade is(in a nba sense) not. That actual guards like sga or morant do not offer a bigger rim-threat than a greatly diminished Lebron offers(never mind Giannis) is a concern if you are actually worried about impact and not slashlines.

m not taking anyone but Jokic and maybe Luka over him in today's game. I've seen Giannis and Embiid fizzle out too much.

An interesting claim given that Giannis has seen significantly more team-success in the regular season and the playoffs than Jokic and is a direct peer for him in any sort of impact-on-winning comparison. Wade is a guard and obviously will not be touching Giannis's influence on that end.

[DCasey91]

Wade is essentially Lebron at 6”4 with shoes. If the jumper is on then good luck to you lol.

If you watched them together they were basically carbon copies on both ends.

Not necessarily the best offensive or defensive player on the court at any given time but could be through sheer impact plays it’s just too much of a task to fully quell them.

Like honestly look at how inflated less athletic guards have gotten playoffs included.

People can point to range shooting fine, but this guy can get to the rim at will with 3/2 out setups

Now just subtract one in a 1/4 out type of environment

It’s actually a differential of 2

3/2

Vs 1/4

One less on the outside back then
One gets left out of the paint and put onto 3 ball range now

What isn’t talk about enough during Wades prime is the 011 Finals. He has some games where he was going scorched earth

His valuable traits get a boost because that’s what the modern NBA ergonomics is stacked pnr, stacked screens, further than half court starting points (a lot more space from the top to drive and snake), transitional play and of course spread wing/c&s 3ball influx.

You can 100% do the old diatribe of Lebron/Giannis + 4 shooters and get handsome returns.

Watch on YouTube

;pp=ygUQV2FkZSAyMDExIGZpbmFscw%3D%3D

One my fav games from Wade. With todays NBA that might have been a foul call at the end with the shooters landing.

[tsherkin]

The "somehow" is that Lebron is big and tall. Wade is(in a nba sense) not.

Oh, my "somehow" had nothing to do with Wade, it has to do with Lebron being 39 and posting the best shooting percentages of his career from 0-3 feet, which is pretty wild.

That actual guards like sga or morant do not offer a bigger rim-threat than a greatly diminished Lebron offers(never mind Giannis) is a concern if you are actually worried about impact and not slashlines.

Yeah, I mean Shai's shooting what, 73% on like a quarter of his shots as far as 0-3 feet goes? That's pretty damned good, but of course Lebron is a monster. And Morant, 71% on about 31% of his attempts. And Lebron is somehow getting 35.5% of his attempts there and shooting as he is, which is wild.

An interesting claim given that Giannis has seen significantly more team-success in the regular season and the playoffs than Jokic and is a direct peer for him in any sort of impact-on-winning comparison. Wade is a guard and obviously will not be touching Giannis's influence on that end.

Yes, Giannis' defense makes me wonder about that one, but that was Pelly, not me. Whatever flaws he has on offense, he is a two-way player, and a former DPOY, no less.

[Pelly24]

No.

If the other team also sees their players ability to finish at the rim go up at a similar rate then the "impact" is cancelled out leaving wade no better relative to the field.

I'm not overthinking, you just haven't thought this through. Maybe this time you'll actually address what you're replying? Or just repeat yourself...

Pelly, I believe what Ohayo is trying to say here is that Wade isn't alone in benefiting from how the era has changed things. What needs to happen is superior separation due to era, that sound about right, Ohayo?.

Yep.

For comparison, LeBron was at 72% shooting at the rim on about the same amount of attempts back in 2008-2009. And thats absolute apex athletic ability Lebron.LeBron is somehow shooting just as well at the rim now despite being a decade older. That's not a coincidence. Prime Wade easily clears 72-74% at the rim today with all this spacing now, based on that (educated guess).

The "somehow" is that Lebron is big and tall. Wade is(in a nba sense) not. That actual guards like sga or morant do not offer a bigger rim-threat than a greatly diminished Lebron offers(never mind Giannis) is a concern if you are actually worried about impact and not slashlines.

m not taking anyone but Jokic and maybe Luka over him in today's game. I've seen Giannis and Embiid fizzle out too much.

An interesting claim given that Giannis has seen significantly more team-success in the regular season and the playoffs than Jokic and is a direct peer for him in any sort of impact-on-winning comparison. Wade is a guard and obviously will not be touching Giannis's influence on that end.

Jokic is much better than Giannis. Just peep the 2023 postseason for evidence. Every time Jokic lost in the playoffs he was supposed to lose, because he had the worse team due to injuries. He's beaten Kawhi and PG,beat the blazers basically by himself, etc. In comparison, Giannis was upset in 2020 and 2023. He only won a championship when all the other elite players were injured. Jokic is in the middle of having the type of BPM/Ws/48, PER, EPM, etc. whatever advanced stats you choose, that only MJ and LeBron rivaled at their peak. He averaged a 26 point triple double on 70 (!!!) TS%.

And no, it's not a concern, because DWade is much bigger and stronger than both SGA and JA Morant while also being faster. He would get to the rim and finish with basically no resistance. He doesn't have to be as big as LeBron, because he was still huge. He was a legit 6'4" (what would be seen as 6'5") with a 6'10" wingspan and an 8'6" standing reach while being the fastest and possibly the most coordinated guard in the league while also beingg 220 pounds with a three-foot vertical leap and the ability to take off one or two feet.
Comparing these guards to Wade physically just feels off, he has like 30 pounds on them and is even faster than Ja. He was called The Flash for a reason.


As far as Wade v Giannis, I can understand taking Giannis over him, but I
ve never seen Giannis do something like what Wade did in 2006, and in general, I never saw Wade get outplayed and upset in the same way that Giannis was in the same circumstances. He's a better playmaker, a more creative offensive player and generally just incredibly difficult to stop. And he doesn't touch Giannis' defensive impact, but he is the greatest shot-blocking guard ever and he was an All-NBA defender.

Give prime/peak Wade a Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday he probably gets a couple of chips, no way he goes out the way Giannis did to Jimmy and the heat multiple times

[OhayoKD]

The "somehow" is that Lebron is big and tall. Wade is(in a nba sense) not.

Oh, my "somehow" had nothing to do with Wade, it has to do with Lebron being 39 and posting the best shooting percentages of his career from 0-3 feet, which is pretty wild.

That actual guards like sga or morant do not offer a bigger rim-threat than a greatly diminished Lebron offers(never mind Giannis) is a concern if you are actually worried about impact and not slashlines.

Yeah, I mean Shai's shooting what, 73% on like a quarter of his shots as far as 0-3 feet goes? That's pretty damned good, but of course Lebron is a monster. And Morant, 71% on about 31% of his attempts. And Lebron is somehow getting 35.5% of his attempts there and shooting as he is, which is wild.

An interesting claim given that Giannis has seen significantly more team-success in the regular season and the playoffs than Jokic and is a direct peer for him in any sort of impact-on-winning comparison. Wade is a guard and obviously will not be touching Giannis's influence on that end.

Yes, Giannis' defense makes me wonder about that one, but that was Pelly, not me. Whatever flaws he has on offense, he is a two-way player, and a former DPOY, no less.

I got you, I just forgot to specify who said what. Sorry for the confusion lol

[tsherkin]

I got you, I just forgot to specify who said what. Sorry for the confusion lol

All good, man.

[OhayoKD]

Pelly, I believe what Ohayo is trying to say here is that Wade isn't alone in benefiting from how the era has changed things. What needs to happen is superior separation due to era, that sound about right, Ohayo?.

Yep.

For comparison, LeBron was at 72% shooting at the rim on about the same amount of attempts back in 2008-2009. And thats absolute apex athletic ability Lebron.LeBron is somehow shooting just as well at the rim now despite being a decade older. That's not a coincidence. Prime Wade easily clears 72-74% at the rim today with all this spacing now, based on that (educated guess).

The "somehow" is that Lebron is big and tall. Wade is(in a nba sense) not. That actual guards like sga or morant do not offer a bigger rim-threat than a greatly diminished Lebron offers(never mind Giannis) is a concern if you are actually worried about impact and not slashlines.

m not taking anyone but Jokic and maybe Luka over him in today's game. I've seen Giannis and Embiid fizzle out too much.

An interesting claim given that Giannis has seen significantly more team-success in the regular season and the playoffs than Jokic and is a direct peer for him in any sort of impact-on-winning comparison. Wade is a guard and obviously will not be touching Giannis's influence on that end.

Jokic is much better than Giannis. Just peep the 2023 postseason for evidence. Every time Jokic lost in the playoffs he was supposed to lose, because he had the worse team due to injuries. He's beaten Kawhi and PG,beat the blazers basically by himself

"Giannis is much better than Jokic, peep the 2022 and 2021 postseason for evidence"

Jokic's Nuggets have done alot worse than losing to the arguable 2nd best team/eventual finalist. I also don't know what your basis for "jokic would never lose to the heat with x" is when Jokic's Nuggets  put up less of a fight vs the Lakers than a hobbled Miami team despite Jokic's teammate assisting/scoring more combined points while facing more defensive attention from ad/lebron/dwight.

, etc. In comparison, Giannis was upset in 2020 and 2023. He only won a championship when all the other elite players were injured. Jokic is in the middle of having the type of BPM/Ws/48, PER, EPM, etc. whatever advanced stats you choose, that only MJ and LeBron rivaled at their peak. He averaged a 26 point triple double on 70 (!!!) TS%.

If by advanced stat you mean made-up slashline derivatives...you're still wrong because any stat that prioritized defensive actions or ball-handling would see Jokic look worse than the likes of Giannis and Luka respectively. Lebron is advantaged with either. It's not "whatever" stats you choose, it's "whatever stats" don't count or weigh Jokic's weaknesses enough for him to not look so good.

If you mean actual objective(or objective-adjacent) data then no. Jokic consistently loses to Embid in RAPM(never mind Lebron) and his best real-world signals don't touch James. His playoff on/off is also weirdly horrible. By any serious use of statistics Giannis is a peer, whether you go by regular season or playoffs:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2299872&p=110066251&hilit=giannis#p110066251
(you can control f for "challenger")

A TLDR:
 

-> similarish WOWY for rs and playoffs, if you went for a single-year jokic's 2023 has the most favorable upside I think assuming no teammate improvement in the postseason, but Giannis has an rs advantage with 19/20
-> similarish RAPM though I guess i'd give jokic an edge without longetivity considerations
-> Jokic a decent rs on/off advantage, giannis a big playoff on/off advantage
-> giannis's teams improve more in a raw-rating sense but wif you used a more binary approach like "srs-titles" or whatever giannis might come at a disadvantage(
-> giannis sports a longetivity advantage that is potentially suppressing averages to a degree
-> split apm-box hybrids though as mentioned, i think that's of dubious utility comparing defensive juggernaut with an offensive one

He has been less successful and he doesn't gain notable seperation individually unless you start cherrypicking what basketball actions you want to count.

I don't really know what the last line is supposed to prove. No one is arguing Jokic is a worse offensive player than Giannis.

And no, it's not a concern, because DWade is much bigger and stronger than both SGA and JA Morant while also being faster. He

He is closer to both of them than he is to Lebron in terms of physique. So yes, Lebron being able to be simialrly effective as a rim-scorer(more effective in 2023) calls into question in your theory that spacing would make his impact would go up as opposed to down.

[Pelly24]

Yep.

The "somehow" is that Lebron is big and tall. Wade is(in a nba sense) not. That actual guards like sga or morant do not offer a bigger rim-threat than a greatly diminished Lebron offers(never mind Giannis) is a concern if you are actually worried about impact and not slashlines.

An interesting claim given that Giannis has seen significantly more team-success in the regular season and the playoffs than Jokic and is a direct peer for him in any sort of impact-on-winning comparison. Wade is a guard and obviously will not be touching Giannis's influence on that end.

Jokic is much better than Giannis. Just peep the 2023 postseason for evidence. Every time Jokic lost in the playoffs he was supposed to lose, because he had the worse team due to injuries. He's beaten Kawhi and PG,beat the blazers basically by himself

"Giannis is much better than Jokic, peep the 2022 and 2021 postseason for evidence"

Jokic's Nuggets have done alot worse than losing to the arguable 2nd best team/eventual finalist. I also don't know what your basis for "jokic would never lose to the heat with x" is when Jokic's Nuggets  put up less of a fight vs the Lakers than a hobbled Miami team despite Jokic's teammate assisting/scoring more combined points while facing more defensive attention from ad/lebron/dwight.

, etc. In comparison, Giannis was upset in 2020 and 2023. He only won a championship when all the other elite players were injured. Jokic is in the middle of having the type of BPM/Ws/48, PER, EPM, etc. whatever advanced stats you choose, that only MJ and LeBron rivaled at their peak. He averaged a 26 point triple double on 70 (!!!) TS%.

If by advanced stat you mean made-up slashline derivatives...you're still wrong because any stat that prioritized defensive actions or ball-handling would see Jokic look worse than the likes of Giannis and Luka respectively. Lebron is advantaged with either. It's not "whatever" stats you choose, it's "whatever stats" don't count or weigh Jokic's weaknesses enough for him to not look so good.

If you mean actual objective(or objective-adjacent) data then no. Jokic consistently loses to Embid in RAPM(never mind Lebron) and his best real-world signals don't touch James. His playoff on/off is also weirdly horrible. By any serious use of statistics Giannis is a peer, whether you go by regular season or playoffs:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2299872&p=110066251&hilit=giannis#p110066251
(you can control f for "challenger")

A TLDR:
 

-> similarish WOWY for rs and playoffs, if you went for a single-year jokic's 2023 has the most favorable upside I think assuming no teammate improvement in the postseason, but Giannis has an rs advantage with 19/20
-> similarish RAPM though I guess i'd give jokic an edge without longetivity considerations
-> Jokic a decent rs on/off advantage, giannis a big playoff on/off advantage
-> giannis's teams improve more in a raw-rating sense but wif you used a more binary approach like "srs-titles" or whatever giannis might come at a disadvantage(
-> giannis sports a longetivity advantage that is potentially suppressing averages to a degree
-> split apm-box hybrids though as mentioned, i think that's of dubious utility comparing defensive juggernaut with an offensive one

He has been less successful and he doesn't gain notable seperation individually unless you start cherrypicking what basketball actions you want to count.

I don't really know what the last line is supposed to prove. No one is arguing Jokic is a worse offensive player than Giannis.

And no, it's not a concern, because DWade is much bigger and stronger than both SGA and JA Morant while also being faster. He

He is closer to both of them than he is to Lebron in terms of physique. So yes, Lebron being able to be simialrly effective as a rim-scorer(more effective in 2023) calls into question in your theory that spacing would make his impact would go up as opposed to down.

On the wade part I just don't know man lol. He's a complete outlier athletic marvel. DeAaron Fox has been shooting like 75% at the rim the last four seasons, albeit on much less volume. Wade has similar speed while being 20 pounds heavier and generally a craftier finisher. I don't see how the LeBron stuff calls anything into question, it seems like it only reinforces the point that it's easier to score at the rim now if LeBron at age 40 is capable of this volume and efficiency. A younger wade, who is faster with a better motor at this point etc. would ... idk. It's just clear that he could get to the rim whenever he wanted. He did so back then, and he'd do so now, even more easily. If you disagree with that, idk. LeBron is 6'8" 240. Ja Morant is 6'2" or 6'3" 180 pounds. SGA is 6'5" 195 pounds. Wade is a legit 6'4" 225. He had between 30 and 40 pounds on both of them. Just looking at the eye test, measurements aside, Wade is just much denser and more powerful than either of them. Just by weight difference and body composition, Wade is more similar to LeBron, those guys are literal twigs compared to Wade.

As for advanced stats, color me wrong on all advanced stats then, those are admittedly some I struggle to wrap my head around. I really don't think Giannis is on the same tier as Jokic though, and the stats and overall dominance I've seen from Jokic the last few years is the only thing that's reminded me of peak LeBron basically ... ever. I wasn't around to watch prime MJ. Jokic surpasses expectations each time out rather than falling short like Embiid and Giannis. Jokic lost to the lakers, but they weren't expected to win, and Jokic is notably much better now than he was then.

If Giannis has a crazy playoff run and wins the chip this year I'll buy it more, I think I might rather have Wade than him.

[LukaTheGOAT]

A stat called “rim and FT TSA percentage” combines attempts at the rim and free throw attempts as a shorthand for how much of a player’s offense comes at the basket. It’s a nice quick indicator, especially for perimeter players. It’s also really good at spotting a decline in athleticism and penetration.

Anything above 50 percent is really historic for non-big men, and sometimes big forwards who can slash and play around the basket will cross over that 50 percent line.

Wade peaked at 57%. He had 6 seasons where he was at 50% or higher during his prime (up through 2013).

If you look at Lebron from up until 2013 in this stat, he has 0 seasons that hit the 50% mark.


It isn't until 2014, where he hits the 50% mark, then his 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons are all at the 50%.

Lebron peaked in 2016 at 55%.

It's funny that during the heart of Lebron's athletic peak and general prime in many people's estimations (first stint Cleveland and Heatles days), not as much of Lebron's offense was coming at the rim.

It is generally in the later years, of pace and space basketball, where Lebron's offense at the rim skyrockets.

To me these highlights how special of a slasher Wade was, that in an era that was more packed in a paint, how he still stood out compared to an GOAT-level slasher in Lebron. It also, kind of highlights, how prolific slashers are able to get more of their offense at the rim than ever before, even during their non-athletic primes, as offense has evolved.

[Peregrine01]

On the wade part I just don't know man lol. He's a complete outlier athletic marvel. DeAaron Fox has been shooting like 75% at the rim the last four seasons, albeit on much less volume. Wade has similar speed while being 20 pounds heavier and generally a craftier finisher. I don't see how the LeBron stuff calls anything into question, it seems like it only reinforces the point that it's easier to score at the rim now if LeBron at age 40 is capable of this volume and efficiency. A younger wade, who is faster with a better motor at this point etc. would ... idk. It's just clear that he could get to the rim whenever he wanted. He did so back then, and he'd do so now, even more easily. If you disagree with that, idk. LeBron is 6'8" 240. Ja Morant is 6'2" or 6'3" 180 pounds. SGA is 6'5" 195 pounds. Wade is a legit 6'4" 225. He had between 30 and 40 pounds on both of them. Just looking at the eye test, measurements aside, Wade is just much denser and more powerful than either of them. Just by weight difference and body composition, Wade is more similar to LeBron, those guys are literal twigs compared to Wade.

I think people tend to conflate quickness with finishing ability. It's entirely possible that Bron has become a better finisher in his old age compared to his younger years. Take Luka for example - he's been one of the best finishers in the paint for years now, and much better than Westbrook was in his prime or Ja currently. His ability to control his speed and decelerate so he can make better decisions and isn't throwing something wild at the glass is a big reason why he's so good at the rim. Plus he has incredible touch, has a variety of finishing moves, uses his size and sturdiness extremely well and is one of the greatest passers in traffic that we've ever seen.

Wade in 2009/2010 was not the outlier paint scorer relative to that era that Luka is now. He would certainly be more effective in the paint in today's game but it's far from a foregone conclusion that he'd match the best guys in the paint today.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Yep.

The "somehow" is that Lebron is big and tall. Wade is(in a nba sense) not. That actual guards like sga or morant do not offer a bigger rim-threat than a greatly diminished Lebron offers(never mind Giannis) is a concern if you are actually worried about impact and not slashlines.

An interesting claim given that Giannis has seen significantly more team-success in the regular season and the playoffs than Jokic and is a direct peer for him in any sort of impact-on-winning comparison. Wade is a guard and obviously will not be touching Giannis's influence on that end.

Jokic is much better than Giannis. Just peep the 2023 postseason for evidence. Every time Jokic lost in the playoffs he was supposed to lose, because he had the worse team due to injuries. He's beaten Kawhi and PG,beat the blazers basically by himself

"Giannis is much better than Jokic, peep the 2022 and 2021 postseason for evidence"

Jokic's Nuggets have done alot worse than losing to the arguable 2nd best team/eventual finalist. I also don't know what your basis for "jokic would never lose to the heat with x" is when Jokic's Nuggets  put up less of a fight vs the Lakers than a hobbled Miami team despite Jokic's teammate assisting/scoring more combined points while facing more defensive attention from ad/lebron/dwight.

, etc. In comparison, Giannis was upset in 2020 and 2023. He only won a championship when all the other elite players were injured. Jokic is in the middle of having the type of BPM/Ws/48, PER, EPM, etc. whatever advanced stats you choose, that only MJ and LeBron rivaled at their peak. He averaged a 26 point triple double on 70 (!!!) TS%.

If by advanced stat you mean made-up slashline derivatives...you're still wrong because any stat that prioritized defensive actions or ball-handling would see Jokic look worse than the likes of Giannis and Luka respectively. Lebron is advantaged with either. It's not "whatever" stats you choose, it's "whatever stats" don't count or weigh Jokic's weaknesses enough for him to not look so good.

If you mean actual objective(or objective-adjacent) data then no. Jokic consistently loses to Embid in RAPM(never mind Lebron) and his best real-world signals don't touch James. His playoff on/off is also weirdly horrible. By any serious use of statistics Giannis is a peer, whether you go by regular season or playoffs:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2299872&p=110066251&hilit=giannis#p110066251
(you can control f for "challenger")

A TLDR:
 

-> similarish WOWY for rs and playoffs, if you went for a single-year jokic's 2023 has the most favorable upside I think assuming no teammate improvement in the postseason, but Giannis has an rs advantage with 19/20
-> similarish RAPM though I guess i'd give jokic an edge without longetivity considerations
-> Jokic a decent rs on/off advantage, giannis a big playoff on/off advantage
-> giannis's teams improve more in a raw-rating sense but wif you used a more binary approach like "srs-titles" or whatever giannis might come at a disadvantage(
-> giannis sports a longetivity advantage that is potentially suppressing averages to a degree
-> split apm-box hybrids though as mentioned, i think that's of dubious utility comparing defensive juggernaut with an offensive one

He has been less successful and he doesn't gain notable seperation individually unless you start cherrypicking what basketball actions you want to count.

I don't really know what the last line is supposed to prove. No one is arguing Jokic is a worse offensive player than Giannis.

And no, it's not a concern, because DWade is much bigger and stronger than both SGA and JA Morant while also being faster. He

He is closer to both of them than he is to Lebron in terms of physique. So yes, Lebron being able to be simialrly effective as a rim-scorer(more effective in 2023) calls into question in your theory that spacing would make his impact would go up as opposed to down.

I mean it's all about how each individual interprets the data before them and each individual context a player finds themselves in. Playoff on/off would have you believe Embiid is a better PS performer than Jokic to this point, though I think many would disagree.

[OhayoKD]

Jokic is much better than Giannis. Just peep the 2023 postseason for evidence. Every time Jokic lost in the playoffs he was supposed to lose, because he had the worse team due to injuries. He's beaten Kawhi and PG,beat the blazers basically by himself

"Giannis is much better than Jokic, peep the 2022 and 2021 postseason for evidence"

Jokic's Nuggets have done alot worse than losing to the arguable 2nd best team/eventual finalist. I also don't know what your basis for "jokic would never lose to the heat with x" is when Jokic's Nuggets  put up less of a fight vs the Lakers than a hobbled Miami team despite Jokic's teammate assisting/scoring more combined points while facing more defensive attention from ad/lebron/dwight.

, etc. In comparison, Giannis was upset in 2020 and 2023. He only won a championship when all the other elite players were injured. Jokic is in the middle of having the type of BPM/Ws/48, PER, EPM, etc. whatever advanced stats you choose, that only MJ and LeBron rivaled at their peak. He averaged a 26 point triple double on 70 (!!!) TS%.

If by advanced stat you mean made-up slashline derivatives...you're still wrong because any stat that prioritized defensive actions or ball-handling would see Jokic look worse than the likes of Giannis and Luka respectively. Lebron is advantaged with either. It's not "whatever" stats you choose, it's "whatever stats" don't count or weigh Jokic's weaknesses enough for him to not look so good.

If you mean actual objective(or objective-adjacent) data then no. Jokic consistently loses to Embid in RAPM(never mind Lebron) and his best real-world signals don't touch James. His playoff on/off is also weirdly horrible. By any serious use of statistics Giannis is a peer, whether you go by regular season or playoffs:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2299872&p=110066251&hilit=giannis#p110066251
(you can control f for "challenger")

A TLDR:
 

-> similarish WOWY for rs and playoffs, if you went for a single-year jokic's 2023 has the most favorable upside I think assuming no teammate improvement in the postseason, but Giannis has an rs advantage with 19/20
-> similarish RAPM though I guess i'd give jokic an edge without longetivity considerations
-> Jokic a decent rs on/off advantage, giannis a big playoff on/off advantage
-> giannis's teams improve more in a raw-rating sense but wif you used a more binary approach like "srs-titles" or whatever giannis might come at a disadvantage(
-> giannis sports a longetivity advantage that is potentially suppressing averages to a degree
-> split apm-box hybrids though as mentioned, i think that's of dubious utility comparing defensive juggernaut with an offensive one

He has been less successful and he doesn't gain notable seperation individually unless you start cherrypicking what basketball actions you want to count.

I don't really know what the last line is supposed to prove. No one is arguing Jokic is a worse offensive player than Giannis.

And no, it's not a concern, because DWade is much bigger and stronger than both SGA and JA Morant while also being faster. He

He is closer to both of them than he is to Lebron in terms of physique. So yes, Lebron being able to be simialrly effective as a rim-scorer(more effective in 2023) calls into question in your theory that spacing would make his impact would go up as opposed to down.

I mean it's all about how each individual interprets the data before them and each individual context a player finds themselves in. Playoff on/off would have you believe Embiid is a better PS performer than Jokic to this point, though I think many would disagree.

We can certainly debate interpretations, but that is different from listing a bunch of metrics that prioritize offensive actions(minus jokic's biggest weakness as an offensive player) and then saying "whatever stat you look at" will favor Jokic when there are obvious inputs one can use to mark him lower like:

Spoiler:

If someone uses this input for a bunch of made-up stats that see Embid as a better playoff performer than Jokic, are you going to take his on/off advantage more seriously?

[khaltheball]

The disparity in responses between this and the kobe thread are pretty wild. Kobe's case for "not optimized in era" is much stronger.

Would take Giannis and Jokic. Embid theoretically better but needs a healthy postseason. Steph may have a case too. Small slashers should stand out less in today's league. In a league where a near 40-Lebron is harder to stop at the rim than shai or ja statistically, not seeing how people are expecting Wade to improve.

Wade's 2008-2009 season was almost on par with LeBron's best RS arguably in a lesser era for offenses to thrive compared to now.

Based on?

That aside, lesser era for offenses isn't meaningful either way inofitself. The point is to stand out from the field, not to up your raw production.

I think sga is a decent comp,Wade woukd attack more both can’t shoot threes but sga is much deadlier in midrange ; or a bigger stronger much better defensively Ja morant with a better midrange game I think . I feel like Wade woukd dominate today . Only issue is his lack of 3 ball he wouldn’t really be able to be off ball as much as he wants . I think Wade is a guy who woukd thrive in this era more than his own ; you can see it with older Lebron . Kobe was perfect for his era more so but woukd still be good but not sure gets as much a boost

I think Wade woukd be a better sga the more I think of it. Yes a weaker midrange pull up, but he’s be getting just as many Fta and probably more legit ones. He’s better defensively than sga who I think metrics over value due to steals . And many players have said Wade was the hardest guy to guard /theiugh screens : you knew he couldn’t shoot n you still couldn’t stop him . Modern players are mostly offence only . It’s why embid n sga are miles ahead in epm
This year and Lebron n AD continue to be top 10 n Giannis top 4 without huge offensive onky signals . The gap between a -1/2 defender like Luka and a + 2 defender like Wade makes me think peak Wade is top 3 and imo woukd have a very solid case for number 1 considering never having playoff issues. I could only see embid if he translates this lvl to the playoffs as clearly over him. Sga too but I never feel wowed watched him so
I’m
Not fully buying epm he’s incredibly consistent though n a deep scoring bag .

[Pelly24]

On the wade part I just don't know man lol. He's a complete outlier athletic marvel. DeAaron Fox has been shooting like 75% at the rim the last four seasons, albeit on much less volume. Wade has similar speed while being 20 pounds heavier and generally a craftier finisher. I don't see how the LeBron stuff calls anything into question, it seems like it only reinforces the point that it's easier to score at the rim now if LeBron at age 40 is capable of this volume and efficiency. A younger wade, who is faster with a better motor at this point etc. would ... idk. It's just clear that he could get to the rim whenever he wanted. He did so back then, and he'd do so now, even more easily. If you disagree with that, idk. LeBron is 6'8" 240. Ja Morant is 6'2" or 6'3" 180 pounds. SGA is 6'5" 195 pounds. Wade is a legit 6'4" 225. He had between 30 and 40 pounds on both of them. Just looking at the eye test, measurements aside, Wade is just much denser and more powerful than either of them. Just by weight difference and body composition, Wade is more similar to LeBron, those guys are literal twigs compared to Wade.

I think people tend to conflate quickness with finishing ability. It's entirely possible that Bron has become a better finisher in his old age compared to his younger years. Take Luka for example - he's been one of the best finishers in the paint for years now, and much better than Westbrook was in his prime or Ja currently. His ability to control his speed and decelerate so he can make better decisions and isn't throwing something wild at the glass is a big reason why he's so good at the rim. Plus he has incredible touch, has a variety of finishing moves, uses his size and sturdiness extremely well and is one of the greatest passers in traffic that we've ever seen.

Wade in 2009/2010 was not the outlier paint scorer relative to that era that Luka is now. He would certainly be more effective in the paint in today's game but it's far from a foregone conclusion that he'd match the best guys in the paint today.

This could just be a weird thing with like takeoff and landing distance or something, but Luka technically only got to the rim 82 times this year, but he's finishing at 82%. All combined hes at 227 attempts from 3-10 feet and then at the rim for about 7.32 attempts in that range per game, and in 2022-2023, he was at 9.4 attempts in this range, Wade, in 2008-2009, was at 727 attempts in 79 games, for 9.3 attempts in that range per game. Both scored at around 63-64% in this range, with Wade having far more attempts at the literal rim than Luka. It seems like it's pretty fair to think DWade would actually be a better finisher/paint scorer than Luka today, as his stats were actually more prolific and about as efficient or more efficient than Luka's during an era with a comparatively packed paint and for the heat, pretty much no shooters compared to the current mavericks. I think Wade would be one of the best finishers in the game today, easily, and given that he's as fast as DeAaron Fox and Morant while being much heavier with bigger hands and more power, I think he would dwarf their totals. There's a chance he'd have more rim attempts than both of them combined. He had 581 rim attempts in 2008-2009, and ja and DeAaron fox, the most athletic guards of today, had 612 combined. And the paint is way more open these days, so totally realistic.

It is possible that LeBron improved as a finisher with older age, but it's not as though he was some brute with no finesse back then. He came into the league making Kyrie-esque left-handed layups and floaters, etc. He had amazing dexterity that improved through his young years, but I don't think he would have improved that much skill wise on finishing between then and now — he was incredibly dexterous by 2008.

But yeah. That's my take. It might sound like a rash conclusion, but this is arguably the fastest and most powerful guard in NBA history in an era where people like Donovan Mitchell and Damian Lillard are dominating. They have the shooting, but Wade is bigger and more athletic than both with arguably even better handle and all-around midrange skill, cutting off ball, etc.

[Pelly24]

A stat called “rim and FT TSA percentage” combines attempts at the rim and free throw attempts as a shorthand for how much of a player’s offense comes at the basket. It’s a nice quick indicator, especially for perimeter players. It’s also really good at spotting a decline in athleticism and penetration.

Anything above 50 percent is really historic for non-big men, and sometimes big forwards who can slash and play around the basket will cross over that 50 percent line.

Wade peaked at 57%. He had 6 seasons where he was at 50% or higher during his prime (up through 2013).

If you look at Lebron from up until 2013 in this stat, he has 0 seasons that hit the 50% mark.


It isn't until 2014, where he hits the 50% mark, then his 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons are all at the 50%.

Lebron peaked in 2016 at 55%.

It's funny that during the heart of Lebron's athletic peak and general prime in many people's estimations (first stint Cleveland and Heatles days), not as much of Lebron's offense was coming at the rim.

It is generally in the later years, of pace and space basketball, where Lebron's offense at the rim skyrockets.

To me these highlights how special of a slasher Wade was, that in an era that was more packed in a paint, how he still stood out compared to an GOAT-level slasher in Lebron. It also, kind of highlights, how prolific slashers are able to get more of their offense at the rim than ever before, even during their non-athletic primes, as offense has evolved.

Exactly lol. Like I don't see how people don't think Wade would simply run directly by defenders today for finishes low. I saw Dame just carve up teams at the rim last year, and while he's very athletic and skilled, he's basically a neutral at best when compared to Wade. Wade was basically unstoppable even without a three-ball and being kinda mid shooting free throws at times.

[trex_8063]

And we consider Jimmy a borderline top 10 player in the league most years. When he is ranked higher it's in the playoffs, and not coincidentally that's when he starts hitting 3s.

Butler doesn't shoot threes better than prime Wade in the playoffs though.

TBH, by most advanced stats and the outcomes of his teams — their records always get way better when he gets there and they're always a lot less successful when he leaves — Jimmy's been a legit top 8 player the last six or seven years. And he's got the finals appearances and LeBron, D-Wade esque playoff runs to prove it's not a fluke. Guaranteed 21/6/6 on +5 or 6 TS% with elite defense and the ability to run an offense, hit clutch shots and free throws and scale down from a 1st to 3rd or 4th option. Jimmy is amazing, a legit top 10 player, not borderline.

I'd also add Butler's ball-control/turnover economy is significantly bested by precisely zero high usage wings in NBA history (unless we're calling Shai or Haliburton "wings" because they're similar sized). Point is: Jimmy's low-mistake ball-control is phenomenal. His last 3+ seasons collectively: 21.8 ppg, 5.7 apg, 1.9 topg. In the post-season [same years]: 26.0 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.7 topg.
He just does not f***-up with the ball often.

There may have been seasons in recent years which I would have ranked as "borderline top 10", but only because of missed games (which affect how I rank/consider a player-season). But the actual quality of player he's been when he does play......yeah, I agree. The amount of total offensive load he's able to carry, on the degree of efficiency he's able to do it with, while also giving you the kind of defense he provides........he hasn't NOT been at least top 8-9 in the league for awhile, imo.

[HeartBreakKid]

A stat called “rim and FT TSA percentage” combines attempts at the rim and free throw attempts as a shorthand for how much of a player’s offense comes at the basket. It’s a nice quick indicator, especially for perimeter players. It’s also really good at spotting a decline in athleticism and penetration.

Anything above 50 percent is really historic for non-big men, and sometimes big forwards who can slash and play around the basket will cross over that 50 percent line.

Wade peaked at 57%. He had 6 seasons where he was at 50% or higher during his prime (up through 2013).

If you look at Lebron from up until 2013 in this stat, he has 0 seasons that hit the 50% mark.


It isn't until 2014, where he hits the 50% mark, then his 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons are all at the 50%.

Lebron peaked in 2016 at 55%.

It's funny that during the heart of Lebron's athletic peak and general prime in many people's estimations (first stint Cleveland and Heatles days), not as much of Lebron's offense was coming at the rim.

It is generally in the later years, of pace and space basketball, where Lebron's offense at the rim skyrockets.

To me these highlights how special of a slasher Wade was, that in an era that was more packed in a paint, how he still stood out compared to an GOAT-level slasher in Lebron. It also, kind of highlights, how prolific slashers are able to get more of their offense at the rim than ever before, even during their non-athletic primes, as offense has evolved.

Exactly lol. Like I don't see how people don't think Wade would simply run directly by defenders today for finishes low. I saw Dame just carve up teams at the rim last year, and while he's very athletic and skilled, he's basically a neutral at best when compared to Wade. Wade was basically unstoppable even without a three-ball and being kinda mid shooting free throws at times.

I mean Lillard being one of the best 3 point shooters of all time plays a gigantic factor in why he can get to the rim. Steph Curry can get to the rim easily too. Lillard gets past his defenders because they have to play too close to him which doesn't apply to Wade.

Wade is nothing like Lillard, so you can't use A>B>C logic there.

[Pelly24]

Butler doesn't shoot threes better than prime Wade in the playoffs though.

TBH, by most advanced stats and the outcomes of his teams — their records always get way better when he gets there and they're always a lot less successful when he leaves — Jimmy's been a legit top 8 player the last six or seven years. And he's got the finals appearances and LeBron, D-Wade esque playoff runs to prove it's not a fluke. Guaranteed 21/6/6 on +5 or 6 TS% with elite defense and the ability to run an offense, hit clutch shots and free throws and scale down from a 1st to 3rd or 4th option. Jimmy is amazing, a legit top 10 player, not borderline.

I'd also add Butler's ball-control/turnover economy is significantly bested by precisely zero high usage wings in NBA history (unless we're calling Shai or Haliburton "wings" because they're similar sized). Point is: Jimmy's low-mistake ball-control is phenomenal. His last 3+ seasons collectively: 21.8 ppg, 5.7 apg, 1.9 topg. In the post-season [same years]: 26.0 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.7 topg.
He just does not f***-up with the ball often.

There may have been seasons in recent years which I would have ranked as "borderline top 10", but only because of missed games (which affect how I rank/consider a player-season). But the actual quality of player he's been when he does play......yeah, I agree. The amount of total offensive load he's able to carry, on the degree of efficiency he's able to do it with, while also giving you the kind of defense he provides........he hasn't NOT been at least top 8-9 in the league for awhile, imo.

Exactly, people underrated the value of taking care of the ball. LeBron is kind of like that too, better playmaker, but turns the ball over a bit more. But basically, Jimmy is nearly a guaranteed positive possession player most of the time and he's an elite defender who can move around varied roles on a team — from hustle player to offense initiator to clutch half court volume scorer — without losing effectiveness. He's one of the most underrated players ever, and he's been incredibly valuable in most tangible ways.