Geaux_Hawks wrote:D21 wrote:Geaux_Hawks wrote:IMO, this breakdown shows exactly why I think we'll look to keep DJM over Bogi. The ability to be a combo guard offensively, that can defend both guard spots is key. Quin will look to get DJ going the same ways Bukfin can be effective playing off ball and vice versa for Trae.
To me, Quin values versatility. Bogi isn't very versatile and is mostly a shooter. We need shooters, but drafting of Seth Lundy figures to be a way to help replace Bogi off the bench with Griffin primed for a bigger role next year. We've even got Bey as well.
If we can extend DJM, that gives Bufkin enough time to develop and eventually make DJM expendable. Bufkin needs to bulk up and develop his self creation skills. Playing behind Trae and DJM will allow him time to do both.
I might be wrong, but I think you're making a mistake by just looking at the individual qualities, and you don't balance it with the real impact on the floor. Watching the games and checking all kind of stuff like Net rating difference are all showing that Bogi has so much impact on offense, despite his average defense, that it brings far more than most of the other players in this roster.
2021 playoffs, only Hunter was higher than him, and only played the first round (it's something that hurts IMO, he has not played to this level again), and 2023, Bogi still the highest Net rating difference and by far!
2022? I won't even checked, because it was stupid to take conclusions from this MIA series since Capela, Collins and Bogi were injured
At 17M over the next 4 seasons, it's a bargain contract if his injuries have been fixed (we will know next season), he's the one kind of player/contract that you don't trade.
Who says i'm only looking at individual qualities?! In fact, because I have been looking at counting stats and advanced analytics, it is exactly why looking at individual qualities is important. It's why we're able to look at players with great, raw stats on bad teams, and filter out the impact players from the stat padders. Kevin Love is a perfect example of this. His teams in Minnesota were dog water, yet his production was that of an elite player.
The problem with using a stat based argument to show a players value, is that certain stats that account for who's on the floor at the moment, will lead you to believe that player is providing a bigger impact than he really is. It will have you looking at the tree and not the forest ahead. Which is why you glossed over 2022, but counted 2021(multiple players dealing with injuries in both years, Bogi included). I don't think you would go out on a limb and say Trae's negative rating was the reason we lost though. What's weird about your argument is that in 2021, Kevin Huerter had a higher eFG%, Higher AST/TO ratio, TS%, with a lower USG%, and somehow had a lower OFFRTG. You're overstating Bogi's impact for us in the playoffs because the bar isn't very high to begin with.
I'm not saying Bogi isn't a good player to have on his contract. I'm saying we need to fix our overlap issue, and Bogi's probably got enough value to help bring something else back due to his contract and the new CBA. His strongest quality as a bench shooter is valued throughout the league. That said, he's not untouchable.
Bad online communication here
Like I said, "I might be wrong", I just see that I wrote a bit to fast and didn't wrote "looks like you're making a mistake..."
I know what you've checked, I was pointing to your post looking like it was all on individual qualities only
Now, like I said, I didn't only checked Net rating, I clearly wrote "
Watching the games and checking all kind of stuff..."
The only reason I let 2022 aside is what I said, we played with injured players. It is not the same thing than 2021 for example where injured (except Bogi) were not playing (Hunter, Reddish, Dunn)
And 2023 is more important IMO as they were healthy, and Bogi was clearly the one with whom the team played its best bball, and the stats match what I saw in games
It's not because Bogi was coming from the bench that is was really a bench player, he most of the time was playing a lot in the 4th like starters, or like Ginobili was doing. And his impact is wider than just his shooting, that's why even on bad night where he's not hitting most of his shots, opponent defense continue to be focus on him and the four other guys continues to play better with him, which explain why he got a good Net rating. The team was simply performing well with him even on bad shooting, and even better if he was hitting his shots.
