A theory on why Sam Hauser crushes on Net Rating

[Gant]

Read on Twitter

As Sean Grande points out, Hauser leads the playoffs in Net Rating, and he lead the regular season in that same stat. A big part of this is because he plays for the Celtics who win by sizable margins. But why Sam? There are other Celtics playing too, but it's always Sam who ends up being Mr. Net Rating.


Here's what I think might be happening. Is this possible?:

In the predatory NBA, teams regularly and ruthlessly target weak defenders. This is great when it works and it often does, but the downside is targeting takes you out of your regular offensive flow.

When other teams play Boston, they see formidable defenders everywhere- White, Holiday, Tatum, Brown, Horford, etc, there's nobody to target. Then the Celtics sub in Hauser. Invariably the opponents' eyes light up, because... finally, here's an opportunity.

The problem is, Hauser is not at all a weak defender, which leads to the opposition getting the worst of both worlds. They take themselves out of their offense to target a player who plays good defense. They've lost spacing, ball movement, time on the shot clock, and get out of sync. Then Sam more often then not, frustrates them anyway.

Result? See Sean Grande's tweet above.

[BK_2020]

It's really pretty simple. Hauser rarely plays together with Jaylen Brown. He's played only 57 possessions with Jaylen for +13.5. His no Jaylen time is more than twice as much at 116 possessions, during which the Celtics have been an eye-popping +49 per 100.

[BK_2020]

Pritchard without Jaylen - 128 possessions for +47.5 / 100
Pritchard with Jaylen - 108 possessions for +1.8 / 100

[BK_2020]

Horford with Jaylen - 215 possessions at +11.1 /100
Horford without Jaylen - 78 possessions at +51.1 /100

[BK_2020]

Basically your +/- in these small samples will be determined entirely by how big a share of your time on court is shared with Jaylen Brown or not.

[brackdan70]

Might be something to that. Also could be a bit simpler in that he is a good bench player and most of the time he is in with a lineup that is much better than the opposition.

[Fencer reregistered]

Might be something to that. Also could be a bit simpler in that he is a good bench player and most of the time he is in with a lineup that is much better than the opposition.

Yep. If he's not playing with Brown then he's probably playing with Tatum, who is the best player on the floor. He's probably often playing with the second-best player on the floor too.

[Fencer reregistered]

Read on Twitter

As Sean Grande points out, Hauser leads the playoffs in Net Rating, and he lead the regular season in that same stat. A big part of this is because he plays for the Celtics who win by sizable margins. But why Sam? There are other Celtics playing too, but it's always Sam who ends up being Mr. Net Rating.


Here's what I think might be happening. Is this possible?:

In the predatory NBA, teams regularly and ruthlessly target weak defenders. This is great when it works and it often does, but the downside is targeting takes you out of your regular offensive flow.

When other teams play Boston, they see formidable defenders everywhere- White, Holiday, Tatum, Brown, Horford, etc, there's nobody to target. Then the Celtics sub in Hauser. Invariably the opponents' eyes light up, because... finally, here's an opportunity.

The problem is, Hauser is not at all a weak defender, which leads to the opposition getting the worst of both worlds. They take themselves out of their offense to target a player who plays good defense. They've lost spacing, ball movement, time on the shot clock, and get out of sync. Then Sam more often then not, frustrates them anyway.

Result? See Sean Grande's tweet above.

That point has often been suggested before. I think it has a lot of merit.

So do the lineup arguments, in that he usually plays with Tatum (!) and another Celtic starter.

[threrf23]

It's probably a factor.

But I also think that his contributions are underrated, particularly if judged in relation to his usage. Regular season, amongst rotation players, only Al & Kornet had lower usage. He ranked 6th in FGAs per minute and dead last ofc in 2pt FGAs per minute.

But I also think it's just about the value of role playing on a team filled with stars. I would hypothesize that our players are most effective when they know exactly what their role is on a given possession. When Hauser is playing alongside one of the Jays, there is no question as to who plays what role on offense, and there are fewer questions regarding who takes the ball up court and initiates our offense.

Amongst player pairs logging > 400 minutes in the reg season, our top player pairs by net rating were: White/Pritchard, Tatum/Kornet, White/Hauser, Pritchard/Hauser, Tatum/Pritchard, Kornet/Pritchard. 16 of our top 17 player pairs include one of Hauser/Pritchard/Kornet/Al, our lower usage/lower status guys.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=MIN*G*400&GroupQuantity=2&Season=2023-24&TeamID=1610612738&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=NET_RATING

[sam_I_am]

Read on Twitter

As Sean Grande points out, Hauser leads the playoffs in Net Rating, and he lead the regular season in that same stat. A big part of this is because he plays for the Celtics who win by sizable margins. But why Sam? There are other Celtics playing too, but it's always Sam who ends up being Mr. Net Rating.


Here's what I think might be happening. Is this possible?:

In the predatory NBA, teams regularly and ruthlessly target weak defenders. This is great when it works and it often does, but the downside is targeting takes you out of your regular offensive flow.

When other teams play Boston, they see formidable defenders everywhere- White, Holiday, Tatum, Brown, Horford, etc, there's nobody to target. Then the Celtics sub in Hauser. Invariably the opponents' eyes light up, because... finally, here's an opportunity.

The problem is, Hauser is not at all a weak defender, which leads to the opposition getting the worst of both worlds. They take themselves out of their offense to target a player who plays good defense. They've lost spacing, ball movement, time on the shot clock, and get out of sync. Then Sam more often then not, frustrates them anyway.

Result? See Sean Grande's tweet above.

Net rating is not the definitive stat many here suggest it is at evaluating an individual player in my opinion. For example, JB dominated the first quarter last night but his net rating was relatively poor because he did it when the Cavs have their best lineup out there and were most competitive. It is pretty typical of most NBA games for score to be close after 1 quarter and it’s pretty typical for Celtics to feature Brown at start of games. Not saying net rating doesn’t shine a light on the fact that JB has some flaws in his game despite gaudy box scores relative to say Tatum because it does. However, it is also heavily influenced by coaches strategy.

The Celtics usual game plan is to have Tatum and White lead a second unit against other teams second units and this is when Tatum steps up and dominates. Hauser is a huge key to that unit because with Tatum attacking and always finding him, defenses have to stick to him. This also opens up the floor for the incredibly smart and opportunistic White. Hauser’s massive plus minus has everything to do with the chemistry of the second unit and the talent advantage they have against just about every team in the league except for perhaps OKC and Minnesota who have deeper benches.

All you have to do is watch when Hauser plays with end of bench against other teams end of bench….the huge plus minus usually seen vanishes. He is a great role player on this team but he can’t generate that net rating on his own.

[jinx8402]

Might be something to that. Also could be a bit simpler in that he is a good bench player and most of the time he is in with a lineup that is much better than the opposition.

lol, you could have made 1 post instead of 4 separate ones.

That said, I think this is more rotation based than anything. Tatum typically subs out first along with Jrue, with the other team largely still with their 1st team out there. Pritchard and horford (or Luke now with KP out) come in. Tatum comes back in when teams the opposing teams are largely about to bring in their second unit and he feasts. Hauser comes in a possession or two earlier which is why there is a small sample size of him playing with Brown.

[brackdan70]

Might be something to that. Also could be a bit simpler in that he is a good bench player and most of the time he is in with a lineup that is much better than the opposition.

lol, you could have made 1 post instead of 4 separate ones.

That said, I think this is more rotation based than anything. Tatum typically subs out first along with Jrue, with the other team largely still with their 1st team out there. Pritchard and horford (or Luke now with KP out) come in. Tatum comes back in when teams the opposing teams are largely about to bring in their second unit and he feasts. Hauser comes in a possession or two earlier which is why there is a small sample size of him playing with Brown.

Not sure how the extra posts happened. I just see the one.

[neno]

"People can't stop staring at the pinstripes"
Sam's real strength is mind games
Hey whats that?
Boom 3 is ya face
Misstep
3
Late close out
3
Rule by fear

[Ed Pinkney]

It is pretty crazy, I remember seeing him get absolutely destroyed on defense in either a summer league or preseason game at the start of his rookie season and thinking there is no way this guy is an NBA player.

Now, I see a competent defensive player. He has enough size, effort, and IQ to be a functional part of a good team defense.

[Bad-Thoma]

Basically your +/- in these small samples will be determined entirely by how big a share of your time on court is shared with Jaylen Brown or not.

Stop trolling Stan you bully

[BK_2020]

Might be something to that. Also could be a bit simpler in that he is a good bench player and most of the time he is in with a lineup that is much better than the opposition.

Yeah but that theory doesn't necessarily conflict with my findings.

[jinx8402]

Might be something to that. Also could be a bit simpler in that he is a good bench player and most of the time he is in with a lineup that is much better than the opposition.

lol, you could have made 1 post instead of 4 separate ones.

That said, I think this is more rotation based than anything. Tatum typically subs out first along with Jrue, with the other team largely still with their 1st team out there. Pritchard and horford (or Luke now with KP out) come in. Tatum comes back in when teams the opposing teams are largely about to bring in their second unit and he feasts. Hauser comes in a possession or two earlier which is why there is a small sample size of him playing with Brown.

Not sure how the extra posts happened. I just see the one.

Not that particular post, but he made 4 posts in a row with different JB on/off stats.

[brackdan70]

lol, you could have made 1 post instead of 4 separate ones.

That said, I think this is more rotation based than anything. Tatum typically subs out first along with Jrue, with the other team largely still with their 1st team out there. Pritchard and horford (or Luke now with KP out) come in. Tatum comes back in when teams the opposing teams are largely about to bring in their second unit and he feasts. Hauser comes in a possession or two earlier which is why there is a small sample size of him playing with Brown.

Not sure how the extra posts happened. I just see the one.

Not that particular post, but he made 4 posts in a row with different JB on/off stats.

Oh BK2020. I was confused because he quoted me rather than him.

[jinx8402]

Not sure how the extra posts happened. I just see the one.

Not that particular post, but he made 4 posts in a row with different JB on/off stats.

Oh BK2020. I was confused because he quoted me rather than him.

Oh crap...didn't even realize I did that. Sorry for the confusion, meant to reply to the other guy.

[Sweet Serenity]

BK_2020 when he gets the chance to **** on Jaylen ..