Clutch Stats Playoff Edition (Kobe, LeBron, Ginobili, Wade)

[semi-sentient]

Some of the recent threads asking questions about who's the best closer/clutch player got me thinking if there was anything more meaningful than the 82games.com clutch stats which seems to only account for the regular season. I thought it would be interesting to see what some of the more well known closers in the league have averaged (yearly, and over their careers). They have also had a certain amount of success in terms of at least reaching the Finals, so there is a good enough sample size for these players and each have played their fare share of meaningful games. I think this is important because as you progress in the playoffs the intensity picks up and in general, so does the competition and pressure.

Anyway...

I used 82games.com definition of clutch play, which is defined as: 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points. I'm not certain if I interpreted this the right way, so I should point out that some of the games ended up having a double-digit margin of victory. However, every last game that I took statistics for was within 5 points at some point in the final 5 minutes.

Statistics are accumilated starting at the 5 minute mark in the 4th quarter when the game is within 5 points. Note that games are not always within 5 points at the 5 minute mark, so there are times where I started compiling stats at the 3 minute mark, for example. That is why I kept track of the minutes when doing these statistics.

I was as careful as possible compiling these numbers, but mistakes do happen. If you find something that is not accurate then let me know and I will make the correction after verifying. I used primarily the ESPN play-by-play and in situations where those were unavailable I used the ones from NBA.com. So that there will be no questions as to the integrity of these statistics you can view the raw data here:

Kobe Bryant - http://www.dolem.com/sites/lakers/kobe_clutch_stats.txt
LeBron James - http://www.dolem.com/sites/lakers/lebro ... _stats.txt
Manu Ginobili - http://www.dolem.com/sites/lakers/ginob ... _stats.txt
Dwyane Wade - http://www.dolem.com/sites/lakers/wade_clutch_stats.txt

It's worth noting that Kobe's stats are not even close to complete. I can't find a good chunk of game logs for the Lakers prior to 2002 (which would encompass most of the 3-peat era) so if anyone knows where I can find these please let me know so that I can finish this off. If there aren't any and someone is willing to compile this data from watching those games (that would be tedious, no doubt) then that would be excellent. Also, I don't have the play-by-play for 1 Lakers games in 2002 where the game was close: Game 2 of the WCS (SAS). Again, if you know where I can find this game let me know.

That said, here's what these guys have done in the playoffs...



Kobe Bryant

Highlights:
- 2008, hit game-winner with 23 seconds left against SAS in Game 1 of the WCF
- 2006, hit game-winner at the buzzer against PHO in Game 4 of Round 1
- 2002, hit game-winner with 5 seconds left against SAS in Game 4 of the WCS
- 2000, hit game-winner with 5.9 seconds left against IND in Game 4 of the NBA Finals
- 2000, hit game-winner with 2.6 seconds left against PHO in Game 2 of the WCS
- 1999, hit game-winning FT's with 5.3 seconds left against HOU in Game 1 of Round 1

Code: Select all

Year   Age   G    MIN   PTS   TS%   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   OPP WIN%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010   31    13   3.9   5.4   .556  0.6   0.5   0.1   0.1   0.2   .631
2009   30    10   4.7   5.2   .604  0.6   0.9   0.0   0.0   0.3   .652
2008   29    14   4.1   4.6   .618  0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.2   .689
2007   28    3    4.3   4.3   .468  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   .744
2006   27    5    4.1   5.8   .651  0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   .659
2004   25    10   4.6   3.1   .382  0.4   0.2   0.3   0.0   0.2   .652
2003   24    5    4.7   5.4   .586  1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.4   .677
2002   23    13   4.1   4.3   .641  0.5   0.7   0.1   0.1   0.1   .671
2001   22    4    4.7   2.8   .619  0.8   0.8   0.3   0.3   0.3   .668
2000   21    5    4.8   4.6   .701  0.6   1.0   0.2   0.4   0.4   .646
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Averages     82   4.3   4.6   .574  0.6   0.5   0.1   0.1   0.2   .662

LeBron James

Highlights:
- 2009, hit game-winner at the buzzer against ORL in Game 2 of the ECF
- 2007, hit game-winner with 2 seconds left against DET in Game 6 of the ECF
- 2006, hit game-winner with 1 second left against WAS in Game 5 of Round 1

Code: Select all

Year   Age   G    MIN   PTS   TS%   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   OPP WIN%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010   25    5    4.9   7.0   .713  1.6   0.6   0.2   0.4   0.8   .555
2009   24    6    5.0   6.8   .640  0.7   1.3   0.1   0.0   0.8   .589
2008   23    8    4.4   3.3   .417  1.3   1.1   0.2   0.1   0.4   .664
2007   22    13   4.6   4.1   .565  0.8   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.2   .588
2006   21    8    5.0   6.1   .611  0.4   0.9   0.3   0.0   0.9   .646
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Averages     40   4.6   4.9   .580  0.9   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.6   .604

Manu Ginobili

Code: Select all

Year   Age   G    MIN   PTS   TS%   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   OPP WIN%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010   32    6    4.6   4.2   .624  0.3   1.7   0.0   0.0   0.3   .661
2008   30    7    4.4   3.3   .633  0.7   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.1   .682
2007   29    11   3.3   3.8   .717  0.9   0.3   0.3   0.0   0.5   .631
2006   28    8    5.0   3.6   .538  0.6   0.6   0.4   0.1   0.4   .634
2005   27    12   4.7   4.0   .667  0.7   0.8   0.1   0.1   0.3   .661
2004   26    5    4.9   2.8   .585  1.8   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.2   .646
2003   25    15   4.7   1.4   .619  1.0   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1   .618
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Averages     64   4.5   3.2   .630  0.8   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.3   .647

Dwyane Wade

Highlights:
- 2004, hit game-winner with 1 second left against NOR in Game 1 of Round 1

Code: Select all

Year   Age   G    MIN   PTS   TS%   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   OPP WIN%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010   28    2    4.0   1.5   .521  0.5   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.5   .610
2009   27    1    4.9   3.0   .999  1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   .573
2007   25    3    5.0   5.0   .447  1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.7   .598
2006   24    12   4.4   4.9   .596  1.0   0.6   0.3   0.0   0.3   .652
2005   23    7    4.5   3.0   .363  0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.4   .573
2004   22    9    3.9   2.7   .707  0.7   0.1   0.3   0.0   0.2   .621
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Averages     34   4.3   3.7   .539  0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.4   .613

Player Comparison

Code: Select all

 Player        G    MIN   PTS   TS%   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   OPP WIN%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Kobe Bryant   82   4.3   4.6   .574  0.6   0.5   0.1   0.1   0.2   .662
 Manu Ginobili 64   4.5   3.2   .630  0.8   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.3   .647
 LeBron James  40   4.6   4.9   .580  0.9   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.6   .604
 Dwyane Wade   34   4.3   3.7   .539  0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.4   .613

Edit: Was able to find more missing games (6 total) for Kobe for both 2000 and 2001, so added those statistics in.

Edit: Fixed calculation error in Kobe's numbers. Also split up the raw data into individual files by player for sake of readability.

Edit: Added Ginobili to the mix. The poll was also reset since I added him as an option. The results before adding him were:

1) Kobe Byrant - 22 votes (55%)
2) LeBron James - 12 votes (30%)
3) Dwyane Wade - 6 votes (15%)

Edit (04/21/2011): Found some more footage from Kobe's early years (2000, 2001), and added a missing game-winner from the 2000 playoffs.

[JordansBulls]

Pretty good analysis here.

[bballcool34]

This is some great work- nice of you to take the time and do it.

I think it shows that Lebron is defintely more clutch than he is given credit for by the casual fan- my friends always say that Lebron's a great player, but isn't clutch like Kobe or even Wade. Lebron's stats for this year are absolutely unreal.

At the same time, on RealGm (I'd argue that the mass media and casual fans overrate his clutchness on the other hand), certain posters often rank Kobe wayy below where he belongs on the clutch list.

He's a great closer- maybe the best in the league- and these stats bear that out. Aside from Lebron- and in some situations in the clutch I'd still take Kobe over him- I don't think anyone else has a legit argument for being the best player in end of game situations.

A clear separation betwen Lebron/Kobe in the playoffs and Wade - which I found surprising.

[CHIMOCHI]

5 star thread, will read again

[Speedlot]

I'm too dumb or impatient to understand these stats. What about free throws?

[semi-sentient]

I'm too dumb or impatient to understand these stats. What about free throws?

TS% takes field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws into account.

[Wile E. Coyote]

This really shouldn't be shocking to anyone who actually pays attention while they are watching the games.

[HouMac]

LeBron James

Highlights:
- 2009, hit game-winner at the buzzer against ORL in Game 2 of the ECF
- 2007, hit game-winner with 2 seconds left against DET in Game 6 of the ECF
- 2006, hit game-winner with 1 second left against WAS in Game 5 of Round 1

This GW should be included in the highlights - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd0lqbXVRyQ&fmt=18

[semi-sentient]

Minge - Hopefully you'll come across this thread, and if so, do you by chance have the following games (I only need the last (full) 5 minutes):

- 2001 WCF, Games 1 and 2, Lakers vs. Spurs
- 2000 NBA Finals, Game 5, Lakers vs. Pacers
- 2000 WCS, Games 2 and 3, Lakers vs. Suns
- 1999 1st Round, Games 1 and 2, Lakers vs. Rockets
- 1999 WCS, Games 1-4, Lakers vs. Spurs

[eatyourchildren]

bump for nyknick87 and lebronscavs

[NeilsCeltics]

[quote="semi-sentient"]Kobe's the greatest closer.
LeBron's the second greatest closer.
Wade is the third greatest closer.[quote]

That sums it up quite nicely.

Just to play Devil's Advocate..

How can Kobe Bryant be the greatest closer of this era when Kobe Bryant turned into Kobrick Cryant at the 2004 NBA Finals, and didn't pass Shaq the ball 10-25 times a game, and won the 2004 NBA Finals? He's quite a moron, if you ask me, young Kobe. The moniker, "The Shaq Stopper" truly fits Kobe Bryant quite well, don't you think so, semi-sentient?

The greatest closer of this era knows when to feed the hot hand.

That's what LeBron James does best.

[ag101]

Great thread...

Lebron did have an excellent 2009 playoffs but I still think Kobe is the better clutch player..

[Blackfyre]

Really good job here. I saved these stats to my HDD. Very useful.

[JordansBulls]

Kobe's the greatest closer.
LeBron's the second greatest closer.
Wade is the third greatest closer.

That sums it up quite nicely.

Just to play Devil's Advocate..

How can Kobe Bryant be the greatest closer of this era when Kobe Bryant turned into Kobrick Cryant at the 2004 NBA Finals, and didn't pass Shaq the ball 10-25 times a game, and won the 2004 NBA Finals? He's quite a moron, if you ask me, young Kobe. The moniker, "The Shaq Stopper" truly fits Kobe Bryant quite well, don't you think so, semi-sentient?

The greatest closer of this era knows when to feed the hot hand.

That's what LeBron James does best.

Well truthfully speaking all 3 guys have lost series with HCA in series they were supposed to win but it still doesn't take away from them among one another.

[luvnba]

Kobe
Lebron
Wade

[TheOUTLAW]

LeBron
Wade
Kobe

[semi-sentient]

Just what this thread needed. Thanks.

[insfo]

Well truthfully speaking all 3 guys have lost series with HCA in series they were supposed to win but it still doesn't take away from them among one another.

Just curious, which series with HCA did Wade lose (that his team was supposed to win) ? I'm assuming you are referring to the 7 game ECF loss to the defending NBA champions, Detroit Pistons in 2004-2005 .. in which he played with an injury which caused him to miss Game 6.

or was there another one that I missed?

[semi-sentient]

Bump.

Added Ginobili. Check out that TS%...

It's as high as it is because he is the only player that had more FTA (121) than FGA (86), which is actually pretty damn impressive.

[NYKnick87]

Good add w/ Manu. My only "complaint" is that he's got Duncan and Parker as the two other options on his team. Still pretty sick though.