Predict Wemby's career rank on the all-time list

[MrIrrelevant]

You guys will probably end up being correct, but the only answer right now is 51-100. I would have put Lebron here too though after his rookie year, just too many variables especially with injuries being unpredictable.

[sp6r=underrated]

I have him ending as top 5 all time at worst. At worst. I may get some pushback now, but in 20 years when this thread is bumped, I shall be redeemed.

So you are saying that you would be shocked if he had a worse career than Tim Duncan?

There are a number of things that can go wrong for him, but I'd like to project a player's career without the cloud of injuries. I am trying to make a projection solely on what he has shown on the basketball court.

He has yet to suffer any serious injuries which is important as a body grows, and clearly is very conscientious about stretching, mobility, and injury avoidance. It will happen to him, of course, as it does every player, but unless it is debilitating, career ending stuff (which I would prefer not to predict), I believe he can still end up top 5.

In terms of on-court value though, yes I will be shocked if he does not outperform Tim Duncan's individual value on the basketball court. Shocked. I say with 98% certainty that he will be a better individual player than Duncan.

He has already showcased a better defensive impact than all but maybe 2003 Duncan, as a rookie. He nearly averaged 5 stocks per game and is already by far the most feared rim presence in the NBA. He got legit DPOY votes on a 20 win team, unheard of. We will be soon renaming the DPOY the Victor Wembanyama Award the way things are going.

Moreover, Tim's offense was never that efficient, nor was he a playmaking hub, and this is because Tim Duncan was a human being. A very tall one, but he was not out of the ordinary tall nor athletic. He often resorted to the inefficient 10 foot hook or bank shot turnaround. There's a reason he and Kobe have the exact same TS%.

VW on the other hand? He is not human. He does things that are essentially impossible to stop. First of all, he's a true 3 level scorer, bombs 3s, shooting over 40% on pull-up (!!!) threes alone, and is a walking matchup nightmare. He physically requires a double team in a way Duncan never could, and is learning how to pass out of it and use his gravity to get open looks for his teammates. His offensive rebounding and lob threat is already approaching GOAT-tier. He will score more and far more efficiently than Duncan. A great FT shooter to boot.

He will be a better offensive and defensive player than Tim Duncan. I am willing to make this statement, as close to a guarantee as I possibly can. Will he win more championships? That's very hard to say, but much of that is out of his control. His teammates are utterly tragic at the moment. However, he is wired exactly the right way and really cares about winning.

I don't think Duncan is necessarily the # 5 guy all time. Many players have a good argument there (Hakeem, KG, Curry, Shaq, Bird/Magic, etc.). Do you have the same confidence Wemby will pass all the other guys I named?

I'm just trying to gauge how confident you are in Wemby. Because if you "will be shocked if he does not outperform all of the guys" I named you're really saying the most likely worst case scenario is he is another Kareem/Russell because the gap between those guys and number 5 is not that massive.

Now again I don't think you're crazy to be high on Wemby. All of the scouts came in saying this guy could tear the league up and his first year was spectacular. And there was a great bump recently of a Jokic rookie thread where Lokak correctly Jokic as a GOAT level passer. So I'm not calling you a fool just trying to gauge your confidence.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1520692

[EmpireFalls]

There are a number of things that can go wrong for him, but I'd like to project a player's career without the cloud of injuries. I am trying to make a projection solely on what he has shown on the basketball court.

He has yet to suffer any serious injuries which is important as a body grows, and clearly is very conscientious about stretching, mobility, and injury avoidance. It will happen to him, of course, as it does every player, but unless it is debilitating, career ending stuff (which I would prefer not to predict), I believe he can still end up top 5.

In terms of on-court value though, yes I will be shocked if he does not outperform Tim Duncan's individual value on the basketball court. Shocked. I say with 98% certainty that he will be a better individual player than Duncan.

He has already showcased a better defensive impact than all but maybe 2003 Duncan, as a rookie. He nearly averaged 5 stocks per game and is already by far the most feared rim presence in the NBA. He got legit DPOY votes on a 20 win team, unheard of. We will be soon renaming the DPOY the Victor Wembanyama Award the way things are going.

Moreover, Tim's offense was never that efficient, nor was he a playmaking hub, and this is because Tim Duncan was a human being. A very tall one, but he was not out of the ordinary tall nor athletic. He often resorted to the inefficient 10 foot hook or bank shot turnaround. There's a reason he and Kobe have the exact same TS%.

VW on the other hand? He is not human. He does things that are essentially impossible to stop. First of all, he's a true 3 level scorer, bombs 3s, shooting over 40% on pull-up (!!!) threes alone, and is a walking matchup nightmare. He physically requires a double team in a way Duncan never could, and is learning how to pass out of it and use his gravity to get open looks for his teammates. His offensive rebounding and lob threat is already approaching GOAT-tier. He will score more and far more efficiently than Duncan. A great FT shooter to boot.

He will be a better offensive and defensive player than Tim Duncan. I am willing to make this statement, as close to a guarantee as I possibly can. Will he win more championships? That's very hard to say, but much of that is out of his control. His teammates are utterly tragic at the moment. However, he is wired exactly the right way and really cares about winning.

I don't think Duncan is necessarily the # 5 guy all time. Many players have a good argument there (Hakeem, KG, Curry, Shaq, Bird/Magic, etc.). Do you have the same confidence Wemby will pass all the other guys I named?

I'm just trying to gauge how confident you are in Wemby. Because if you "will be shocked if he does not outperform all of the guys" I named you're really saying the most likely worst case scenario is he is another Kareem/Russell because the gap between those guys and number 5 is not that massive.

Now again I don't think you're crazy to be high on Wemby. All of the scouts came in saying this guy could tear the league up and his first year was spectacular. And there was a great bump recently of a Jokic rookie thread where Lokak correctly Jokic as a GOAT level passer. So I'm not calling you a fool just trying to gauge your confidence.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1520692

Yes, I am that high on him. He will be the most destructive defensive force in NBA history. Some, not me, but some have made compelling arguments that he may already be that even as a rookie, if you factor in how terrified players are of coming into the paint against him at only age 20. I think he is a freakishly fast learner on top of everything else, and while he was actually quite raw and had numerous bad games pre-ASB, post-ASB Wembanyama was simply the best defensive player since peak Mutombo.

And with that base to build on, he just needs to keep his offensive game improving and stay healthy. I am that high on his defensive game-breaking ability, and his offense has the flashes to be up there with the GOATs. He can be unguardable in a way that no other GOAT was, but he'll need a real playmaker to do it with.

[Bornstellar]

He easily has GOAT potential. But the problem is there is always a fair amount of luck and circumstance when it comes to reaching the pantheon of greats that will be outside of his control. I believe he could be better than Tim Duncan, but having watched his entire career it's hard to predict someone could be as good as Tim was, let alone as good as MJ/Kareem/LeBron.

I think it is "fair" to predict him in the 10-15 range when it's all said and done. But, I also would not be shocked if he ends up being in the GOAT discussion next to MJ and LeBron

[rk2023]

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[andyhop]

This is mostly about predicting health because talent wise he has everything he needs to be a top 10 to 15 guy all-time.

And hasn't everyone his size been plagued by injury?

[giordunk]

Barring injury there's no reason why he can't be the GOAT.

He has potential to rewrite all big man records.

The bar for being the GOAT needs to beat 6 championships or 4 championships and 20 elite seasons.

San Antonio is a capable organization. Although Tim Duncan is extremely good he was never that elite bonafide GOAT face of the league type talent that Wemby can be.

[Rishkar]

Injuries are the main concern here, but I'm saying he knocks Jordan out of third

[JimmyFromNz]

Well if healthy I'm comfortable having him in a ranking bracket (top 15-20), but after that there are so many variables which dictate the small inches required to move up the list.

It's very difficult real estate to buy into, but if we see consistent and expected team success that will open the door for a much higher rank around some of the modern greats (Curry, Jokic, KG, Kobe etc).