AEnigma wrote:VOTE: James Worthy (Alternate: Connie Hawkins) Three titles total, two titles as the team’s second-best player, and one title which featured a Game 7 performance extraordinary enough to earn Finals MVP. I do not think there are a hundred players more important to the story of the league, and excluding him would feel like a significant misstep by that alone.
1984-91 Worthy in games with Magic: 19.2/5.6/3.1 with 2.0 turnovers on 57.8% efficiency (34.6 minutes per game) 1984-91 Worthy in 51 regular season games without Magic: 20.1/5.7/3.7 with 2.5 turnovers on 59.6% efficiency (35.4 minutes per game)
Chet is the closest here by balancing the best longevity of the group with the most NBA success as a team’s primary star, but ultimately he is more of an honourable mention for me. And seeing as he has no primary support, I will lend my alternate to Connie Hawkins to potentially fulfill that Bill Walton role at #100.
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
trex_8063 wrote: Bosh actually only averaged 15.6 ppg and 7.5 rpg in the playoffs.
Good catch - no idea how I got that wrong.
However, I'd note that nearly all of Worthy's playoff sample is playing next to Magic Johnson. Look what happened to his TS% as soon as Magic was forced to retire, while Worthy is still in his early 30s (and in spite of '92 and '93 being his two BEST seasons in FT%); and look at the one playoff series after Magic was gone (39.1% TS).
I know it's easy to just chalk it up to Magic retiring, but I think Worthy was already on a downward trajectory before that.
From 1982-83 to 1989-90, Worthy's TS ranged from 57.1% on the low end to 61.3% on the high end. Going from 1989-90 to 1990-91(Magic's last year), his TS dropped from 58.6% to 53.1% - a 5.5% drop, which is in fact higher than the 4.1% drop he'd take from 91 to 92.
Also, if you look at his playoff TS, his 54.5% in the 1990 playoffs was his lowest up to that point, before dropping to 50.2% in 1991(albeit he was hurt for some of that).
I think he was going to decline with or without Magic.
To add in [for info's sake] the topg averages in the playoffs: Worthy 2.1 topg in the playoffs; Bosh 1.4.
I was specifically looking at the a:t ratios.
Also there is rs output/accomplishment, which is not irrelevant (and in which I'd say Bosh narrowly outdoes Worthy [despite not playing to a Magic-like player for most of his career]). Narrowly outdoes him in accolades/media recognition, too, fwiw.
I really don't think Bosh would be getting much consideration here if he hadn't played with LBJ and Wade for four years. His time in Toronto does not make a strong enough case IMO.
Connie Hawkins
Best peak, ABA MVP, pushed Wilt/West to 7 post-injury.
Likely should have been voted earlier.
AEnigma wrote:A few closing notes:
- With Davies’ induction, a champion from every year has been represented (with ABA doubling in 1974-76). By my count there are ~30 non-champions on the list.
- The champions of 1946-56, 1958, 1975 (and 1974-76 ABA), 1977, 1994, 2016, 2021, and 2023 all have only one representative each. Those latter three will be interesting to monitor in future projects.
- Every Finals loser from 1957-23 is represented except for the 1976 Suns. Slight asterisk on the 1999 Knicks. I will note all four 1976 ABA conference finalists were represented.
- Every multi-time conference finalist post-merger has been represented. There were several one-offs who missed the cut, most notably the 2002 Kings.
- Every NBA MVP was inducted except for expected exclusion Derrick Rose, and the 2011 2nd through 8th place MVP finishers were all inducted. In fact, we inducted every 2nd place MVP finisher except 1984 Bernard King (who relatedly finished as our cutoff for MVP share exclusion) and zero-time all-NBA 1968 Lenny Wilkins. We also inducted two NBL MVPs and four total ABA MVPs (1972 Gilmore and 1974-76 Erving).
By this approach, it would seem the story of the league has been well captured by this project. Significantly better than the NBA or Athletics' version anyway
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
I know you are just posting lackadaisically, but gives me a decent opportunity to reiterate this:
AEnigma wrote:Hagan has two postseasons, across three series, where he eclipsed 52% true shooting — and here as well, this is not me saying 52% is an easy bar for the era. One of those series was the 1958 Finals, where he averaged 56.4% true shooting — but specifically averaged 69.4% true shooting in the two double-digit losses and 49.5% true shooting in the four close wins. And of course Russell was absent for the second of those losses. In the other two series, both against 33-win teams, his true shooting was 58.9% and 58.3%.
Now, he did recreate that level in one later series: the 1961 Finals. 58.3% true shooting there too. It was also a series where the Hawks were outscored by twelve points a game. Hagan was outstanding in the team’s one win, but if we want to talk about effect on the team, I find it pretty interesting how — excluding his rookie season here — Hagan averaged 23.75 on 52.4% true shooting in wins against the Celtics and 27.3 on 54.7% true shooting in losses against the Celtics (all of which were by at least 8 points). Pettit shows the opposite signal, with 24.7 points per game in losses against the Celtics (now I am counting 1957 because that was his prime) and 33 points per game in wins against the Celtics. Not taking the time to calculate the respective true shooting because I think the point disparity speaks enough for itself, but what I am emphasising here is that Hagan was broadly thriving when games were less competitive while Pettit was the more reliable producer in wins.
I would also like to highlight a comparison I have mostly left alone because I recognise internal project ordering can be fluid and variable. However, at the final vote, I feel a need to stress that we are on the cusp of a result where we inducted Bobby Jones (25728 regular season minutes and 4290 postseason minutes) and Dennis Rodman (28839 regular season minutes and 4789 postseason minutes) into the top 80… but excluded James Worthy (30001 regular season minutes and 5297 postseason minutes) from the top 100. And I highlight these three comparatively because all acted as third star power-switch forwards to all-time 1980s title teams… but Worthy played the most, and was most consistently asked to be the second-best player, and is the only one to seriously compete for a Finals MVP. And he is going to be twenty spots lower than both and possibly off the project entirely without any strong signals that he was providing lesser value than those two.
James Worthy like Hagan, a playoff riser with some big runs but lasted a bit longer and unless I'm reasonably sure Hagan was the better defender, which I'm not, Worthy should probably get it.
Alternate
Connie Hawkins Highest peak and most iconic.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Vote #1: Chris Bosh -A good pile of strong #2 (great #3), questionable #1 guys here (and Hawkins). -For coming into the league so young Bosh really impresses by getting up to speed quickly. -On a personal note, I love how versatile his game is. -Generally underrated as a defender imo, not an all-timer, but a guy I view as fringe All-D for his prime.
Vote #2: James Worthy -I prefer Chet Walker here, but the race appears to be between Hawkins/Worthy. -Hawk has the same trouble as Hagan for me, stunted longevity. I can see a case for giving Hawkins in particular a bit of a pass there, but I haven't done it with anyone else, so am hesitant to start with #100. -Worthy was a solid #2 for a great run with Magic, he's got 3 rings for a reason (the #3 guy for the first one). -Very much played well when the lights were bright. -Injuries really prevented us from seeing what he could do without Magic, but I don't think there's much doubt he could've functioned as a low level #1.
Quoting you two because: Clyde, I sense [perhaps erroneously] that you may be sympathetic to his case. And f4p, because you have not listed an alternate vote; and even your primary vote feels like a "whatever" pity vote, for that matter.
Clyde Frazier wrote:.
f4p wrote:.
MORE on the topic of Chris Bosh (and some others)......
Spoiler:
I'm going to come at it from a different angle, that of sort of arbitrary (though nonetheless relevant [perhaps]) benchmarks or thresholds......and then whittle things down by adding other thresholds. Yes, again I acknowledge this is arbitrary, and even a bit cherry-picky; yet some of the thresholds have been expressly cited as important or relevant to various posters. Additionally, I think it can scarcely be denied that, once a few are layered on top of each other, we're talking about a pretty historically relevant player.......
How many NON-inducted players ever received 11 [or more] All-Star selections? Just one: Chris Bosh No additional whittling necessary; he is the stand-alone among all non-inducted players in this. I realize that's just a media-awarded accolade, which is frequently mis-assigned; however, his 11 nods is not like Kobe's 9 All-Defensive Team honours, nor even like Gary Payton's 9 All-D honours: most of them are legitimately earned.
So let's use the same starter, but make it a little wider/more permissive..... How many NON-inducted players ever received 10 [or more] All-Star selection? Three: Hal Greer, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh.
How many of ^^^those also have an All-NBA honour? All three, so that doesn't narrow the field. How many of them also won a chip [as a starter, no less]? Two: Hal Greer and Chris Bosh. How many of them won TWO titles as a starter? Only Chris Bosh.
Or suppose we leave it at the threshold of ONE title [still have Bosh and Greer], but then for the other NON era-relativists ask: which of those careers occurred in the post-merger era? Again, only Chris Bosh.
fwiw, I could widen the All-Star requirement to 9, but that adds only ONE player to the starting pool [Lenny Wilkens], and he would be eliminated by any one of the follow-up categories (no All-NBA honours, no titles, did not play in post-merger league).
How many NON-inducted players scored at least 17,000 career pts and had at least 26,000 pts+reb+ast? Ok, actually quite a few (32, to be precise), though some of the names constitute some pretty strong company: George McGinnis, Spencer Haywood, Grant Hill, Chris Webber, Kevin Willis, Otis Thorpe, Rudy Gay, Bailey Howell, Lenny Wilkens, Dave Bing, Zach Randolph, Chet Walker, Jason Terry, Reggie Theus, Gail Goodrich, Eddie Johnson, Terry Cummings, Walter Davis, Clifford Robinson, Bernard King, Antawn Jamison, Tom Chambers, Joe Johnson, Mitch Richmond, Walt Bellamy, Hal Greer, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Alex English, Dan Issel, Carmelo Anthony......and Chris Bosh.
Now, I could again utilize the "who has a title [as a starter]" question, and that's going to narrow the field DRAMATICALLY (I think down to just six: Chet Walker, Hal Greer [same team as Walker], Gail Goodrich, Jason Terry, Bailey Howell, and Chris Bosh). And if I stipulated TWO titles, then it's down to just Bosh and Howell (and only one of them was in the post-merger era)......
Or I could use some threshold of All-Stars or All-NBAs again, too.....
But let's instead use another statistical requirement; how about something that hones in on efficiency (since we're starting with a field based upon mass of box production)?
I could go with turnover economy; something like fewer than 2,000 career TO's [Bosh had just 1,807, btw]. That would also narrow the field substantially (Aldridge still makes the cut easily, but most do not). However, we don't have turnover data for the old guys.
So we'll use relative shooting efficiency: how many of those 32 players ALSO had a positive career TS Add (like even +0.1)? Well, now the field's down to 22, because the following are all removed: LaMarcus Aldridge [barely, though again: TO's], George McGinnis, Chris Webber, Kevin Willis, Rudy Gay, Eddie Johnson, Terry Cummings, Clifford Robinson, Antawn Jamison, and Joe Johnson.
To whittle further, how about a more relevant positive TS Add?......How many of those 22 would still remain if we required at least 500 TS Add? Down to a pool of just 14 [slightly more distinguished] players: Grant Hill, Otis Thorpe, Bailey Howell, Lenny Wilkens, Chet Walker, Jason Terry, Hal Greer, Walter Davis, Bernard King [very turnover-prone, however], Mitch Richmond, Walt Bellamy, Alex English, Dan Issel.....and Chris Bosh.
What about at least 1000 TS Add? Now it's just six: Otis Thorpe, Bailey Howell, Chet Walker, Walt Bellamy, Dan Issel, and Chris Bosh.
How many of those six won a title? Bailey Howell, Chet Walker, and Chris Bosh.
How many won TWO? Bailey Howell and Chris Bosh. How many in the post-merger era? Or with 9+ All-Star selections, etc (you get the point)? Only Chris Bosh
His career by the box-aggregates looks like this: 20.6 PER, .159 WS/48, +1.9 BPM, all with a CAREER average of 35.8 mpg (nearly 32k career minutes).
In the playoffs: 18.4 PER, .144 WS/48, +1.8 BPM (in 35.2 mpg) [fwiw, "Big Game James" career playoffs: 18.3 PER, .135 WS/48, +2.9 BPM]
In career [playoff included] vanilla RAPM is +5.0 (tied for 51st among all players '97-'24 (28 most recent years of NBA history: comprises half [just OVER half, I believe] of all player-seasons played in NBL/BAA/NBA/ABA from '47 to present), this while averaging higher mpg than most of those ahead of him, more career minutes than half of the field ahead of him, too.
Adding to this, I did another whittling down using arbitrary benchmarks.....
I started with PER this time. I know everyone hates the metric, and generally think it of limited use and bad philosophy. Nonetheless, it often seems to peg who is really good at basketball, even if it does so only "accidentally" or "incidentally".
I note, for example, that 48 of the top 60 career PER's [80%] have already been inducted; 32 of the 36 [88.9%] have been inducted, including ALL of the top 10 [none of them lower than #42, too; in fact, the other nine of the top-10 PER's were all inducted within the top 26, actually, with two of our top 3 inductees both being top-3 in career PER as well].
Let us at least agree that, for all its flaws and its lack of nuance in parsing meaning from the numbers, it still registers a lot of what good and impact players are often accruing a lot of during basketball games. The other benefit of PER is we have all the way back to '52.
So starting with PER, I noted for example that Chris Bosh has SEVEN seasons with a PER of 20+ (basically always did in his prime, until he took a diminished role next to a couple super-star teammates). I then started to wonder how many other non-inducted players there are who had at least 7(ish) seasons with a 20+ PER [on ANY amount of playing time]; and I'll even widen it slightly just to be a bit more inclusive: to SIX or more.
Turns out there are [or were, as of '23] 35 such players, including Bosh. They are (listed by number of such seasons, and otherwise alphabetically): Dan Issell (12) Andre Drummond (11 [many on limited minutes]) Kyrie Irving (11) Carmelo Anthony (9) Chris Webber (9) LaMarcus Aldridge (8) Elton Brand (8) DeMarcus Cousins (8) Blake Griffin (8) Cliff Hagan (*8 [*if include a season of just 3 games at 9.0 mpg; otherwise he has 7]) Clyde Lovellette (8) Amare Stoudemire (8) Jonas Valanciunas (8) Chris Bosh (7) Clint Capela (7) Sam Cassell (7) DeMar DeRozan (7) Grant Hill (7) Al Jefferson (7) Enes Kanter (7 [note: most on very limited minutes; and he's awful defensively, fwiw]) Shawn Kemp (7) Brook Lopez (7) George McGinnis (7) Yao Ming (7) Mark Price (7) Karl-Anthony Towns (7) Terrell Brandon (6) John Drew (6) Alex English (6) Larry Foust (6) Neil Johnston (6) Kevin Love (6) Stephon Marbury (6) (Greg Monroe (*6 [*if include a season of just 3 games at 8.7 mpg; otherwie he has only 5]) Deron Williams (6)
^^^It's pretty decent company, includes a few guys I think should be on the list, and a number of others who are in sniffing distance for me (bringing special attention to Dan Issel, who stands alone at the top among all non-inducted players).
But not all these guys were terribly efficient, and/or putting up big numbers on anything but crappy teams. So let's whittle using career WS/48: how many of the above had a career WS/48 above .150? That narrows things to a somewhat more selective group of 20 (bolding some names of interest to me):
LaMarcus Aldridge Chris Bosh Elton Brand Clint Capela John Drew Andre Drummond Larry Foust Blake Griffin Cliff Hagan Kyrie Irving Dan Issel Neil Johnston Enes Kanter Kevin Love Clyde Lovellette Yao Ming Mark Price Amare Stoudemire Karl-Anthony Towns Jonas Valanciunas
Maybe we circle back to PER, though focus more on peak-level: how many of the above 20 players ever had a single season of 25+ PER? Now we're down to just 12 non-inducted players:
LaMarcus Aldridge Chris Bosh Elton Brand John Drew Cliff Hagan* (*only if including a 35-game season at 16.5 mpg [in the early ABA, too]) Kyrie Irving Dan Issel Neil Johnston (5x) Kevin Love (2x) Yao Ming (2x) Amare Stoudemire (2x) Karl-Anthony Towns (3x)
How many of these ever won a title as a starter (top 3 player on team, no less)?
Chris Bosh Cliff Hagan Dan Issell Neil Johnston Kevin Love
How many of them ever won TWO titles as a starter? Chris Bosh
Or even starting from the group of 20 above, I could have then asked 'how many of them have 9 or more All-Star selections?' Just one: Chris Bosh (and he's got 11).
Or even starting from the big group of 35 at the top, I could then look at those among them who played most of his career in '97 or later (it's actually MOST of them: 26, to be precise), and ask 'how many of those 26 have a career RAPM of +4 or better?' Only five:
LaMarcus Aldridge Chris Bosh Blake Griffin Yao Ming Karl-Anthony Towns
Which of them has an RAPM of +5 of better? Just two: Karl-Anthony Towns and Chris Bosh. Which of them ever won a title?.....
I simply don't feel there is anyone left to truly match Bosh's [combined] resume of peak-level play, sustained excellence (as measured by both the box AND impact signals), and "legacy check-boxes" (such as top-3 player on [TWO] title teams, the 11 All-Star selections (more than anyone not already inducted), etc. As added considerations [tie-breakers??]: his adaptability (to change his role in different settings), quality as a teammate (heard anything bad about him?), and that it all happened in a very competitive era.
Also just want to point out how well both Aldridge and Issel survive the whittling processes above, too. Also want to note that Issel stands alone in the 'seasons of 20+ PER' category; and although I ultimately went with the 6 seasons as the starting point, I actually looked at all non-inducted players who have even FOUR such seasons. Among ALL of them, Dan Issel has the 6th-highest WS/48, too (.181), while playing far more career minutes than anyone ahead of him.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
trex_8063 wrote:Quoting you two because: Clyde, I sense [perhaps erroneously] that you may be sympathetic to his case. And f4p, because you have not listed an alternate vote; and even your primary vote feels like a "whatever" pity vote, for that matter.
Clyde Frazier wrote:.
f4p wrote:.
Bosh hasn't won a single playoff round outside of when he was the distant #3 for a team that won a 2nd round series without him. I don't really see a good argument against Worthy, another player with great longevity would be considering he has a better record without Magic, more titles, was more important to some of those titles.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
OhayoKD wrote: Bosh hasn't won a single playoff round outside of when he was the distant #3 for a team that won a 2nd round series without him. I don't really see a good argument against Worthy, another player with great longevity would be considering he has a better record without Magic, more titles, was more important to some of those titles.
Well, that's why he's my alternate.
Regarding the bolded parts.....
Looking at their respective casts (and noting which years of Worthy's career that Magic missed the most time aside from '92 [window of '84-'86]), I'm not shocked that prime Worthy managed to win more with Kareem [some prime, some early post-prime], Byron Scott, Michael Cooper, post-prime Bob McAdoo, et al.......than Bosh was able to win with Anthony Parker, Jose Calderon, TJ Ford, and so on.
Outside of the Heatles, there is a very distinct gap in the average quality of supporting cast of Bosh vs Worthy [even in sans-Magic games].
Even looking at the '92 Lakers [Worthy past his prime at this point], the top 5 in playing time (aside from Worthy himself) were: Sedale Threat, A.C. Green, Byron Scott, and Sam Perkins (ALL in their primes) [plus Vlade was 8th on the team in minutes that year]. ^^^That is better than any supporting cast Bosh ever had in Toronto, and arguably better than any he had outside of the Heatles years; but it's one of the two WORST casts Worthy ever had.
I also note that for all of Worthy's reputation as a playoff riser [which I agree he was], I note his playoff aggragates compared to Bosh.....
.....with Bosh probably being the marginally more relevant/impactful defensively (particularly in the years that comprise most of his playoff sample).
Worthy hangs his hat on his playoff heroics, yet overall he's not really distanced himself from Bosh [in the playoffs]. This is primarily because Bosh was that much better in the rs (and his effective longevity edges Worthy, too, fwiw).
When two guys look similar(ish) in the playoffs, I'll give the nod to the guy who [obviously] was better in the rs.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
OhayoKD wrote: Bosh hasn't won a single playoff round outside of when he was the distant #3 for a team that won a 2nd round series without him. I don't really see a good argument against Worthy, another player with great longevity would be considering he has a better record without Magic, more titles, was more important to some of those titles.
Well, that's why he's my alternate.
Regarding the bolded parts.....
Looking at their respective casts (and noting which years of Worthy's career that Magic missed the most time aside from '92 [window of '84-'86]), I'm not shocked that prime Worthy managed to win more with Kareem [some prime, some early post-prime], Byron Scott, Michael Cooper, post-prime Bob McAdoo, et al.......than Bosh was able to win with Anthony Parker, Jose Calderon, TJ Ford, and so on.
Outside of the Heatles, there is a very distinct gap in the average quality of supporting cast of Bosh vs Worthy [even in sans-Magic games].
Even looking at the '92 Lakers [Worthy past his prime at this point], the top 5 in playing time (aside from Worthy himself) were: Sedale Threat, A.C. Green, Byron Scott, and Sam Perkins (ALL in their primes) [plus Vlade was 8th on the team in minutes that year]. ^^^That is better than any supporting cast Bosh ever had in Toronto, and arguably better than any he had outside of the Heatles years; but it's the single-WORST cast Worthy ever had.
I also note that for all of Worthy's reputation as a playoff riser [which I agree he was], I note his playoff aggragates compared to Bosh.....
.....with Bosh probably being the marginally more relevant/impactful defensively (particularly in the years that comprise most of his playoff sample).
Worthy hangs his hat on his playoff heroics, yet overall he's not really distanced himself from Bosh [in the playoffs]. This is primarily because Bosh was that much better in the rs (and his effective longevity edges Worthy, too, fwiw).
When two guys look similar(ish) in the playoffs, I'll give the nod to the guy who [obviously] was better in the rs.
I'm inclined to think the sample for those box-composites favors Worthy.
Worthy missed the playoffs in two of his last three years and played one series in the other. He missed the playoffs through injury in his rookie year too. Worthy then sees most of his weakest years not represented. Bosh isn't in for his two youngest years but is also in a position where his strongest boxscore years ('08, '10) see limited representation in playoffs for reasons that I don't think are particularly "on him" and would almost certainly have been different in Worthy's place.
I know you are just posting lackadaisically, but gives me a decent opportunity to reiterate this:
AEnigma wrote:Hagan has two postseasons, across three series, where he eclipsed 52% true shooting — and here as well, this is not me saying 52% is an easy bar for the era. One of those series was the 1958 Finals, where he averaged 56.4% true shooting — but specifically averaged 69.4% true shooting in the two double-digit losses and 49.5% true shooting in the four close wins. And of course Russell was absent for the second of those losses. In the other two series, both against 33-win teams, his true shooting was 58.9% and 58.3%.
Now, he did recreate that level in one later series: the 1961 Finals. 58.3% true shooting there too. It was also a series where the Hawks were outscored by twelve points a game. Hagan was outstanding in the team’s one win, but if we want to talk about effect on the team, I find it pretty interesting how — excluding his rookie season here — Hagan averaged 23.75 on 52.4% true shooting in wins against the Celtics and 27.3 on 54.7% true shooting in losses against the Celtics (all of which were by at least 8 points). Pettit shows the opposite signal, with 24.7 points per game in losses against the Celtics (now I am counting 1957 because that was his prime) and 33 points per game in wins against the Celtics. Not taking the time to calculate the respective true shooting because I think the point disparity speaks enough for itself, but what I am emphasising here is that Hagan was broadly thriving when games were less competitive while Pettit was the more reliable producer in wins.
I would also like to highlight a comparison I have mostly left alone because I recognise internal project ordering can be fluid and variable. However, at the final vote, I feel a need to stress that we are on the cusp of a result where we inducted Bobby Jones (25728 regular season minutes and 4290 postseason minutes) and Dennis Rodman (28839 regular season minutes and 4789 postseason minutes) into the top 80… but excluded James Worthy (30001 regular season minutes and 5297 postseason minutes) from the top 100. And I highlight these three comparatively because all acted as third star power-switch forwards to all-time 1980s title teams… but Worthy played the most, and was most consistently asked to be the second-best player, and is the only one to seriously compete for a Finals MVP. And he is going to be twenty spots lower than both and possibly off the project entirely without any strong signals that he was providing lesser value than those two.
Despite more minutes ... Worthy has fewer Win Shares and less VORP than Jones. Turn those into above average and those gaps get bigger. Jones peaks higher for those who don't think these things are linear. By the rate version of those metrics Worthy has 1 and 0 seasons above Jones' career average (PER fwiw has them much closer and I'd imagine EWA (cumulative PER) would give Worthy a lead).
Jones has in season impact measures that, over a large sample place seem to suggest him as highly impactful on a really good team with a decent degree of confidence. I don't know what the limited data would say for Worthy.
To the extent this matters - and this isn't a quantifiable thing or something where we get all the information - Jones is often regarded as a particularly noteworthy teammate/intangibles guy (some on here have really sold this at points). Defense, a high-revving motor (helped here by limited minutes, it should be said), efficiency and passing scale well to good teams and to varying degrees these are positives for Jones in general (passing isn't huge but he isn't on ball a lot ... of course turnovers are a little high in light of that). Worthy isn't bad in these regards, he accepted "3rd fiddle" status in LA, notes suggest he is good, quiet leader, just not top tier or noteworthy. Defense was flexible and in prime at least solid some would say good, just again less noteworthy. He's also very efficient and a positive passer. Both run the floor well.
"Was most consistently asked to be the second-best player" ... not sure what that means. Coaches can direct offensive primacy ... or is "asked" more just implying that he was the second-best? I'm not sure in-team rank matters that much in any case.
Playoff minutes is too much a function of circumstance for me to care much about it. Worthy plays more in a 4 round playoffs. Worthy plays one of the weaker playoff dockets on a team that went all the way two of the three years before his arrival (then reached the finals without him available at all in the playoffs in his rookie year)... that isn't to imply he didn't contribute or teammates didn't change but he is in a position where those playoff minutes should come at least until 1992. Idk, just not really a measure of the player. At the margins it means more wear and perhaps more narrative significance though minutes probably isn't an ideal proxy for that - to the extent that matters to people.
Worthy holds up a little better in relative terms in the playoffs ... but Jones is still mostly more rate productive (PER falls behind Worthy's) despite having more late career minutes whilst Worthy's "career" playoff averages are helped by a minimal sample from his final 3 years.
Personally I don't see a case for Worthy or a reason to particularly "anchor" the two, but I'd argue it's the field that matters, though per prior posts - I think from the project I don't see a compelling case for him versus Bosh.
Rodman ... has a large range to where he can rank. There's a lot of non-boxscore stuff negative and positive that will go differently for different people. How good his defense was and how well he sustained it ... how costly his "rebellions" and incidents were ... ditto. The value of his extreme rebounding output and the cost of the extremes of his reluctance to shoot ... he's divisive player and as discussed in the English '20 thread the voting system probably favored that. He's probably always an interesting point of comparison but tricky as an anchor because people can view him so differently.
trex_8063 wrote:Quoting you two because: Clyde, I sense [perhaps erroneously] that you may be sympathetic to his case. And f4p, because you have not listed an alternate vote; and even your primary vote feels like a "whatever" pity vote, for that matter.
Bosh hasn't won a single playoff round outside of when he was the distant #3 for a team that won a 2nd round series without him. I don't really see a good argument against Worthy, another player with great longevity would be considering he has a better record without Magic, more titles, was more important to some of those titles.
It depends what one means here and I'm not sure how complete Statmuse is but at a glance I got
I don't know how much one wants to ding Worthy for those late career years, but then we're left with a very limited sample in the scope of comparing careers and the tool is already very indirect as a measure of player goodness/contribution.
OhayoKD wrote: Bosh hasn't won a single playoff round outside of when he was the distant #3 for a team that won a 2nd round series without him. I don't really see a good argument against Worthy, another player with great longevity would be considering he has a better record without Magic, more titles, was more important to some of those titles.
Well, that's why he's my alternate.
Regarding the bolded parts.....
Looking at their respective casts (and noting which years of Worthy's career that Magic missed the most time aside from '92 [window of '84-'86]), I'm not shocked that prime Worthy managed to win more with Kareem [some prime, some early post-prime], Byron Scott, Michael Cooper, post-prime Bob McAdoo, et al.......than Bosh was able to win with Anthony Parker, Jose Calderon, TJ Ford, and so on.
Outside of the Heatles, there is a very distinct gap in the average quality of supporting cast of Bosh vs Worthy [even in sans-Magic games].
Even looking at the '92 Lakers [Worthy past his prime at this point], the top 5 in playing time (aside from Worthy himself) were: Sedale Threat, A.C. Green, Byron Scott, and Sam Perkins (ALL in their primes) [plus Vlade was 8th on the team in minutes that year]. ^^^That is better than any supporting cast Bosh ever had in Toronto, and arguably better than any he had outside of the Heatles years; but it's the single-WORST cast Worthy ever had.
I also note that for all of Worthy's reputation as a playoff riser [which I agree he was], I note his playoff aggragates compared to Bosh.....
.....with Bosh probably being the marginally more relevant/impactful defensively (particularly in the years that comprise most of his playoff sample).
Worthy hangs his hat on his playoff heroics, yet overall he's not really distanced himself from Bosh [in the playoffs]. This is primarily because Bosh was that much better in the rs (and his effective longevity edges Worthy, too, fwiw).
When two guys look similar(ish) in the playoffs, I'll give the nod to the guy who [obviously] was better in the rs.
I'm inclined to think the sample for those box-composites favors Worthy.
Worthy missed the playoffs in two of his last three years and played one series in the other. He missed the playoffs through injury in his rookie year too. Worthy then sees most of his weakest years not represented. Bosh isn't in for his two youngest years but is also in a position where his strongest boxscore years ('08, '10) see limited representation in playoffs for reasons that I don't think are particularly "on him" and would almost certainly have been different in Worthy's place.
Yeah, I would point out that if you cut off Worthy's playoffs after 1990, his WS/48 goes up to .155 and his TS goes up to 59.9%.
Vote for #100: Chris Bosh Alternate Vote: James Worthy
Figured I’d vote in the last one of these. This is definitely a tough call between the Bosh and Worthy. To me, these two players are very similar in terms of their achievements. They were a supporting star on multiple title teams, were the best player on first-round-playoff-exit teams, and had similar longevity in the league. Worthy had higher highs in the playoffs, but I think Bosh was more consistently good in the regular season. I was pretty persuaded by trex’s post on the first page of this thread. And I also just feel more confident in what we saw from Bosh as his team’s best player than what we saw from Worthy (though obviously Worthy had less time in that position and was near the end).
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
I haven't participated in this in a while but Worthy is the most historically relevant guy left imo. He was great with and without Magic (see above to see how productive he was), and while playing in LA certainly made him a bigger name I don't think it necessarily always showed how good he was because the lions share of the credit was going to two of the greatest players ever. Despite that he still had memorable moments in the playoffs, longevity and durability on his side.
Alternate: Connie Hawkins
Highest peak of the guys remaining, and at #100, that's enough for me.
Seems like a excellent all around wing who had some seconf option scoring chops, very valuable archetype even if not someone to lead a team to a ring, good enough longevity/durability for this class of players
OhayoKD wrote: Bosh hasn't won a single playoff round outside of when he was the distant #3 for a team that won a 2nd round series without him. I don't really see a good argument against Worthy, another player with great longevity would be considering he has a better record without Magic, more titles, was more important to some of those titles.
Well, that's why he's my alternate.
Regarding the bolded parts.....
Looking at their respective casts (and noting which years of Worthy's career that Magic missed the most time aside from '92 [window of '84-'86]), I'm not shocked that prime Worthy managed to win more with Kareem [some prime, some early post-prime], Byron Scott, Michael Cooper, post-prime Bob McAdoo, et al.......than Bosh was able to win with Anthony Parker, Jose Calderon, TJ Ford, and so on.
Outside of the Heatles, there is a very distinct gap in the average quality of supporting cast of Bosh vs Worthy [even in sans-Magic games].
Even looking at the '92 Lakers [Worthy past his prime at this point], the top 5 in playing time (aside from Worthy himself) were: Sedale Threat, A.C. Green, Byron Scott, and Sam Perkins (ALL in their primes) [plus Vlade was 8th on the team in minutes that year]. ^^^That is better than any supporting cast Bosh ever had in Toronto, and arguably better than any he had outside of the Heatles years; but it's the single-WORST cast Worthy ever had.
I also note that for all of Worthy's reputation as a playoff riser [which I agree he was], I note his playoff aggragates compared to Bosh.....
.....with Bosh probably being the marginally more relevant/impactful defensively (particularly in the years that comprise most of his playoff sample).
Worthy hangs his hat on his playoff heroics, yet overall he's not really distanced himself from Bosh [in the playoffs]. This is primarily because Bosh was that much better in the rs (and his effective longevity edges Worthy, too, fwiw).
When two guys look similar(ish) in the playoffs, I'll give the nod to the guy who [obviously] was better in the rs.
I'm inclined to think the sample for those box-composites favors Worthy.
Worthy missed the playoffs in two of his last three years and played one series in the other. He missed the playoffs through injury in his rookie year too. Worthy then sees most of his weakest years not represented. Bosh isn't in for his two youngest years but is also in a position where his strongest boxscore years ('08, '10) see limited representation in playoffs for reasons that I don't think are particularly "on him" and would almost certainly have been different in Worthy's place.
The much, much, much bigger issue here is the uneven sample. Worthy looks "comparable" to Bosh over 5927 minutes, nearly doubling the 3128 minutes from Bosh. 6 postseason runs are being compared to 9.
To the degree you put stock in these numbers, Worthy looking similar over far more minutes here is a big point in his favor here and if this is a criticial part of why people are voting for Bosh, then they should consider switching their votes for Worthy. You do not pull up 3000 vs 6000 minute samples for truly comparable players.
Barring a singular 5 game PER run in 2008, Worthy's best runs clear(and for 2 od 3 there are multiple) Bosh's in each and every one of the mentioned all-in-ones. Pretty disappointed no one caught onto this (likely unintentional) neglect of Simpson's Paradox.
As far as PER, BPM, and WS/48 are concerned Worthy is a significantly better playoff performer
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
Vote: Chris Bosh By and large has better numbers than the other candidates while doing it in the toughest era and also being far and away the best defender of the group. Also an excellent teammate as he adapted extremely well to a much less glamorous role than he was accustomed to in order to win multiple rings with the Heat.
Owly wrote:I'm inclined to think the sample for those box-composites favors Worthy.
Worthy missed the playoffs in two of his last three years and played one series in the other. He missed the playoffs through injury in his rookie year too. Worthy then sees most of his weakest years not represented. Bosh isn't in for his two youngest years but is also in a position where his strongest boxscore years ('08, '10) see limited representation in playoffs for reasons that I don't think are particularly "on him" and would almost certainly have been different in Worthy's place.
The much, much, much bigger issue here is the uneven sample. Worthy looks "comparable" to Bosh over 5927 minutes, nearly doubling the 3128 minutes from Bosh. 6 postseason runs are being compared to 9.
To the degree you put stock in these numbers, Worthy looking similar over far more minutes here is a big point in his favor here and if this is a criticial part of why people are voting for Bosh, then they should consider switching their votes for Worthy. You do not pull up 3000 vs 6000 minute samples for truly comparable players.
Barring a singular 5 game PER run in 2008, Worthy's best runs clear(and for 2 od 3 there are multiple) Bosh's in each and every one of the mentioned all-in-ones. Pretty disappointed no one caught onto this (likely unintentional) neglect of Simpson's Paradox.
Well [again], let's look at the supporting casts Worthy enjoyed throughout his career..... We have to look at the two WORST casts of his entire 12-year career ('92 and '94) to find one that is maybe comparable to the BEST cast Bosh saw outside of '11-'14 (and they're still better than ANY cast Bosh saw in 7 seasons in Toronto).
If Worthy had the same spread of help across his 12-year career, he too would not have 6,000 playoff minutes. He might not even have 3,000.
OhayoKD wrote:As far as PER, BPM, and WS/48 are concerned Worthy is a significantly better playoff performer
Hmm, didn't I literally just show that this is not the case (Bosh having the slightly higher PER and WS/48 in the playoffs)? Or perhaps you mean by mentally throwing all three into the blender, Worthy comes out on top? I could perhaps agree there, though "significantly" is clearly misused to describe their respective careers in the playoffs.
Even if we exclude '93 for Worthy [because not in his prime], the playoff comparison looks like this.....
Bosh: 18.4 PER, .144 WS/48, +1.8 BPM in 35.2 mpg Worthy: 18.6 PER, .140 WS/48, +3.1 BPM in 37.3 mpg
He still doesn't have an edge in all of them, and his edge in PER [and mpg, fwiw] are only marginal/negligible. So even here, "significantly" feels at least a little out of place.
Now if we want to see a truly "signicant" margin, look no further than a comparison of their rs resumes:
And I'm going to throw out one more tidbit regarding impact signals (as you mentioned games without Magic); I've already commented on Bosh's reasonably impressive RAPM profile, but want to look at some data that exists for both players..... WOWYR Bosh: +4.4 for prime, +4.1 for career Worthy: +3.6 for prime, +2.6 for career
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
Owly wrote:I'm inclined to think the sample for those box-composites favors Worthy.
Worthy missed the playoffs in two of his last three years and played one series in the other. He missed the playoffs through injury in his rookie year too. Worthy then sees most of his weakest years not represented. Bosh isn't in for his two youngest years but is also in a position where his strongest boxscore years ('08, '10) see limited representation in playoffs for reasons that I don't think are particularly "on him" and would almost certainly have been different in Worthy's place.
The much, much, much bigger issue here is the uneven sample. Worthy looks "comparable" to Bosh over 5927 minutes, nearly doubling the 3128 minutes from Bosh. 6 postseason runs are being compared to 9.
To the degree you put stock in these numbers, Worthy looking similar over far more minutes here is a big point in his favor here and if this is a criticial part of why people are voting for Bosh, then they should consider switching their votes for Worthy. You do not pull up 3000 vs 6000 minute samples for truly comparable players.
Barring a singular 5 game PER run in 2008, Worthy's best runs clear(and for 2 od 3 there are multiple) Bosh's in each and every one of the mentioned all-in-ones. Pretty disappointed no one caught onto this (likely unintentional) neglect of Simpson's Paradox.
Well [again], let's look at the supporting casts Worthy enjoyed throughout his career..... We have to look at the two WORST casts of his entire 12-year career ('92 and '94) to find one that is maybe comparable to the BEST cast Bosh saw outside of '11-'14 (and they're still better than ANY cast Bosh saw in 7 seasons in Toronto).
If Worthy had the same spread of help across his 12-year career, he too would not have 6,000 playoff minutes. He might not even have 3,000.
Okay, but that's besides the point: averages go down the more you play. All else being equal, bosh playing half the minutes inflates his averages relative to Worthy
OhayoKD wrote:As far as PER, BPM, and WS/48 are concerned Worthy is a significantly better playoff performer
Hmm, didn't I literally just show that this is not the case (Bosh having the slightly higher PER and WS/48 in the playoffs)? Or perhaps you mean by mentally throwing all three into the blender, Worthy comes out on top? I could perhaps agree there, though "significantly" is clearly misused to describe their respective careers in the playoffs.
What you showed is that 6000 minutes of Worthy, by these metrics, similar to 3000 minutes of Bosh(by these metrics). A fair comparison would be looking at 3000 minutes of worthy, not 6000. Or, at the very least, looking at 6 runs for each instead of suppressing worthy's average with a 3 extra postseasons. If we look at their best runs instead of uneven career samples, worthy has the clear advantage by these metrics.
Even if we exclude '93 for Worthy [because not in his prime], the playoff comparison looks like this.....
Bosh: 18.4 PER, .144 WS/48, +1.8 BPM in 35.2 mpg Worthy: 18.6 PER, .140 WS/48, +3.1 BPM in 37.3 mpg
He still doesn't have an edge in all of them, and his edge in PER [and mpg, fwiw] are only marginal/negligible. So even here, "significantly" feels at least a little out of place.
Why are you only taking out 93? For an even comparison, 93, 91, and 90 wouldn't be included here raising worthy's average above Bosh in all the all-in-ones. Moreover, even with that 6 vs 6 comparison, Worthy would be maintaining that higher average over significantly more minutes(on top of also averaging 2 more minutes a game). You can argue these stats are misleading or whatever, but compare like for like, and Worthy is clearly advantaged in these metrics (at least in the playoffs).
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
