Snakebites wrote:The fact that we’re even having this discussion is a sign of how normalized Jokic’s greatness has become.
He’s clearly been better. If you wanna debate SGA vs Luka that’s fine, but it’s for second place.
Yeah, I think SGA vs. Luka is actually a genuinely good debate. Personally, I’d have SGA as my #2 pick for MVP.
SGA’s team won significantly more than Luka’s (57 wins vs. 50 wins), and have an even more significant gap in SRS (7.36 vs. 2.30). And that’s without some gaping talent difference between the teams (I do think the Thunder were a better supporting cast, particularly since they were healthier, but it’s not some massive difference IMO). So the team success factor definitely goes in SGA’s favor IMO. Meanwhile, in terms of stats, I think a cursory look at box stats would tell you that Luka is ahead here. But it’s a bit of a different story if looking closer. In terms of box-composites, Luka is ahead by a little bit in BBREF BPM and Thinking Basketball BPM, while SGA is ahead by a little bit in win shares and PER. The stats Luka is ahead in are better metrics IMO, but there’s not a big difference here either way, and box composites don’t do a good job accounting for defense (which is an area SGA has an advantage). Meanwhile, in impact stats, I think it’s similarly a bit of a wash. SGA is a bit ahead in EPM and LEBRON, while Luka is a bit ahead in DPM, and they have the same AuPM/g. SGA’s raw on-off is a bit higher than Luka’s and his “on” value is a good deal ahead. There’s unfortunately not a lot of other impact stats out there this year. So, on balance, I’d say the impact stats go slightly in SGA’s favor, but not a big difference here either way. In terms of their availability, I don’t think there’s really a meaningful difference. SGA played 5 more games, but Luka had more minutes. In theory that’s a wash, though it’s probably more like slight advantage to SGA, since the minutes difference is in significant part just sitting fourth quarters in games his team dominated early.
So I guess the way I see it is this: SGA has a meaningful advantage in team success. In terms of individual stats, I don’t really see a gap either way, with box and impact stats both being very close (with, I’d say, a slight box advantage to Luka and a slight impact advantage to SGA). Meanwhile, I don’t think availability or any other factor moves the scales here. Which leaves me favoring SGA as basically a player with very similarly good stats and more team success.