1995 Finals - Shaq v. Hakeem Tracking

[Djoker]

The 1995 Finals featured an epic big man duel between young Shaquille O'Neal and Hakeem Olajuwon. This is my tracking of the two big men in the series and how they fared against each other.



For much of the series, the two men guarded each other. In fact, for most of the time they were on the floor, they were matched up unless one of them was in foul trouble. In those instances, Orlando used Horace Grant on Hakeem and Houston used Charles Jones on Shaq. On a few possessions, both Hakeem and Shaq were switched onto other smaller players who contested them.

Apart from shooting, the tracking also includes fouls drawn and turnovers but I only included turnovers caused by the other player. For example, if Hakeem drew a charge on Shaq or stripped Shaq of the ball, I counted those but if Shaq threw a bad pass that got intercepted by Kenny Smith, I didn't count that.



Game 1: Orlando 118 - 120 Houston (OT)

Shaq: +6 ON, -8 OFF
Hakeem: -7 ON, +9 OFF

When Both ON: Orlando 90 - 77 Houston

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 19 points, 7/12 shooting, 5/7 FT, 4 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Hakeem: 19 points, 8/17 shooting, 3/5 FT, 3 fouls drawn, 1 turnover



Game 2: Orlando 106 - 117 Houston

Shaq: -3 ON, -8 OFF
Hakeem: +5 ON, +6 OFF

When Both ON: Orlando 92 - 93 Houston

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 18 points, 8/15 shooting, 2/2 FT, 2 fouls drawn, 1 turnover
Hakeem: 18 points, 8/19 shooting, 2/5 FT, 3 fouls drawn, 0 turnovers



Game 3: Houston 106 - 103 Orlando

Shaq: +1 ON, -4 OFF
Hakeem: +4 ON, -1 OFF

When Both ON: Houston 96 - 95 Orlando

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 23 points, 10/16 shooting, 3/4 FT, 4 fouls drawn, 1 turnover
Hakeem: 16 points, 7/20 shooting, 2/3 FT, 2 fouls drawn, 0 turnovers



Game 4: Houston 113 - 101 Orlando

Shaq: -16 ON +4 OFF
Hakeem: +15 ON -3 OFF

When Both ON: Houston 106 - 87 Orlando

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 18 points, 9/16 shooting, 0/0 FT, 3 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Hakeem: 17 points, 7/17 shooting, 2/2 FT, 2 fouls drawn, 2 turnovers *one 3pt make



Series Summary

Scoring Margin: Houston +28

Shaq: -12 ON -16 OFF
Hakeem: +17 ON +11 OFF

When Both ON: Houston +7

Per 100 Possessions

Shaq ON: 111.8 ORtg, 115.2 DRtg, -3.4 Net Rtg
Hakeem ON: 115.3 ORtg, 110.5 DRtg, +4.8 Net Rtg

Shaq OFF: 89.3 ORtg, 136.9 DRtg, -47.6 Net Rtg
Hakeem OFF: 134.9 ORtg, 104.0 DRtg, +30.9 Net Rtg

Shaq ON-OFF: +44.2 Net Rtg
Hakeem ON-OFF: -26.1 Net Rtg



Series Totals - Man Defense

Hakeem
Defended by Shaq: 70 points, 44.0 %TS (30/73 FG, 9/15 FT), 10 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Defended by Grant: 42 points, 62.6 %TS (18/30 FG, 6/8 FT), 4 fouls drawn, 2 turnovers
Defended by Others/Undefended: 19 points, 66.3 %TS (8/13 FG, 3/3 FT), 4 fouls drawn

Shaq
Defended by Hakeem: 78 points, 59.3 %TS (34/60 FG, 10/13 FT), 13 fouls drawn, 8 turnovers
Defended by Jones: 19 points, 60.4 %TS (6/10 FG, 7/13 FT), 8 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Defended by Others/Undefended: 15 points, 67.9 %TS (4/4 FG, 7/16 FT), 9 fouls drawn



Conclusions:

In the direct matchup, Shaq got the better of Hakeem scoring more on much higher efficiency and drawing more fouls on the other. Although Hakeem forced more turnovers on Shaq than vice versa, it's hard to say that Hakeem didn't lose the matchup.

it was a contrast of styles with Shaq overwhelming Hakeem with raw strength and athleticism and Hakeem getting the better of Shaq in face up situations beating him off the dribble and with his jukes, spins, and dream shakes.

As for who was the better overall player in the series, I'd probably call it a wash. Hakeem dominated when defended by Horace Grant who is a really good defender more so than Shaq dominated Charles Jones. Hakeem also had an edge in overall team defense although Shaq was quite good in this area himself. Shaq not only did a great job defending Hakeem but he blocked more shots than Olajuwon in the series and was very active defensively.

Ultimately the play of these two monsters isn't what determined the series. Excluding Drexler and Penny who in my opinion also played each other close to a draw, the supporting cast of the Rockets completely outplayed that of Orlando. Anderson after infamously missing the four free throws at the end of regulation in Game 1 was shook and never the same afterwards. Dennis Scott's shooting was off all series and he gave the team virtually nothing as well and since Anderson and Scott averaged around 40 mpg, that hurt the Magic a lot. On the other hand, the likes of Horry, Cassell, Elie and Kenny Smith were amazingly clutch, devastating in transition and shot the lights out from 3pt range. It was the Rockets' role players that won this series.

[Owly]

Always nice to see someone put work into tracking film.

There has been another thread on this some time ago which ... without checking closely ... similarly gave the impression that the brief off time contributed about as much of the gap (very roughly, depending on definitions i.e. who off) that contributed about as much to the net margin as the minutes they were on. Think it was this ... viewtopic.php?t=1242882

Also ... presumably Dennis Scott. Though I see that already got caught.

[D.Brasco]

I remember for years the myth persisted that Hakeem absolutely dominated Shaq in that series, when that was evidently not the case. Still hear people claiming that today time for time.

[Djoker]

One thing that I didn't track but also noticed on film is the significant number of really good passes Shaq made. Both he and Hakeem could pass out well and find shooters but Shaq threw some nice dimes to teammates for layups and dunks.

[Tomtolbert]

When they were guarding one another, which player seemed to draw more help defenders?

[Djoker]

When they were guarding one another, which player seemed to draw more help defenders?

Shaq saw more help but neither man was hard doubled much. Even the commentators talked about how both teams were hesitant to double because so many other guys are good shooters.

[Peregrine01]

The head-to-head stats pretty much jives with what I recall from that series. Shaq had dunks and short hooks. Hakeem took fadeaways. What's surprising to me is just how badly the Rockets beat up on the Magic when Hakeem sat.

[OhayoKD]

I remember for years the myth persisted that Hakeem absolutely dominated Shaq in that series, when that was evidently not the case. Still hear people claiming that today time for time.

Certainly not 1 v 1 (not sure anyone achieved that against prime Shaq)

[tsherkin]

The 1995 Finals featured an epic big man duel between young Shaquille O'Neal and Hakeem Olajuwon. This is my tracking of the two big men in the series and how they fared against each other.



For much of the series, the two men guarded each other. In fact, for most of the time they were on the floor, they were matched up unless one of them was in foul trouble. In those instances, Orlando used Horace Grant on Hakeem and Houston used Charles Jones on Shaq. On a few possessions, both Hakeem and Shaq were switched onto other smaller players who contested them.

Apart from shooting, the tracking also includes fouls drawn and turnovers but I only included turnovers caused by the other player. For example, if Hakeem drew a charge on Shaq or stripped Shaq of the ball, I counted those but if Shaq threw a bad pass that got intercepted by Kenny Smith, I didn't count that.



Game 1: Orlando 118 - 120 Houston (OT)

Shaq: +6 ON, -8 OFF
Hakeem: -7 ON, +9 OFF

When Both ON: Orlando 90 - 77 Houston

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 19 points, 7/12 shooting, 5/7 FT, 4 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Hakeem: 19 points, 8/17 shooting, 3/5 FT, 3 fouls drawn, 1 turnover



Game 2: Orlando 106 - 117 Houston

Shaq: -3 ON, -8 OFF
Hakeem: +5 ON, +6 OFF

When Both ON: Orlando 92 - 93 Houston

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 18 points, 8/15 shooting, 2/2 FT, 2 fouls drawn, 1 turnover
Hakeem: 18 points, 8/19 shooting, 2/5 FT, 3 fouls drawn, 0 turnovers



Game 3: Houston 106 - 103 Orlando

Shaq: +1 ON, -4 OFF
Hakeem: +4 ON, -1 OFF

When Both ON: Houston 96 - 95 Orlando

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 23 points, 10/16 shooting, 3/4 FT, 4 fouls drawn, 1 turnover
Hakeem: 16 points, 7/20 shooting, 2/3 FT, 2 fouls drawn, 0 turnovers



Game 4: Houston 113 - 101 Orlando

Shaq: -16 ON +4 OFF
Hakeem: +15 ON -3 OFF

When Both ON: Houston 106 - 87 Orlando

When Defending Each Other
Shaq: 18 points, 9/16 shooting, 0/0 FT, 3 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Hakeem: 17 points, 7/17 shooting, 2/2 FT, 2 fouls drawn, 2 turnovers *one 3pt make



Series Summary

Scoring Margin: Houston +28

Shaq: -12 ON -16 OFF
Hakeem: +17 ON +11 OFF

When Both ON: Houston +7

Per 100 Possessions

Shaq ON: 111.8 ORtg, 115.2 DRtg, -3.4 Net Rtg
Hakeem ON: 115.3 ORtg, 110.5 DRtg, +4.8 Net Rtg

Shaq OFF: 89.3 ORtg, 136.9 DRtg, -47.6 Net Rtg
Hakeem OFF: 134.9 ORtg, 104.0 DRtg, +30.9 Net Rtg

Shaq ON-OFF: +44.2 Net Rtg
Hakeem ON-OFF: -26.1 Net Rtg



Series Totals - Man Defense

Hakeem
Defended by Shaq: 70 points, 44.0 %TS (30/73 FG, 9/15 FT), 10 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Defended by Grant: 42 points, 62.6 %TS (18/30 FG, 6/8 FT), 4 fouls drawn, 2 turnovers
Defended by Others/Undefended: 19 points, 66.3 %TS (8/13 FG, 3/3 FT), 4 fouls drawn

Shaq
Defended by Hakeem: 78 points, 59.3 %TS (34/60 FG, 10/13 FT), 13 fouls drawn, 8 turnovers
Defended by Jones: 19 points, 60.4 %TS (6/10 FG, 7/13 FT), 8 fouls drawn, 3 turnovers
Defended by Others/Undefended: 15 points, 67.9 %TS (4/4 FG, 7/16 FT), 9 fouls drawn



Conclusions:

In the direct matchup, Shaq got the better of Hakeem scoring more on much higher efficiency and drawing more fouls on the other. Although Hakeem forced more turnovers on Shaq than vice versa, it's hard to say that Hakeem didn't lose the matchup.

it was a contrast of styles with Shaq overwhelming Hakeem with raw strength and athleticism and Hakeem getting the better of Shaq in face up situations beating him off the dribble and with his jukes, spins, and dream shakes.

As for who was the better overall player in the series, I'd probably call it a wash. Hakeem dominated when defended by Horace Grant who is a really good defender more so than Shaq dominated Charles Jones. Hakeem also had an edge in overall team defense although Shaq was quite good in this area himself. Shaq not only did a great job defending Hakeem but he blocked more shots than Olajuwon in the series and was very active defensively.

Ultimately the play of these two monsters isn't what determined the series. Excluding Drexler and Penny who in my opinion also played each other close to a draw, the supporting cast of the Rockets completely outplayed that of Orlando. Anderson after infamously missing the four free throws at the end of regulation in Game 1 was shook and never the same afterwards. Dennis Scott's shooting was off all series and he gave the team virtually nothing as well and since Anderson and Scott averaged around 40 mpg, that hurt the Magic a lot. On the other hand, the likes of Horry, Cassell, Elie and Kenny Smith were amazingly clutch, devastating in transition and shot the lights out from 3pt range. It was the Rockets' role players that won this series.

Great work; thanks for this!

[D.Brasco]

I remember for years the myth persisted that Hakeem absolutely dominated Shaq in that series, when that was evidently not the case. Still hear people claiming that today time for time.

Certainly not 1 v 1 (not sure anyone achieved that against prime Shaq)

Yeah, that was the retort some people tried to use when Shaq was steamrolling centers in the early 2000s. People would say he was playing against cans and he got exposed back when he faced a Hakeem. No, a 23 year old Shaq did quite good.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think the domination narrative is what happens when a guy avgs like 34/12 and his team sweeps the other 4-0. Shaq& Penny held up well but Scott and Anderson **** the bed hard while Elie was insanely good from long range. The Rockets' experience was way too much for Orl.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

A much sturdier challenge in comparison to that cannon fodder Shaq feasted on in those 3peat Finals years.

2000: 33 year old ready to retire injury ridden Rik Smits only playing half a game in minutes that season and 38 year old Sam Perkins.

2001: 34 year old Mutombo who was only DPOY because Shaq slacked off and anchored a very underwhelming defense in the regular season that year.

2002: I don't even know who he was facing in that series.

He never liked playing against guys like Olajuwon, Duncan or Karl Malone (forced to defend him on many switches) that could take him outside and force him to defend outside the paint.

Even if he defended Hakeem rather well, him being forced fo step out the paint opened things up for Clyde not having to worry about interior defense as much. In his 3peat Finals he could just camp out uninhibited in the paint not worry much about anyone defensively.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

I think the domination narrative is what happens when a guy avgs like 34/12 and his team sweeps the other 4-0. Shaq& Penny held up well but Scott and Anderson **** the bed hard while Elie was insanely good from long range. The Rockets' experience was way too much for Orl.

They shouldn't have lost that series in such a manner.

Poor shooting from Scott/Anderson and some dubious leadership/effort from Shaq on down.

They got killed in transition in that series and given they were the younger team, that was just inexcusable and boiled down to concentration and effort.

Yes they were facing a team firing on all cylinders offensively, but they weren't exactly facing the 86 Celtics, 96 Bulls or 17 Warriors.

[70sFan]

Thank you so much for this work, I will need it for my future project and I hope you'll be kind to allow me use these numbers.

I wonder if you made any distinction between types of shots taken when guarded by each other. For example, how much Hakeem shot from the post, how much outside the paint etc.

Shaw in general was a very imposing man defender. He did the same to Duncan, who struggled immensely with Shaq's length and size, forcing him into midrange scorer. I don't want to go sideways, but I can post Duncan vs Shaq numbers from 2002 and 2003 series.

If you are not Dirk, then such scenario won't work for you, even though Hakeem was a solid midrange shooter.

[MacGill]

Yesssiirrr! About a decade back, I rewatched the entire series again, as a huge Shaq fan, to combat the narrative that he was destroyed! Nothing further from the truth! I'll take Shaq's first 14 years against almost anyone else in league history. What many miss is that while he wasn't as flashy, or agile in the PnR, he is arguably the greatest portable player in history as you get a top 2 peak that can basically mesh together with any other superstar playing style. He doesn't get enough credit here as his game really takes nothing away from any other 1-4 positions. Great work!

[homecourtloss]

I think the domination narrative is what happens when a guy avgs like 34/12 and his team sweeps the other 4-0. Shaq& Penny held up well but Scott and Anderson **** the bed hard while Elie was insanely good from long range. The Rockets' experience was way too much for Orl.

They shouldn't have lost that series in such a manner.

Poor shooting from Scott/Anderson and some dubious leadership/effort from Shaq on down.

They got killed in transition in that series and given they were the younger team, that was just inexcusable and boiled down to concentration and effort.

Yes they were facing a team firing on all cylinders offensively, but they weren't exactly facing the 86 Celtics, 96 Bulls or 17 Warriors.

I watched this series as a teen while being a Hakeem and Rockets fan. The entire series might have turned out differently had Anderson not missed four straight FTs up three, 110-107, at the end of regulation. They would have played less tightly in game 2 while the Rockets would not have been as loose.

As it is, the Rockets were a flawed team, but the Magic couldn’t take advantage of those flaws. Rockets were a below average rebounding team while the Magic were a very good offensive rebounding team but not in the series. Rockets were turnover prone while the Magic were not, but that was reversed in the Finals. Hakeem, in particular, had a good series making the right pass and not turning it over.

Dennis Scott missed a bunch of open and wide open threes at key moments in this series. Orlando had a mediocre defense all year, which the Rockets exposed.

[Djoker]

Thank you so much for this work, I will need it for my future project and I hope you'll be kind to allow me use these numbers.

I wonder if you made any distinction between types of shots taken when guarded by each other. For example, how much Hakeem shot from the post, how much outside the paint etc.

Shaw in general was a very imposing man defender. He did the same to Duncan, who struggled immensely with Shaq's length and size, forcing him into midrange scorer. I don't want to go sideways, but I can post Duncan vs Shaq numbers from 2002 and 2003 series.

If you are not Dirk, then such scenario won't work for you, even though Hakeem was a solid midrange shooter.

Yes my man. You can use the numbers!

Hakeem's shot selection was very diverse against Shaq. He tried to take him off the dribble in face ups, he tried the dream shake in the post, he tried fadeaway J's. Generally speaking, the shots Hakeem took on the move like from a face up where he could create an angle were much more effective. Deliberate post moves had a very low degree of success. Unfortunately I didn't track by shot type so these are just general trends.

[Djoker]

I think the domination narrative is what happens when a guy avgs like 34/12 and his team sweeps the other 4-0. Shaq& Penny held up well but Scott and Anderson **** the bed hard while Elie was insanely good from long range. The Rockets' experience was way too much for Orl.

They shouldn't have lost that series in such a manner.

Poor shooting from Scott/Anderson and some dubious leadership/effort from Shaq on down.

They got killed in transition in that series and given they were the younger team, that was just inexcusable and boiled down to concentration and effort.

Yes they were facing a team firing on all cylinders offensively, but they weren't exactly facing the 86 Celtics, 96 Bulls or 17 Warriors.

I watched this series as a teen while being a Hakeem and Rockets fan. The entire series might have turned out differently had Anderson not missed four straight FTs up three, 110-107, at the end of regulation. They would have played less tightly in game 2 while the Rockets would not have been as loose.

As it is, the Rockets were a flawed team, but the Magic couldn’t take advantage of those flaws. Rockets were a below average rebounding team while the Magic were a very good offensive rebounding team but not in the series. Rockets were turnover prone while the Magic were not, but that was reversed in the Finals. Hakeem, in particular, had a good series making the right pass and not turning it over.

Dennis Scott missed a bunch of open and wide open threes at key moments in this series. Orlando had a mediocre defense all year, which the Rockets exposed.

Yea Anderson's FT misses almost completely took him out of the series afterwards. And given that he was on the court for ~40 mpg, him contributing more could have made a big difference. However, I still think the Rockets would have won the series in like 6 games even if Orlando took Game 1. As you said, Orlando had defensive issues and just generally made more mistakes when it came to execution turning the ball over in bad moments.