2024 NBA Draft Thread

[snowman]

knowing our cap situation, I doubt we keep the 30th pick but instead trade it for a 2nd this year and a future 2nd.

[165bows]

I don't see a guard who might be available at #30 who is better than Pritchard, Springer, Davison or even Madar. Plus they just extended Jrue and will almost certainly extend White.

So I think they will go big. I'd be looking at stretch 4-5 types who can rebound.

I feel like they could use this type of guy to their advantage, since they have more shooting bigs than almost any other team.

Oso Ighodaro

I have been confused for a couple of years now about why I’m not more bought in on Oso Ighodaro. Big men who can pass are one of my greatest draft weaknesses; I almost always believe way too much on those kinds of prospects. With that in mind, I figured that now might be a good time to dive back into the Ighodaro tape to see if a fresh look might help me either buy in more or (at the very least) better understand and define my previous position.

Let’s start with the positives. Ighodaro isn’t just the best passing big man in this class; he’s one of the best passers in the class point blank, regardless of position. He hits cutters at an insane rate when passing out of the post, he can execute a dribble hand-off as well as anyone, and he even dimes guys up as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll. I knew what kind of a passer he was before I began this latest deep dive, and if anything, I’m even more bought-in now than I was before after watching him dish out gems left and right:


The problem for me with Ighodaro is the rest of his offensive game. Given that he’s a complete non-shooter (he took a grand total of seven jump shots this season, per Synergy, and went 2-of-7), he’ll have to be surrounded by four shooters to really be effective. I don’t exactly buy into him becoming a shooter in the longer term, either, given his 62.3% mark from the charity stripe.

That lack of shooting essentially boxes him in as a small-ball center, and at 6’9”, he’ll be losing the size battle pretty much every time he steps on the floor. For a small-ball big, he’s nowhere near effective enough in transition—Ighodaro ranks in the 31st percentile in transition, and he still grades out as below-average (45th percentile) on transition possessions plus assists. Part of that was admittedly by design—the Marquette offense with Ighodaro and Tyler Kolek running the show was at its best in the halfcourt. However, I worry about Ighodaro’s ability to contribute offensively when opponents give him space, which will certainly happen more consistently at the NBA level.

I ultimately came away from this latest film dive slightly higher on Ighodaro, mostly due to his defense. Despite his relative lack of size at center, he’s a solid help defender who moves his feet well and holds up well when forced to defend one-on-one (68th percentile on post-up defense and 58th percentile on isos, per Synergy). He’s also a good defensive playmaker, racking up 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, with a 5.0% block percentage over his four years at Marquette and a 1.8% steal percentage that both bode well for his ability to make plays defensively at the next level. Still, I can’t quite get there with the notion of Ighodaro as a first round pick—his offensive holes concern me too much, even if his exceptional passing makes me constantly want to move him up my board.

Jonathan Mogbo

It’s been a long college journey for Jonathan Mogbo to get to this point. He worked his way up the college ranks, from Independence Community College in Kansas to a JuCo season at Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College to Missouri State last season. He finally had his big breakout year for San Francisco this year, where he dominated the West Coast Conference.

Mogbo’s basic box score stats are astounding enough on their own—14.2 points per game, 10.1 rebounds per game, 3.6 assists per game, and 1.6 steals per game in just under 29 minutes a night. His advanced numbers are somehow even more staggering. Mogbo ranked in the 94th percentile in overall offense, the 97th percentile in possessions plus assists, the 98th percentile in both transition and transition possessions plus assists, the 84th percentile on cuts, the 88th percentile on post-ups, the 83rd percentile on putbacks, the 74th percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man, and the 94th percentile in at-rim scoring. He can keep the ball humming when he doesn’t have a chance to score, and he fully capitalizes when he can:


Some of the issues with Mogbo’s potential NBA translation are the same as Ighodaro’s—his lack of a jump shot and lack of center size at 6’8” pigeonholes him a bit as a small-ball center or situational power forward alongside a shooting big. Ultimately, though, I’m more willing to buy in on Mogbo, given what he does without the ball in his hands—even if he’s a cut below Ighodaro as a passer. His insanely efficient transition play and activity as a cutter give me more faith in Mogbo’s ability to fit into an NBA scheme. Given the gap in perception between the two as well—Ighodaro was 45th in the latest $DRFT rankings while Mogbo failed to crack the Top 60—I’d be much more willing to bet on Mogbo late in the draft (and on him continuing his upward trajectory) rather than taking an earlier swing on Ighodaro.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/2024-nba-draft-editors-notes-volume-395

[Smart2Nesmith43]

That Jonathan Mogbo sounds like a guy the Celtics would love to have on their summer league roster as an UDFA

[playa-hater]

I feel some prospects in today's game that might not even be drafted would have been lottery picks 20 years ago.. The "skills" and "game" is definitely evolving and growing so much. That and 300 million contracts has everyone "going for it"

[165bows]

That Jonathan Mogbo sounds like a guy the Celtics would love to have on their summer league roster as an UDFA

Yeah I could see that for sure - I’m wondering if their success with these udfa types could outweigh their lack of playing time opportunities. At any rate (similar to Banton) they have a spot or two for someone long and rangy that can’t shoot and I love a guy that finishes at the rim so I’d be all about it.

Good news he’s only 22, sometimes guys with that type of resume show up at the draft at 24-25 or whatever.

Tldr definitely steal a Brandon Clarke type if possible.

[playa-hater]

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I am happy to announce Tankathon has followed my lead.. Take that you b*tches!!

[Curmudgeon]

That Jonathan Mogbo sounds like a guy the Celtics would love to have on their summer league roster as an UDFA

My binkie DJ Burns, Jr. will be undrafted. Best passer in college basketball.

[Celts17Pride]

knowing our cap situation, I doubt we keep the 30th pick but instead trade it for a 2nd this year and a future 2nd.

Just makes sense. Celtics are not going to get anyone at 30 that they can't get a similar player at 45.

[Hal14]

knowing our cap situation, I doubt we keep the 30th pick but instead trade it for a 2nd this year and a future 2nd.

Just makes sense. Celtics are not going to get anyone at 30 that they can't get a similar player at 45.

Agreed.

Over the past few years, the way the draft usually works is the top 10-15 or so guys are above the rest. Some of those top 10-15 guys might slip to pick 19 or 20 or so.

But generally, by the time you get to pick 23, 24, etc. by that time the top end talent is off the board. And for the most part, there's little separation between the guys who will go in picks 21 - 44 or so.

This year is no different.

So why take someone at 30, who you have to give a guaranteed contract, a full roster spot and you have to pay them more money, more guaranteed years, etc. ? Plus if you take a guy that high, there is also more expectations that will be placed on that player. More pressure to give them playing time, more scrutiny if they don't pan out.

And this is is a celtics team that has depth and talent at every position. It's an uphill battle for any rookie to come in and get mins on this team.

[brackdan70]

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I am happy to announce Tankathon has followed my lead.. Take that you b*tches!!

Yeah it seems absurd that he isn’t mocked in the first round a lot of places. I’d have a hard time passing if he is there at 30.

[Hal14]

Idk with Brad at the top they've gone for younger athletic guys in terms of who they've used picks on. Seems like the FO and Brad are really happy to work the UDFA type of market for older guys and for better or worse, draft teenagers.

Right. According to tankathon the draft ages of Stevens' picks until now has been: 18.87 (Begarin), 19.71 (Davison) and 19.30 (Walsh) and like you said their most appealing quality was their athleticism. All of them have plus length for their position as well. Maybe this is just a small sample coincidence but considering how methodical the Celtics front office have been with everything else, I find that hard to believe.

There are a lot of upper classmen currently projected to be drafted right now so using those criteria on the 2024 draft narrows the field of candidates quite a lot.Using tankathon's mock draft and excluding top-20 projected guys that the Celtics probably won't be able to get, here are all the teenagers left at the time of the draft:

Spoiler:

Tyler Smith
Johnny Furphy
Carlton Carrington
Izan Almansa
Melvin Ajinca
Ulrich Chomche
Juan Núñez
Pacome Dadiet

Some of those guys have decent length like Almansa and Smith but really the only two that have plus length for their position are Carlton Carrington and Ulrich Chomche. So I definitely think that Chomche will get a long, hard look from the Celtics.

Yes, Brad's playbook has been to draft an 18/19 yr old kid with good athleticism in the 2nd round (Begarin, Davison, Walsh). And he might stick with that playbook.

With that being said, that playbook hasn't really worked out so great this far. Begarin hasn't come over yet and it doesn't appear he will anytime soon. JD was on a 2-way for 2 yrs, got basically 0 non-garbage time mins for the big club. Walsh could turn out to be good but as of now, that is very up in the air. He only played a few mins of non-garbage time ball all-season for the big club. I honestly didn't watch a ton of Maine games this season but BK was saying in a different thread during the G league playoffs that he thinks Walsh is still 2 yrs away..

Meanwhile, you look at the guys who actually have worked out well and been able to stick around in the rotation who were drafted by Boston (or scooped up as an UDFA) since 2019:

Grant Williams: 3 year college player, unathletic. Was a good rebounder in college, good defender, strong as hell, showed a little bit of promise as a shooter
Payton Pritchard: 4 year college player. Unathletic. Put up some crazy scoring/shooting/playmaking numbers in college
Sam Hauser: 4 year college player. Unathletic. Was a lethal shooter in college, who could also rebound and score near the basket a bit

Perhaps Brad (and staff) will see this trend and adjust the drafting strategy. He hinted that he might be adjusting the strategy and looking more at older/developed prospects when he spoke to the media after trading for Springer..when he said, "he's older than a lot of the guys we're looking at in the draft"..when talking about the 21 yr old Springer.

[165bows]

Idk with Brad at the top they've gone for younger athletic guys in terms of who they've used picks on. Seems like the FO and Brad are really happy to work the UDFA type of market for older guys and for better or worse, draft teenagers.

Right. According to tankathon the draft ages of Stevens' picks until now has been: 18.87 (Begarin), 19.71 (Davison) and 19.30 (Walsh) and like you said their most appealing quality was their athleticism. All of them have plus length for their position as well. Maybe this is just a small sample coincidence but considering how methodical the Celtics front office have been with everything else, I find that hard to believe.

There are a lot of upper classmen currently projected to be drafted right now so using those criteria on the 2024 draft narrows the field of candidates quite a lot.Using tankathon's mock draft and excluding top-20 projected guys that the Celtics probably won't be able to get, here are all the teenagers left at the time of the draft:

Spoiler:

Tyler Smith
Johnny Furphy
Carlton Carrington
Izan Almansa
Melvin Ajinca
Ulrich Chomche
Juan Núñez
Pacome Dadiet

Some of those guys have decent length like Almansa and Smith but really the only two that have plus length for their position are Carlton Carrington and Ulrich Chomche. So I definitely think that Chomche will get a long, hard look from the Celtics.

Yes, Brad's playbook has been to draft an 18/19 yr old kid with good athleticism in the 2nd round (Begarin, Davison, Walsh). And he might stick with that playbook.

With that being said, that playbook hasn't really worked out so great this far. Begarin hasn't come over yet and it doesn't appear he will anytime soon. JD was on a 2-way for 2 yrs, got basically 0 non-garbage time mins for the big club. Walsh could turn out to be good but as of now, that is very up in the air. He only played a few mins of non-garbage time ball all-season for the big club. I honestly didn't watch a ton of Maine games this season but BK was saying in a different thread during the G league playoffs that he thinks Walsh is still 2 yrs away..

Meanwhile, you look at the guys who actually have worked out well and been able to stick around in the rotation who were drafted by Boston (or scooped up as an UDFA) since 2019:

Grant Williams: 3 year college player, unathletic. Was a good rebounder in college, good defender, strong as hell, showed a little bit of promise as a shooter
Payton Pritchard: 4 year college player. Unathletic. Put up some crazy scoring/shooting/playmaking numbers in college
Sam Hauser: 4 year college player. Unathletic. Was a lethal shooter in college, who could also rebound and score near the basket a bit

Perhaps Brad (and staff) will see this trend and adjust the drafting strategy. He hinted that he might be adjusting the strategy and looking more at older/developed prospects when he spoke to the media after trading for Springer..when he said, "he's older than a lot of the guys we're looking at in the draft"..

I don't know if any of those picks will succeed but I also don't think the marker is whether they get a rotation role in years 1+2. They don't have space for developing teenagers on the main roster so pretty sure the plan was not have them play in Boston, albeit how well they have developed is very up for debate.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

I don't know if any of those picks will succeed but I also don't think the marker is whether they get a rotation role in years 1+2. They don't have space for developing teenagers on the main roster so pretty sure the plan was not have them play in Boston, albeit how well they have developed is very up for debate.

Not just any teenager but all rookies really. The bar to get into the rotation of a 64 win team is insanely high. Lamar Stevens started 25 games on the team with the 5th best record in the league last season and couldn't get any playing time here (not saying he was driving that record at all but clearly he can eat minutes on a successful NBA team which is more than can be said about most rookies). Apart from a couple guys like Wemby which the Celtics are obviously not going to be in a position to draft, nobody is going to walk into this team and get minutes.

It's certainly not a perfect measure but only three guys drafted in 2023 had a VORP of 1.0 or higher (two are undersized bigs that can't shoot and are overrated by that metric and the other is Wemby). Every single rotation guy for Boston was at 1.3 or higher. Even for year two guys that's tough to do. From the 2022 draft, only Banchero, Jalen Williams and Holmgren cleared 1.3 VORP in their sophomore season. To crack such a stacked rotation this early in your NBA career, you basically have to an all star caliber talent which is tough to find at the top of the lottery let alone at the middle of the second round where the Celtics have been picking.

Yeah the Celtics selections haven't done anything at the NBA level yet but literally anybody else they could have picked at those spots wouldn't be getting any minutes either so their lack of minutes doesn't mean those were the wrong picks and a new approach is required.

I get what Hal is saying about Pritchard, Hauser and Grant but they also came into much worse teams with zero depth (hell Boston was a .500 team during Pritchard's first season). Grant Williams (-2.7 BPM, -0.2 VORP) and Pritchard (-0.7 BPM, 0.4 VORP) wouldn't have sniffed the court if they had been rookies this year and Hauser didn't actually get on the floor his first season despite playing on a significantly worse team than the 2024 Celtics. It's an unfair comparison.

[Hal14]

Yeah the Celtics selections haven't done anything at the NBA level yet but literally anybody else they could have picked at those spots wouldn't be getting any minutes either

You don't know that for sure.

so their lack of minutes doesn't mean those were the wrong picks and a new approach is required.

I've done a bunch of research into this. Like with anything, there's outliers, there's exceptions. But if we look at the 2016 - 2022 drafts (not including 2023 since those guys are just rookies and it's too soon to know how well those picks will end up working out..and if we look further back than 2016, the data is not as relevant since those drafts were so long ago) it seems like for the most part, the 2nd rounders and UDFA who have worked out well in the league have been older guys.




-Out of the 49 players I looked at for this, I would say that 28 of them have turned out really well. Out of those players, 26 of them were at least 20 on draft night. Only 2 of them (Naz Reid, Gary Trent Jr) had not yet turned 20 when they were drafted.
-So out of the 19 players who were not yet 20 on draft night, only 2 of them worked out well (10.5% hit rate)
-Out of the 30 players who were 20 or older on draft night, 26 of them worked out well (86.6% hit rate)

[playa-hater]

The Knicks and the Wolves may be getting calls because they are just simply the home team in a crazy environment..

With that said I hope Boston can duplicate the same....

[playa-hater]

The Knicks and the Wolves may be getting calls because they are just simply the home team in a crazy environment..

With that said I hope Boston can duplicate the same....

Oops..wrong thread

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Yeah the Celtics selections haven't done anything at the NBA level yet but literally anybody else they could have picked at those spots wouldn't be getting any minutes either

You don't know that for sure.

VORP is just one metric and it's certainly not perfect but it shows that no-one available when the Celtics picked performed anywhere close to the level of the rotation players for the Celtics this season. Considering it hasn't been Mazzulla's MO to force feed minutes to prospects I don't think it's a stretch to say no one the Celtics could have picked would have played real minutes. But if you think I'm wrong I'm curious to know who you think would have cracked the Celtics rotation.

so their lack of minutes doesn't mean those were the wrong picks and a new approach is required.

I've done a bunch of research into this. Like with anything, there's outliers, there's exceptions. But if we look at the 2016 - 2022 drafts (not including 2023 since those guys are just rookies and it's too soon to know how well those picks will end up working out..and if we look further back than 2016, the data is not as relevant since those drafts were so long ago) it seems like for the most part, the 2nd rounders and UDFA who have worked out well in the league have been older guys.




-Out of the 49 players I looked at for this, I would say that 28 of them have turned out really well. Out of those players, 26 of them were at least 20 on draft night. Only 2 of them (Naz Reid, Gary Trent Jr) had not yet turned 20 when they were drafted.
-So out of the 19 players who were not yet 20 on draft night, only 2 of them worked out well (10.5% hit rate)
-Out of the 30 players who were 20 or older on draft night, 26 of them worked out well (86.6% hit rate)

Not sure what sort of cherry picking is going on here but if you look at 7 drafts you should have 210 second round prospects (not including UDFAs) and not 49. There's also no way the hit rate on the second rounders is 57% so there's definitely some biases in your sample. You also have to weight how much guys hit in your calculus. Jokic (19 when he was drafted, didn't play in the NBA the following season by the way) and 9 busts is still more valuable than "hitting" ten straight seasons on Paul Reed caliber guys. So I appreciate the effort but I'm not sure we can take away anything from that analysis.

[Hal14]

Jonathan Mogbo

It’s been a long college journey for Jonathan Mogbo to get to this point. He worked his way up the college ranks, from Independence Community College in Kansas to a JuCo season at Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College to Missouri State last season. He finally had his big breakout year for San Francisco this year, where he dominated the West Coast Conference.

Mogbo’s basic box score stats are astounding enough on their own—14.2 points per game, 10.1 rebounds per game, 3.6 assists per game, and 1.6 steals per game in just under 29 minutes a night. His advanced numbers are somehow even more staggering. Mogbo ranked in the 94th percentile in overall offense, the 97th percentile in possessions plus assists, the 98th percentile in both transition and transition possessions plus assists, the 84th percentile on cuts, the 88th percentile on post-ups, the 83rd percentile on putbacks, the 74th percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man, and the 94th percentile in at-rim scoring. He can keep the ball humming when he doesn’t have a chance to score, and he fully capitalizes when he can:


Some of the issues with Mogbo’s potential NBA translation are the same as Ighodaro’s—his lack of a jump shot and lack of center size at 6’8” pigeonholes him a bit as a small-ball center or situational power forward alongside a shooting big. Ultimately, though, I’m more willing to buy in on Mogbo, given what he does without the ball in his hands—even if he’s a cut below Ighodaro as a passer. His insanely efficient transition play and activity as a cutter give me more faith in Mogbo’s ability to fit into an NBA scheme. Given the gap in perception between the two as well—Ighodaro was 45th in the latest $DRFT rankings while Mogbo failed to crack the Top 60—I’d be much more willing to bet on Mogbo late in the draft (and on him continuing his upward trajectory) rather than taking an earlier swing on Ighodaro.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/2024-nba-draft-editors-notes-volume-395

Brad *definitely* reads this board lol

Read on Twitter

[165bows]

Jonathan Mogbo

It’s been a long college journey for Jonathan Mogbo to get to this point. He worked his way up the college ranks, from Independence Community College in Kansas to a JuCo season at Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College to Missouri State last season. He finally had his big breakout year for San Francisco this year, where he dominated the West Coast Conference.

Mogbo’s basic box score stats are astounding enough on their own—14.2 points per game, 10.1 rebounds per game, 3.6 assists per game, and 1.6 steals per game in just under 29 minutes a night. His advanced numbers are somehow even more staggering. Mogbo ranked in the 94th percentile in overall offense, the 97th percentile in possessions plus assists, the 98th percentile in both transition and transition possessions plus assists, the 84th percentile on cuts, the 88th percentile on post-ups, the 83rd percentile on putbacks, the 74th percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man, and the 94th percentile in at-rim scoring. He can keep the ball humming when he doesn’t have a chance to score, and he fully capitalizes when he can:


Some of the issues with Mogbo’s potential NBA translation are the same as Ighodaro’s—his lack of a jump shot and lack of center size at 6’8” pigeonholes him a bit as a small-ball center or situational power forward alongside a shooting big. Ultimately, though, I’m more willing to buy in on Mogbo, given what he does without the ball in his hands—even if he’s a cut below Ighodaro as a passer. His insanely efficient transition play and activity as a cutter give me more faith in Mogbo’s ability to fit into an NBA scheme. Given the gap in perception between the two as well—Ighodaro was 45th in the latest $DRFT rankings while Mogbo failed to crack the Top 60—I’d be much more willing to bet on Mogbo late in the draft (and on him continuing his upward trajectory) rather than taking an earlier swing on Ighodaro.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/2024-nba-draft-editors-notes-volume-395

Brad *definitely* reads this board lol

Read on Twitter

Some random guy's scouting report with some clips. If they got some additional picks he's promising enough of a mold to take a second round swing on.

After playing two seasons of JUCO basketball as an underclassman, Mogbo brought competitive fire and fundamentals to his first opportunity at the D-1 level. After finishing as a top-5 offensive rebounder and shot blocker in the Missouri Valley Conference, Mogbo transferred to the Bay Area, committing to Coach Gerlufsen and the staff of the University of San Francisco.

As of 16 March 2023, Mogbo leads the WCC in total rebounding, steals, and field goal percentage, while taking on a role as the team’s leader, which put him on NBA radars.

Physical Profile

At 6’8”, Mogbo is a bruiser who’ll primarily play as a five at the next level. He has a 7-foot-plus wingspan that makes up for the lack of size. However, the plus value is in his excellent upper body strength combined with his fluid hips. This makes him mobile while being able to handle physical contact consistently.

Mogbo is a great athlete who gets quickly off the ground with his vertical pop. Combined with his huge hands, he has the tools to be an above-average roll man at the next level. A potential game-changer in the above-mentioned areas is Mogbo’s excellent burst which opens up the ability to guard multiple positions at the next level.

Defense

One crucial trait Mogbo will offer an NBA team is to guard the perimeter effectively. In a switch-heavy NBA game, the ability to defend in space laterally becomes more important, especially considering that downhill driving is still one of the most used weapons to collapse a defense.

In Mogbo’s case, he recognizes when to rotate and when to keep up with his assignments. He slides his feet well on defense; the most important thing that stands out is his ability to maintain his balance at all costs.

https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/jonathan-mogbo-scouting-report

[Hal14]

Yeah the Celtics selections haven't done anything at the NBA level yet but literally anybody else they could have picked at those spots wouldn't be getting any minutes either

You don't know that for sure.

VORP is just one metric and it's certainly not perfect but it shows that no-one available when the Celtics picked performed anywhere close to the level of the rotation players for the Celtics this season. Considering it hasn't been Mazzulla's MO to force feed minutes to prospects I don't think it's a stretch to say no one the Celtics could have picked would have played real minutes. But if you think I'm wrong I'm curious to know who you think would have cracked the Celtics rotation.

so their lack of minutes doesn't mean those were the wrong picks and a new approach is required.

I've done a bunch of research into this. Like with anything, there's outliers, there's exceptions. But if we look at the 2016 - 2022 drafts (not including 2023 since those guys are just rookies and it's too soon to know how well those picks will end up working out..and if we look further back than 2016, the data is not as relevant since those drafts were so long ago) it seems like for the most part, the 2nd rounders and UDFA who have worked out well in the league have been older guys.




-Out of the 49 players I looked at for this, I would say that 28 of them have turned out really well. Out of those players, 26 of them were at least 20 on draft night. Only 2 of them (Naz Reid, Gary Trent Jr) had not yet turned 20 when they were drafted.
-So out of the 19 players who were not yet 20 on draft night, only 2 of them worked out well (10.5% hit rate)
-Out of the 30 players who were 20 or older on draft night, 26 of them worked out well (86.6% hit rate)

Not sure what sort of cherry picking is going on here but if you look at 7 drafts you should have 210 second round prospects (not including UDFAs) and not 49. There's also no way the hit rate on the second rounders is 57% so there's definitely some biases in your sample. You also have to weight how much guys hit in your calculus. Jokic (19 when he was drafted, didn't play in the NBA the following season by the way) and 9 busts is still more valuable than "hitting" ten straight seasons on Paul Reed caliber guys. So I appreciate the effort but I'm not sure we can take away anything from that analysis.

I work a full time job. I don't have time to go through all 210 2nd round picks

49 is a large enough sample size. It's not cherry picked. If it was, I wouldn't have included guys like Naz Reid and Carsen Edwards who go against the point I am trying to make.

Sorry it doesn't fit your narrative. I used to think young upside projects were the way to go in the 2nd round but the data is not supporting that.

I already said that I looked at the drafts since 2016 and did not go further back than that because if you are going that far back (Jokic was drafted in 2014) it's such a long time ago that the data is less relevant to today's game.

One reason why the data from drafts that were 10+ yrs ago is less relevant today is because scouting has gotten a lot better in the past 10 yrs. Teams have gotten better at scouting. Teams now have like 5x more people working in their scouting department. And there's more tools, more technology, more advanced stats to help front offices make more informed decisions than ever before. More access to film, more access to stats. All players now have to report to the combine to get measured and to do strength/agility testing so teams have more info, more accurate info to go off. Teams have learned from their mistakes with guys like Jokic, Giannis, Gobert and Draymond - they're getting better at scouting so that guys like them are less likely to fall as far in the draft.

That's why teams know they're not trying to draft an MVP in the 2nd round. You're just trying to find a guy who can play a role, contribute a little but here and there off the bench..someone who can round out the roster, give you some depth, some decent minutes on a cheap contract - especially on a team like with the Celtics where you're spending a *ton* of money on the top 4 or 5 guys so you really need to get your bang for your buck and find some decent players on cheap contracts by hitting on some 2nd round picks.

Also, think about the odds here. The odds of hitting on a guy like Jokic in the 2nd round are like 1 in a million. *Very* bad odds. Much smarter drafting to be realistic, play more realistic odds, try and hit a single with a guy like Caleb Martin, Kenrich Williams, Sam Hauser, Austin Reaves, Xavier Tillman, Terance Mann, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Keon Ellis, etc. (guys who can move the needle and be a solid contributor on the margins of a roster) rather than trying to hit a home run on a guy like Jokic that only has a 1 in a million chance of happening and if you don't hit on that pick, it's a waste of a pick.

Realistically, any 2nd round pick is a long shot to make it in the NBA. The ones who make it are generally guys like the ones I just mentioned (Caleb Martin, Kenrich Williams, Sam Hauser, Austin Reaves, Xavier Tillman, Terance Mann, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Keon Ellis, etc.). A guy like Jokic is an outlier.

And again, Brad said after the Springer trade that "he (Springer, age 21) is younger than a lot of the guys we're looking at in the draft." And the first guy we brought in for a pre-draft workout (Mogbo) is 22. So I'm not really going out on a limb here..

It's a fun discussion